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Daily Commodity Outlook

                                                                                                                     26th September 2011

                                                             MCX GOLD (OCT 11) - Gold opened higher at 26400. Though, it
                    Gold         Silver         Crude
                   (5 Oct-11)   (5 Dec-11)     (19 Oct-11)   moved higher to touch 26793. Profit taking and selling pressure was
                                                             witnessed at higher levels. It closed at 26716 level.
Open                   26400         52056           3963

High                   26793         54377           4030    The RSI and Stochastic are placed below their respective averages,
Low                    26293         51950           3951    which would result in regular bouts of selling pressure. However, the
                                                             Stochastic is placed near the over sold zone, which would lead to
Close                  26716         53726           4002
                                                             regular bouts of short covering. The ADX, +DI line and –DI line are
Prev. Close            26184         52365           3972    moving sideways indicating a range bound trend. MCX GOLD faces
% Change               2.03%         2.60%          0.76%    resistance at 27964, 28235, 28525, 28744 levels, while the supports
Source – MCX
                                                             are placed at 26376, 26184 and 25512 levels.

                                                             MCX SILVER (DEC 11) - Silver opened lower at 52056. Short
                   Volume (In 000's)                         covering and selective buying was witnessed. Silver moved higher at
                   24/9/2011    23/9/2011       % Chg.       54377. Profit taking and selling pressure at higher levels. It ended the
                                                             day with modest gains to close at 53726.
Gold (grms)          10,419.0    108,870.0        -90.43%

Silver (kgs)            491.3       4,148.9       -88.16%    The RSI and Stochastic are placed below their respective average’s,
                                                             which would lead to further selling pressure. However, the RSI and
Crude (bbl)             747.7      26,614.8       -97.19%
                                                             Stochastic are placed in the over sold zone, which would lead to
Source – MCX                                                 regular bouts of short covering. The –DI line is on verge of a
                                                             breakout, while ADX and +DI line has moved higher and is placed
                   Turnover (In Lacs)                        above the 30 level, indicating sellers have an upper hand. MCX
                                                             Silver faces resistance at 54377, 56981 and 61708 levels, while the
                   24/9/2011    23/9/2011       % Chg.       supports are placed at 52365, 51352 and 49807 levels.
Gold                277,161.7 2,958,418.0         -90.63%
                                                             MCX CRUDE (OCT 11) - Crude opened lower at 3963 level, but
Silver              260,929.3 2,400,162.9         -89.13%
                                                             moved higher to touch 4030 level. It ended the day to close with
Crude                29,877.9 1,057,329.5         -97.17%    modest gains at 4002 level.
Source – MCX
                                                             The RSI and the Stochastic are placed below respective average’s,
                                                             which is a negative sign and would lead to regular bouts of selling
              Global Market (Nymex - $)                      pressure. However, the Stochastic is placed in the over sold zone,
                   26/9/2011    24/9/2011       % Chg.       which would lead to regular bouts of short covering. The –DI line is
                                                             placed above the 30 level indicating sellers have an upper hand.
Gold (oz)            1,659.30      1,637.50         1.33%
                                                             While the ADX and +DI line are moving sideways. It faces resistance
Silver (oz)             30.78        30.05          2.43%    at 4007, 4174, 4207, 4449 and 4631 levels, while the supports are
                                                             placed at 3951, 3883 and 3850 levels.
Crude (bbl)             80.06        79.85          0.26%
Source – www.cmegroup.com


                                                                    Intra-day Resistance                             Intra-day Support
 Commodities               Close             Pivot Point       R1             R2             R3            S1              S2               S3

 CRUDE OCT 11                    4002                3994         4038          4073           4152           3959          3915             3836

 GOLD OCT 11                    26716              26601        26908          27101          27601         26408          26101            25601

 SILVER DEC 11                  53726              53351        54752          55778          58205         52325          50924            48497


                                                               Keynote Capitals Ltd.
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            4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                             www.keynotecapitals.com
US Economic Calendar:

      Monday                       Tuesday                    Wednesday                      Thursday                       Friday
      Sept. 26                     Sept. 27                    Sept. 28                       Sept. 29                     Sept. 30
Chicago Fed National       ICSC-Goldman Store           Durable Goods                                              Personal Income and
                                                                                      US GDP Data
Activity Index             Sales                        Orders                                                     Outlays
                           Consumer                     EIA Petroleum Status
New Home Sales                                                                        Jobless Claims               Consumer Sentiment
                           Confidence                   Report
                                                        MBA Purchase                  Pending Home Sales
3-Month Bill Auction       2-Year Note Auction                                                                     Chicago PMI
                                                        Applications                  Index
                                                                                      EIA Natural Gas
6-Month Bill Auction       S&P Case-Shiller HPI
                                                                                      Report




                                                            Keynote Capitals Ltd.
          th
         4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                          www.keynotecapitals.com
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                                                             Keynote Capitals Ltd.
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         4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                           www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote commodity daily report 260911

  • 1. Daily Commodity Outlook 26th September 2011 MCX GOLD (OCT 11) - Gold opened higher at 26400. Though, it Gold Silver Crude (5 Oct-11) (5 Dec-11) (19 Oct-11) moved higher to touch 26793. Profit taking and selling pressure was witnessed at higher levels. It closed at 26716 level. Open 26400 52056 3963 High 26793 54377 4030 The RSI and Stochastic are placed below their respective averages, Low 26293 51950 3951 which would result in regular bouts of selling pressure. However, the Stochastic is placed near the over sold zone, which would lead to Close 26716 53726 4002 regular bouts of short covering. The ADX, +DI line and –DI line are Prev. Close 26184 52365 3972 moving sideways indicating a range bound trend. MCX GOLD faces % Change 2.03% 2.60% 0.76% resistance at 27964, 28235, 28525, 28744 levels, while the supports Source – MCX are placed at 26376, 26184 and 25512 levels. MCX SILVER (DEC 11) - Silver opened lower at 52056. Short Volume (In 000's) covering and selective buying was witnessed. Silver moved higher at 24/9/2011 23/9/2011 % Chg. 54377. Profit taking and selling pressure at higher levels. It ended the day with modest gains to close at 53726. Gold (grms) 10,419.0 108,870.0 -90.43% Silver (kgs) 491.3 4,148.9 -88.16% The RSI and Stochastic are placed below their respective average’s, which would lead to further selling pressure. However, the RSI and Crude (bbl) 747.7 26,614.8 -97.19% Stochastic are placed in the over sold zone, which would lead to Source – MCX regular bouts of short covering. The –DI line is on verge of a breakout, while ADX and +DI line has moved higher and is placed Turnover (In Lacs) above the 30 level, indicating sellers have an upper hand. MCX Silver faces resistance at 54377, 56981 and 61708 levels, while the 24/9/2011 23/9/2011 % Chg. supports are placed at 52365, 51352 and 49807 levels. Gold 277,161.7 2,958,418.0 -90.63% MCX CRUDE (OCT 11) - Crude opened lower at 3963 level, but Silver 260,929.3 2,400,162.9 -89.13% moved higher to touch 4030 level. It ended the day to close with Crude 29,877.9 1,057,329.5 -97.17% modest gains at 4002 level. Source – MCX The RSI and the Stochastic are placed below respective average’s, which is a negative sign and would lead to regular bouts of selling Global Market (Nymex - $) pressure. However, the Stochastic is placed in the over sold zone, 26/9/2011 24/9/2011 % Chg. which would lead to regular bouts of short covering. The –DI line is placed above the 30 level indicating sellers have an upper hand. Gold (oz) 1,659.30 1,637.50 1.33% While the ADX and +DI line are moving sideways. It faces resistance Silver (oz) 30.78 30.05 2.43% at 4007, 4174, 4207, 4449 and 4631 levels, while the supports are placed at 3951, 3883 and 3850 levels. Crude (bbl) 80.06 79.85 0.26% Source – www.cmegroup.com Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Commodities Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 CRUDE OCT 11 4002 3994 4038 4073 4152 3959 3915 3836 GOLD OCT 11 26716 26601 26908 27101 27601 26408 26101 25601 SILVER DEC 11 53726 53351 54752 55778 58205 52325 50924 48497 Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. US Economic Calendar: Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Sept. 26 Sept. 27 Sept. 28 Sept. 29 Sept. 30 Chicago Fed National ICSC-Goldman Store Durable Goods Personal Income and US GDP Data Activity Index Sales Orders Outlays Consumer EIA Petroleum Status New Home Sales Jobless Claims Consumer Sentiment Confidence Report MBA Purchase Pending Home Sales 3-Month Bill Auction 2-Year Note Auction Chicago PMI Applications Index EIA Natural Gas 6-Month Bill Auction S&P Case-Shiller HPI Report Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com