Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

Oct. 24, 2017

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Webinar: Energy Access Outlook 2017

  1. © OECD/IEA 2017 © OECD/IEA 2017
  2. © OECD/IEA 2017 Context  The 2015 Sustainable Development Goals recognise energy access as the “golden thread” that weaves together human development, economic growth & sustainability  Yet, this report finds that today, 1.1 billion people lack access to electricity & 2.8 billion people do not have access to clean cooking  Women without access bear the burden, spending over 5 hours each day gathering wood & cooking on polluting stoves, linked to 2.8 million premature deaths each year  The declining costs of renewables and digital technologies are transforming the electricity access landscape  But is this new political momentum & technology progress enough to bring universal access to modern energy?
  3. © OECD/IEA 2017 Women are disproportionately impacted by lack of energy access Average number of hours spent collecting fuel per day per household A high reliance on biomass for cooking in many countries means that women and children without clean cooking access spend an average of 1.4 hours/day collecting fuel 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 Hours Number of hours per day Share of population relying on biomass for cooking (right axis)
  4. © OECD/IEA 2017 A lack of access to clean cooking facilities kills Population without access to clean cooking & related premature deaths, 2015 Household air pollution is responsible for 2.8 million premature deaths every year, concentrated in countries with a high reliance on biomass and coal for cooking 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 China India Sub-Saharan Africa Other developing Asia Other Southeast Asia Indonesia Millionprematuredeaths Millionpeople Traditional use of biomass Coal Kerosene Premature deaths (right axis)
  5. © OECD/IEA 2017 Improved access to clean cooking remains elusive Impact of policies and population growth on the number of people without access to clean cooking In many regions, the impact of policies is over-shadowed by population growth 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 2000 2015 Millionpeople Rest of the world Sub-Saharan Africa Other developing Asia India China Population gaining access Population growth
  6. © OECD/IEA 2017 Million people 200 400 600 2000 2005 2010 2016 Progress in electricity access is seen in all world regions, but sub-Saharan Africa lags behind Population without electricity access Many countries, led by India, are on track to achieving full electrification by 2030, but – despite recent progress – efforts in sub-Saharan Africa need to redouble Sub-Saharan Africa India Other Asia 2020 2025 2030 India Other Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Million 200 400 600 2000 2005 2010 2016 Sub-Saharan Africa India Other Asia 2020 2025 2030
  7. © OECD/IEA 2017 A shift in the electricity access paradigm Population gaining access by source Declining cost of renewables and innovative off-grid business models are transforming the way access is delivered, especially in rural areas Fossil fuels 39% 2017-2030 Coal 16% Gas 9% Other 14% 2000-2016 Renewables 30% Coal 45% Gas 19% Other, 7% Renewables 61% Renewables 30% Grid 27% Renewables 61% Decentralised 38% Grid 23%
  8. © OECD/IEA 2017 Achieving access for all by 2030
  9. © OECD/IEA 2017 An IEA strategy to universal electricity access On-Grid Mini-Grid Off-Grid Existing grid  Grid extension for 150 million additional people, with hydro accounting for the lion’s share  Decentralised solutions, mainly solar PV, for the remaining 450 million people in rural areas  An additional $26 billion per year is needed in electricity generation and grids In 2030, 90% of those without access in sub-Saharan Africa are in rural areas; electricity for all needs an acceleration in the deployment of decentralised systems Least-cost solution for delivering universal electricity access in the Energy for All Case, 2030
  10. © OECD/IEA 2017 Efficient appliances provide more for less Efficient appliances bring down the cost of delivering electricity access with off-grid solutions by one-third
  11. © OECD/IEA 2017 The deployment of a range of clean fuels and technologies can lower premature deaths related to household air pollution from 2.5 to 0.7 million in 2030 Today 2030 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000Million people Population without access to clean cooking Clean cooking for all: what will it take? 90% 10% Clean fuels and technologies used for cooking in developing countries in the Energy for All Case, 2030 Gained access in the Central Scenario Gained access in the Energy for All Case Biomass (improved) 16% LPG 30%Gas 35% Electricity 17% Other, 2% 2000
  12. © OECD/IEA 2017 New test protocols are required for lab tests, but field campaigns can not be replaced to understand implications of some issues like “stove stacking” • lack of results for ICS proving statistically significant reduction in emissions • For micro-gasifiers evidence based results don’t comply with WHO targets Laboratory Tests Clean cooking To promote evidence-based “improved” technologies  assess stoves’ performance under controlled conditions => may improve ICSs design  fixed cooking system – pot, fuel, burn sequence  fixed Boundary Condition: room size, shape & ventilation  expert users: ability to operate the stove may vary  Integrating local context factor i.e different burn sequences “improved” and “clean” technologies
  13. © OECD/IEA 2017 Technological choice is strongly influenced by local practice and culture, such as speed of cooking, taste of traditional dishes and family harmony 90% 10% Cooking fuels &technologies: trade-offs 1.Go local 2.Convince people of the benefits 3.Engage women 4.Monitor and adapt 5.Use a subsidy when necessary Clean cooking programmes: best practise Clean cooking To promote evidence-based “improved” technologies
  14. © OECD/IEA 2017 Woman’s relief may start a virtuous cycle of opportunities to unveil diversity within the energy supply chain for socio-economic activities Clean cooking: to unveil a gender-based opportunity for society 90% 10% Energy Solutions 4 productive uses Women’s relief at household level Toward Clean Cooking for all HealthEntrepreneurs TimeEnergy business …technologies, business models… Diversity in socio-economic thinking
  15. Energy Solutions need to be designed FOR - BY - WITH the people without them, no transformative change in energy access could be achieved The power of human capital: To exploit more effectively capacity building …beyond delivering «training hours» ... capacity building «Appropriate energy solutions…must respond to the needs, capacities, and aspirations of people and be absorbed within the local culture…”Comprehesive and life cycle approach Mix of Teaching Strategies and Tools Diversified Targets for Diversified Skills SEAR Special Report, 2017: The Power of human Capital, the World Bank
  16. Systemic integration of functions, data and governance may generate more effective resource management and equitable access to services A new paradigm of Infrastructure: to foster Integration among services The ‘leapfrogging’ transformation toward SMART & Integrated infrastructure may match the need of People, Planet & Prosperity Toward Smart and Integrated Infrastructure for Africa, ICA Background Paper 2017 Inter-sectorial synergies are crucial among energy, transport and ICT and other services provided 1. right asset of governance is in place and 2. multidimensional involvement of citizens is enabled Limited Access to other services like ICT and transport beyond energy Internet<30%Broadband<5% Rails ~15%Passengers ~5% Goods ~3%
  17. © OECD/IEA 2017 Realising energy for all won’t cost the earth Additional impact of the Energy for All Case relative to the Central Scenario, 2030 The benefits of achieving universal energy access by 2030 far outweigh the costs 0%Net increase in greenhouse-gas emissions 1.8Million deaths avoided annually 2Months of work saved annually per woman 1.9% Increase in global energy investment
  18. © OECD/IEA 2017 Conclusions  Achieving energy for all is essential for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, especially for improving livelihoods, health, gender equality and education  Cost declines in solar and energy efficiency open new and viable rural electrification strategies to “leave no one behind”  Universal access to clean cooking cannot be achieved unless it is elevated on the political agenda and women are at the heart of delivering solutions  Energy access and climate goals are not in conflict  The IEA will continue to lead in providing data, analysis and policy guidance to support governments & the international community to achieve SDG 7.1 – energy for all
  19. © OECD/IEA 2017 Explore the data behind the Energy Access Outlook-2017 Download the free report and country-by-country database covering >140 countries: