Speakers:
Joe Ritchie, Kevin Lane, IEA
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has developed an Efficient World Scenario
(EWS) to highlight the benefits to the global energy system from the adoption of
cost-effective energy efficiency measures. This presentation will provide an
overview of the EWS, which was published in the IEA’s Energy Efficiency 2018
report, and includes an examination of the potential efficiency gains in the
transport, buildings and industry sectors and the policy measures needed to
realise this potential.
Energy efficiency can double the amount of
global GDP produced from each unit of energy.
Government policy is central to realising the
potential of energy efficiency
The International Energy
Agency’s Efficient World Scenario
Youtube Channel
j.mp/leonardotube
47th Webinar of the IEADSM University
www.dsmu.org
March 21, 2019
15h00 – 16h00
Webinar

© OECD/IEA 2018
The IEA’s Efficient World Scenario
Joe Ritchie and Kevin Lane
21 March 2019
IEA

© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy Efficiency 2018
• Global trends and outlooks
- Energy intensity and efficiency trends
- Policy progress and trends
- Introduction to efficient world scenario
- IEA Efficient World Strategy
• Sector chapters
- Transport, Buildings and Industry
• Investment finance and business models
• Energy Efficiency in Emerging Economies
- Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa
• Available for free from www.iea.org/efficiency2018

© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy efficiency trends and
the Efficient World Scenario

© OECD/IEA 2018
Why is energy use on the rise?
Global energy efficiency is improving, but its impact is being overwhelmed by factors that create more
demand for energy.
Decomposition of final energy use in the world’s major economies
Note: Countries covered are IEA countries plus China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Argentina.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 energy use More buildings
and appliances
Less efficient
transport patterns
Increased activity Shifts in economic
activity
Improvements in
energy efficiency
2017 energy use
EJ

© OECD/IEA 2018
The impacts of energy efficiency are already significant
Energy efficiency improvements since 2000 prevented 12% more energy use and emissions in 2017.
Global final energy use and emissions with and without energy efficiency improvements, 2000-17
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017
Index(2000=100)
Energy use
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017
Emissions
GDP
Without
energy
efficiency
Actual

© OECD/IEA 2018
Efficiency gains have been largest in industry, underpinned by savings in China and North America.
Transport has made the smallest contribution, due to variable policy and activity growth.
Sectoral contributions to energy savings from improvements in energy efficiency in IEA and other major economies
What sectors are contributing to efficiency gains?
Notes: IEA includes Mexico, other major economies are China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Argentina.
51%
38%
11%
Industry
Buildings
Transport

© OECD/IEA 2018
What does a more efficient world look like?
• The world is missing opportunities to improve energy efficiency, policy is not
delivering the full potential gains that are available with current technology.
• What is possible with greater efforts on energy efficiency? The IEA’s new Efficient
World Scenario answers the question:
What would happen by 2040 if countries realised all the economically viable
energy efficiency potential that is available today?
The Economy The Energy System The Environment

© OECD/IEA 2018
In the Efficient World Scenario, energy intensity will improve by around 3% per year, a step-up from
current levels, resulting in minimal increases in energy demand, despite the global economy doubling.
Global primary energy demand, GDP and intensity, historically and in the EWS, 2000-40
Energy intensity improvements will accelerate
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Index (2000=100)
Primary energy demand GDP Energy intensity
Primary energy demand (EWS) GDP (EWS) Energy intensity (EWS)

© OECD/IEA 2018
The IEA’s new Efficient World Scenario shows that global energy intensity improvements could average
2.9% per year to 2040, a 75% increase on levels observed in 2017.
Global energy intensity improvement in the in the Efficient World Scenario, 2017-40
A lot of energy efficiency potential remains untapped
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 EWS 2017-40

© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy savings from efficiency are scaled up
Between now and 2040, energy efficiency improvements could prevent nearly 30% more energy use.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2017 2040
Trends Outlook
EJ
Energy savings compared with Current
Policies Scenario
Energy savings since 2000 due to
efficiency
Energy demand (Historical and under
Efficient World Scenario)
Global energy use and savings from efficiency gains, historic and outlook

© OECD/IEA 2018
There is significant cost-effective savings potential in every sector
Only one third of the potential cumulative energy savings from efficiency gains by 2040 are realised in the NPS.
The majority of potential across all sectors is realised in the EWS.
Cumulative energy savings in NPS and additional potential in the EWS to 2040
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Industry Transport Buildings
EJ
Efficient World Scenario
New Policies Scenario

© OECD/IEA 2018
Efficiency can deliver immediate environmental benefits
The EWS results in an early emissions peak and around 40% of the abatement required by 2040 to be in
line with Paris targets. Energy efficiency is indispensable to achieving global climate targets.
Greenhouse emissions in the NPS and EWS, 2000-40 (left) and air pollutant emissions in the EWS, 2015-40 (right)
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Gt CO2-eq
Greenhouse gas emissions
Historic Baseline Efficient World Scenario
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
2015 2040
Mt
Air pollutant emissions
PM2.5
NOx
SO2

© OECD/IEA 2018
The EWS is the efficiency of component of the IEA SDS
Energy efficiency and renewables account for 80% of the cumulative CO2 emissions reductions in the
SDS.
Global CO2 emissions reductions in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios
16
20
24
28
32
36
2010 2020 2030 2040
Gt
New Policies Scenario
Sustainable
Development Scenario
Efficiency
Renewables
Fuel-switching
CCS
Other
Nuclear
44%
36%
2%
6%
9%
2%

© OECD/IEA 2018
Efficiency bring benefits to all levels of the economy
The Efficient World Scenario also fully delivers the energy efficiency target (Target 7.3) of the UN
Sustainable Development Goals
USD 700 billion
Avoided energy
imports in the EU,
China and India
USD 600 billion
Avoided energy
expenditure in
industry
USD 550 billion
Avoided household
energy spending

© OECD/IEA 2018
Transport energy efficiency

© OECD/IEA 2018
Historic rates of efficiency improvement within transport are highly variable.
Car and truck energy efficiency could improve at a much faster rate.
Historical efficiency improvements and future projections for transport (left), Energy savings potential for road transport (right)
Transport can accelerate towards a more efficient world
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2000-16 2017-40 2000-16 2017-40 2000-16 2017-40 2000-16 2017-40
Passenger light-
duty vehicles
Road freight Aviation International
Shipping
Averageannualefficiencyimprovement
Efficient World Scenario Historical
Cars and vans
52%
Trucks
42%
Buses
4%
2 and 3 wheelers
2%

© OECD/IEA 2018
Transport policy coverage is highest in countries where fuel economy standards have been in place for
an extended period (US, China, Japan). There is room for growth in emerging markets.
Mandatory policy coverage of transport energy use for select countries, 2017
Transport policy reflects the varying presence of standards
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
% of transport energy use
2000
2005
2010
2015
2017

© OECD/IEA 2018
Implementing the best in class fuel economy standards would have avoided 2.2 mb/day of oil use.
Without any change in policy settings, passenger car energy use could increase by over 4 mb/day.
Historical and future change in global passenger car energy use without standards and if best-in-class fuel economy standards
had been implemented, 2000-17 and 2017-40
What is the benefit of fuel economy standards
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Without standards Implementing best-in-class
standards
Mboe/d
Implementing no new
policies (CPS)
EWS
2000-17 2017-40

© OECD/IEA 2018
New ambition levels required for transport
What is possible by 2040 Key policy actions
• Improve coverage and strength of
transport policies for cars and trucks
and non-road modes.
• Provide incentives to support uptake
and sustainable use of efficient
vehicles.
• Information to support efficient
vehicle uptake and mode shift.
• Energy demand could stay flat,
despite doubling activity levels.
• Passenger cars and trucks offer
two-thirds of potential savings.

© OECD/IEA 2018
Buildings and appliances
energy efficiency

© OECD/IEA 2018
Buildings energy use has been rising, but could stay flat to 2040, despite 60% more floor space.
Buildings energy intensity has been improving at 1.6% per year, but this could be 2.2% per year.
Buildings energy use and energy intensity, 2000-40
Buildings energy intensity has been improving
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0
25
50
75
100
125
2000 2005 2010 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Historical Efficient World Scenario
GJ/m2 floor areaEJ
Total demand
Intensity (floor area)

© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy efficiency improvement has been variable, due mainly to increased appliance ownership.
Gains could be made across all end-uses, with space and water heating and cooling covering 60%
Change in energy intensity, 2000-40 (left) and contribution to total energy savings in the EWS to 2040 (right)
Efficiency can improve across all building end-uses
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60% 2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
Space
heating
Space
cooling
Water
heating
Lighting Cooking Appliances
Energy intensity improvement (%)
Historic Efficient World Scenario
26%
22%
26%
5%
9%
12%
24 EJ
Space heating Water heating
Cooking Lighting
Appliances Space cooling

© OECD/IEA 2018
Less than 40% of building energy use is covered by mandatory energy efficiency policy. Although
coverage is high for lighting and space cooling
Energy efficiency policy coverage of buildings end-uses, 2000-17
Policy coverage is spread across building end-uses
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017
Policy coverage
Lighting
Space cooling
Appliances
Space heating
Water heating
ALL BUILDINGS
Cooking

© OECD/IEA 2018
Space cooling energy use has grown rapidly, as a result of warming climates and growing populations.
Forces pushing space cooling energy demand will continue to grow, but efficiency can limit the impact.
Buildings cooling energy use decomposition, global, 2000-40
Space cooling energy use will grow rapidly
0
4
8
12
16
20
2000 Activity Structure Efficiency 2017 Activity Structure Efficiency 2040
Historical Efficient World Scenario
Cooling final energy (EJ)

© OECD/IEA 2018
Buildings could be 40% more efficient than today
What is possible by 2040 Key policy actions
• Comprehensive efficiency policies,
targeting both new and existing
building stock and appliances.
• Incentives to encourage consumers to
adopt high efficiency appliances and
undertake deep energy retrofits.
• Improved quality and availability of
energy performance information and
tools.
• Building space could increase by
60% for no additional energy use.
• Space heating, cooling and water
heating offer 60% of savings.

© OECD/IEA 2018
Industrial energy efficiency

© OECD/IEA 2018
Manufacturing energy intensity in major economies has improved by 25% since 2000.
Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could see an improvement of nearly 45% by 2040.
Energy intensity trends for the manufacturing industries (left) and NPS and EWS energy intensity outlooks, 2018-40 (right)
Manufacturing energy intensity can improve even faster
70
100
130
160
190
220
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017
Index(2000=100)
Gross value added Energy use Energy intensity
50
60
70
80
90
100
2018 2025 2030 2035 2040
Index(2018=100)
New Policies Scenario Efficient World Scenario

© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy efficiency improvements are possible across all sub-sectors.
Light industry (e.g. food, beverage and textile manufacturing) represent the bulk (70%) of savings.
Percentage improvement in energy intensity by industry sub-sector (left) contribution to total energy savings in 2040 (right)
Efficiency can improve across all industry sub-sectors
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
2000-17
2018-40
Iron and steel Chemical and
petrochemical
Cement Paper, pulp
and print
Aluminium Other
industries
%improvementinenergyintensity
Historic Efficient World Scenario
14%
9%
2%5%
1%
70%
Iron and steel Chemicals
Cement Pulp and paper
Aluminium Other industries

© OECD/IEA 2018
MEPS are a common policy tool, but slow stock turnover has not seen policy reach its potential.
Coverage is highest in North America due to early implementation of policy (i.e. before 2000).
Policy coverage and potential for electric motors (left) and coverage and increase in policy strength since 2000 (right)
MEPS for electric motors is a common policy tool
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Electricmotorsenergyusecovered
Global
Actual coverage Coverage potential
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Electricmotorsenergyusecovered
Country/region
Increase in policy strength since 2000 (right axis)

© OECD/IEA 2018
There were over 23 000 ISO 50001 certifications in 2017, a slow down in the rate of growth.
Matching certifications for other management standards will depend on take-up by China.
ISO 50001 certifications 2011-17 (left) and certification progress compared with other management standards (right)
ISO 50001 certifications are slowing
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of certifications
Germany Other Europe Asia and Pacific
North America Other
0
30 000
60 000
90 000
120 000
150 000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Numberofcertifications
Years after introduction of standard
ISO 14001 ISO 9001 ISO 50001

© OECD/IEA 2018
Targeting efficiency beyond the largest industry sectors
What is possible by 2040 Key policy actions
• Expanded and strengthened standards
for key industrial equipment, including
electric heat pumps and motors.
• Incentives to encourage the adoption
of energy management systems.
• Mechanisms such as industry networks,
training and case studies to enhance
awareness and capacity.
• Value-added per unit of energy
could double.
• Less energy-intensive industry
offers 70% of potential savings.

© OECD/IEA 2018
Energy efficiency investment

© OECD/IEA 2018
Global energy efficiency investment grew marginally in 2017, up by 3% to USD 236 billion.
The buildings sector continues to dominate, reaching USD 140 billion (59%) of the global total in 2017.
Energy efficiency investment by sector and region
Energy efficiency investment growth slowed in 2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
2014 2015 2016 2017
USDbillions
By region
Other
North
America
Europe
China
29%
11%
6%
14%
7%
8%
14%
11%
59%
15%
26%
By sector Envelope
HVAC and controls
Appliances
Lighting
Energy intensive industry
Other industry
Premium paid for
energy efficient vehicle
Freight vehicles
USD 236 billion
Buildings
Transport
Industry

© OECD/IEA 2018
But investment levels need to rise
Annual energy efficiency investment must double to 2025 and then double again to 2040.
Policy will need to facilitate finance and business model innovation to stimulate this investment.
Annual energy efficiency investment in 2017 and in the Efficient World Scenario
0
300
600
900
1 200
1 500
Current Average annual 2017-25 Average annual 2026-40
USD (2017) billions
2017 Efficient World Scenario (EWS)

© OECD/IEA 2018
Concluding remarks
• The IEA EWS shows a 2040 world with double GDP, 20% more people and 60%
more building space, with lower emissions than today
• Efficiency can reduce air pollution, imports and consumer bills, and EWS maps
out the path to delivering the UN SDG on energy efficiency
• The efficiency opportunities are cost-effective and use only technology available
today, but require a significant step up in policy action
• Investments need to double now and double again after 2025, but these
investments will payback threefold on energy savings alone
• There are good examples today of all the policies required for tomorrow. These
form the basis for increased ambition and impact

© OECD/IEA 2018
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