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CCXG Oct 2019 Opening the doors: IEA work on climate change in China and India - Mechthild Wörsdörfer

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CCXG Oct 2019 Opening the doors: IEA work on climate change in China and India - Mechthild Wörsdörfer

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CCXG Oct 2019 Opening the doors: IEA work on climate change in China and India - Mechthild Wörsdörfer

  1. 1. IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Opening the doors: IEA work on climate change in China and India Mechthild Wörsdörfer, Director, Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks, IEA CCXG Global Forum on the Environment and Climate Change Paris, 2 October 2019
  2. 2. IEA 2019. All rights reserved. 2018 – a remarkable year for energy Annual change in global primary energy demand, 2011-18 Global energy demand last year grew by 2.3%, the fastest pace this decade. 100 200 300 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mtoe
  3. 3. IEA 2019. All rights reserved. The new geography of energy… In 2000, more than 40% of global demand was in Europe & North America and some 20% in developing economies in Asia. By 2040, this situation is completely reversed Energy demand 2000 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Southeast Asia Middle East Mtoe 2001 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Southeast Asia Middle East Mtoe 2002 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Southeast Asia Middle East Mtoe 2003 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Southeast Asia Middle East Mtoe 2004 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Southeast Asia Middle East Mtoe 2005 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States European Union China Africa India Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2006 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States China European Union Africa India Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2007 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States China European Union Africa India Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2008 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 United States China European Union Africa India Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2009 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union Africa India Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2010 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2011 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2012 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2013 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2014 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2015 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2016 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2017 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2018 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2019 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2020 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2021 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2022 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2023 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2024 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2025 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2026 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2027 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2028 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2029 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States European Union India Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2030 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2031 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2032 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2033 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2034 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2035 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2036 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2037 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2038 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2039 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India European Union Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2040 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India Africa European Union Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe 2040 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 China United States India Africa European Union Middle East Southeast Asia Mtoe
  4. 4. IEA 2019. All rights reserved. The IEA Family keeps growing • 30 member countries • 8 association countries • The IEA Family now covers almost 75% of global energy demand
  5. 5. IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Introduction to the Clean Energy Transitions Programme • Launched in November 2017, the CETP provides cutting-edge support to accelerate global clean energy transitions • Priority countries: • 4 modalities: - high-level engagement and collaboration, - joint learning and knowledge exchanges, - enhancing policy making and implementation, - strengthening multi-lateral dialogue • Activities across 6 work streams: data & statistics, energy efficiency, electricity, policy advice & modelling, sectoral work, and innovation • Supported by 14 IEA members and/or other organisations iea.org/cetp
  6. 6. IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Example of CETP Deep-dive: A strong and sustainable cooperation with China • In 2015, China became one of the first countries to activate Association status with the IEA • IEA signed a 3-year work program with the National Energy Administration in 2017. • IEA signed MoUs with major Ministries: - Ministry of Science and Technology (2015) - Ministry of Ecology and Environment (2018) - National Development and Reform Commission (2018) • IEA Clean Energy Transition Programme is supporting key projects on: National emissions trading scheme (ETS), Power system transformation, Establishing gas market, 2050 low-carbon strategy, District cooling.
  7. 7. IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Integrating the ETS within a complex energy policy mix • Carbon pricing plays a critical role in the policy mix for energy sector decarbonisation • However, it is not a silver bullet policy; a comprehensive policy package is needed. • Power reform is key for the functioning of the ETS, but ETS can provide the appropriate signals to achieve full-functioning power reform. • China is proposing a new ETS design, creating a new momentum showing that ETS could fit into any country’s climate governance, regardless of its economic development circumstances • Establishment of National Emissions Trading System: A design and implementation in three phases Foundation construction •2018: National data reporting system, registration and trading system Simulation run •2019: Power generation industry quota simulation Deepening and improvement •2020: Carry out spot trading in quotas between the power generation industry trade body
  8. 8. IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Power sector is the largest potential of CO2 emission reductions Power sector decarbonisation can contribute to more than 40% of Chinese emissions reductions by 2040 Including the 8 industrial sector increases the CO2 emissions coverage, expanding the opportunities for more economic rational decisions (about 16%). Chinese CO2 emissions 2 4 6 8 10 2010 2020 2030 2040 GtCO2 New Policies Scenario Sustainable Development Scenario Power Sector decarbonisation (excluding electricity savings) Big industrial sectors + aviation (direct and through electricity savings) Transport, Buildings, Other industries, Agriculture CO2 reductions in power sector due to electricity savings in other sectors 42% 16% 24% 18% Source: WEO2017
  9. 9. IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Ongoing IEA work and planned activities in China (2018-2020) • Objectives: Provide technical support to Chinese policymakers with robust analysis and policy recommendations • 2018: • Analytical work: Report to China on international lessons around ETS interactions with energy policies • Workshops: Participated to several international and domestic workshops and partnered with China at COP24 China Pavilion official side-event on China ETS • 2019-20: Ongoing and upcoming analyses include: - Capacity building activities and workshops on China ETS - Analytical work: - Stringency of China’s allowance allocation benchmarks and evolution towards 2050 - Power sector structure implications for China’s national ETS in mid- to long-term
  10. 10. IEA 2019. All rights reserved. India: Importance of integrated responses to address air quality, energy access and low carbon transition challenges • Efforts to reduce air pollution in India can be strongly supported by policies to achieve energy access and to reduce CO2 emissions, making an integrated response more cost effective. • In an integrated scenario applied to India, energy access and decarbonisation policies contribute as much as 30% of SO2 emissions reductions and 60% of NOx and PM 2.5 emissions reductions. • The uptake of clean energy technologies can lead to substantial reductions in emissions of air pollutants that would otherwise be challenging to tackle through air pollution policies alone.
  11. 11. IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Exploiting climate and air quality policy synergies in India • In July 2019, IEA started a project with the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC) to assess how an increasingly integrated policy response to clean- energy transition challenges could bring multiple benefits for India. • IEA Project objectives: Enhance technical capacity support to for the Government and research community • Working alongside the government and local think tanks to ensure technical knowledge exchange Development of analytical insights for India’s stated policy implementation • Analysis of overlaps and synergies between different policy objectives and identifying where and how specific policies may have other energy-transition co- benefits to be maximised • Assessing appropriate sequencing of different energy transition policies to achieve overall outcomes with most net benefits.
  12. 12. IEA 2019. All rights reserved. End use electrification and electricity carbon intensity in India India Timing and synchronisation of electrification and power sector decarbonisation is important to achieve most optimal local pollutants and CO2 emissions reduction benefits 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 CarbonIntensityingCO2/kwh Share Electricity Share in TFC Power Sector Carbon Intensity NPS
  13. 13. IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Ongoing IEA work and planned activities in India (2019-2020) • Strengthen collaboration with key institutions • Scoping workshop in partnership with the Indian government to engage energy- climate-environment nexus stakeholders to refine analytical focus • A research partnership with an Indian think-tank(s) to bring local knowledge partner to enhance assessment of air quality and decarbonisation policies co-benefits (joint modelling work and tailoring of policy recommendation) • Analytical work outputs • Issues paper for the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change to refine and prioritise technical work for 2020 (December 2019). • Tailoring of IEA analytical frameworks and modelling outputs to estimate impacts of different climate and air quality policy measures and more effective policy coordination by enhancing IEA tools and frameworks • In depth analytical report highlighting opportunities relating to overlaps and synergies between different energy transition policy objectives (2020)
  14. 14. IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

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