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Daily Commodity Outlook

                                                                                                                      25th November 2011

                                                                    MCX GOLD (DEC 11) - Gold opened lower at 28730. Incidentally,
                       Gold          Silver           Crude
                      (5 Dec-11)    (5 Dec-11)      (19 Dec-11)
                                                                    this was also the highest traded price for the day. It moved lower to
                                                                    touch an intra-day low of 28518. However, it managed to bounce
 Open                    28,730         55,657           5,072      back from the lows of the day to ended the day with modest losses
 High                    28,730         55,768           5,072      to close at 28549.

 Low                     28,518         55,042           5,026      The RSI remains placed below its average, which would lead to
 Close                   28,549         55,251           5,062      selling pressure. However, the Stochastic is placed above its
                                                                    average, which would lead to intermediate bouts of short covering
 Prev. Close             28,780         55,846           5,074
                                                                    and selective buying support. However, it is nearing the over bought
 % Change                -0.80%        -1.07%           -0.24%      zone. The ADX, +DI and -DI line are moving sideways, indicating a
                                                                    range bound trend. MCX GOLD faces resistance at 28960, 29212,
Source – MCX
                                                                    29500 and 30000, while the supports are placed at 28152, 27954,
                                                                    26768 and 26000 levels.
                       Volume (In 000's)

                      24/11/2011    23/11/2011          % Chg.      MCX SILVER (DEC 11) - Silver opened lower at 55657. It moved
                                                                    lower to touch an intra-day low of 54703 on back of sustained
 Gold (gms)             20,545.0      51,423.0         -60.05%      selling pressure. However, it managed to bounce back from the
 Silver (kgs)            1,026.6       2,565.6         -59.99%      lows of day to touch an intra-day high of 55768. It ended the day
                                                                    with modest losses to close at 55251.
 Crude (bbl)             8,770.8      23,322.5         -62.39%
Source – MCX                                                        The RSI is placed below its average, which would lead to further
                                                                    selling pressure. However, the Stochastic is already placed above
                      Turnover (In Lacs)                            its average, which would lead to buying support at lower levels. The
                                                                    ADX, -DI and +DI line are moving sideways, indicating a range
                      24/11/2011    23/11/2011          % Chg.      bound trend. MCX Silver faces resistance at 61708, 61884 and
Gold                   587,122.5   1,472,961.8         -60.14%
                                                                    64605 levels, while the supports are placed at 54754, 52725, 52365
                                                                    and 51226 levels.
Silver                 568,472.4   1,422,851.6         -60.05%

Crude                  442,379.3   1,177,741.4         -62.44%
                                                                    MCX CRUDE (DEC 11) - Crude opened lower at 5072 level.
                                                                    Incidentally, this was also the highest traded price for the day. It
Source – MCX                                                        moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 5026 on back of sustained
                                                                    selling pressure. However, it managed to bounce back from the
                   Global Market (Nymex - $)                        lows of day to end the day with modest losses to close at 5062.
                      25/11/2011    24/11/2011          % Chg.
                                                                    The RSI is placed below its average, which would lead to further
Gold (oz)                  1,698           1,706        -0.47%      selling pressure. However, the Stochastic is placed above its
                                                                    average, which would lead to buying support at lower levels. The
Silver (oz)                31.88           31.96        -0.25%
                                                                    ADX and –DI line are moving sideways, but +DI line is still placed at
Crude (bbl)                96.39           96.17         0.23%      34.94 indicating buyers have an upper hand. It faces resistance at
Dollar Index               79.24           79.13         0.14%      5174, 5200 and 5250 levels, while the supports are placed at 4889,
                                                                    4618, 4493 and 4291 levels.
Source – www.cmegroup.com

                                                                                  Intra-day Resistance                            Intra-day Support
  Commodities                      Close         Pivot Point            R1                 R2       R3             S1              S2         S3

 CRUDE DEC 11                       5062                5053           5081           5099        5145           5035            5007        4961

   GOLD DEC 11                     28549              28599          28680           28811       29023          28468          28387        28175

 SILVER DEC 11                     55251              55354          55665           56080       56806          54939          54628        53902


                                                                   Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              th
            4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                  www.keynotecapitals.com
US Economic Calendar:

       Friday                       Monday                       Tuesday                     Wednesday                     Thursday
       Nov. 25                      Nov. 28                      Nov. 29                      Nov. 30                       Dec. 01
                                                                                      Pending Home Sales
Weekly Bill Settlement     New Home Sales                Consumer Confidence                                        New Home Sales
                                                                                      Index
                                                         ICSC-Goldman Store           EIA Petroleum Status          4-Week Bill
Money Supply Data          6-Month Bill Auction
                                                         Sales                        Report                        Announcement
                           4-Week Bill                   FHFA House Price             ADP Employment
Fed Balance Sheet                                                                                                   6-Month Bill Auction
                           Announcement                  Index                        Report




                                                            Keynote Capitals Ltd.
          th
         4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                          www.keynotecapitals.com
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                                                             Keynote Capitals Ltd.
          th
         4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                          www.keynotecapitals.com

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Daily Commodity Outlook and US Economic Calendar

  • 1. Daily Commodity Outlook 25th November 2011 MCX GOLD (DEC 11) - Gold opened lower at 28730. Incidentally, Gold Silver Crude (5 Dec-11) (5 Dec-11) (19 Dec-11) this was also the highest traded price for the day. It moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 28518. However, it managed to bounce Open 28,730 55,657 5,072 back from the lows of the day to ended the day with modest losses High 28,730 55,768 5,072 to close at 28549. Low 28,518 55,042 5,026 The RSI remains placed below its average, which would lead to Close 28,549 55,251 5,062 selling pressure. However, the Stochastic is placed above its average, which would lead to intermediate bouts of short covering Prev. Close 28,780 55,846 5,074 and selective buying support. However, it is nearing the over bought % Change -0.80% -1.07% -0.24% zone. The ADX, +DI and -DI line are moving sideways, indicating a range bound trend. MCX GOLD faces resistance at 28960, 29212, Source – MCX 29500 and 30000, while the supports are placed at 28152, 27954, 26768 and 26000 levels. Volume (In 000's) 24/11/2011 23/11/2011 % Chg. MCX SILVER (DEC 11) - Silver opened lower at 55657. It moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 54703 on back of sustained Gold (gms) 20,545.0 51,423.0 -60.05% selling pressure. However, it managed to bounce back from the Silver (kgs) 1,026.6 2,565.6 -59.99% lows of day to touch an intra-day high of 55768. It ended the day with modest losses to close at 55251. Crude (bbl) 8,770.8 23,322.5 -62.39% Source – MCX The RSI is placed below its average, which would lead to further selling pressure. However, the Stochastic is already placed above Turnover (In Lacs) its average, which would lead to buying support at lower levels. The ADX, -DI and +DI line are moving sideways, indicating a range 24/11/2011 23/11/2011 % Chg. bound trend. MCX Silver faces resistance at 61708, 61884 and Gold 587,122.5 1,472,961.8 -60.14% 64605 levels, while the supports are placed at 54754, 52725, 52365 and 51226 levels. Silver 568,472.4 1,422,851.6 -60.05% Crude 442,379.3 1,177,741.4 -62.44% MCX CRUDE (DEC 11) - Crude opened lower at 5072 level. Incidentally, this was also the highest traded price for the day. It Source – MCX moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 5026 on back of sustained selling pressure. However, it managed to bounce back from the Global Market (Nymex - $) lows of day to end the day with modest losses to close at 5062. 25/11/2011 24/11/2011 % Chg. The RSI is placed below its average, which would lead to further Gold (oz) 1,698 1,706 -0.47% selling pressure. However, the Stochastic is placed above its average, which would lead to buying support at lower levels. The Silver (oz) 31.88 31.96 -0.25% ADX and –DI line are moving sideways, but +DI line is still placed at Crude (bbl) 96.39 96.17 0.23% 34.94 indicating buyers have an upper hand. It faces resistance at Dollar Index 79.24 79.13 0.14% 5174, 5200 and 5250 levels, while the supports are placed at 4889, 4618, 4493 and 4291 levels. Source – www.cmegroup.com Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Commodities Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 CRUDE DEC 11 5062 5053 5081 5099 5145 5035 5007 4961 GOLD DEC 11 28549 28599 28680 28811 29023 28468 28387 28175 SILVER DEC 11 55251 55354 55665 56080 56806 54939 54628 53902 Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. US Economic Calendar: Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Nov. 25 Nov. 28 Nov. 29 Nov. 30 Dec. 01 Pending Home Sales Weekly Bill Settlement New Home Sales Consumer Confidence New Home Sales Index ICSC-Goldman Store EIA Petroleum Status 4-Week Bill Money Supply Data 6-Month Bill Auction Sales Report Announcement 4-Week Bill FHFA House Price ADP Employment Fed Balance Sheet 6-Month Bill Auction Announcement Index Report Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com