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Ipsos MORI Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker - October 2017

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The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker (HMCT) shows a steep decrease in the House Price Outlook (HPO), down from from +44 in March 2016 to +30 in October 2017. This means the HPO figure has more than halved since its peak in May 2015 when it was +68.

This figure is driven by an eight-point decrease in expectations that average UK property prices will be higher in twelve months’ time (down from 58% in October 2016) and a corresponding six-point increase in expectations that average UK prices will be lower in a years’ time (up from 14%).

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Ipsos MORI Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker - October 2017

  1. 1. 1Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker | October 2017 | Public SlideShare summary Q3 2017
  2. 2. 2 House Price Outlook (HPO) 5% 1% 3% 5% 11% 25% 24% 16% 7% 3% Don't know Lower by 15% or more Lower by 10% - 15% Lower by 5% - 10% Lower but less than 5% lower The same Higher but less than 5% higher Higher by 5% - 10% Higher by 10% - 15% Higher 15% or more . Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price*, sourced from Halifax HPI] * UK house price benchmark given = £222,293 Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
  3. 3. 3 House Price Outlook trend Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+) Previous Autumn measures +42 Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPO] +30 +15 +64 +63 Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker -2
  4. 4. 4 HPO and EOI trends HPO EOI Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? +30 HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+) EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse (+) EOI measures in advance of HPO measure -31 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker EOI - Ipsos MORI
  5. 5. 5 ‘Higher’ trends Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 2 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) > 15% higher 10 - 15% higher 5 - 10% higher < 5% higher The same 3 7 25 24 16 Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
  6. 6. 6 ‘Lower’ trends Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? ( HPO) > 15% lower 10 - 15% lower 5 - 10% lower < 5% lower The same 25 5 11 1 3 Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
  7. 7. 7 HPO and selling sentiment HPO Selling sentiment Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months or will it be the same? Thinking about the next 12 months do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? Selling sentiment – % agree good time to sell HPO – + balance of % higher minus % lower 47 +30 Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
  8. 8. 8 Buying and selling sentiment (±) net good time buy (±) net good time sell Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? +15 +6 Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
  9. 9. 9 Buying/selling sentiment combined Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? Good time buy/ bad time sell Bad time buy/ good time sell -5 +1 +1 Good time buy/ good time sell Bad time buy/ bad time sell + change vs Mar 2017 14% 17% 33% 22% +4 Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
  10. 10. 10 Buying sentiment – key groups Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy a property? +18 +10 +25 x% +26 27 +21 + net good time to buy +16 +13 +23 +17 +5 -15 +18 +13 +20 +23 +26 -3 Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+Men Women Owner Mortgage Renter
  11. 11. 11 Selling sentiment – key groups Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ x% + net good time to sell +9 +6 +14 +12 -4 -8 -4 +5 +20 +16 +15 Men Women Owner Mortgage Renter -4 +22 +13 x% -19 27 +6 -17 Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
  12. 12. 12 Barriers to buying Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers To people in general being able to buy a property? 33% 61 42 37 37 15 15 12 9 8 5 4 1 Being able to raise enough deposit Job security Rising property prices Household finances The general availability of mortgages Concern about rises in interest rates Fees related to buying a house Shortage of the right type of property Shortage of property for sale The level of stamp duty/taxation Falling property prices Don't know +1 Change + vs Mar17 +1 +1 -1 +2 -1 +2 +7 -2 0 -2 -4 Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
  13. 13. 13 Barriers to buying - trend data Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property? % job security % finances % rises in interest rates % rising property prices % raise enough deposit % mortages % shortage want to live % shortage want to buy % falling property prices % fees and costs % stamp duty/taxation 61 42 37 15 9,8 5,4 12 Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
  14. 14. 14Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker | October 2017 | Public Additional questions
  15. 15. 15 Mortgage rates Thinking about the next 12 months, to what extent, if at all, are you concerned about any rise in rates affecting your ability to pay your mortgage payments?* 6% 30% 33% 31% 1% Very concerned Fairly concerned Not very concerned Not at all concerned Don't know Base: 535 mortgage holders 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 (1,090 in 2014) Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker *Question in 2014: Thinking about the next 12 months, to what extent, if at all, are you concerned about any rise in interest rates affecting your mortgage payments? 12% 30% 24% 28% 7% Very concerned Fairly concerned Not very concerned Not at all concerned Don't know 2017 2014
  16. 16. 16 Regional house prices Q. Will the average price in 12 months’ time here be higher, lower or about the same in… London GB London Non- London % higher 70 64 71 % lower 11 19 9 Mids GB Mids Non-Mids % higher 37 48 34 % lower 12 8 13 N Eng GB N Eng Non- N Eng % higher 31 39 28 % lower 17 15 18 S Eng GB S Eng Non- S Eng % higher 61 65 60 % lower 9 10 9 Scotland GB Scot Non-Scot % higher 26 35 25 % lower 15 16 15 Wales GB Wales Non- Wales % higher 22 25 22 % lower 17 22 17 Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
  17. 17. 17 Regional house prices: trends Q. Will the average price in 12 months’ time here be higher, lower or about the same in… London GB London Non- London % higher -2 -10 -4 % lower +2 +7 +1 Mids GB Mids Non-Mids % higher 0 +5 -2 % lower -1 -6 +1 N Eng GB N Eng Non- N Eng % higher +1 +3 0 % lower +1 0 -1 S Eng GB S Eng Non- S Eng % higher 0 -5 +1 % lower 0 +2 0 Scotland GB Scot Non-Scot % higher -2 -5 -2 % lower -2 -3 -2 Wales GB Wales Non- Wales % higher -1 -11 -1 % lower -1 -4 -1 Base: 1,968 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 22 September – 1 October 2017 (1,953, 30 Sep- 19 Oct 2016 ) Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
  18. 18. 18Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker | October 2017 | Public Further information ben.marshall@ipsos.com alexandra.aslaksen@ipsos.com

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