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Daily Commodity Outlook

                                                                                                                        2nd December 2011

                                                                    MCX GOLD (DEC 11) - Gold opened lower at 29035. It moved
                       Gold          Silver           Crude
                      (5 Dec-11)    (5 Dec-11)      (19 Dec-11)
                                                                    higher to touch an intra-day high of 29140. However, profit taking
                                                                    and selling pressure saw it move lower to touch an intra-day low of
 Open                    29,035         55,900           5,220      28850. It ended the day with modest losses to close at 28888.
 High                    29,140         55,950           5,222
                                                                    The RSI and the Stochastic both remain placed above their
 Low                     28,850         54,806           5,103      respective averages, which would lead to buying support. However,
 Close                   28,888         54,953           5,115      Stochastic is placed in the over bought zone and regular bouts of
                                                                    profit taking will be witnessed. The ADX, +DI and -DI line are
 Prev. Close             29,061         55,520           5,219
                                                                    moving sideways, indicating a range bound trend. MCX GOLD
 % Change                -0.60%        -1.02%           -1.99%      faces resistance at 28960, 29212, 29500 and 30000, while the
                                                                    supports are placed at 28152, 27954, 26768 and 26000 levels.
Source – MCX
                                                                    MCX SILVER (DEC 11) - Silver opened higher at 55900. It moved
                       Volume (In 000's)
                                                                    higher to touch an intra-day high of 55950. However, profit taking
                       1/12/2011    30/11/2011          % Chg.      and selling pressure saw it move lower to touch an intra-day low of
                                                                    54806. It ended the day with modest losses to close at 54953
 Gold (gms)              3,329.0      31,628.0         -89.47%

 Silver (kgs)              143.5       1,596.8         -91.01%      The RSI has once again failed to sustain above its average, which
                                                                    would lead to selling pressure. However, the Stochastic remains
 Crude (bbl)            22,902.4      24,547.0          -6.70%
                                                                    placed above its average, which would lead to buying support at
Source – MCX                                                        lower levels. The ADX, -DI and +DI line are moving sideways,
                                                                    indicating a range bound trend. MCX Silver faces resistance at
                      Turnover (In Lacs)                            61708, 61884 and 64605 levels, while the supports are placed at
                                                                    54754, 52725, 52365 and 51226 levels.
                       1/12/2011    30/11/2011          % Chg.

Gold                    96,542.4     914,622.7         -89.44%
                                                                    MCX CRUDE (DEC 11) - Crude opened higher at 5220 level. It
                                                                    moved higher to touch an intra-day high of 5222. However, profit
Silver                  79,612.8     879,917.4         -90.95%      taking and selling pressure saw it move lower to touch an intra-day
Crude                1,182,485.3   1,281,232.7          -7.71%
                                                                    low of 5103. It ended the day with moderate losses to close at 5115.

Source – MCX                                                        The RSI has once again failed to sustain above its average, which
                                                                    would lead to selling pressure. However, the Stochastic remains
                   Global Market (Nymex - $)                        placed above its average, which would lead to buying support at
                       2/12/2011     1/12/2011          % Chg.
                                                                    lower levels. However, the Stochastic is still placed in the over
                                                                    bought zone, which would result in profit taking and selling pressure
Gold (oz)                  1,740           1,735         0.29%      at higher levels. The ADX and -DI line are moving higher, but +DI
Silver (oz)                32.82        32.695           0.38%      line has started moving lower and is still placed at 34.27, indicating
                                                                    buyers have started unwinding their long positions. It faces
Crude (bbl)              100.15            100.2        -0.05%      resistance at 5223, 5250 and 5300 levels, while the supports are
Dollar Index               78.35           78.30         0.06%      placed at 5200, 5174, 4889, and 4618 levels.
Source – www.cmegroup.com

                                                                                  Intra-day Resistance                            Intra-day Support
  Commodities                      Close         Pivot Point            R1                 R2       R3             S1              S2         S3

 CRUDE DEC 11                       5115                5147           5190           5266        5385           5071            5028        4909

   GOLD DEC 11                     28888              28959          29069           29249       29539          28779          28669        28379

 SILVER DEC 11                     54953              55236          55667           56380       57524          54523          54092        52948


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            4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
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US Economic Calendar:

       Friday                      Monday                       Tuesday                     Wednesday                     Thursday
       Dec. 02                     Dec. 05                      Dec. 06                      Dec. 07                       Dec. 08
                                                        ICSC-Goldman Store           EIA Petroleum Status
Employment Situation      Factory Orders                                                                           Jobless Claims
                                                        Sales                        Report
Monster Employment                                                                   MBA Purchase
                          ISM Non-Mfg Index             4-Week Bill Auction                                        Wholesale Trade
Index                                                                                Applications

                          6-Month Bill Auction          Treasury STRIPS              Consumer Credit               Money Supply Data




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        4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
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         4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                          www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote commodity daily report 021211

  • 1. Daily Commodity Outlook 2nd December 2011 MCX GOLD (DEC 11) - Gold opened lower at 29035. It moved Gold Silver Crude (5 Dec-11) (5 Dec-11) (19 Dec-11) higher to touch an intra-day high of 29140. However, profit taking and selling pressure saw it move lower to touch an intra-day low of Open 29,035 55,900 5,220 28850. It ended the day with modest losses to close at 28888. High 29,140 55,950 5,222 The RSI and the Stochastic both remain placed above their Low 28,850 54,806 5,103 respective averages, which would lead to buying support. However, Close 28,888 54,953 5,115 Stochastic is placed in the over bought zone and regular bouts of profit taking will be witnessed. The ADX, +DI and -DI line are Prev. Close 29,061 55,520 5,219 moving sideways, indicating a range bound trend. MCX GOLD % Change -0.60% -1.02% -1.99% faces resistance at 28960, 29212, 29500 and 30000, while the supports are placed at 28152, 27954, 26768 and 26000 levels. Source – MCX MCX SILVER (DEC 11) - Silver opened higher at 55900. It moved Volume (In 000's) higher to touch an intra-day high of 55950. However, profit taking 1/12/2011 30/11/2011 % Chg. and selling pressure saw it move lower to touch an intra-day low of 54806. It ended the day with modest losses to close at 54953 Gold (gms) 3,329.0 31,628.0 -89.47% Silver (kgs) 143.5 1,596.8 -91.01% The RSI has once again failed to sustain above its average, which would lead to selling pressure. However, the Stochastic remains Crude (bbl) 22,902.4 24,547.0 -6.70% placed above its average, which would lead to buying support at Source – MCX lower levels. The ADX, -DI and +DI line are moving sideways, indicating a range bound trend. MCX Silver faces resistance at Turnover (In Lacs) 61708, 61884 and 64605 levels, while the supports are placed at 54754, 52725, 52365 and 51226 levels. 1/12/2011 30/11/2011 % Chg. Gold 96,542.4 914,622.7 -89.44% MCX CRUDE (DEC 11) - Crude opened higher at 5220 level. It moved higher to touch an intra-day high of 5222. However, profit Silver 79,612.8 879,917.4 -90.95% taking and selling pressure saw it move lower to touch an intra-day Crude 1,182,485.3 1,281,232.7 -7.71% low of 5103. It ended the day with moderate losses to close at 5115. Source – MCX The RSI has once again failed to sustain above its average, which would lead to selling pressure. However, the Stochastic remains Global Market (Nymex - $) placed above its average, which would lead to buying support at 2/12/2011 1/12/2011 % Chg. lower levels. However, the Stochastic is still placed in the over bought zone, which would result in profit taking and selling pressure Gold (oz) 1,740 1,735 0.29% at higher levels. The ADX and -DI line are moving higher, but +DI Silver (oz) 32.82 32.695 0.38% line has started moving lower and is still placed at 34.27, indicating buyers have started unwinding their long positions. It faces Crude (bbl) 100.15 100.2 -0.05% resistance at 5223, 5250 and 5300 levels, while the supports are Dollar Index 78.35 78.30 0.06% placed at 5200, 5174, 4889, and 4618 levels. Source – www.cmegroup.com Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Commodities Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 CRUDE DEC 11 5115 5147 5190 5266 5385 5071 5028 4909 GOLD DEC 11 28888 28959 29069 29249 29539 28779 28669 28379 SILVER DEC 11 54953 55236 55667 56380 57524 54523 54092 52948 Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. US Economic Calendar: Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Dec. 02 Dec. 05 Dec. 06 Dec. 07 Dec. 08 ICSC-Goldman Store EIA Petroleum Status Employment Situation Factory Orders Jobless Claims Sales Report Monster Employment MBA Purchase ISM Non-Mfg Index 4-Week Bill Auction Wholesale Trade Index Applications 6-Month Bill Auction Treasury STRIPS Consumer Credit Money Supply Data Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. th 4 Floor, Balmer Lawrie Bldg., 5, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Fort, Mumbai, India – 400001. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com