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CCXG Oct 2019 Opening the doors: IEA work on climate change in China and India - Mechthild Wörsdörfer
1. IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Opening the doors: IEA work on climate
change in China and India
Mechthild Wörsdörfer, Director, Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks, IEA
CCXG Global Forum on the Environment and Climate Change
Paris, 2 October 2019
2. IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
2018 – a remarkable year for energy
Annual change in global primary energy demand, 2011-18
Global energy demand last year grew by 2.3%, the fastest pace this decade.
100
200
300
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mtoe
3. IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The new geography of energy…
In 2000, more than 40% of global demand was in Europe & North America and some 20%
in developing economies in Asia. By 2040, this situation is completely reversed
Energy demand
2000
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
United States
European Union
China
Africa
India
Southeast Asia
Middle East
Mtoe
2001
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
United States
European Union
China
Africa
India
Southeast Asia
Middle East
Mtoe
2002
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
United States
European Union
China
Africa
India
Southeast Asia
Middle East
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2003
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
United States
European Union
China
Africa
India
Southeast Asia
Middle East
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2004
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
United States
European Union
China
Africa
India
Southeast Asia
Middle East
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2005
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
United States
European Union
China
Africa
India
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2006
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
United States
China
European Union
Africa
India
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2007
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
United States
China
European Union
Africa
India
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2008
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
United States
China
European Union
Africa
India
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2009
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
Africa
India
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2010
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2011
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2012
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2013
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2014
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2015
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2016
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2017
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2018
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2019
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2020
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2021
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2022
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2023
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2024
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2025
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2026
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2027
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2028
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2029
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
European Union
India
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2030
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2031
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2032
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2033
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2034
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2035
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2036
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2037
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2038
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2039
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
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2040
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
Africa
European Union
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
2040
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
China
United States
India
Africa
European Union
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Mtoe
4. IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The IEA Family keeps growing
• 30 member
countries
• 8 association
countries
• The IEA Family
now covers
almost 75% of
global energy
demand
5. IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Introduction to the Clean Energy Transitions Programme
• Launched in November 2017, the CETP provides cutting-edge support to
accelerate global clean energy transitions
• Priority countries:
• 4 modalities:
- high-level engagement and collaboration,
- joint learning and knowledge exchanges,
- enhancing policy making and implementation,
- strengthening multi-lateral dialogue
• Activities across 6 work streams: data & statistics, energy efficiency,
electricity, policy advice & modelling, sectoral work, and innovation
• Supported by 14 IEA members and/or other organisations
iea.org/cetp
6. IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Example of CETP Deep-dive:
A strong and sustainable cooperation with China
• In 2015, China became one of the first countries to activate
Association status with the IEA
• IEA signed a 3-year work program with the National Energy
Administration in 2017.
• IEA signed MoUs with major Ministries:
- Ministry of Science and Technology (2015)
- Ministry of Ecology and Environment (2018)
- National Development and Reform Commission (2018)
• IEA Clean Energy Transition Programme is supporting key
projects on: National emissions trading scheme (ETS), Power system
transformation, Establishing gas market, 2050 low-carbon strategy,
District cooling.
7. IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Integrating the ETS within a complex energy policy mix
• Carbon pricing plays a critical role in the policy mix for energy sector decarbonisation
• However, it is not a silver bullet policy; a comprehensive policy package is needed.
• Power reform is key for the functioning of the ETS, but ETS can provide the appropriate signals to achieve
full-functioning power reform.
• China is proposing a new ETS design, creating a new momentum showing that ETS could fit into any
country’s climate governance, regardless of its economic development circumstances
• Establishment of National Emissions Trading System: A design and implementation in three phases
Foundation
construction
•2018: National data
reporting system,
registration and
trading system
Simulation run
•2019: Power generation
industry quota
simulation
Deepening and
improvement
•2020: Carry out spot
trading in quotas
between the power
generation industry
trade body
8. IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Power sector is the largest potential of CO2 emission
reductions
Power sector decarbonisation can contribute to more than 40% of Chinese emissions reductions by 2040
Including the 8 industrial sector increases the CO2 emissions coverage, expanding the opportunities for more economic
rational decisions (about 16%).
Chinese CO2 emissions
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2020 2030 2040
GtCO2
New Policies Scenario
Sustainable
Development Scenario
Power Sector decarbonisation
(excluding electricity savings)
Big industrial sectors + aviation
(direct and through electricity savings)
Transport, Buildings,
Other industries, Agriculture
CO2 reductions in power sector due
to electricity savings in other sectors
42%
16%
24%
18%
Source: WEO2017
9. IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Ongoing IEA work and planned activities in China (2018-2020)
• Objectives: Provide technical support to Chinese policymakers with robust analysis and policy
recommendations
• 2018:
• Analytical work: Report to China on international lessons around ETS interactions with
energy policies
• Workshops: Participated to several international and domestic workshops and partnered
with China at COP24 China Pavilion official side-event on China ETS
• 2019-20: Ongoing and upcoming analyses include:
- Capacity building activities and workshops on China ETS
- Analytical work:
- Stringency of China’s allowance allocation benchmarks and evolution towards 2050
- Power sector structure implications for China’s national ETS in mid- to long-term
10. IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
India: Importance of integrated responses to address air
quality, energy access and low carbon transition challenges
• Efforts to reduce air pollution in India can be strongly supported by policies to achieve
energy access and to reduce CO2 emissions, making an integrated response more cost
effective.
• In an integrated scenario applied to India, energy access and decarbonisation policies
contribute as much as 30% of SO2 emissions reductions and 60% of NOx and PM 2.5
emissions reductions.
• The uptake of clean energy technologies can lead to substantial reductions in emissions
of air pollutants that would otherwise be challenging to tackle through air pollution
policies alone.
11. IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Exploiting climate and air quality policy synergies in India
• In July 2019, IEA started a project with the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate
Change (MoEFCC) to assess how an increasingly integrated policy response to clean-
energy transition challenges could bring multiple benefits for India.
• IEA Project objectives:
Enhance technical capacity support to for the Government and research
community
• Working alongside the government and local think tanks to ensure technical
knowledge exchange
Development of analytical insights for India’s stated policy implementation
• Analysis of overlaps and synergies between different policy objectives and
identifying where and how specific policies may have other energy-transition co-
benefits to be maximised
• Assessing appropriate sequencing of different energy transition policies to
achieve overall outcomes with most net benefits.
12. IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
End use electrification and electricity carbon intensity in India
India
Timing and synchronisation of electrification and power sector decarbonisation is
important to achieve most optimal local pollutants and CO2 emissions reduction benefits
0
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1400
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
CarbonIntensityingCO2/kwh
Share
Electricity Share in
TFC
Power Sector
Carbon Intensity
NPS
13. IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Ongoing IEA work and planned activities in India (2019-2020)
• Strengthen collaboration with key institutions
• Scoping workshop in partnership with the Indian government to engage energy-
climate-environment nexus stakeholders to refine analytical focus
• A research partnership with an Indian think-tank(s) to bring local knowledge partner
to enhance assessment of air quality and decarbonisation policies co-benefits (joint
modelling work and tailoring of policy recommendation)
• Analytical work outputs
• Issues paper for the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change to refine and
prioritise technical work for 2020 (December 2019).
• Tailoring of IEA analytical frameworks and modelling outputs to estimate impacts of
different climate and air quality policy measures and more effective policy coordination
by enhancing IEA tools and frameworks
• In depth analytical report highlighting opportunities relating to overlaps and synergies
between different energy transition policy objectives (2020)