This document discusses shifting attitudes towards immigration in Britain. It finds that: 1. People have become more positive about immigration in the last couple years, though most still want immigration levels reduced. 2. Those who are most "open to immigration" have the most stable views on the issue. 3. Cultural and economic interactions are important for understanding emerging political divisions related to immigration attitudes.

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immigration
Shifting ground: Changing attitudes to
Bobby Duffy, Ipsos MORI
Senior Visiting Research Fellow,
King’s College London

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1. People have become MORE positive about
immigration in the last couple of years…

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Pretty big positive shift in attitudes…
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16
On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or negative impact on Britain?
(0 is “very negative”, 10 is “very positive”)
2015 General Election 2015 Refugee Crisis EU Referendum
Base: 1,301 GB adults +16 completing an online panel survey between February 2015 and October 2016
Negative (0-4)
Positive (6-10)
Mirrored in other studies…

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Reflected in individual-level change…
On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or negative impact on the local area
Positive (35%) Positive (46%)
Neutral (20%)
Neutral (20%)
Negative (46%)
Negative (34%)
Base: 1,256 GB adults +16 completing an online panel survey between the February 2015 and October 2016
October 2016February 2015
where you live? (0-4 “Negative”, 5 “Neutral”, 6-10 “Positive”)

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2. …BUT people still want immigration
reduced

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Six in ten still want immigration numbers reduced…
Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Britain nowadays should be increased
5%
3%
3%
5%
6%
5%
23%
24%
27%
22%
20%
23%
40%
42%
37%
4%
5%
4%
Feb 2015
Pre-Brexit 2016
Post-Brexit 2016
Increase a lot
Increase a little
Remain the same as it is
Reduced a little
Reduced a lot
Don't know
a lot, increased a little, remain the same as it is, reduced a little, or reduced a lot?
Base: 2,765 GB adults +16 completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016

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And much less individual level change…
Increased
9%
Remain
the same
25%
Reduced
65%
Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Britain nowadays should be increased
a lot, increased a little, remain the same as it is, reduced a little, or reduced a lot?
Increased
7%
Remain
the same
29%
Reduced
64%
Feb 2015 October 2016
Base: 2,765 GB adults +16 completing an online panel survey between 14-25 April 2016 and 13-20 October 2016

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3. …of course, people are often very wrong
about scale of immigration…

10. 10 ©Ipsos.
THE POPULATION DO YOU THINK
ARE IMMIGRANTS (I.E. NOT
WHAT PERCENTAGE OF
BORN IN THIS COUNTRY?)
Actual… Guess…
13% 25%
33%14%

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Emotional innumeracy…
We overestimate what we worry about as
much as worrying about what we
overestimate
Vital implication:
myth-busting will have
limited impact
Misdiagnoses issue:
emotional reactions require
emotional responses?

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Explaining Nativist/Anti-immigration views
Nativist/Anti-
immigration
sentiment
9%
12%
17%
5%
3%
Does not value diversity
Opposed to political correctness
and suspicious of human rights
Strong belief individuals should
look after themselves
Strong sense of
authoritarianism
Nostalgic for Britain’s past
Belief that the system does
not work for them
personally
Base: 2,765 GB adults +16 completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016
11%
9%
5%
Think Britain will be in strong
position to negotiate trade post-
Brexit
Do not trust experts

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Most negative about
immigration
The different population segments
28%
Anti-immigration group
Concerned about immigrants taking away welfare services and jobs. Nostalgic for the past. Least
likely to mix with people from different backgrounds; don’t value diversity. Low levels of trust in
others and experts. Strong authoritarian views. Older, lower levels of education. social renters.
Highest support for UKIP. Voted heavily to Leave
23%
Mid group – comfortably off but culturally concerned
Optimistic about their future, income inequality acceptable. Highest levels of trust in others, open
to diversity, second least nostalgic group. Don’t feel personally threated by immigration. Oldest
group, retired,, most likely to own house outright. Highest support for Tories. Split on EU ref vote
25%
Mid group – under pressure
Second highest group to think other people get priority over them for public services and
immigrants get priority over jobs. Second least emphatic group about diversity. Youngest age
group, highest no. of part time workers. Biggest concern issue facing Britain is the economy.
Politically disparate and highest group of undecided voters.
Most positive about
immigration
24%
Open to immigration
Majority think immigration levels should stay same. Trust others and experts. Value diversity and
human rights, want a fairer more equal society but. Believe they will be worse off than parents’
generation. Well educated, highest group of private renters. Highest group of Labour supporters.
Mostly voted Remain.

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6. Those who are most “open to immigration”
are most stable in their views…

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7. Cultural/economic interaction
important to understand emergent
political fault-lines…

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19%
6%
19%
8%
34%
25%
36%
22%
26%
29%
32%
33%
16%
30%
5%
23%
3%
7% 4%
12%
1%
3% 3% 2%
Conservative Leave Conservative Remain Labour Leave Labour Remain
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagee Don't know
To what extent, do you agree or disagree…things in Britain were better in the past?
Group 1. Leave voters more likely to think Britain was better in the past
Base: 599 Conservative voters who voted leave in the referendum, 401 conservative voters who voted remain in the referendum, 171 Labour voters who voted
leave in the referendum, and 464 Labour voters who voted remain in the referendum, completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016

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14%
7%
49% 46%
35%
32%
36%
36%27%
29%
9% 12%18%
23%
2% 3%3%
6%
1% 2%2% 3% 3% 1%
Conservative Leave Conservative Remain Labour Leave Labour Remain
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree or disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't know
To what extent to you agree or disagree… the British economy is rigged towards the rich and powerful
Group 2. Labour supporters are more likely to think economy rigged
Base: 599 Conservative voters who voted leave in the referendum, 401 conservative voters who voted remain in the referendum, 171 Labour voters who voted leave in the referendum,
and 464 Labour voters who voted remain in the referendum, completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016

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Group 3. Gradient on type of society want…
74%
60%
32%
23%
17%
30%
54%
64%
9%
11%
13%
13%
Labour Remain
Labour Leave
Conservative
Remain
Conservative
Leave
I would like to live in a society which emphasises the social and collective provision of welfare
l would like to live in a society where the individual is encouraged to look after him or herself
No Opinion
Which of the following statements comes closest to your ideal?
Base: 599 Conservative voters who voted leave in the referendum, 401 conservative voters who voted remain in the referendum, 171 Labour voters who voted leave in the referendum,
and 464 Labour voters who voted remain in the referendum, completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016

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Thank you
Bobby Duffy
Bobby.duffy@ipsos.com
@BobbyIpsosMORI