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World Energy Outlook, 2017

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Launch Presentation, 14 November 2017

Published in: Economy & Finance
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World Energy Outlook, 2017

  1. 1. © OECD/IEA 2017 London, 14 November 2017
  2. 2. © OECD/IEA 2017 Tipping the energy world off its axis  Four large-scale upheavals in global energy set the scene for the new Outlook:  The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader for oil & gas  Solar PV is on track to be the cheapest source of new electricity in many countries  China’s new drive to “make the skies blue again” is recasting its role in energy  The future is electrifying, spurred by cooling, electric vehicles & digitalisation  These changes brighten the prospects for affordable, sustainable energy & require a reappraisal of approaches to energy security  There are many possible pathways ahead & many potential pitfalls if governments or industry misread the signs of change
  3. 3. © OECD/IEA 2017 India takes the lead, as China energy growth slows Change in energy demand, 2016-40 (Mtoe) Old ways of understanding the world of energy are losing value as countries change roles: India 1 005 420 Southeast Asia China 790 United States -30 Japan -50 Europe -200 270Central and South America 485 Africa 135 Eurasia 480 Middle East the Middle East is fast becoming a major energy consumer & the United States a major exporter
  4. 4. © OECD/IEA 2017 Low-carbon sources & natural gas meet 85% of the increase in global demand: Change in world energy demand by fuel Coal (Mtce) 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 Oil (mb/d) 6 12 18 24 30 1990-2016 2016-40 Gas (bcm) 400 800 1 200 1 600 2 000 1990-2016 2016-40 Low-carbon (Mtoe) 400 800 1 200 1 600 2 000 1990-2016 2016-401990-2016 2016-40 A world in motion..
  5. 5. © OECD/IEA 2017 Change in world energy demand by fuel Low-carbon sources & natural gas meet 85% of the increase in global demand: Coal (Mtce) 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 - 500 1990-2016 2016-40 Oil (mb/d) 6 12 18 24 30 1990-2016 2016-40 Gas (bcm) 400 800 1 200 1 600 2 000 1990-2016 2016-40 Low-carbon (Mtoe) 400 800 1 200 1 600 2 000 1990-2016 2016-40 China’s switch to a new economic model & a cleaner energy mix drives global trends Other countriesChina .. as China moves global energy markets, again
  6. 6. © OECD/IEA 2017 Solar PV forges ahead in the global power mix Global average annual net capacity additions by type China, India & the US lead the charge for solar PV, while Europe is a frontrunner for onshore & offshore wind: rising shares of solar & wind require more flexibility to match power demand & supply Renewables Nuclear Gas Coal Renewables Nuclear Gas Coal 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160GW 2010-2016 2017-2040 Solar PV Wind Solar PV Wind Other Other
  7. 7. © OECD/IEA 2017 The future is electrifying Electricity generation by selected region India adds the equivalent of today’s European Union to its electricity generation by 2040, Middle East 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 Africa Southeast Asia European Union India United States China TWh 2016 Growth to 2040 Sources of global electricity demand growth Industrial motors Cooling Large appliances Connected & small appliances Electric vehicles Other while China adds the equivalent of today’s United States
  8. 8. © OECD/IEA 2017 Electric cars are helping to transform energy use for passenger cars, slowing the pace of growth in global oil demand: however, trucks, aviation, shipping & petrochemicals keep oil on a rising trend Electric cars are helping to transform energy use for passenger cars, slowing the pace of growth in global oil demand: however, trucks, aviation, shipping & petrochemicals keep oil on a rising trendhowever, trucks, aviation, shipping & petrochemicals keep oil on a rising trend EVs are on the way, but oil demand still keeps rising Electric car fleet 100 200 300 2016 2025 2040 Millioncars Other countries United States India European Union China Passenger cars Other sectors Change in global oil demand 4 8 12 16 Petrochemicals Aviation and shipping Trucks mb/d - 4 2016-2040 0
  9. 9. © OECD/IEA 2017 25 30 35 US becomes undisputed leader of oil & gas production Oil and gas production in the United States The US is already switching to become a net exporter of gas & becomes a net exporter of oil in the 2020s, helped also by the demand-side impact of fuel efficiency & fuel switching 5 10 15 20 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 mboe/d Shale oil Shale gas Other unconventionals Conventional oil & gas
  10. 10. © OECD/IEA 2017 706 bcm in 2016 Asia’s growing gas import requirements are largely met by LNG, with exports from the US accelerating a shift towards a more flexible, liquid global market LNG ushers in a new global gas order Global gas trade 39% shipped by LNG 1 230 bcm in 2040 59% shipped by LNG
  11. 11. © OECD/IEA 2017 706 bcm in 2016 Asia’s growing gas import requirements are largely met by LNG, with exports from the US accelerating a shift towards a more flexible, liquid global market LNG ushers in a new global gas order 1 230 bcm in 2040 Australia Russia & Caspian Middle East Other Africa US & Canada Australia Russia & Caspian Middle East Other AfricaUS & Canada Gas exporters
  12. 12. © OECD/IEA 2017 706 bcm in 2016 Global gas trade Asia’s growing gas import requirements are largely met by LNG, with exports from the US accelerating a shift towards a more flexible, liquid global market LNG ushers in a new global gas order Gas exportersGas importers 1 230 bcm in 2040 Asia 37% Europe 52% Other Asia 60% Europe 35% Other
  13. 13. © OECD/IEA 2017 A new strategy for energy & sustainable development Sustainable Development Scenario The Sustainable Development Scenario reduces CO2 emissions in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, while also tackling air pollution and achieving universal energy access New Policies Scenario Sustainable Development Scenario Global CO2 emissions by scenario 10 20 30 40 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Gt
  14. 14. © OECD/IEA 2017 Stronger policies for a more sustainable world 580bcm additional gas demand 2times more efficient than today 3250GW global solar PV capacity 875million electric vehicles Only 15% additional investment is required to 2040 to achieve the Sustainable Development Scenario, with two-thirds of energy supply investment going to electricity generation & networks The Sustainable Development Scenario in 2040
  15. 15. © OECD/IEA 2017 Conclusions  The oil & gas boom in the United States is shaking up the established order, with major implications for markets, trade flows, investment & energy security  The versatility of natural gas means that it is well placed to grow, but it cannot afford price spikes or uncertainty over methane leaks  China continues to shape global trends, but in new ways as its “energy revolution” drives cost reductions for a wide range of clean energy technologies  Our strategy for sustainable energy shows that concerted action to address climate change is fully compatible with global goals on universal access & air quality  Electrification & digitalisation are the future for many parts of the global energy system, creating new opportunities but also risks that policy makers have to address
  16. 16. © OECD/IEA 2017 iea.org/weo

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