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Ed Miliband: A 360 degree view

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Having examined William Hague's leadership of the Conservative Party in 1999 across 7 key opinion points, we have applied the same tests to Ed Miliband's leadership of the Labour party. William Hague scored 2 out of 7. How does Ed Miliband score?

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Ed Miliband: A 360 degree view

  1. 1. 1 EPOP Conference, Lancaster, September 2013 Ed Miliband: A 360 degree view Roger Mortimore, Simon Atkinson & Tom Mludzinski
  2. 2. “I don’t know enough about him... He doesn’t project an image of a leader” - Focus group member
  3. 3. “It is all about someone you can relate to, and this person is abnormal” - Focus group member
  4. 4. 5 In 1999 we tested Hague on achieving seven short-term objectives  Restore Central Office morale and functionality  Reunite the party behind him as leader  Achieve personal public recognition  Develop image with the public as leader and potential PM  Re-establish credibility of party as an alternative government  Achieve success at elections 1999  Establish basis for further improvement by 2001 – Find and exploit government weaknesses – Identify issues for general election campaign
  5. 5. 1: Restore morale and functionality of party apparatus?
  6. 6. 2: Reunite the party behind him as leader?
  7. 7. 8 40% 52% 8% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Base: 312 Labour supporters 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013 More Labour supporters are dissatisfied than satisfied with Ed Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? September 2013 Net = -12 SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Dissatisfied Satisfied October 2010 – September 2013
  8. 8. 9 1 Netsatisfaction How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as leader of the Labour/Conservative Party? Satisfaction with leaders of the opposition among own supporters HAGUE BLAIR MILIBAND CAMERON Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Leader Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Duncan-Smith
  9. 9. The view from Westminster. ..
  10. 10. Q. Who in your opinion is the most impressive parliamentarian of any party at the moment? Who else springs to mind?
  11. 11. Q. Who in your opinion is the most impressive parliamentarian of any party at the moment? Who else springs to mind? Conservative MPs, 1999 69% Base:c.40ConservativeMPsSource:MORIsurveyofMembersofParliament,Winter1999
  12. 12. Q. Who in your opinion is the most impressive parliamentarian of any party at the moment? Who else springs to mind? Labour MPs, 2013 16%28% Base:49LabourMPsSource:IpsosMORIsurveyofMembersofParliament,Summer2013
  13. 13. Reunite the party behind him as leader?
  14. 14. 3: Achieve personal public recognition
  15. 15. 16 % “don’t know” if satisfied or not after 3 years Base: c. 1.000 GB adults in each survey Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor * September 2013
  16. 16. Achieve personal public recognition
  17. 17. 4. Develop image with public as leader and potential PM?
  18. 18. 19 24 26 28 15 13 24 23 18 6 8 8 8 20 21 20 26 30 16 17 30 7 4 4 3 I don't know what Nigel Farage stands for I don't know what Nick Clegg stands for I don't know what Ed Miliband stands for I don't know what David Cameron stands for Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't Know Half don’t know what he stands for Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th -12th August 2013 33% 56% 51% 37% 50% 37% 37% 50%
  19. 19. 20 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Low public satisfaction ratings… Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013 Dissatisfied Satisfied October 2010 – September 2013September 2013 SatisfiedDon’t know Dissatisfied 24% 60% 15% Net = -36
  20. 20. 21 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader How does Ed match up to his predecessors? How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? CAMERON (2005-2010) MILIBAND (2010-2013) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Netsatisfaction
  21. 21. 22 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader How does Ed match up to his predecessors? How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? BLAIR (1994-1997) MILIBAND (2010-2013) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Netsatisfaction
  22. 22. 23 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) How does Ed match up to his predecessors? How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? MILIBAND (2010-2013) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Netsatisfaction
  23. 23. 24 Like him? Like his party? Which of these statements come closest to your views of .. and the ... Party? I like ... and I like the ... Party I do not like ... and I do not like the ... Party I like ...but I do not like the ... Party I do not like ... but I like the ... Party
  24. 24. 25 Like him? Like his party? Which of these statements come closest to your views of ... and the ... Party? Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10-12 August 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 27% 16% 11% 41% 5% 23% 7% 26% 37% 8% I like ... and I like the ... Party I do not like ... and I do not like the ... Party I do not like ... but I like the ... Party I like ...but I do not like the ... Party Cameron/Conservative Miliband/Labour
  25. 25. 26 Like him? Like his party? Which of these statements come closest to your views of ... and the ... Party? Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10-12 August 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 11% 41% 26% 37% I like ... and I like the ... Party I do not like ... and I do not like the ... Party I do not like ... but I like the ... Party I like ...but I do not like the ... Party Do not like Cameron Do not like Miliband 52% 63%
  26. 26. 27 Like him? Like his party? Which of these statements come closest to your views of ... and the ... Party? Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10-12 August 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 27% 16% 23% 7% I like ... and I like the ... Party I do not like ... and I do not like the ... Party I do not like ... but I like the ... Party I like ...but I do not like the ... Party Like Cameron Like Miliband 43% 30%
  27. 27. 28 Like him? Like his party? Which of these statements come closest to your views of ... and the ... Party? Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10-12 August 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 27% 16% 11% 41% 5% 23% 7% 26% 37% 8% I like ... and I like the ... Party I do not like ... and I do not like the ... Party I do not like ... but I like the ... Party I like ...but I do not like the ... Party Cameron v Party Miliband v Party +5 -19
  28. 28. 29 40 36 62 50 56 51 54 30 24 39 Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+, in each poll Like him? Like him not? – Best and worst Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor John Major (Jan ‘97) % Like% Do not like Which of these statements come closest to your views of ... and the ... Party? Ed Miliband (Aug ‘13) Margaret Thatcher (Oct ‘85)
  29. 29. 30 Few see him as capable or good in a crisis I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… Ed Miliband Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 58% 52% 49% 41% 32% 28% 20% 19% A capable leader Understands the problems facing Britain Good in a crisis Has sound judgement Out of touch with ordinary people More style than substance Has got a lot of personality Looks after some sections of society more than others
  30. 30. 31 Few see him as capable or good in a crisis I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… Ed Miliband Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 58% 52% 49% 41% 32% 28% 20% 19% A capable leader Understands the problems facing Britain Good in a crisis Has sound judgement Out of touch with ordinary people More style than substance Has got a lot of personality Looks after some sections of society more than others
  31. 31. 32 Few see him as capable or good in a crisis I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… Ed Miliband Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 58% 52% 49% 41% 32% 28% 20% 19% A capable leader Understands the problems facing Britain Good in a crisis Has sound judgement Out of touch with ordinary people More style than substance Has got a lot of personality Looks after some sections of society more than others
  32. 32. 33 And he compares poorly with Cameron on many leadership qualities I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… 79% 50% 70% 52% 40% 53% 47% 40% 58% 52% 49% 41% 32% 28% 20% 19% MilibandCameron Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013 A capable leader Understands the problems facing Britain Good in a crisis Has sound judgement Out of touch with ordinary people More style than substance Has got a lot of personality Looks after some sections of society more than others
  33. 33. 34 And he compares poorly with Cameron on many leadership qualities I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… 79% 50% 70% 52% 40% 53% 47% 40% 58% 52% 49% 41% 32% 28% 20% 19% MilibandCameron Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013 A capable leader Understands the problems facing Britain Good in a crisis Has sound judgement Out of touch with ordinary people More style than substance Has got a lot of personality Looks after some sections of society more than others
  34. 34. 35 And he compares poorly with Cameron on many leadership qualities I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… 79% 50% 70% 52% 40% 53% 47% 40% 58% 52% 49% 41% 32% 28% 20% 19% MilibandCameron Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013 A capable leader Understands the problems facing Britain Good in a crisis Has sound judgement Out of touch with ordinary people More style than substance Has got a lot of personality Looks after some sections of society more than others
  35. 35. 36 Only one in four think he is ready to be PM Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that… Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 511 British adults 18+, 13th - 15th April 2013 Ed Miliband is ready to be Prime Minister? Base: 499 British adults 18+, 13th - 15th April 2013
  36. 36. 37 8 16 6 24 42 5 Only one in four think he is ready to be PM Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that… Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 511 British adults 18+, 13th - 15th April 2013 Ed Miliband is ready to be Prime Minister? 24% 66% Base: 499 British adults 18+, 13th - 15th April 2013 Strongly agree Tend to agree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree
  37. 37. 38 Miliband less convincing than Blair and Cameron Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that Tony Blair/David Cameron/Ed Miliband is ready to be the next Prime Minister? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 59 43 24 28 43 66 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Blair December 1994 Cameron July 2008 Miliband April 2013 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
  38. 38. Develop image with public as leader and potential PM?
  39. 39. 5: Re-establish credibility of party as an alternative government
  40. 40. 41 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Base: c. 1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Voting intentions since 2010 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Avg. 7pt Lab lead May 2013 – Sep 2013
  41. 41. 42 10 19 8 23 35 6 Three-fifths think Labour are not ready to govern Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that… Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 511 British adults 18+, 13th - 15th April 2013 Labour is ready to form the next government? 29% 58% Base: 499 British adults 18+, 13th - 15th April 2013 Strongly agree Tend to agree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree
  42. 42. 43 Labour are behind previous “governments to be” Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that the Conservatives/Labour are ready to form the next Government? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults each month 66 45 29 25 40 58 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Labour December 1994 Conservatives July 2008 Labour April 2013
  43. 43. 44 Labour are behind previous “governments to be” Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that the Conservatives/Labour are ready to form the next Government? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults each month 66 45 31 29 25 40 57 58 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Labour December 1994 Conservatives July 2008 Labour May 2011 Labour April 2013
  44. 44. Re-establish credibility of party as an alternative government
  45. 45. 6: Achieve success at elections 2013
  46. 46. 47Success in 2013 local elections? Source: BBC Estimated national equivalent vote share Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP Other Local elections 2013 25% 29%14% 23% 9%
  47. 47. 48 40 38 40 39 38 32 34 38 39 36 33 35 46 31 28 25 29 31 33 34 38 32 34 35 37 33 39 40 43 35 37 38 33 25 42 41 29 36 37 39 37 32 38 42 44 38 30 39 40 47 43 44 37 36 30 41 33 30 26 36 26 26 24 22 30 37 39 29 13 17 27 20 21 26 26 27 18 19 17 22 20 25 27 23 24 17 25 25 26 18 25 27 27 23 25 24 23 25 24 16 15 14 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Local elections 1998-2013 % estimated national equivalent vote share Source: Rallings & Thrasher (quoted in House of Commons Library Research Paper RP10-044)
  48. 48. 49 40 38 40 39 38 32 34 38 39 36 33 35 46 31 28 25 29 31 33 34 38 32 34 35 37 33 39 40 43 35 37 38 33 25 42 41 29 36 37 39 37 32 38 42 44 38 30 39 40 47 43 44 37 36 30 41 33 30 26 36 26 26 24 22 30 37 39 29 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Local elections 1998-2013 % estimated national equivalent vote share Source: Rallings & Thrasher (quoted in House of Commons Library Research Paper RP10-044)
  49. 49. 50 Worst local election results are achieved by parties in government % estimated national equivalent vote share Source: Rallings & Thrasher (quoted in House of Commons Library Research Paper RP10-044) 40 38 40 39 38 32 34 38 39 36 33 35 46 31 28 25 29 31 33 34 38 32 34 35 37 33 39 40 43 35 37 38 33 25 42 41 29 36 37 39 37 32 38 42 44 38 30 39 40 47 43 44 37 36 30 41 33 30 26 36 26 26 24 22 30 37 39 29 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
  50. 50. 51 % estimated national equivalent vote share Source: Rallings & Thrasher (quoted in House of Commons Library Research Paper RP10-044) 40 38 40 39 38 32 34 38 39 36 33 35 46 31 28 25 29 31 33 34 38 32 34 35 37 33 39 40 43 35 37 38 33 25 42 41 29 36 37 39 37 32 38 42 44 38 30 39 40 47 43 44 37 36 30 41 33 30 26 36 26 26 24 22 30 37 39 29 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2013 matched Labour’s worst local election share in opposition for at least 40 years
  51. 51. 52 But low vote share didn’t stop Labour making a satisfactory gain of seats Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP Other -335 +291 -124 +139 Change2013 Source: BBC +244 -291 -2 Change2009
  52. 52. Achieve success at elections
  53. 53. Establish basis for further improvement by 2015: - Find and exploit government weaknesses - Identify issues for general election campaign
  54. 54. 56 39% 61% No better than Cameron on Syria Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is handling the crisis in Syria? Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,000 British adults 18-75, online, 30th August – 2nd September 2013 Ed MilibandDavid Cameron 36% 64%
  55. 55. 57 Leaders on key issues In choosing between David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband or Nigel Farage, which leader would you trust most to deal with... Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 5% 5% 25% 5% 7% 17% 7% 10% 5% 12% 9% 6% 7% 6% 8% 9% 6% 5% 36% 35% 17% 31% 31% 22% 28% 20% 23% 21% 25% 28% 28% 29% 30% 32% 37% 37% Social care for the elderly and disabled The NHS Immigration Pensions Reducing unemployment Europe The benefits system Crime and anti-social behaviour Managing the economy Cameron Miliband Clegg Farage Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th May 2013
  56. 56. 58 Leaders on key issues In choosing between David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband or Nigel Farage, which leader would you trust most to deal with... Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 5% 5% 25% 5% 7% 17% 7% 10% 5% 12% 9% 6% 7% 6% 8% 9% 6% 5% 36% 35% 17% 31% 31% 22% 28% 20% 23% 21% 25% 28% 28% 29% 30% 32% 37% 37% Social care for the elderly and disabled The NHS Immigration Pensions Reducing unemployment Europe The benefits system Crime and anti-social behaviour Managing the economy Cameron Miliband Clegg Farage Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th May 2013
  57. 57. 59 5% 5% 25% 5% 7% 17% 7% 10% 5% 12% 9% 6% 7% 6% 8% 9% 6% 5% 36% 35% 17% 31% 31% 22% 28% 20% 23% 21% 25% 28% 28% 29% 30% 32% 37% 37% Social care for the elderly and disabled The NHS Immigration Pensions Reducing unemployment Europe The benefits system Crime and anti-social behaviour Managing the economy Cameron Miliband Clegg Farage Leaders on key issues In choosing between David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband or Nigel Farage, which leader would you trust most to deal with... Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,009 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th May 2013
  58. 58. 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 Mar-90 Sep-90 Mar-91 Sep-91 Mar-92 Sep-92 Mar-93 Sep-93 Mar-94 Sep-94 Mar-95 Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Labour has not re-established its lead on economic credibility…. Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party? Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 27% 26% 8%
  59. 59. 61 26 23 21 21 4 31 29 18 10 5 The previous Labour government Banks The state of the global economy The Coalition government Local Councils January 2013 March 2011 From what you know, who do you think is most to blame for the level of cuts to public services? Labour still getting blame for cuts Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013
  60. 60. 62 Only 1 in 4 actually think they would do a better job Do you think that a Labour government with Ed Miliband as Prime Minister and Ed Balls as Chancellor of the Exchequer would do a better or worse job, or about the same, than the present government has done at managing the economy? Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th March 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 26% 38% 31% 5% Better job Don’t know (+2) Worse job About the same Net better = -5
  61. 61. 63Current voting intentions… Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Labour Conservative Lib Dem UKIP Other September 2013 Labour lead over Conservative = +3 34% 37% 10% 11% 8% Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7-9 September 2013, all certain to vote = 545 Swing = +5% On uniform swing: 62 Lab gains from Con (68 gains needed for overall majority)
  62. 62. Establish basis for further improvement by 2015: - Find and exploit government weaknesses - Identify issues for general election campaign
  63. 63. Conclusion?
  64. 64. 66 Morale/functionality of party apparatus Reunite party behind him as leader Achieve personal public recognition Develop image as potential PM Re-establish credibility of party Achieve success at elections Establish basis for further improvement
  65. 65. Miliband is a weak jockey on a poorly trained horse, BUT (unlike Hague) the condition of the course is in his favour and he has already jumped the first few fences in the lead
  66. 66. 68 Thank you

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