Prediction Markets as Research Games

1. Predic'on
Markets
for
Fun
&
Prophet
Jeffrey
Henning,
Founder
&
VP
of
Strategy

2. 2
12/23
CSAT

3. Predic8on
Markets

4. We
See
Others
Be@er
than
We
See
Ourselves

5. ! Presented
at
2010
AMA
MRC
! Randy
Berkowitz,
VP
of
global
market
research
! Side-­‐by-­‐side
test
of
tradi8onal
survey
methodology
vs.
Infosurv’s
predic8ve
market
method:
! 4
concepts
tested
in
the
health
product
category
! 5
concepts
tested
in
beauty
! Respondents
in
target
market
rated
many
product
a@ributes
! “Traders”
allocated
virtual
dollars
to
concepts
Combe
Case
Study

6. Quotes
from
par8cipants
(recruited
through
a
survey
panel):
! “Excellent
way
to
judge
a
product.
Makes
one
think
of
the
best
logic
and
back
it
up
since
money
is
on
the
line.”
! “I
loved
the
idea!
It
was
a
super
fun
way
to
preview
new
products
and
get
feedback
on
what
other
people
think.”
! “I
loved
it.
You
should
have
more
of
these
to
do.
They’re
fun,
and
it
helps
you
to
learn
more
about
stock
market
trading.”
Source:
Combe
Predic8on
Markets
for
Fun…

7. Predic'on
Market
Survey
General
popula8on
Target
popula8on
What
would
they
do?
What
would
you
do?
Most
important
number
Dozens
of
metrics
Variable
incen8ve
based
on
performance
Flat
incen8ve
3-­‐4
days
3-­‐4
weeks
50%
budget
100%
budget
…and
Prophet
Source:
Combe

8. ! BrainJuicer
ran
215
experiments
across
12
categories
! Awarded
the
Best
Methodology
Award
by
ESOMAR…
in
2005
Old
News…

9. ! Companies
reluctant
to
abandon
norma8ve
databases
! Product
launch
failures
can
be
assigned
many
fathers…
besides
the
concept
test
! Early
adopters
have
expensive-­‐to-­‐reach
target
markets
Old
News…
But
S8ll
News

10. 10
Ques8ons?
Jeffrey
Henning
Founder
&
VP
Strategy
@jhenning
jhenning@vovici.com
1-­‐800-­‐787-­‐8755
x
550