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Ellen douglas mas 2017
This document summarizes climate change adaptation planning work done in Boston. It finds that climate change is unequivocally happening and is extremely likely caused by human emissions. Global temperatures are projected to rise 0.5-8.6°F by 2100 depending on emissions. Sea level rise will be dominated by ice sheet melting later this century. Studies in East Boston found vulnerabilities in housing, evacuation routes, and flooding. Adaptation options like flood walls and building floodproofing were presented. A study of the Central Artery tunnel system found vulnerabilities of tunnel portals from flooding. The work highlights the need for funding, planning, and collaboration to implement adaptation.
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Ellen douglas mas 2017
- 1. Climate Change Adaptation Planningin Boston Ellen M. Douglas, PE, PhD Associate Professor, School for the Environment University of Massachusetts Boston
- 2. The Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC AR5, 9/27/13) finds that: • it is “unequivocal” that Earth’s climate is warming. • Since the 1950’s, it is “extremely likely” that human emission have been the dominant cause of the rise in global temperature. Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers. Climate change is happening and humans are the predominant cause.
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- 4. • Global temperaturesare likely to rise 0.5-8.6 F by the end of the century depending carbon emissions. • Most aspects of climate change will continue for many centuries even if CO2 emissions stop. • The ocean will continue to warm. Heat will penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation. • Thermal expansion has dominated SLR in 20th C, but ice-sheet melt will likely dominate later in 21st C. Climate change is happening and humans are the dominant cause.
- 5. 20th century contributorsto GMSL rise IPCC AR5 2013 Thermal expansion of ocean water and glacier melt has been the biggest contributor to GMSL. 0.9 ± 0.4 mm/yr Antarctica: 0.3 ± 0.1 mm/yr Greenland: 0.3 ± 0.1 mm/yr 1.1 ± 0.3 mm/yr 0.4 ± 0.1 mm/yr Impoundment & groundwater
- 6. Potential 21st centurycontributors to GMSL rise IPCC AR5 2013 Ice sheet melt and the ice-sheet “finger print is potentially the biggest contributor in 21st C. 0.6 m ~60 m Greenland: 7m West Antarctic Ice Sheet: 5m East Antarctic Ice Sheet: 52m
- 7. Sea-level rise inNew England is not (and will not) be the same as GMSL rise Mass redistribution (elastic gravitational and rotational effects)
- 8. ICE SHEET “FINGERPRINT’ A DC B Figure 1-1.Fingerprints of spatially variable sea-level rise arising from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (A), the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (B), the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (C) and alpine glaciers and ice caps (D). The location of Boston is shown with a star. Shading represents the meters (arbitrary units) of sea-level rise that would occur if each of these land-based ice reservoirs were to contribute a meter of equivalent GMSL rise. (DeConto et al., 2016: Chapter 1 in BRAG report)
- 9. Climate Change inthe U.S. Northeast New findings of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment
- 10. Boston: The Future100-Year Flood under the Higher-Emissions Scenario
- 11. Boston: The Future100-Year Flood under the Higher-Emissions Scenario Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
- 12. The things thatcame out of NECIA Scared the HELL out of everybody in Boston with the flood maps, then… Track 2: Investigate infrastructure vulnerability (MassDOT, BWSC, Massport Track 1: Investigate social and institutional vulnerability (TBHA, East Boston)
- 13. Track 1… Coastal Floodingand Environmental Justice: Identifying Vulnerable Communities and Feasible Adaptation Strategies for the Boston Metro Area Ellen Douglas1, Paul Kirshen2, Chris Watson1, Jack Wiggin1, Michael Paolisso3, Ashley Enrici3 1University of Massachusetts, Boston 2Battelle 3University of Maryland, College Park
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- 19. East Boston Adaptation Protection: “hard”(sea walls) or “soft” (beach/dune) measures combination of the two most likely. Lots of constraints (ie., DPA, densely urbanized). Accommodation: “floodproofing” of homes and buildings residents can’t afford this on their own; many are residents are rentors, not property owners. Temporary evacuation: Current plan inadequate, facilities flooded, tunnel access, no place to go. Retreat: Absolutely not an option for East Bostonians
- 22. Coinciding Stakeholder Perspectives Common Ground ResidentCity Perceptions of climate change Adoption of scientific definition varies broadly Explicit adoption of Scientific Model Impact of recent disasters Sandy and Boston marathon bombing alerted and raised desire to learn and be better prepared for a disaster Sandy and Boston marathon bombing alerted need for emergency readiness and state-wide coordination Values for built environment Transportation access to schools, jobs, emergency care facilities Preserve Infrastructure and operational capabilities Emergency preparedness Emergency preparedness: location of safe evacuation routes, access to food, medical aid and shelter Evacuation and contigency planning priorities for identified sensitive areas Priorities Homes, buildings with distinct community service functions, access routes to jobs, emergency care Minimize disaster recovery costs and damage to critical assets Common interests Information sharing, creating emergency preparedness information packet Data sharing and resource pooling among agencies for improved coordination
- 23. 23 Climate Change Adaptationin East Boston; Workshop I, Understanding the Issues Paul Kirshen, NOAH and others May 13, 2014 Objective: Exchange of the values and points of view of neighborhood and agency stakeholders in creating an East Boston that is resilient to the present and future impacts of sea level rise, coastal storms, and extreme precipitation.
- 24. Neighborhood Delegate Groups: •Orient Heights/Star of the Sea • Eagle Hill and Central Square • Maverick Landing and Jeffries Point Implementation Agency Groups: 24 What is Important to Protect?
- 25. 25 Climate Change Adaptationin East Boston; Workshop 2, Managing Present and Future Coastal Flooding Risks June 25, 2014 Objective: Study team present draft plan to help East Boston adapt to the impacts that reflect the values expressed at the workshop
- 26. 100-year Water LevelThreat Today - Water Surface Elevation of 9.8 feet NAVD88
- 27. Regional Solution for2100 1N, 4N, 4S 27 Flood Wall Temporary Road Barrier Landscaped berm
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- 29. Approximate Locations ofAreas Not Protected by Walls up to 2065 – 2085 (13 ft NAVD)
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- 33. MA Coasal ZoneManagement Grant to City of Boston for Detailed Design of Flood Protection at East Boston Greenway 33
- 34. Urban planning andresiliency www.umb.edu/planning
- 35. Track 2… MassDOT-FHWA PilotProject: Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Options for the Central Artery/Tunnel System Boston, Massachusetts
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- 38. | Leading theNation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot 38 Tip O’Neill Tunnel Exit & Entrance Ramps
- 39. | Leading theNation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot 39 Vent Building 1
- 40. | Leading theNation in Transportation Excellence | www.mass.gov/massdot 40 Vent Building 1 – Detail of Air Exchange Vent
- 41. Ellen Douglas,UMass Boston Project Manager, Climate Change, Hydrology Steven Miller, MassDOT Project Manager Kirk Bosma, Woods Hole Group Hydrodynamic Modelling, Engineering Paul Kirshen, UNH/UMass Boston Climate Change, Vulnerability, Adaptation Chris Watson, UMass Boston Assistant Project Manager, GIS, Database, Survey Katherin McArthur, MassDOT Assistant Project Manager Project Team
- 42. Why existing mapsare not good enough
- 43. Storm Climatology Tropical Storms Data set provided by WindRiskTech (Emanuel, et al., 2006) Select storms used to develop a surface response function Increased storm intensities for 21st century based on climate models Extra-Tropical Storms Data set developed by examining Boston tidal residual water levels Re-analysis data used to feed a balanced wind model • A Large Statistically robust set of storms. • No need to determine joint probabilities. Causes of flooding
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- 48. The good news: Extent of flooding under current conditions is fairly limited with low exceedance probabilities. This allows MassDOT to focus their efforts on reducing the vulnerability of individual Structures and on local adaptation strategies. Regional adaptation can prevent flooding in some areas The bad news: Vulnerable Structures under current conditions include some Tunnel Portals; the number of vulnerable Portals triples by 2070. The plan: Currently field verifying results and recommendations. Developing strategies for prioritizing and implementing adaptation approaches over short and long term. Good News and Bad News
- 49. Ellen Douglas, PE,PhD Paul Kirshen, PhD Rebecca Herst, PhD Avery Palardy Robyn Hannigan, PhD, Dean School for the Environment, UMass Boston CLIMATE READY BOSTON Results from Boston Research Advisory Group (BRAG) climateready.boston.gov
- 50. Sea Level Rise Coastal StormsExtreme Precipitation Extreme Temperatures CLIMATE RISK FACTORS climateready.boston.gov
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- 53. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Best available science(models) by hazard Emissions scenarios Climate projections Vulnerability assessment RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 SRES B1, A1Fi climateready.boston.gov
- 54. The hard partis yet to be done Funding Planning Design Regional buy-in and collaboration Public/private partnerships Political will Public support This is where you all come in!
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