Demographic megatrends, as described in more detail in the book Purpose+Profit (2017, Ter Weijde).

1. NON-CONFIDENTIAL AND ENTIRELY SHAREABLE
Purpose+, Amstel95, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Demographics

2. Visual 41: The human enterprise has gone rogue
Source: World population over 12000 years (various sources), Medium projection – UN population division (2015 revision). Dataset from
www.ourworldindata.org
7.35
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000
Billionpeople
Year
Total human population size, -10,000 till now

3. Visual 42: Africa is set to quadruple its population
1,031,083,666
4,184,577,429
0
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Expectedpopulation
Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania
Source: UN MDG report 2015; World Bank dataset; UNHCR
Expected population growth per continent

4. Visual 43: African population growth will trump all other growth
1272
753
-26
134 74 16
3212
276
-89 66
138
31
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the
Caribbean
Northern America Oceania
2050F 2100F
Source: UN World Population Prospects, 2017 Revision
People that each continent will add, 2050 and 2100

5. Visual 44: The level of displaced people today is the highest ever
Source: World Bank dataset; UNHCR; CNN; NPR
Note: the number of international ’refugees’ is ~21.3mln, rest are internally displaced people still living in their home countries
37.5
39.5
42.7 42
43.3 43.7 42.5
45.2
51.2
59.5
65.3 65.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forcibly displaced people, worldwide, in millions
Highestpointin WWII

6. Visual 45: The German attempt at moral leadership led to isolation
722,265
121,185
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Firsttimeasylumapplicants
Germany France Great Britain Italy Greece Spain Austria Switzerland
Source: Eurostat (2017)

7. Visual 46: The refugee crisis is mostly solved locally
Source: World Bank dataset (2016 data); UNHCR; CNN
2.87
2.86
1.48
1.35
0.98
0.94
0.79
0.67
0.56
0.45
0 1 2 3 4
Turkey
Jordan
Lebanon
Pakistan
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Uganda
Ethiopia
Germany
Syrian Arab Republic
Congo,Dem. Rep.
Refugees per country, millions,top-10,2016
173
89
50
35
27
21
19
19
18
16
0 50 100 150 200
Lebanon
Jordan
Nauru
Turkey
Chad
South Sudan
Sweden
Djibouti
Malta
Mauritania
Refugees per 1,000 inhabitants,top-10,2016

8. Visual 47: Urbanisation at different speeds
Source: World Bank
18
33
82
67
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Percentageofpopulation
Urban population, %, India
Rural population, %, India
China... ...and India
16
57
84
43
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
China, urban population, % of total
China, rural population, % of total

9. Visual 48: The two faces of African urbanisation
Source: World Bank
Northern Africa...
35
65
65
35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Percentageofpopulation
North Africa & Middle East, urban population, % of total
North Africa & Middle East, rural population, % of total
15
38
85
62
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Percentageofpopulation
Sub-Saharan Africa, urban population, % of total
Sub-Saharan Africa, rural population, % of total
...and Sub-Saharan Africa

10. Visual 49: Urbanisation leads to dramatically different environments
Shenzhen in 1970
~30,000 people
Shenzhen in 2017
~10 million people
>300x
Source: Google search, Reddit

11. Visual 50: Mega-cities are becoming normal
37.19
36.06
30.75
27.80
27.71
27.37
24.84
24.50
24.24
23.86
23.44
20.00
19.98
19.89
19.09
17.57
17.38
16.96
16.76
16.69
14.76
14.66
14.17
13.92
13.81
13.26
13.03
12.77
12.67
12.22
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Tokyo
Delhi
Shanghai
Mumbai (Bombay)
Beijing
Dhaka
Karachi
Al-Qahirah (Cairo)
Lagos
Ciudad de México (Mexico City)
São Paulo
Kinshasa
Kinki M.M.A. (Osaka)
New York-Newark
Kolkata (Calcutta)
Guangzhou,Guangdong
Chongqing
Buenos Aires
Manila
Istanbul
Bangalore
Tianjin
Rio de Janeiro
Chennai (Madras)
Jakarta
Los Angeles-Long Beach-SantaAna
Lahore
Hyderabad
Shenzhen
Lima
Expected population in 2030, in millions
Source: UN population division

12. Visual 51: Being educated is the new normal
0
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
9,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Numberofpeople,world
Under 15 No education Incomplete primary Primary Lower secondary Upper secondary Post secondary
Source: www.ourworldindata.org, data source: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

13. Visual 52: The ‘best’ will benefit more than the ‘rest’
Source: McKinsey Global Labour Report, 2012; CPS 2008; Pew Research Centre
$38,833
$45,500
$33,655
$30,000$31,384 $32,299
$30,525
$27,883
$28,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
Silents (in 1965) Early boomers (in 1979) Late boomers (in 1986) Gen Xers (1995) Milennials (in 2013)
Bachelor's degree or more Two-year degree/some college High school graduate
Median annual earnings among full-time workers, aged 25-32, in 2012 dollars

14. Visual 53: Unskilled workers will pool together in developing countries
327 276
154 183
2347
3269
249
415
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2001 Unskilled workers 2030 Unskilled workers 2001 Skilled workers 2030 Skilled workers
Workersinmillions
High-income countries Developing countries
Source: World Bank forecast, Global Economic Prospects 2007: Managing the Next Wave of Globalization (2007)
7.9:1
1.5:1
Pooling of skilled vs unskilled workers, 2001 and 2030

15. Visual 54: Human developmentsees stark different worldwide
Source: UNDP, Human Development Reports. Trends in the Human Development Index, 1990-2015 (website).
0.756
0.523
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Arab States East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

16. Visual 55: HDI is converging over time
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
-10 10 30 50 70 90 110 130
AnnualaveragegrowthrateofHDI,1980-2013
HDI in 1980
Source: UN Development Programme, data downloaded from www.ourworldindata.org,
Malaysia
Australia
United States
Congo
Afghanistan
Mali
Cambodia

17. Visual 56: Life expectancy will go up with another ~12 years
Source: UN Population Prospect: The 2017 Revision (medium-variant projection in dataset)
65
71
77
83
66.96
73.11
79.27
84.6
63.39
68.55
74.7
80.67
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1990-1995 2010-2015 2045-2050 2095-2100
Life expectancy, average Life expectancy, women Life expectancy, men

18. Visual 57: Elderly people will be growing part of our societies
6,550
7,151
7,762 8,084
962
1,400
2,100
3,100
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2017 2030 2050 2100
Totalpopulation,earth
Projected population <60, in millions Projected population >60, in millions
Source: UN Population Prospect: The 2017 Revision (medium-variant projection in dataset)
13%
16%
21%
28%

19. Visual 58: Islam is set to overtake Christianity as the largest faith
31.4% 31.4%
23.2%
29.7%
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
25%
27%
29%
31%
33%
2010 2050
Percentageofworldpopulation
Christians Muslims
2,168,330,000
2,918,070,000
1,599,700,000
2,761,480,000
0
1E+09
2E+09
3E+09
4E+09
5E+09
6E+09
7E+09
8E+09
9E+09
1E+10
2010 2050
Christians Muslims Hindus
Buddhists Jews Folk religions
Other religions Unafiliated
Source: Pew Research Center

20. For more information
• Rens ter Weijde
• Mail: rens@purposeplus.com
• LinkedIn:www.linkedin.com/in/rensterweijde