More details soon. see @dotearth in the meantime http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com Also watch this statement by one of the authors, Raymond Pierrehumbert of Oxford: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-oVDW5QYbI

1. The Climate Reality Gap
in Post-Paris Emissions Paths

2. Countries’
commitments in
Paris were confined
to a short span from
2020 to 2030.
But the heavy liCing
on emissions cuts to
avoid dangerous
warming comes
aCer that.
j.mp/unepco2gap

3. j.mp/unepco2gap
Those proclaiming the
world is on a safe path
presume that technologies
like burning biomass in
power plants and storing
the resulIng CO2 (BECCS
for short) can be massively
deployed later in the
century.

4. j.mp/unepco2gap
And they assume the blue
“safe” emissions drop can
occur even as populaIons
and resource appeItes
soar in Africa and South
Asia.
< 1.75 billion
INDIA (U.N. 2015 projecIon)

5. j.mp/unepco2gap
And they assume the blue
“safe” emissions drop can
occur even as populaIons
and resource appeItes
soar in Africa and South
Asia.
750 million >
NIGERIA (U.N. 2015 projecIon)

6. j.mp/realitygap

7. Without a greatly intensified
innovaIon push on non-CO2 energy
paths, humanity is choosing
profoundly different shores and
climates for 10,000 years to come
and well beyond.

8. Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for mulI-millennial climate and sea-level
change – Clark et al. Nature Climate Change, 2/16/16

9. Sea level for the last 10,000 years Choose a sea level for the next 10,000 years
Sea levels for four emissions tracks.
Highest is 50 meters above today.
Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for mulI-millennial climate and sea-level
change – Clark et al. Nature Climate Change, 2/16/16

10. The Climate Reality Gap
in Post-Paris Emissions Paths
More @dotearth
NyImes.com/dotearth
revkin@nyImes.com