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Daily Commodity Outlook

                                                                                                                     23rd November 2011

                                                                 MCX GOLD (DEC 11) - Gold opened higher at 28485. It moved
                     Gold           Silver         Crude
                   (5 Dec-11)    (5 Dec-11)      (19 Dec-11)
                                                                 lower to touch an intra-day low of 28470. However, it managed to
                                                                 bounce back from the lows of the day to touch an intra-day high of
 Open                  28,485         54,523          5,034      28820. It ended the day with modest gains to close at 28799.
 High                  28,820         57,180          5,156

 Low                   28,470         54,523          5,034      The RSI remains placed below its average, which would lead to
                                                                 selling pressure. However, the Stochastic has moved above its
 Close                 28,799         57,052          5,142      average, which would lead to intermediate bouts of short covering
 Prev. Close           28,446         54,413          5,038      and selective buying support. The ADX, +DI and -DI line are
                                                                 moving sideways, indicating a range bound trend. MCX GOLD
 % Change               1.24%         4.85%           2.06%
                                                                 faces resistance at 28960, 29212, 29500 and 30000, while the
Source – MCX                                                     supports are placed at 28152, 27954, 26768 and 26000 levels.

                    Volume (In 000's)                            MCX SILVER (DEC 11) - Silver opened higher at 54523.
                   22/11/2011    21/11/2011          % Chg.
                                                                 Incidentally, this was also the lowest point of the day. It moved
                                                                 higher to touch an intra-day high of 57180. It ended the day with
Gold (grms)          44,011.0       58,592.0        -24.89%      large gains to close at 57052
Silver (kgs)           2,360.1       2,474.6         -4.63%

Crude (bbl)          24,615.2       22,710.1          8.39%
                                                                 The RSI has moved above its average. Moreso, the Stochastic is
                                                                 already placed above its average. Both these conditions would
Source – MCX                                                     lead to buying support. The ADX and +DI line are moving sideways
                                                                 but – DI line is placed at the 31.65 level and indicating sellers have
                   Turnover (In Lacs)                            an upper hand. MCX Silver faces resistance at 61708, 61884 and
                                                                 64605 levels, while the supports are placed at 54754, 52725,
                   22/11/2011    21/11/2011          % Chg.
                                                                 52365 and 51226 levels.
Gold               1,261,663.6   1,679,003.9        -24.86%

Silver             1,315,866.9   1,350,316.8         -2.55%      MCX CRUDE (DEC 11) - Crude opened lower at 5034 level. It
                                                                 moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 4967. Incidentally, this
Crude              1,258,714.2   1,138,645.8         10.54%      was also the lowest point of the day. It moved higher to touch an
Source – MCX                                                     intra-day high of 5156. It ended the day with handsome gains to
                                                                 close at 5142.
               Global Market (Nymex - $)

                   23/11/2011    22/11/2011          % Chg.
                                                                 The RSI and Stochastic have moved above their respective
                                                                 averages, which is a positive sign and would lead to intermediate
Gold (oz)            1,707.50       1,702.40          0.30%      bouts of buying support. The ADX and –DI line are moving
Silver (oz)             32.53            32.95       -1.29%      sideways, but +DI line is still placed at 39.54 indicating buyers have
                                                                 an upper hand. It faces resistance at 5174 5200 and 5250 levels,
Crude (bbl)             96.95            98.01       -1.08%      while the supports are placed at 4889, 4618, 4493 and 4291 levels.
Dollar Index            78.46            78.24        0.29%

Source – www.cmegroup.com

                                                                       Intra-day Resistance                           Intra-day Support
 Commodities                Close            Pivot Point          R1            R2              R3             S1             S2            S3

 CRUDE DEC 11                     5142                5111          5187           5233           5355           5065            4989        4867

 GOLD DEC 11                     28799               28696        28923           29046          29396          28573          28346        27996

 SILVER DEC 11                   57052               56252        57980           58909          61566          55323          53595        50938


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            4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
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US Economic Calendar:

     Wednesday                     Friday                       Monday                       Tuesday                     Wednesday
      Nov. 23                      Nov. 25                      Nov. 28                      Nov. 29                      Nov. 30
                                                                                                                   Pending Home Sales
Jobless Claims Data       Weekly Bill Settlement        New Home Sales               Consumer Confidence
                                                                                                                   Index
                                                                                     ICSC-Goldman Store            EIA Petroleum Status
Durable Goods Orders      Money Supply Data             6-Month Bill Auction
                                                                                     Sales                         Report
Personal Income and                                     4-Week Bill                  FHFA House Price              ADP Employment
                          Fed Balance Sheet
Outlays                                                 Announcement                 Index                         Report

Consumer Sentiment




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        4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
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Daily Commodity Outlook and Global Market Summary

  • 1. Daily Commodity Outlook 23rd November 2011 MCX GOLD (DEC 11) - Gold opened higher at 28485. It moved Gold Silver Crude (5 Dec-11) (5 Dec-11) (19 Dec-11) lower to touch an intra-day low of 28470. However, it managed to bounce back from the lows of the day to touch an intra-day high of Open 28,485 54,523 5,034 28820. It ended the day with modest gains to close at 28799. High 28,820 57,180 5,156 Low 28,470 54,523 5,034 The RSI remains placed below its average, which would lead to selling pressure. However, the Stochastic has moved above its Close 28,799 57,052 5,142 average, which would lead to intermediate bouts of short covering Prev. Close 28,446 54,413 5,038 and selective buying support. The ADX, +DI and -DI line are moving sideways, indicating a range bound trend. MCX GOLD % Change 1.24% 4.85% 2.06% faces resistance at 28960, 29212, 29500 and 30000, while the Source – MCX supports are placed at 28152, 27954, 26768 and 26000 levels. Volume (In 000's) MCX SILVER (DEC 11) - Silver opened higher at 54523. 22/11/2011 21/11/2011 % Chg. Incidentally, this was also the lowest point of the day. It moved higher to touch an intra-day high of 57180. It ended the day with Gold (grms) 44,011.0 58,592.0 -24.89% large gains to close at 57052 Silver (kgs) 2,360.1 2,474.6 -4.63% Crude (bbl) 24,615.2 22,710.1 8.39% The RSI has moved above its average. Moreso, the Stochastic is already placed above its average. Both these conditions would Source – MCX lead to buying support. The ADX and +DI line are moving sideways but – DI line is placed at the 31.65 level and indicating sellers have Turnover (In Lacs) an upper hand. MCX Silver faces resistance at 61708, 61884 and 64605 levels, while the supports are placed at 54754, 52725, 22/11/2011 21/11/2011 % Chg. 52365 and 51226 levels. Gold 1,261,663.6 1,679,003.9 -24.86% Silver 1,315,866.9 1,350,316.8 -2.55% MCX CRUDE (DEC 11) - Crude opened lower at 5034 level. It moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 4967. Incidentally, this Crude 1,258,714.2 1,138,645.8 10.54% was also the lowest point of the day. It moved higher to touch an Source – MCX intra-day high of 5156. It ended the day with handsome gains to close at 5142. Global Market (Nymex - $) 23/11/2011 22/11/2011 % Chg. The RSI and Stochastic have moved above their respective averages, which is a positive sign and would lead to intermediate Gold (oz) 1,707.50 1,702.40 0.30% bouts of buying support. The ADX and –DI line are moving Silver (oz) 32.53 32.95 -1.29% sideways, but +DI line is still placed at 39.54 indicating buyers have an upper hand. It faces resistance at 5174 5200 and 5250 levels, Crude (bbl) 96.95 98.01 -1.08% while the supports are placed at 4889, 4618, 4493 and 4291 levels. Dollar Index 78.46 78.24 0.29% Source – www.cmegroup.com Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Commodities Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 CRUDE DEC 11 5142 5111 5187 5233 5355 5065 4989 4867 GOLD DEC 11 28799 28696 28923 29046 29396 28573 28346 27996 SILVER DEC 11 57052 56252 57980 58909 61566 55323 53595 50938 Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. US Economic Calendar: Wednesday Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Nov. 23 Nov. 25 Nov. 28 Nov. 29 Nov. 30 Pending Home Sales Jobless Claims Data Weekly Bill Settlement New Home Sales Consumer Confidence Index ICSC-Goldman Store EIA Petroleum Status Durable Goods Orders Money Supply Data 6-Month Bill Auction Sales Report Personal Income and 4-Week Bill FHFA House Price ADP Employment Fed Balance Sheet Outlays Announcement Index Report Consumer Sentiment Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com