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- 1. Climate Change Impacts on the Goals of the New York-New Jersey Harbor Estuary Program Action Plan for 2011-2015 Harbor Estuary Program Barnard College, 2015 Workshop in Sustainable Development
- 2. WHO WE ARE Sabrina Ramkhelawan Project Manager Urban Studies: Concentration in Environmental Science and Sustainability Hannah Spierer Consultant Environmental Science Mariah Castillo Consultant Political Science Barsa Barsa Consultant Environmental Policy Tracie Brown Consultant, Graphic Designer Mechanical Engineering
- 3. Project Goals Climate Change Stressors Research Summary HEP Goal Review - Concept Maps Annotated Bibliography Reflections Questions? Outline Goal 1: Clean Up Pollution in the Estuary Goal 2: Habitat and Ecological Health Goal 3: Improve Public Access Goal 4: Support an Economic and Ecologically Viable Port Goal 5: Public Education and Community Involvement 1. Increase in Temperature 2. Increase in Precipitation 3. Increase in Sea Level 4. Increase in Magnitude of Extreme Weather Events
- 4. Pollution Public Education Habitat and Ecological Health Economically and Ecologically Viable Port Public Access In what ways does climate change affect the goals of the New York-New Jersey Harbor Estuary Program?
- 5. Project Goals and Products Aid the New York-New Jersey Harbor Estuary Program in their revisions to the 2016- 2020 Action Plan and the Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan Annotated Bibliography Collection of Figures for the Client ● Written summary of all sources read, including the way in which it relates to the project goal Concept Maps for each of the Five HEP goals ● Visual summary of our findings and their relationship to the HEP goals Local Climate Change Stressors Summary of Current Data on the Topic ● Based on data collected, local climate change stressors were determined ● Global, regional and local data ● Includes both infographics and concept maps
- 7. Research Consultant Background Papers Case Studies Frank Nitsche, Research Scientist Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Global IPCC Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report International case studies Hudson River Watershed Chemical processes Contaminants Ecosystems and population interactions Local vulnerability assessments Copenhagen: Climate Change Effects on Port Cities Australia: Ports adapting to climate change Concept Maps Piermont: Vulnerability Report Western Europe: Coastal zone adaptation National EPA Workbook State case studies New York New York City Panel on Climate Change Climate Change Impacts in New York Responding to Climate Change in New York State
- 8. Stressors of Climate Change
- 9. Percentage of Likelihood IPCC Definition NY Panel on Climate Change Term Barnard College Workshop Term 99 – 100% Virtually Certain Virtually Certain Virtually Certain 95 – 100% Extremely Likely Extremely Likely Very Likely 90 – 100% Very Likely Very Likely 66 – 100% Likely Likely Likely 50 – 100% More Likely Than Not More Likely Than Not 33 – 66% About As Likely As Not About As Likely As Not About As Likely As Not 0 – 33% Unlikely (N/A) Unlikely
- 10. Unlikely 0-33% Very Likely 90-100% About as Likely as Not 33- 66% Virtually Certain 99-100% Higher Temperatures: Virtually Certain Warmer Waters: Could promote disease; change in reproductive/migrational patterns in fish or aquatic life which may pose a problem to the HEP’s goal of shellfish harvesting. › › ›More Heat Indices: Very Likely Increased chance of heat stress in people which could pose a problem to the HEP’s goal of community use of water and beaches. Increased Precipitation: Very Likely May cause intense flooding and sewage overflows, decreasing water quality Turbidity of surface water may increase which could pose a problem to the HEP’s goal to support an economically viable port. Increase in Magnitude of Extreme Weather Events: Likely Increase in the intensity of storms Increase in Sea Level: Likely May cause intense flooding which may decrease the available land for public access Likely: 50-100%
- 11. Increase in Extreme Weather Events Increase in Sea Level Increase in Precipitation Increase in Temperature Stressors • The intensity of Atlantic hurricanes is projected to increase • Strong cold season storms are projected to be stronger and possibly more frequent • Heavy precipitation events will likely be more frequent • By 2020, rainfall will increase by 10% • Large storms will be twice to five times as frequent by 2100 • By 2020, it is expected that there will be an .28 meters (11 inch) increase in sea level in New York City • A projected .61 meters (2 feet) increase in sea level rise by 2100, resulting in a .70 meters (2.3 feet) rise specifically in New York • By 2020, the average U.S. temperature is projected to increase by an average of 1.2°C (2.2°F) • By 2100, the average U.S. temperature is projected to increase by about 1.7°C (3°F) to 6.7°C (12°F) University of Waterloo (2012) & EPA (2015)
- 12. Increase in Temperature International Panel on ClimateChange (2015)
- 13. Increase in Temperature New York Panel on Climate Change (2015)
- 14. Increase in Temperature Rutgers Climate Institute (2013)
- 15. New York Panel on Climate Change (2015) Increase in Precipitation ● Changes in precipitation patterns will not be globally uniform ● High latitudes and equatorial Pacific: increase in annual precipitation (likely) ● Mid-latitude wet regions: increase in precipitation (likely)
- 16. New York Panel on Climate Change (2015) Increase in Precipitation
- 17. Increase in Precipitation NJDEP (2015)
- 18. IPCC AR5 (2014) Increase in Sea Level
- 19. FEMA, CUNY Institute for Sustainable Studies (2013) Increase in Sea Level
- 20. Rutgers Climate Institute, NJDEP (2013) Increase in Sea Level
- 21. Increase in Magnitude of Extreme Weather Events Munich Re Geo Risks Research (2014)
- 22. Climate Change Projections for New York in 2020 Adapted from New York Panel on Climate Change (2015) Numbers of Heat Waves Per Year Average Heat Wave Duration (Days) Max Temps at or Above 90 Max Temps at or Above 100 Min Temps at or Below 32 Rainfall at or above 1 in Rainfall at or above 2 in Rainfall at or above 4 in DaysPerYear
- 23. Climate Change Projections for New York in 2080 DaysPerYear Adapted from New York Panel on Climate Change (2015) Numbers of Heat Waves Per Year Average Heat Wave Duration (Days) Max Temps at or Above 90 Max Temps at or Above 100 Min Temps at or Below 32 Rainfall at or above 1 in Rainfall at or above 2 in Rainfall at or above 4 in
- 24. Goal Summaries
- 25. Clean Up Pollution in the Estuary Part A: Pathogens Part B: Toxics Part C: Nutrients Part D: Floatable Debris Goal 1
- 26. Goal 1: Clean up Pollution in Estuary Sewage Overflow Sediment DisplacementFlooding Transfer of Polluted Sediment Contaminated Runoff Pathogens Contaminants Floatable Debris Increase in Extreme Events Increase in Temperature Increase in Sea Level Increase in Precipitation Evaporation Storm Water/ Snow Melt Runoff Air Borne Contaminants
- 27. Goal 1: Clean up Pollution in Estuary Sewage Overflow Sediment DisplacementFlooding Transfer of Polluted Sediment Contaminated Runoff Pathogens Contaminants Floatable Debris Increase in Extreme Events Increase in Temperature Increase in Sea Level Increase in Precipitation Evaporation Storm Water/ Snow Melt Runoff Air Borne Contaminants
- 28. Congener: similar compounds that fall into a general category 209 PCB congeners PCBs originate from a dominant source Temperature, wind speed/direction, and distance from source impact concentrations Higher temperatures will increased rates of PCB transport through air and wind Goal 1: Clean Up Pollution in the Estuary - Brunciak, P., Dachs, J., Gigliotti, C., Nelson, E., & Eisenreich, S. (2001). Atmospheric polychlorinated biphenyl concentrations and apparent degradation in coastal New Jersey. Atmospheric Environment, 3325-3339. Brunciak (2001)
- 29. Goal 1: Clean Up Pollution in the Estuary - Carpenter, D. O. and Welfinger-Smith, G. (2011) The Hudson River: A Case Study of PCB Contamination, in Water and Sanitation-Related Diseases and the Environment: Challenges, Interventions, and Preventive Measures (ed J. M. H. Selendy), John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, NJ, USA. New York Public Media (2012)
- 30. Goal 1: Clean up Pollution in Estuary Sewage Overflow Sediment DisplacementFlooding Transfer of Polluted Sediment Contaminated Runoff Pathogens Contaminants Floatable Debris Increase in Extreme Events Increase in Temperature Increase in Sea Level Increase in Precipitation Evaporation Storm Water/ Snow Melt Runoff Air Borne Contaminants
- 31. Goal 1: Clean up Pollution in Estuary Sewage Overflow Sediment DisplacementFlooding Transfer of Polluted Sediment Contaminated Runoff Pathogens Contaminants Floatable Debris Increase in Extreme Events Increase in Temperature Increase in Sea Level Increase in Precipitation Evaporation Storm Water/ Snow Melt Runoff Air Borne Contaminants
- 32. Goal 1: Clean Up Pollution in the Estuary - Gibbs, R. (1994). Metals in the sediments along the Hudson River Estuary. Environment International, 507-516. Gibbs (1994) Concentration(mg/kg) Distance from Ocean (km) Distance from Ocean (km)
- 33. Goal 1: Clean up Pollution in Estuary Sewage Overflow Sediment DisplacementFlooding Transfer of Polluted Sediment Contaminated Runoff Pathogens Contaminants Floatable Debris Increase in Extreme Events Increase in Temperature Increase in Sea Level Increase in Precipitation Evaporation Storm Water/ Snow Melt Runoff Air Borne Contaminants
- 34. Goal 1: Clean up Pollution in Estuary Sewage Overflow Sediment DisplacementFlooding Transfer of Polluted Sediment Contaminated Runoff Pathogens Contaminants Floatable Debris Increase in Extreme Events Increase in Temperature Increase in Sea Level Increase in Precipitation Evaporation Storm Water/ Snow Melt Runoff Air Borne Contaminants
- 35. Goal 1: Clean Up Pollution in the EstuaryEutrophicationModel - Scavia, D. et. Al. (2003). An Assessment of Coastal Hypoxia and Eutrophication in US Waters. National Science and Technology Council Committee on Environment and Natural Resources, p 11. Scavia (2003)
- 36. Habitat and Ecological Health Goal 2
- 37. Increase in Temperature Increase in Precipitation Goal 2: Habitat and Ecological Health Freshwater Discharge Migration Pattern Reproduction Increase in Sea Level Increase in Extreme Events Sediment Displacement Growth of aquatic vegetation Dissolved Oxygen Destruction of Natural Habitats Native Species Salinity Surface temperature Variability of Salt Front Position
- 38. Increase in Temperature Increase in Precipitation Goal 2: Habitat and Ecological Health Freshwater Discharge Migration Pattern Reproduction Increase in Sea Level Increase in Extreme Events Sediment Displacement Growth of aquatic vegetation Dissolved Oxygen Destruction of Natural Habitats Native Species Salinity Surface temperature Variability of Salt Front Position
- 39. Goal 2: Habitat and Ecological Health - Scavia, D., Field, J.C., Boesh, D.F., Buddemeier, R., Burkett, V., Cayan, D.R., Fogarty, M., Harwell, M.A., Howarth R.W. Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems ● Ocean circulation contributes to distribution and production of marine ecosystems ● Climate change can result in alterations in water flow due to temperature change, precipitation, runoff, salinity and wind. ● Result: change in overall distribution and abundance of organisms within ecosystem Increased Freshwater Flux Increased Stratification Increased Currents Decrease Vertical Nutrient Flux Enhanced biological productivity in some organisms and decreased productivity in others
- 40. - O’Connor, M (2012). Findings on American Shad and Striped Bass in the Hudson River Estuary: A Fish Community Study of the Long-Term Effects of Local Hydrology and Regional Climate Change. Marine and Coastal Fisheries, pg. 327 - 336 American Shad Striped Bass ● Purpose: Identify correlations among climate indices, freshwater flow, water temperature and fish abundances over time ● Procedure: Applied various statistical methods to collect data on 20 species-life history stages from 1974-2005 ● Conclusion: Population has changed over this period; long term decline in the diversity and stability of fish community Goal 2: Habitat and Ecological Health
- 41. Disturbance to Estuarine Equilibrium Reproduction Survival Increased Temperature Increased Precipitation Increased sea surface temperature Increased vulnerability to disease due to Parasites Oysters need intermediate salinities with moderate discharge conditions Decreased salinity in water Decreases growth and reproductive success Increased salinity in water Elevated oyster mortality - Jeffrey Levinton, Michael Doall, David Ralston, Adam Starke, Bassem Allam. (2011). “Climate Change Precipitation and Impacts on an Estuarine Refuge from Disease.” PLOSI ONE Goal 2: Habitat and Ecological Health
- 42. Increase in Temperature Increase in Precipitation Goal 2: Habitat and Ecological Health Freshwater Discharge Migration Pattern Reproduction Increase in Sea Level Increase in Extreme Events Sediment Displacement Growth of aquatic vegetation Dissolved Oxygen Destruction of Natural Habitats Native Species Salinity Surface temperature Variability of Salt Front Position
- 43. Increase in Temperature Increase in Precipitation Goal 2: Habitat and Ecological Health Freshwater Discharge Migration Pattern Reproduction Increase in Sea Level Increase in Extreme Events Sediment Displacement Growth of aquatic vegetation Dissolved Oxygen Destruction of Natural Habitats Native Species Salinity Surface temperature Variability of Salt Front Position
- 44. Goal 2: Habitat and Ecological Health - Nieder, William C., Barnaba, E., Findlay, S.E.G., Hoskins, S., Holochuck, N., Blair, E. (2004). Distribution and Abundance of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation and Trapa natans in the Hudson River Estuary. Journal of Coastal Research: Special Issue 45: pp. 150-161 William (2004)
- 45. Improve Public Access Part A: Opportunities Part B: Accessibility Part C: Land Acquisition and Restoration Goal 3
- 46. Goal 3: Improve Public Access FloodingUrban Heat Island Effect Increase in Temperature Increase in Extreme Events Increase in Precipitation Increase in Sea Level Water Quality Recreational and educational opportunities Infrastructure Available Land for Acquisition and Restoration Access to and from water Heat-Related Illness Heatwaves Coastal Erosion Combined Sewage Overflow
- 47. Goal 3: Improve Public Access FloodingUrban Heat Island Effect Increase in Temperature Increase in Extreme Events Increase in Precipitation Increase in Sea Level Water Quality Recreational and educational opportunities Infrastructure Available Land for Acquisition and Restoration Access to and from water Heat-Related Illness Heatwaves Coastal Erosion Combined Sewage Overflow
- 48. Goal 3.1: Opportunities - Juhl, A., O’Mullan, G.D., Young, S. (2013) Antibiotic Resistant Bacteria in the Hudson River Estuary linked to Wet Weather Sewage Contamination. Journal of Water and Health Vol 11 No 2 pp 297– 310. Heterotrophic Bacteria Heterotrophic Bacteria is found to be resistant to tetracycline and ampicillin Many antibiotics are being released through human and animal waste Results: 1. Resistant microbes found at all ten sampling sites 2. Concentration levels highest near shore and industrial areas Waste enters water during heavy storms or sewage overflow Mullan (2013)
- 49. Goal 3: Improve Public Access FloodingUrban Heat Island Effect Increase in Temperature Increase in Extreme Events Increase in Precipitation Increase in Sea Level Water Quality Recreational and educational opportunities Infrastructure Available Land for Acquisition and Restoration Access to and from water Heat-Related Illness Heatwaves Coastal Erosion Combined Sewage Overflow
- 50. Goal 3: Improve Public Access FloodingUrban Heat Island Effect Increase in Temperature Increase in Extreme Events Increase in Precipitation Increase in Sea Level Water Quality Recreational and educational opportunities Infrastructure Available Land for Acquisition and Restoration Access to and from water Heat-Related Illness Heatwaves Coastal Erosion Combined Sewage Overflow
- 51. Goal 3.1a: Opportunities & Public Health - Oleson, Monaghan, Wilhelmi, Barlage, Brunsell, Feddema, Hu, Steinhoff (2015). Interactions between urbanization, heat stress, and climate change Climate Change Vol. 129 (3) Monaghan (2015)
- 52. Goal 3: Improve Public Access FloodingUrban Heat Island Effect Increase in Temperature Increase in Extreme Events Increase in Precipitation Increase in Sea Level Water Quality Recreational and educational opportunities Infrastructure Available Land for Acquisition and Restoration Access to and from water Heat-Related Illness Heatwaves Coastal Erosion Combined Sewage Overflow
- 53. Goal 3: Improve Public Access FloodingUrban Heat Island Effect Increase in Temperature Increase in Extreme Events Increase in Precipitation Increase in Sea Level Water Quality Recreational and educational opportunities Infrastructure Available Land for Acquisition and Restoration Access to and from water Heat-Related Illness Heatwaves Coastal Erosion Combined Sewage Overflow
- 54. Goal 3.2: Accessibility - Blumberg, Alan; Herrington, Thomas; Yin, Larry; Georgas Nickitas. (2014). Street Scale Modeling of Storm Surge Inundation Along the New Jersey Hudson River Waterfront. New Jersey (USA). Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 32(8) pg. 1486-1497 Blumberg (2014)
- 55. - Atkinson, Matthew (1995). On the Wrong Side of the Railroad Tracks: Public Access to the Hudson River. Pace Environmental Law Review 13(2) pg. 747 - 834 - Mulvaney, Timothy; Weeks, Brian. (2007). "Waterlocked": Public Access to New Jersey's Coastline. California (USA). Ecology Law Quarterly (34) pg. 579 - 618 - Weinstein, Michael (2007). Linking Restoration Ecology and Ecological Restoration in Estuarine Landscapes. Estuaries and Coasts 30(2) pg. 365 - 370 ● Public Trust Doctrine: principle that certain natural resources belong to the public and are best in control of the government ● Restoration Ecology and Anthropocentric Goals Atkison (1995) Goal 3.2: Accessibility
- 56. Goal 4 Support an Economically and Ecologically Viable Port Part A: Sediment Quality Part B: Sediment Quantity Part C: Navigation
- 57. Goal 4 - Support an Economically and Environmentally Beneficial Port Increase in Extreme Weather Events Increase in Sea Level Increase in Precipitation Combined sewage overflow Contamination of water Contamination of new sediment More dredging Increase in Temperature Rail track buckling Container transportation issues Flooding Economic viability of the port Coastal erosion Damage to port infrastructure Damage to port infrastructure Wave impacts Damage to navigational patterns Shipping delays Cooling needs Deterioration of pavement Container temperature must be monitored Labor costs and breaks Re-suspension of existing material
- 58. Goal 4 - Support an Economically and Environmentally Beneficial Port Increase in Extreme Weather Events Increase in Sea Level Increase in Precipitation Combined sewage overflow Contamination of water Contamination of new sediment More dredging Increase in Temperature Rail track buckling Container transportation issues Flooding Economic viability of the port Coastal erosion Damage to port infrastructure Damage to port infrastructure Wave impacts Damage to navigational patterns Shipping delays Cooling needs Deterioration of pavement Container temperature must be monitored Labor costs and breaks Re-suspension of existing material
- 59. 4.1 Sediment Quality - D. J., Wilber, P., & Will, R. J. (2004). Beneficial Use of Dredged Material for Habitat Creation, Enhancement, and Restoration in New York–New Jersey Harbor. Journal of Environmental Management, 73(1), 39-52 Beneficial Use of Dredged Material Environmental Benefit Environmental Concern Creation of Artificial Reefs and Shoals Increase in nearshore and offshore fish production Navigational hazard Landfills/Brownfield Remediation Habitat for birds and wildlife species Transfer of contaminants and human health concerns Filling Dead End Basins and Canals Improved benthic habitats and water quality Urban infrastructure concerns Oyster Reef Restoration Creation of habitats for resident and transient finfish and crustaceans Navigational hazard, transfer of contaminants Creation/restoration of intertidal marshes and mudflats Increase in habitats for estuarine- dependent species Transfer of contaminants, navigational hazard, loss of shallow water habitat Creation of bird/wildlife islands Creating of nesting habitats for wading and shore birds and mammals Navigational hazard, habitat trade off, transfer of contaminants
- 60. - Ralston, David; Warner, John; Geyer, Rockwell. (2013). Sediment transport due to extreme events: The Hudson River estuary after tropical storms Irene and Lee. Geophysical Research Letters. pg 5451– 5455 - Geyer, Rockewell; Woodruff, Jonathan; Peter Traykovski. (2001). Sediment Transport and Trapping in the Hudson River Estuary. Massachusetts (USA). Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Storm Irene Storm Lee Ralston (2013) ● Global warming and climate change are predicted to increase the number of extreme weather events Following Irene and Lee, sediment input to the Hudson River was ~2.7 megatons (5 times the annual average) The increased concentrations of sediment in the Hudson River estuary was mainly due to the remobilization of bed sediment rather than new sediment 4.2 Sediment Quantity
- 61. Goal 4 - Support an Economically and Environmentally Beneficial Port Increase in Extreme Weather Events Increase in Sea Level Increase in Precipitation Combined sewage overflow Contamination of water Contamination of new sediment More dredging Increase in Temperature Rail track buckling Container transportation issues Flooding Economic viability of the port Coastal erosion Damage to port infrastructure Damage to port infrastructure Wave impacts Damage to navigational patterns Shipping delays Cooling needs Deterioration of pavement Container temperature must be monitored Labor costs and breaks Re-suspension of existing material
- 62. Goal 4 - Support an Economically and Environmentally Beneficial Port Increase in Extreme Weather Events Increase in Sea Level Increase in Precipitation Combined sewage overflow Contamination of water Contamination of new sediment More dredging Increase in Temperature Rail track buckling Container transportation issues Flooding Economic viability of the port Coastal erosion Damage to port infrastructure Damage to port infrastructure Wave impacts Damage to navigational patterns Shipping delays Cooling needs Deterioration of pavement Container temperature must be monitored Labor costs and breaks Re-suspension of existing material
- 63. - (2014) A Summary of Climate Change Impacts and Preparedness Opportunities for the Transportation Sector in New Jersey. Rutgers University: New Jersey Climate Adaptation Alliance. <http://climatechange.rutgers.edu/njadapt> - Burton, Ian, Spanger-Siegfried, Erika, Burton, Ian, Malone, Elizabeth, Huq, Saleemul. (2004) “Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures.” Development Programme United Nations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 4.3 Navigation Climate Impact New Jersey Waterway Risks Sea Level Rise, Flooding, and Storm Surge • Inundation of port low lying infrastructure • Sand deposition and sedimentation in navigable channels • Changes in navigational pathways (some channels may be more accessible to hip further inland and some could be adversely affected by sediment change) Extreme Weather Events • Damage to ports, electricity and navigational infrastructure • Weather related shipping delays and periodic interruptions in services
- 64. - Becker, Austin, (2010) Climate Change Adaptation: AAPA/LAPH Member Plans and Perceptions, Stanford University, California (USA). <http://aapa.files.cms- plus.com/SeminarPresentations/2010Seminars/10HNEGreenports/Becker_Austin.pdf> Web. Nov. 18 2015 4.3 Navigation Becker (2010) Impacts of climate change is something that needs to be addressed by the port community. I feel sufficiently informed about how climate change will impact my port operations.
- 65. Goal 5 Public Education and Community Involvement
- 66. How will communities be affected by climate change? Need for adaptation plans, mitigation strategies, and long term assessments. An overall positive impact due to deeper engagement with the threat of climate change. Increase in Extreme Weather Events Increase in Sea Level Increase in Precipitation Increase in Temperature Goal 5: Public Education and Community Involvement
- 67. Goal 5: Public Education and Community Involvement - Village of Piermont (2014). Resilience Roadmap: Planning for Piermont’s Future. Report of the Piermont Waterfront Resilience Task Force. Resilience Adaptation Long Term Planning and Implementation Fortification, Accommodation & Relocation Feasibility Desirability Immediate Actions Adaptation Alternatives Local vulnerability assessment conducted by the town of Piermont, New York in 2014. Positively enhancing public education and community involvement through planning.
- 68. - Connelly, Nancy, Barbara Knuth, and David Kay. Public Support for Ecosystem Restoration in the Hudson River Valley, USA. Environmental Management 29.4 (2002): 467-76. Springer Link. Objective Finding Reasoning Implication Is there greater support for HEP’s goals or specific actions? Generally greater support for goals than actions Careful consideration of costs and actions Anticipate who will support or oppose future actions and tailor future plans with this information How do beliefs and past behaviors influence implementation support? Concern (e.g. prior activism) for environment indicates greater support Prior demonstrated interest in restoration Determine respondents’ willingness to pay for specific actions Higher income and education level correlated with a willingness to pay Theory of Planned Behavior: information available shapes attitudes Goal 5: Public Education and Community Involvement
- 70. Article Organization - Key Words Stressors Goal Area of Impact “Increased Precipitation” “Temperature” “Sea Level Rise” “Extreme Events” “Goal 1” “Pollution” “Goal 2” “Ecological Health” “Goal 3” “Public Access” “Goal 4” “Viable Port” “Goal 5” “Community Involvement” “Global” “Regional” “Local”
- 71. Annotated Bibliography Example Yozzo, D. J., Wilber, P., & Will, R. J. (2004). Beneficial use of dredged material for habitat creation, enhancement, and restoration in New York–New Jersey Harbor. Journal of Environmental Management, 73(1), 39-52. Key Words: “Local,” “Goal 4”, “Viable Port” With the increasing growth of the Port of New York/New Jersey, there is a large push to increase the size of navigational pathways through dredging. In response, many environmentalists have responded with fear of the environmental effects dredging could have on local ecosystems. In order to counter these worries, the US Army Corps of Engineers in conjunction with the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANY/NJ) has compiled a comprehensive Dredged Material Management Plan (DMMP), which lists a variety of ways in which dredged material can be used in cost effective and environmentally beneficial manors. Examples of these ideas are: construction of artificial reefs, oyster reef restoration, intertidal wetland and mudflat creation, filling dead end basins/canals, etc. This article covers the environmental benefits and disadvantages, potential volumes and lastly the cost. All options are then compared in order to provide a comprehensive overview of potential options and the circumstances in which they would prove to be most beneficial.
- 72. Goal Action Vulnerability 1. Clean Up Pollution in Estuary A. Green Infrastructure B. Clean up Superfund Sites: Sediment decontamination processes C. SWEM modeling tool D. Reduce nitrogen emissions in air E. Water Quality Monitoring I. Subaquatic Vegetation II. Atmospheric PCB contamination III. Nitrogen Pollution from Agriculture, Municipal Sources (Runoff) 2. Habitat and Ecological Health A. Habitat Preservation B. Land Acquisition C. Restoration of Ecosystem Characteristics I. Freshwater Discharge II. Salinity Levels III. Monitoring Estuary Equilibrium IV. Monitoring Invasive Species 3. Public Access A. Promote accessibility points I. Decreased Land Availability: Results of Flooding, Erosion, Sea Level Rise 4. Support an Economically and Ecologically Viable Port A. Develop Sediment Quality Maps B. Re-establish USGS River Data Stations C. Creation of new monitoring systems D. Development of plans for dredged materials I. Damages to Port Infrastructure II. Costs and Effects of Cooling Processes III. Coastal Erosion IV. Wave Impacts 5. Public Education and Community Involvement A. Keep elected officials informed B. Provide grants to nonprofits to continue education programs I. TBD Vulnerability Assessment: Basic Outline
- 73. Reflection
- 74. Questions?
Editor's Notes
- These are the goals that were presented to us in the beginning of the semester Taken these goals and organized our background research around how the goals will be affected Studied policy and science research from the global to local level
- Summary of group's goals and the items they created in order to achieve these goals
- Depicts the process we used from moving from the research to how we created the concept maps Includes: consultants, background papers and case studies
- As found in our research, we identified various effects of climate change which specifically may impact the Hudson River Estuary
- The team worked to combine NY panel on climate change and IPCC terms Hoped to simplify the concepts and definitions into 5 key terms
- Depicts how the newly combined definitions/terms relate to the selected stressors
- Provides a quick summary on statistics for stressors in both 2020 and 2100 Temperature increase, extreme weather events, increase in precipitation, and increase in sea level were stressors of focus becausewe felt they were the most relevant to the HEP (most direct impacts)
- RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways): various projections created by IPCC based on future concentrations of greenhouse gases 39 models combined and averaged out to create RCP 8.5 temperature projections to 2100 32 models combined and averaged out to create RCP 2.6 temperature projections to 2100 Globally: in worst case scenario, projected 4 degree C increase in temp by 2100
- Graph shows different projections of temperature in NYC to 2100 RCP = representative concentration pathways (projections based on greenhouse gas emissions) All projections show average annual temperature to increase
- New Jersey Temperature history (1900-2010) Historical increase in temperature can be seen here as well Could not find future projections for New Jersey, so we relied on historical trends when possible
- Wet regions will become wetter, while dry lands will become dryer
- Shows different projections of annual rainfall to 2100 Shows a variety of potential outcomes to climate change (low to high estimates) All projections show overall increase in rainfall
- New Jersey historical annual rainfall Depicts no overall trend of increased precipitation, but wettest year on record was recent (2011)
- In worst case scenario, average global sea level will increase by 0.75 m
- 100-year flood: based on previous data, 100-yr flood has 100-yr recurrence interval (1% chance of happening in any year) Floodplain: area affected by 100-yr flood Graph shows current and projected flood plains Because of the projected increase in precipitation and sea level rise, floodplain will be further inland
- Only set of projections found for New Jersey Sea level rise projections for 2050 (best estimate): 44mm Sea level rise projections for 2100 (best estimate): 112mm
- Extreme weather: Focus on increase in magnitude for certain extreme events (especially coastal storms) because changes in frequency debated, not globally uniform Very likely: heatwaves will be more frequent and longer, with occasional cold extremes Very likely: extreme precipitation events over mid-latitude land masses and over wet tropical regions more intense and more frequent
- Information in graph is adapted from the information found in NY Panel of Climate Change (2015)
- Above information is synthesized data from the NYPCC report and used projections to 2080 Shows: The number of days/per certain event will happen compared to statistical baseline in blue The number of heatwaves (period of 90+ degree weather lasting 3 or more days)will increase How long these heat waves will last and increas The number of days where temperatures will reach/exceed 90 degrees and 100 degrees will increase That there will be fewer days below freezing There will more days with rainfall at/above 1 in, 2 in, even 4 in
- The following synthesizes and presents a variety of articles related to each specific goal Structure: concept maps and then sources to back up information
- Complexities between stressors and their impacts Plus signs = Increase
- Increase in evaporation leads to an increase in Air Borne Contaminants, refers to atmospheric PCBs
- Graph shows atmospheric PCB congener concentrations at various locations Shows the rate of travel from originating source
- PCBs released into the river from industrial practices (mostly linked to GE in the mid-late 1900s) PCBs have drastic effect on fish, plant, and human populations Relevance to the project Important to know about this problem because of the health threats Found that with a changing atmosphere (CC), PCB behavior may change
- Increase in Extreme Events, Increase in Sea Level and Increase in Precipitation lead to an increase in sediment displacement and therefore an increase in the transfer of polluted sediments to different areas along the Hudson
- Context: article looked at distribution of various metals in the hudson (concerned with toxic metals) Explored suspended vs. bottom sediments Findings: metal concentrations peak at various locations throughout the Hudson: mainly industrial/metropolitan areas- looking at the mile markers of the hudson river- the peaks can be identified as (NYC and Haverstraw Bay near the Tapanzee) As land use changes → metal concentrations can increase More storms → more wide distribution of metals
- Increase in Extreme Events, Increase in Sea Level and Increase in Precipitation lead to increased flooding and increased sewage overflow which leads to an increase in contaminated runoff such as floatable debris, pathogens and contaminants
- Shown above is a Eutrophication Model “Note that low dissolved oxygen is not a direct response to nutrient inputs but rather is a symptom that follows a progression that begins with nutrient inputs. The direct response is elevated algal production (the first indication that there may be a problem with nutrient enrichment) that may cause low dissolved oxygen conditions in bottom waters. Note also that there are other symptoms, loss of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (SAV), and occurrences of nuisance and toxic algal blooms, which indicate a more advanced nutrient enrichment problem.” ( Bricker et al. 1999)
- The paper summarizes the effects of various climate change stressors on coastal and marine resources Must recognize that effects will vary place to place Other stressors besides climate change may affect the ecosystem Ex. pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, etc. Specific forces of climate change: Sea level change Coastal storms Freshwater inflow Ocean temperature and ice extent Ocean circulation Increased stratification, decrease vertical nutrient flux and increased currents will all lead to either enhancing or decreasing the productivity of some organisms
- The purpose of this article was to identify how the effects of climate change impacted certain fish communities. Effects of climate change include: changes in freshwater flow, changes in water temperature The conclusion was that there was a decline in the American Shad abundance and an increase in the striped bass community.
- Within the estuary, equilibrium must be maintained in regards to salinity and water temperature. Increased temperature due to climate change leads to an increase in the sea surface temperature which can have negative effects on the estuary’s living organisms For example: the oyster population is negatively affected by climate change because an increase in sea surface temperature leads to higher chance of contracting diseases due to parasites. Changes in estuary salinity due to an increase in precipitation can lead to decreases in growth and reproductive success of organisms including oysters.
- The submerged plants are important components of the estuary The grass beds are nurseries for young fish and food for waterfowl They filter the water and trap suspended sediments They enrich the water with oxygen through photosynthesis they shelter diverse invertebrate organisms, fish and wildlife The absence of the SAV could could have broad repercussions on the ecological web.
- Antibiotic Resistant Bacteria poses health risks to people who use the river Because of the way we use antibiotics in our daily lives-- much of it is being released through human and animal waste. During heavy storms or sewage overflow events, waste can enter the river Repeated exposure can potentially make people resistant to certain types of antibiotics Waste water treatment plants are somewhat ineffective at catching and filtering anti-biotic bacteria → there for this but sometimes slip through Findings: The study found that levels were highest near shore which could pose a problem to public access points along the river Levels were also highest near highly industrial areas such as laguardia airport and the pier on 125th street which is located near one of the older wastewater treatment plans
- Extreme heat events are leading cause for weather-related mortality in U.S. As temperatures increase due to climate change, risk of heat stress increases Especially true for urban areas due to urban heat island effect (metropolitan areas are warmer than surrounding areas) Cities studied: Houston, Phoenix, Toronto, New York Also studied relation between urban density and urban heat index Green bar: present-day rural Light blue: present-day urban Dark blue: medium-density rural Red: Medium-density urban Findings: Frequency of high heat stress days and high heat stress nights (determined as days and nights with temperature at/above the 95% statistical average) increases due to urban density
- Scientists created inundation model tested for accuracy using observations of flooding after Hurricane Sandy in Hoboken, Bayonne, Jersey City, and Weehawken, NJ Flood paths of each city showed that inland flooding mainly came from a few points Simulation showed that floodwalls at these points would significantly decrease flooding of each city
- Legal journal articles (first two citations) describe legal history of public access to the Hudson River Both emphasize that land along Hudson should continue to be available for public access Public access should not be hindered by any private landowners (companies, people) Estuaries usually deemed to be under the public trust Weinstein (2007): Land restoration and acquisition of estuaries increasingly neglect ecological factors, focusing more on human-centered desires (ie: industry) Need to be a balance between ecological function and sustainable human practices Urban-industrial estuaries: estuarine systems that heavily support human populations and practices Losses of biodiversity in these estuaries likely irreversible Caters to human (societal, cultural) criteria Hudson River Estuary deemed to be urban-industrial estuary Production Estuaries: Emphasis on sustainable harvest Culture of estuarine-dependent species Conservation Estuaries Minimal human impact, mostly undisturbed
- Harbor of new york/new jersey is one of the largest in the east coast (755 miles of coast). Because of its large economic presence there is much contention over balancing the economic and ecological factors
- With regards to goal 4, there are both direct and indirect effects of climate change: Direct effects Increase in precipitation, extreme weather events and sea level Leads to issues with CSO, flooding, coastal erosion and wave impacts Can hurt the estuary environment through pollution and sediment Causes the re-suspension of existing material (may be polluted) Hurts the economic viability of the port through damage to port infrastructure, navigational patterns and shipping delays Damage to port infrastructure may lead to the port closing down for a period of time May occur from coastal erosion and wave impacts Damage to navigational patterns will lead to more dredging - this will cause other issues Indirect effects Increase in temperature will cause delays or closing of the port Example: Container transportation issues will lead to rail track buckling and the deterioration of the pavement Will make it harder, if not impossible, to transport containers May close down port Example: cooling needs will cause an increase in the amount of the breaks workers legally require and that container temperature will need to be monitored Both will increase cost to port
- Increase in precipitation, extreme weather events and sea level will lead to flooding and combined sewage overflow (CSO) This will affect sediment contamination and more sediment Leads to dredging Leads to the re-suspension of existing material This may be contaminated
- Dredging is a response to an increase in sediment and contaminated sediment Before considering any of these ideas, studies must be conducted on the characteristics of the sediment (toxicity, size, chemistry, etc) How creating navigational pathways has affected ecosystems Scale ideas on cost, environmental benefits/costs, implementation process, placement capacity Very positive spin - potentially made my lobbyists? It is produced by a dredging company Many of the issues they are trying to solve (habitat destruction, wastelands, pollution) will only get worse as climate change continues Economic and environmental factors must be weighed Must consider: cost, environmental costs/benefits, implementation process, placement capacity
- Exploring the effect of sediment within the hudson Extreme increases following storms (2.7 megatons after lee and irene; 5 times annual average) A lot of sediment will remain in the rivers, rather than the heart of the estuary (very unexpected) → there was not enough flow after the first few days to keep the sediment in motion Whether an estuary empties out or remains deep is dependent on the balance between sediment entering/leaving and on water inputs from rivers/from sea level rise The amount of sediment is based on climate conditions, catchment (water, land and vegetation conditions) and volume of freshwater output High water flow velocity = increase in sediment transport Dredging has a huge effect on altering water velocity/sediment balance
- Increase in precipitation, extreme weather events and sea level will cause flooding, coastal erosion and wave impacts Specifically, they will affect the economic viability of the port because of damage to port infrastructure, damage to navigational patterns and shipping delays This may cause the port to close down
- *Rutgers has released a summary of how climate change affects transportation (planes, ports, planes, etc.) Selected 2 specific climate impacts (sea level rise/flooding/storm surge and extreme weather events) as they were the most related to our goals Sea level, flooding and storm surge will lead to the following effects in the New Jersey Waterway: Inundation of port low lying infrastructure Sand deposition in navigable channels May lead to an increase in dredging Changes in navigational pathways May lead to an increase in dredging Extreme weather events Damage to ports, electricity and navigational infrastructure may cause the port to shut down Weather related shipping delays and periodic interruptions in services May lead to loss of income for the port
- The graph above shows the impact of education on ports Interviewed 93 port managers to see what they know 81% of ports said that climate change is something that needs to be addressed by the port community From research it is clear that this should be all ports Only 31% feel they sufficiently have an understanding of how climate change will impact port operations Provides much room for growth
- Disclaimer: this was the most difficult concept map for us to make Trying to relate scientific climate stressors to the abstract concept of education Explanation: Went with the assumption that all four climate stressors will increase the need for community adaptation plans, mitigation strategies, and long term planning assessments. As a result, climate change has a positive impact on public education and community involvement because the sense of urgency is increased to find solutions and plan for their town’s future.
- Piermont is a perfect example of how climate change positively impacts this goal Created a local “task force” to put together vulnerability assessment Broke the assessment into Resilience, Adaptation, and Long Term Planning/Implementation Resilience: for the community itself The reality of climate change can cause fear and worry in people Ensuring the community can remain strong throughout this process Adaptation Proposed three possible adaptation scenarios 1) Fortification (e.g. build flood gates) 2) Accommodation (e.g. restoration of wetlands) 3) Relocation (e.g. physically move the buildings) Within each of these, they assessed their feasibility (i.e. economics) and desirability (whether or not the people of Piermont would be on board with the solution). Long term planning and implementation a) Immediate actions Solutions that would take effect immediately once the report was published (mostly smaller solutions) b) Adaptation alternatives Building on the adaptation scenarios and proposing specific solutions Playing with the idea of how these scenarios could work within Piermont Piermont gives a good example of how climate change positively influences both climate change education and community involvement => the town rallied together to take action and protect the future of their town.
- A 2002 study attempting to gauge public support for Hudson River restoration using the goals of the latest HEP Action Plan. 3 objectives of the study and their findings: 1) Is there more support for the HEP’s 5 goals or for the specific actions proposed within each goal? Found that more people supported the goal itself, rather than the solutions given within each goal Reason: once people considered costs (e.g. economic costs) of the actions, they did not fully support the action but still supported the idea of the goal 2) How do past beliefs and behaviors (related to environmentalism) influence support for the specific actions Prior demonstrated concern (i.e. activism) for the environment is correlated with more support for the HEP’s actions 3) What are the respondents’ willingness to pay for these specific actions? Those in a higher education and income bracket are more willing to pay for the specific actions Reason: theory of planned behavior (the model used to gauge support for Hudson River restoration) Theory: the information available to the public will shape the attitudes and behaviors in relation to a specific cause (in this case, climate change and river restoration) People of a higher income/education bracket have greater access to and are more informed of this information (regarding climate change and threats the to the Hudson), and thus makes sense that they are more willing to pay for specific actions. Overall, this helps organizations like the HEP anticipate who will be supportive of their actions and who will oppose them Can incorporate this understanding into future plans
- The annotated bibliography is one of our final products to the HEP. Did a comprehensive scientific literature review of climate change topics, from the global to the local level. Compiled these papers throughout the semester into this final document.
- Organization of the annotated bibliography: Listed alphabetically by source. Used keywords to identify how each source was related to the HEP goals Four identified stressors The HEP goals Global, regional, or local area of impact
- Example of an entry from the annotated bibliography Format: Give the citation in APA format (bolded) Keywords are given beneath The abstract is either taken directly from the article (if it is, it’s in quotations) or a summary of the article is written
- Summary of key points for the vulnerability assessment Vulnerability Outlines what is missing from Action Plans
- Reflection: looking back at semester, project process, what we could have done better, etc More systematic way of conducting research at the beginning Very Broad Topic: more focus early on→ organize by goals