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Energy Technology Perspectives 2017

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Energy Technology Perspectives 2017

  1. 1. IEA © OECD/IEA 2017 Energy Technology Perspectives 2017 Catalysing Energy Technology Transformations
  2. 2. © OECD/IEA 2017 Key points of orientation • Global energy markets are changing rapidly ØRenewables supplied half of global electricity demand growth in 2016, and increase in nuclear capacity reached highest level since 1993 ØGlobal energy intensity improved by 2.1% in 2016 ØElectric car sales were up 40% in 2016, a new record year • The energy sector remains key to sustainable economic growth Ø1.2B people lack access to electricity; 2.7B people lack access to clean cooking ØLargest source of GHG emissions today, around two-thirds of global total ØLargest source of air pollution, linked to 6.5 million premature deaths per year • There is no single story about the future of global energy ØFast-paced technological progress and changing energy business models
  3. 3. © OECD/IEA 2017 Global CO2 emissions flat for 3 years – an emerging trend? IEA analysis shows that global CO2 emissions remained flat in 2016 for the third year in a row, even though the global economy grew, led by emission declines in the US and China. 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 Gt Global energy-related CO2 emissions
  4. 4. © OECD/IEA 2017 0 10 20 30 40 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 GtCO2 Efficiency 40% Renewables 35% Fuel switching 5% Nuclear 6% CCS 14% How far can technology take us? Pushing energy technology to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 could meet the mid-point of the range of ambitions expressed in Paris. Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO2 reductions Efficiency 40% Renewables 35% Fuel switching 5% Nuclear 6% CCS 14% Efficiency 34% Renewables 15% Fuel switching 18% Nuclear 1% CCS 32% Global CO2 reductions by technology area 2 degrees Scenario – 2DS Reference Technology Scenario – RTS Beyond 2 degrees Scenario – B2DS 0 200 400 Gt CO2 cumulative reductions in 2060
  5. 5. © OECD/IEA 2017 The potential of clean energy technology remains under-utilised Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising, but many technologies still need a strong push to achieve their full potential and deliver a sustainable energy future. Energy storage Solar PV and onshore wind Other renewable power Building construction Nuclear Transport – Fuel economy of light-duty vehicles Lighting, appliances and building equipment Electric vehicles Energy-intensive industrial processes Transport biofuels Carbon capture and storage More efficient coal-fired power ●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track
  6. 6. © OECD/IEA 2017 Solar PV and Wind are still leading the transition… Solar PV and onshore wind electricity generation are expected to grow by 2.5 times and by 1.7 times, respectively, over 2015-20. Electricity generation of selected renewable power generation technologies 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 TWh PV 0 400 800 1 200 1 600 2 000 2 400 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 TWh Onshore Wind Data Forecast Target
  7. 7. © OECD/IEA 2017 … but can’t make up for other low-carbon generation sources While renewable power additions keep breaking records, they need to grow much faster to reach the 2DS electricity generation targets. Progress on early-stage technologies also needs to accelerate. Total renewable power generation by region 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2025 Share of Renewable Generation Generation (TWh) Rest of Non-OECD Brazil India China OECD Europe OECD Asia Oceania OECD Americas Share of renewable generation Share of renewable generation 2025 Historical Forecast Targets in the 2DS in the 2DS
  8. 8. © OECD/IEA 2017 Can we push up the low-carbon power deployment pace? Average capacity additions in different periods in the B2DS Recent successes in solar and wind will have to be extended to all low-carbon solutions, and brought to a scale never experienced before. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Last Decade Last year 2017-2030 2030-2060 GW per year Fossil CCS (Incl.BECCS) Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV Other renewables
  9. 9. © OECD/IEA 2017 Centralised fuel production, power and storage Systems Integration is essential for a sustainable energy future We need to move away from a one-directional energy delivery philosophy
  10. 10. © OECD/IEA 2017 Centralised fuel production, power and storage Renewable energy resources EV Co-generation Smart energy system control Distributed energy resources Surplus heat H vehicle2 Systems Integration is essential for a sustainable energy future We need to move away from a one-directional energy delivery philosophy to a digitally-enhanced, multidirectional and integrated system that requires long-term planning for services delivery.
  11. 11. © OECD/IEA 2017 The value of storage is starting to drive new solutions Globally installed non-pumped hydro electricity storage (GW) 0 50 100 150 200 250 2016 2020 2025 GW non-PHS Storage Pumped Hydropower Storage 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 2011 2014 2016 GW Globally installed electricity storage (GW) Positive market and policy trends supported a year-on-year growth of over 50% for non-pumped hydro storage But near-term storage needs will remain largely answered by existing or planned pumped hydro capacity.
  12. 12. © OECD/IEA 2017 Can we enact a storage revolution Batteries experience a huge scale-up in the B2DS, with EV battery markets leading other sectors in size. Installed battery storage and costs under various scenarios 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2015 2030 2045 2060 2DS B2DS USD/kWh GWh All other sectors EV batteries Battery costs, 2DS Battery costs, B2DS
  13. 13. © OECD/IEA 2017 EVs are still on track, but need continued support The global PEV car stock has reached 2 million units in circulation last year, but sales growth went from 70% last year to 40% this year, suggesting an increasing risk to start diverging from a 2DS trajectory. Evolution of the global BEV and PHEV stock, 2010-2016 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Number of vehicles on the road (Thousands) PHEV BEV Others Germany France United Kingdom Netherlands Norway Japan USA China EV Growth Rate
  14. 14. © OECD/IEA 2017 Can we change the landscape of transport ? The transportation sector already experiences technological change, but won’t shed its oil dependency without assertive policies. Vehicle sales and technology shares under different scenarios Heavy-Duty Vehicles (millions)Light-duty Vehicles (millions) 0 40 80 120 160 200 2015 RTS - 2060 B2DS - 2060 0 5 10 15 20 25 2015 RTS - 2060 B2DS - 2060
  15. 15. © OECD/IEA 2017 Enhanced buildings efficiency could also improve system flexibility Efficiency technologies can provide the same level of comfort while reducing energy demand despite doubling floor area. 112 EJ157 EJ123 EJ 2014 (123 EJ) RTS 2060 (157 EJ) B2DS 2060 (112 EJ) 31% 54% 61% Electricity ElectricityElectricity 37% 24% 3% 5% Electricity 31% Fossil fuels Traditional biomass Renewables Other Electricity Energy use in the buildings sector under different scenarios
  16. 16. © OECD/IEA 2017 Can we produce materials more sustainably ? Effective policies and public-private collaboration are needed to enable an extensive roll out of energy and material efficiency strategies as well as a suite of innovative technologies. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2014 2030 2060 2030 2060 RTS B2DS Gt CO2 EJ Other industries Pulp and paper Aluminium Chemicals and petrochemicals Cement Iron and steel Direct CO2 emissions Energy use and direct CO2 emissions in various industrial sectors under different scenarios
  17. 17. © OECD/IEA 2017 Can we produce enough sustainable biomass ? Around 145 EJ of sustainable bioenergy is available by 2060 in all our decarbonisation scenarios, but gets used differently between the 2DS and the B2DS. 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 RTS 2DS B2DS 2014 2060 EJ Transport Industry Buildings Agriculture Fuel transformation Power Bioenergy use by sector
  18. 18. © OECD/IEA 2017 CCS is happening today,CCS is happening today, but needs to be ramped up hundreds of times to achieve long-term goals The role for CCS varies based on local circumstances. A challenging task ahead for CCS 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 2030 2060 2030 2060 Today 2DS B2DS Mt CO₂ Rest of world EU IND CHN MEA USA Amount of CO2 captured under various scenarios 0 20 40 Today Mt CO₂
  19. 19. © OECD/IEA 2017 0 10 20 30 40 2012 2015 USD (2016) billion Private Public Top 3 firms 0 10 20 30 40 2012 2015 USD (2016) billion Private Public Top 3 firms Global clean energy RD&D spending needs a strong boost Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually, coming mostly from governments. Global clean energy RD&D spending 0 10 20 30 40 2012 2021 USD (2016) billion Private Public Top 3 firms Mission Innovation Mission Innovation Top 3 IT company R&D spenders Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually, coming mostly from governments. Mission Innovation could provide a much needed boost.
  20. 20. © OECD/IEA 2017 Conclusions • Early signs point to changes in energy trajectories, helped by policies and technologies, but progress is too slow • An integrated systems approach considering all technology options must be implemented now to accelerate progress • Each country should define its own transition path and scale-up its RD&D and deployment support accordingly • Achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 would require unprecedented technology policies and investments • Innovation can deliver, but policies must consider the full technology cycle, and collaborative approaches can help

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