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April 2015 117
Gautam Duggad (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Manish Poddar (Manish.Poddar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029
Demand trends soft; rural consumption catalyst absent
Subdued demand continues, margin tailwinds to reflect in 4Q
Expect 9.2% sales growth, 15.4% PAT growth for our Consumer coverage
We expect our Consumer coverage universe to post 9.2% revenue growth and
15.4% PAT growth in 4QFY15. Overall demand environment continues to remain
soft, in our view. We expect sector volume growth to resemble 9MFY15 albeit with
case specific variations (base effect etc). Our universe’s EBITDA is likely to grow
14.7% in 4QFY15. We expect ITC to post 5.4% sales growth (8% decline in cigarette
volumes, better QoQ, led by inventory stocking ahead of expectation of an
increase in prices) and 10% PAT growth. HUVR’s sales are likely to grow 9.3%
(volume growth of ~6%, aided by a lower base), with 60bp EBITDA margin
expansion. We expect APNT to post 5% volume growth, a tad better QoQ (3% in
3QFY15).
No material change in demand environment, rural demand softens
Our channel checks and management interactions indicate no material
improvement in industry consumption trends sequentially. Moderation in inflation
trends, improvement in urban consumer confidence and sentiment boost, post
election outcome, are yet to materially benefit the urban consumption oriented
companies. On the contrary, rural consumption trends are incrementally softening,
reflecting the lagged impact of lower rural wage growth and weak MSP prices.
Unseasonal rains have further dampened the sentiments in rural markets. We
expect clear trends in Rural to emerge only post monsoons and a possible pickup in
Government spending.
Exhibit 1: Expected quarterly performance summary (INR m)
Sector Sales EBITDA Net Profit
CMP
(INR)
RECO Mar-15
Var %
YoY
Var %
QoQ
Mar-15
Var %
YoY
Var %
QoQ
Mar-15 Var % YoY
Var %
QoQ
Consumer
Asian Paints 822 Neutral 34,883 6.8 -3.2 5,255 18.2 -1.5 3,488 17.3 -5.3
Britannia 2,216 Buy 18,459 14.0 0.6 1,752 33.4 -0.6 1,369 30.6 6.1
Colgate 2,049 Buy 10,438 13.4 5.6 2,521 24.9 29.5 1,721 24.3 31.5
Dabur 272 Neutral 19,500 10.2 -6.0 3,487 20.2 0.7 2,788 18.5 -1.4
Emami 1,013 Buy 5,335 19.7 -22.9 1,445 22.5 -31.7 1,281 12.7 -30.3
Godrej Consumer 1,117 Neutral 21,617 12.4 -2.9 3,962 18.7 2.0 2,793 20.0 5.9
GSK Consumer 6,290 Neutral 12,547 12.0 23.9 2,590 12.6 144.6 2,013 17.3 108.8
Hind. Unilever 905 Neutral 77,515 9.3 -0.3 12,247 13.7 -8.0 9,149 9.9 -4.2
ITC 341 Neutral 97,382 5.4 8.9 34,689 8.3 0.1 25,055 10.0 -4.9
Marico 384 Buy 12,496 16.8 -13.8 1,711 12.5 -26.7 1,114 3.2 -30.3
Nestle 7,106 Neutral 25,970 12.3 3.2 5,687 17.1 2.7 3,532 20.5 4.4
Pidilite Inds. 590 Neutral 10,414 14.8 -3.7 1,581 35.3 -16.0 1,069 15.6 -13.9
Radico Khaitan 89 Buy 3,852 9.6 -6.6 438 9.5 -14.6 113 24.2 -57.4
United Spirits 3,680 Buy 20,399 6.4 -10.8 1,980 119.4 -4.8 613 LP -22.2
Sector Aggregate 370,806 9.2 0.5 79,345 14.7 -0.7 56,099 15.4 -2.8
Source: MOSL
Consumer
Company name
Asian Paints
Britannia Industries
Colgate
Dabur
Emami
Godrej Consumer
GSK Consumer
Hindustan Unilever
ITC
Marico
Nestle India
Pidilite Industries
Radico Khaitan
United Spirits
March 2015 Results Preview | Sector: Consumer
April 2015 118
RM savings visible, gross margin benefits to aid brand investments
4QFY15 should see the major impact of raw material easing and price cuts, in our
view. Among the major raw materials, Palm Oil has corrected 16% YoY. Ti02, PFAD,
Kardi Oil and LLP are the other raw materials which have exhibited deflationary
trends. While activities from local unbranded players have risen, competition from
organized players remains under check. Several companies have thus initiated
price cuts/discounts to retain market share (HUVR has initiated price cuts of 10% in
the S&D portfolio, APNT has taken a 2% price cut effective Mar 1, 2015). However,
the price cuts/discounts have not yet changed the volume trajectory materially, in
our view.
Rich valuations call for selective approach
Given the rich premium the sector is commanding, our preference remains with
niche plays with strong pricing power and greater visibility on volume growth. We
continue to prefer Britannia (margins still have room for expansion); turnaround
potential (United Spirits – multi-year play on IMFL growth story); special catalyst
(Emami – distribution expansion, aggressive new launch calendar); Colgate
(improvement in volume growth trends with softening competitive intensity).
Increase in competitive intensity leading to irrational pricing, is a key monitorable.
Exhibit 2: 4QFY15 Volume growth expectations (%)
Quarter Ending 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15E
Asian Paints 18.0 -2.0 5.0 13.0 2.0 10.0 12.0 7.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 3.0 5.0
Colgate (Toothpaste) 14.0 13.0 11.0 8.0 11.0 11.0 9.0 11.0 7.0 5.0 7.0 5.0 7.0
Dabur 12.4 12.0 10.5 9.5 12.0 9.0 10.7 9.0 9.2 8.3 8.7 7.4 7.0
Godrej Consumer
Soaps 17.0 24.0 6.0 2.0 4.0 7.0 4.0 6.0 -4.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 6.0
GSK Consumer 7.0 7.4 4.5 6.0 8.0 7.0 10.0 11.0 8.0 3.0 2.0 5.0 4.0
Hindustan Unilever 10.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 6.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 3.0 6.0
ITC (cigarette) 5.5 1.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 -2.0 -4.0 -2.0 -3.0 -2.5 -4.0 -13.0 -8.0
Marico
Parachute 11.1 18.0 9.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 10.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 10.0
Hair Oil 17.5 25.0 20.0 30.0 24.0 16.0 15.0 8.0 5.0 11.0 13.0 10.0 10.0
Saffola 3.3 12.0 6.0 4.0 5.0 10.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 3.0 9.0
Radico Khaitan 10.5 6.8 9.9 8.2 7.2 7.6 7.2 7.6 3.5 -3.5 -3.9 2.0 4.0
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 3: New launches during 4QFY15
Company Brand Category
ITC B Natural Packaged Fruit Juices
Godrej Consumer Products Good Knight Neem Low Smoke Coil Mosquito Repellant
Parle Simply Good Cream Cracker Biscuits
Godrej Consumer Products Nature Soft Soaps
Nestle Extra Smooth Chocolates
GCMMF (Amul) Epic Ice-cream
HUL Magnum Choco-Cappuccino Ice-cream
Colgate-Palmolive Sensitive Pro-Relief Enamel Repair Toothpaste
Source: Company, MOSL
March 2015 Results Preview | Sector: Consumer
April 2015 119
Exhibit 4: Pricing actions enacted by several players in certain categories to maintain/gain market share
Article MRP Normalized prices for 100 gm/ml (INR) MoM QoQ YoY
Unit Mar-15 Mar-15 Feb-15 Jan-15 Dec-14 Mar-14 (%) (%) (%)
Detergent Powders
Rin Detergent Powder Advance 1kg 75 8 8 8 8 8 3 (4) 1
Surf Detergent Powder Excel Matic Top Load 1kg 207 21 21 21 21 21 0 (1) 1
Surf Detergent Powder Excel Quickwash 1kg 185 19 19 19 19 18 - - 2
Surf Detergent Powder Excel Matic Front Load 1kg 215 23 22 23 23 22 7 - 3
Wheel Detergent Powder Lemon Jasmine 1kg 44 4 4 4 5 5 - (8) (2)
Henko Detergent Powder Stain Champion Oxygen 1kg 135 14 14 14 14 14 2 2 2
Ariel Detergent Powder Matic Complete 1kg 195 23 20 19 19 19 17 19 24
Ariel Detergent Powder 24Hour Fresh Complete 1kg 205 21 21 21 20 20 - 1 3
Ariel Detergent Powder Complete 1kg 161 18 16 19 19 18 11 (3) (2)
Tide Detergent Powder Plus Regular 1kg 96 10 10 10 10 10 - - 1
Soaps
Cinthol Soap Regular 100g 33 33 33 33 33 32 - - 3
Himalaya Soap Neem & Turmeric 70g 30 43 43 43 43 39 - - 10
Dove Soap Moisturising Cream 75g 48 64 64 64 64 60 - - 7
Hamam Soap 100g 26 26 26 26 26 25 - - 4
Lifebuoy Soap Total10 115g 24 21 21 21 21 20 - - 4
Liril Soap 2000 Soft Aloevera Lemon 75g 30 40 40 40 40 37 - - 7
Lux Soap Creamy White 75g 28 37 37 37 37 35 - - 8
Pears Soap Pure N Gentle 75g 36 48 48 48 48 45 - - 7
Fiama Di Wills Soap Clear Spring 110g 58 53 - 53 53 47 - 12
Margo Soap Original Neem 90g 24 27 27 27 27 24 - - 9
Dettol Soap Original 70g 24 34 34 34 34 30 - - 14
Toothpaste
Colgate Toothpaste Cibaca 350g 76 22 22 21 21 20 3 5 11
Colgate Toothpaste Cdc 200g 80 40 40 40 40 38 - - 7
Colgate Toothpaste Maxfresh Red 150g 84 56 56 56 56 52 - - 7
Colgate Toothpaste Visible White Mint 100g 85 85 85 85 85 84 - - 1
Colgate Toothpaste Sensitive 80g 100 125 125 125 119 113 - 5 11
Colgate Toothpaste Total Advance Whitening 140g 108 77 77 75 75 71 - 3 9
Dabur Toothpaste Red 100g 41 41 - 40 40 40 2 2
Meswak Toothpaste 100g 47 47 47 47 44 44 - 7 7
Close Up Toothpaste Lemon Mint 150g 90 60 60 60 60 60 - - -
Pepsodent Toothpaste Germicheck 200g 82 41 41 41 41 40 - 1 3
Pepsodent Toothpaste Whitening 150g 84 56 56 56 56 55 - - 2
Oral B Toothpaste All Round Mint 32 140g 55 39 39 39 39 37 - - 6
Oral B Toothpaste Prohealth Mint 140g 108 70 77 77 77 70 (9) (9) -
Source: Company, MOSL
March 2015 Results Preview | Sector: Consumer
April 2015 120
Exhibit 5: PFAD prices down 19% YoY
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
Exhibit 6: Palm Oil prices down 16% YoY
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
Exhibit 7: Mentha prices down 5% YoY
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
Exhibit 8: TiO2 prices down 13% YoY
Source: Bloomberg, MOSL
Exhibit 9: Relative performance – three-month (%) Exhibit 10: Relative performance – one-year (%)
42,797
57,753
29,466
48,341
37,089
25,000
34,000
43,000
52,000
61,000
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
Palm Fatty Acid price (INR/MT)
3,540
2,075
2,860
2,086
2,161
1,000
1,800
2,600
3,400
4,200
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
MalaysianRinggitMT
Palm Oil (Malaysian Ringgit Per Metric Tonne)
2550
1350 960 880
500
1,250
2,000
2,750
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
Mentha Oil prices INR / kg 290
218
270
210
150
190
230
270
310
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
TiO2 price (INR/kg)
94
97
100
103
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15
Sensex Index MOSL Consumer Index
90
100
110
120
130
140
Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15
Sensex Index MOSL Consumer Index
March 2015 Results Preview | Sector: Consumer
April 2015 121
Exhibit 11: Valuation matrices of coverage universe
Company Reco
Price Mkt Cap
(USD M)
EPS Growth YoY (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) Div. (%)
(INR) FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY15E
Consumer
Asian Paints Neutral 835 12,864 16.2 37.4 22.7 56.1 40.8 33.3 37.8 27.2 21.9 32.5 0.8
Britannia Buy 2,259 4,333 29.0 32.7 25.0 53.9 40.6 32.5 39.3 28.9 22.5 51.2 0.7
Colgate Buy 2,101 4,586 15.7 23.5 24.2 50.3 40.8 32.8 34.0 26.1 21.1 89.3 1.5
Dabur* Neutral 274 7,734 15.9 26.3 15.5 45.1 35.7 30.9 36.0 28.4 24.3 35.7 0.8
Emami* Buy 1,037 3,779 18.1 28.5 22.6 49.5 38.5 31.4 42.0 32.0 25.6 43.9 0.7
Godrej Consumer Neutral 1,143 6,244 22.2 36.7 21.0 43.2 31.6 26.1 30.9 23.3 19.7 20.8 0.6
GSK Consumer Neutral 6,287 4,245 -12.8 19.9 17.6 45.0 37.5 31.9 33.7 27.4 22.7 29.9 0.9
Hind. Unilever Neutral 911 31,640 5.5 18.0 18.1 51.3 43.5 36.8 76.4 63.1 51.7 109.6 1.5
ITC Neutral 341 43,537 11.0 10.9 14.9 27.8 25.1 21.8 18.8 17.0 15.0 35.2 2.2
Marico* Buy 392 4,058 18.4 22.9 21.8 44.0 35.8 29.4 28.8 23.0 18.6 32.8 0.3
Nestle Neutral 7,134 11,043 8.4 19.9 19.5 54.8 45.7 38.2 32.8 27.5 23.1 48.2 1.3
Pidilite Inds. Neutral 584 4,810 12.9 50.8 17.2 55.8 37.0 31.6 37.1 24.8 20.9 23.7 0.6
Radico Khaitan Buy 93 198 -10.4 19.2 20.3 16.3 13.7 11.4 10.9 9.1 7.5 8.9 0.9
United Spirits Buy 3,766 8,787 LP 151.7 43.5 217.3 86.3 60.2 74.1 50.9 39.6 8.0 0.0
Retail
Jubilant Foodworks Buy 1,557 1,635 2.3 66.8 43.3 84.3 50.5 35.2 38.6 24.4 17.6 17.9 0.0
Shopper's Stop Neutral 410 541 4.2 67.0 44.5 86.9 52.0 36.0 18.8 14.8 12.0 5.2 0.2
Titan Company Buy 405 5,779 16.7 25.7 25.8 41.6 33.1 26.3 30.9 24.4 19.0 28.0 0.7
March 2015 Results Preview | Sector: Consumer
9 April 2015 4
Metals | Coal auction
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Overall demand environment remains soft in the Consumer Sector in Q4

  • 1. April 2015 117 Gautam Duggad (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404 Manish Poddar (Manish.Poddar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029 Demand trends soft; rural consumption catalyst absent Subdued demand continues, margin tailwinds to reflect in 4Q Expect 9.2% sales growth, 15.4% PAT growth for our Consumer coverage We expect our Consumer coverage universe to post 9.2% revenue growth and 15.4% PAT growth in 4QFY15. Overall demand environment continues to remain soft, in our view. We expect sector volume growth to resemble 9MFY15 albeit with case specific variations (base effect etc). Our universe’s EBITDA is likely to grow 14.7% in 4QFY15. We expect ITC to post 5.4% sales growth (8% decline in cigarette volumes, better QoQ, led by inventory stocking ahead of expectation of an increase in prices) and 10% PAT growth. HUVR’s sales are likely to grow 9.3% (volume growth of ~6%, aided by a lower base), with 60bp EBITDA margin expansion. We expect APNT to post 5% volume growth, a tad better QoQ (3% in 3QFY15). No material change in demand environment, rural demand softens Our channel checks and management interactions indicate no material improvement in industry consumption trends sequentially. Moderation in inflation trends, improvement in urban consumer confidence and sentiment boost, post election outcome, are yet to materially benefit the urban consumption oriented companies. On the contrary, rural consumption trends are incrementally softening, reflecting the lagged impact of lower rural wage growth and weak MSP prices. Unseasonal rains have further dampened the sentiments in rural markets. We expect clear trends in Rural to emerge only post monsoons and a possible pickup in Government spending. Exhibit 1: Expected quarterly performance summary (INR m) Sector Sales EBITDA Net Profit CMP (INR) RECO Mar-15 Var % YoY Var % QoQ Mar-15 Var % YoY Var % QoQ Mar-15 Var % YoY Var % QoQ Consumer Asian Paints 822 Neutral 34,883 6.8 -3.2 5,255 18.2 -1.5 3,488 17.3 -5.3 Britannia 2,216 Buy 18,459 14.0 0.6 1,752 33.4 -0.6 1,369 30.6 6.1 Colgate 2,049 Buy 10,438 13.4 5.6 2,521 24.9 29.5 1,721 24.3 31.5 Dabur 272 Neutral 19,500 10.2 -6.0 3,487 20.2 0.7 2,788 18.5 -1.4 Emami 1,013 Buy 5,335 19.7 -22.9 1,445 22.5 -31.7 1,281 12.7 -30.3 Godrej Consumer 1,117 Neutral 21,617 12.4 -2.9 3,962 18.7 2.0 2,793 20.0 5.9 GSK Consumer 6,290 Neutral 12,547 12.0 23.9 2,590 12.6 144.6 2,013 17.3 108.8 Hind. Unilever 905 Neutral 77,515 9.3 -0.3 12,247 13.7 -8.0 9,149 9.9 -4.2 ITC 341 Neutral 97,382 5.4 8.9 34,689 8.3 0.1 25,055 10.0 -4.9 Marico 384 Buy 12,496 16.8 -13.8 1,711 12.5 -26.7 1,114 3.2 -30.3 Nestle 7,106 Neutral 25,970 12.3 3.2 5,687 17.1 2.7 3,532 20.5 4.4 Pidilite Inds. 590 Neutral 10,414 14.8 -3.7 1,581 35.3 -16.0 1,069 15.6 -13.9 Radico Khaitan 89 Buy 3,852 9.6 -6.6 438 9.5 -14.6 113 24.2 -57.4 United Spirits 3,680 Buy 20,399 6.4 -10.8 1,980 119.4 -4.8 613 LP -22.2 Sector Aggregate 370,806 9.2 0.5 79,345 14.7 -0.7 56,099 15.4 -2.8 Source: MOSL Consumer Company name Asian Paints Britannia Industries Colgate Dabur Emami Godrej Consumer GSK Consumer Hindustan Unilever ITC Marico Nestle India Pidilite Industries Radico Khaitan United Spirits March 2015 Results Preview | Sector: Consumer
  • 2. April 2015 118 RM savings visible, gross margin benefits to aid brand investments 4QFY15 should see the major impact of raw material easing and price cuts, in our view. Among the major raw materials, Palm Oil has corrected 16% YoY. Ti02, PFAD, Kardi Oil and LLP are the other raw materials which have exhibited deflationary trends. While activities from local unbranded players have risen, competition from organized players remains under check. Several companies have thus initiated price cuts/discounts to retain market share (HUVR has initiated price cuts of 10% in the S&D portfolio, APNT has taken a 2% price cut effective Mar 1, 2015). However, the price cuts/discounts have not yet changed the volume trajectory materially, in our view. Rich valuations call for selective approach Given the rich premium the sector is commanding, our preference remains with niche plays with strong pricing power and greater visibility on volume growth. We continue to prefer Britannia (margins still have room for expansion); turnaround potential (United Spirits – multi-year play on IMFL growth story); special catalyst (Emami – distribution expansion, aggressive new launch calendar); Colgate (improvement in volume growth trends with softening competitive intensity). Increase in competitive intensity leading to irrational pricing, is a key monitorable. Exhibit 2: 4QFY15 Volume growth expectations (%) Quarter Ending 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15E Asian Paints 18.0 -2.0 5.0 13.0 2.0 10.0 12.0 7.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 3.0 5.0 Colgate (Toothpaste) 14.0 13.0 11.0 8.0 11.0 11.0 9.0 11.0 7.0 5.0 7.0 5.0 7.0 Dabur 12.4 12.0 10.5 9.5 12.0 9.0 10.7 9.0 9.2 8.3 8.7 7.4 7.0 Godrej Consumer Soaps 17.0 24.0 6.0 2.0 4.0 7.0 4.0 6.0 -4.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 6.0 GSK Consumer 7.0 7.4 4.5 6.0 8.0 7.0 10.0 11.0 8.0 3.0 2.0 5.0 4.0 Hindustan Unilever 10.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 6.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 3.0 6.0 ITC (cigarette) 5.5 1.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 -2.0 -4.0 -2.0 -3.0 -2.5 -4.0 -13.0 -8.0 Marico Parachute 11.1 18.0 9.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 10.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 10.0 Hair Oil 17.5 25.0 20.0 30.0 24.0 16.0 15.0 8.0 5.0 11.0 13.0 10.0 10.0 Saffola 3.3 12.0 6.0 4.0 5.0 10.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 3.0 9.0 Radico Khaitan 10.5 6.8 9.9 8.2 7.2 7.6 7.2 7.6 3.5 -3.5 -3.9 2.0 4.0 Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 3: New launches during 4QFY15 Company Brand Category ITC B Natural Packaged Fruit Juices Godrej Consumer Products Good Knight Neem Low Smoke Coil Mosquito Repellant Parle Simply Good Cream Cracker Biscuits Godrej Consumer Products Nature Soft Soaps Nestle Extra Smooth Chocolates GCMMF (Amul) Epic Ice-cream HUL Magnum Choco-Cappuccino Ice-cream Colgate-Palmolive Sensitive Pro-Relief Enamel Repair Toothpaste Source: Company, MOSL March 2015 Results Preview | Sector: Consumer
  • 3. April 2015 119 Exhibit 4: Pricing actions enacted by several players in certain categories to maintain/gain market share Article MRP Normalized prices for 100 gm/ml (INR) MoM QoQ YoY Unit Mar-15 Mar-15 Feb-15 Jan-15 Dec-14 Mar-14 (%) (%) (%) Detergent Powders Rin Detergent Powder Advance 1kg 75 8 8 8 8 8 3 (4) 1 Surf Detergent Powder Excel Matic Top Load 1kg 207 21 21 21 21 21 0 (1) 1 Surf Detergent Powder Excel Quickwash 1kg 185 19 19 19 19 18 - - 2 Surf Detergent Powder Excel Matic Front Load 1kg 215 23 22 23 23 22 7 - 3 Wheel Detergent Powder Lemon Jasmine 1kg 44 4 4 4 5 5 - (8) (2) Henko Detergent Powder Stain Champion Oxygen 1kg 135 14 14 14 14 14 2 2 2 Ariel Detergent Powder Matic Complete 1kg 195 23 20 19 19 19 17 19 24 Ariel Detergent Powder 24Hour Fresh Complete 1kg 205 21 21 21 20 20 - 1 3 Ariel Detergent Powder Complete 1kg 161 18 16 19 19 18 11 (3) (2) Tide Detergent Powder Plus Regular 1kg 96 10 10 10 10 10 - - 1 Soaps Cinthol Soap Regular 100g 33 33 33 33 33 32 - - 3 Himalaya Soap Neem & Turmeric 70g 30 43 43 43 43 39 - - 10 Dove Soap Moisturising Cream 75g 48 64 64 64 64 60 - - 7 Hamam Soap 100g 26 26 26 26 26 25 - - 4 Lifebuoy Soap Total10 115g 24 21 21 21 21 20 - - 4 Liril Soap 2000 Soft Aloevera Lemon 75g 30 40 40 40 40 37 - - 7 Lux Soap Creamy White 75g 28 37 37 37 37 35 - - 8 Pears Soap Pure N Gentle 75g 36 48 48 48 48 45 - - 7 Fiama Di Wills Soap Clear Spring 110g 58 53 - 53 53 47 - 12 Margo Soap Original Neem 90g 24 27 27 27 27 24 - - 9 Dettol Soap Original 70g 24 34 34 34 34 30 - - 14 Toothpaste Colgate Toothpaste Cibaca 350g 76 22 22 21 21 20 3 5 11 Colgate Toothpaste Cdc 200g 80 40 40 40 40 38 - - 7 Colgate Toothpaste Maxfresh Red 150g 84 56 56 56 56 52 - - 7 Colgate Toothpaste Visible White Mint 100g 85 85 85 85 85 84 - - 1 Colgate Toothpaste Sensitive 80g 100 125 125 125 119 113 - 5 11 Colgate Toothpaste Total Advance Whitening 140g 108 77 77 75 75 71 - 3 9 Dabur Toothpaste Red 100g 41 41 - 40 40 40 2 2 Meswak Toothpaste 100g 47 47 47 47 44 44 - 7 7 Close Up Toothpaste Lemon Mint 150g 90 60 60 60 60 60 - - - Pepsodent Toothpaste Germicheck 200g 82 41 41 41 41 40 - 1 3 Pepsodent Toothpaste Whitening 150g 84 56 56 56 56 55 - - 2 Oral B Toothpaste All Round Mint 32 140g 55 39 39 39 39 37 - - 6 Oral B Toothpaste Prohealth Mint 140g 108 70 77 77 77 70 (9) (9) - Source: Company, MOSL March 2015 Results Preview | Sector: Consumer
  • 4. April 2015 120 Exhibit 5: PFAD prices down 19% YoY Source: Bloomberg, MOSL Exhibit 6: Palm Oil prices down 16% YoY Source: Bloomberg, MOSL Exhibit 7: Mentha prices down 5% YoY Source: Bloomberg, MOSL Exhibit 8: TiO2 prices down 13% YoY Source: Bloomberg, MOSL Exhibit 9: Relative performance – three-month (%) Exhibit 10: Relative performance – one-year (%) 42,797 57,753 29,466 48,341 37,089 25,000 34,000 43,000 52,000 61,000 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Palm Fatty Acid price (INR/MT) 3,540 2,075 2,860 2,086 2,161 1,000 1,800 2,600 3,400 4,200 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 MalaysianRinggitMT Palm Oil (Malaysian Ringgit Per Metric Tonne) 2550 1350 960 880 500 1,250 2,000 2,750 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Mentha Oil prices INR / kg 290 218 270 210 150 190 230 270 310 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 TiO2 price (INR/kg) 94 97 100 103 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Sensex Index MOSL Consumer Index 90 100 110 120 130 140 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Sensex Index MOSL Consumer Index March 2015 Results Preview | Sector: Consumer
  • 5. April 2015 121 Exhibit 11: Valuation matrices of coverage universe Company Reco Price Mkt Cap (USD M) EPS Growth YoY (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) Div. (%) (INR) FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY15E Consumer Asian Paints Neutral 835 12,864 16.2 37.4 22.7 56.1 40.8 33.3 37.8 27.2 21.9 32.5 0.8 Britannia Buy 2,259 4,333 29.0 32.7 25.0 53.9 40.6 32.5 39.3 28.9 22.5 51.2 0.7 Colgate Buy 2,101 4,586 15.7 23.5 24.2 50.3 40.8 32.8 34.0 26.1 21.1 89.3 1.5 Dabur* Neutral 274 7,734 15.9 26.3 15.5 45.1 35.7 30.9 36.0 28.4 24.3 35.7 0.8 Emami* Buy 1,037 3,779 18.1 28.5 22.6 49.5 38.5 31.4 42.0 32.0 25.6 43.9 0.7 Godrej Consumer Neutral 1,143 6,244 22.2 36.7 21.0 43.2 31.6 26.1 30.9 23.3 19.7 20.8 0.6 GSK Consumer Neutral 6,287 4,245 -12.8 19.9 17.6 45.0 37.5 31.9 33.7 27.4 22.7 29.9 0.9 Hind. Unilever Neutral 911 31,640 5.5 18.0 18.1 51.3 43.5 36.8 76.4 63.1 51.7 109.6 1.5 ITC Neutral 341 43,537 11.0 10.9 14.9 27.8 25.1 21.8 18.8 17.0 15.0 35.2 2.2 Marico* Buy 392 4,058 18.4 22.9 21.8 44.0 35.8 29.4 28.8 23.0 18.6 32.8 0.3 Nestle Neutral 7,134 11,043 8.4 19.9 19.5 54.8 45.7 38.2 32.8 27.5 23.1 48.2 1.3 Pidilite Inds. Neutral 584 4,810 12.9 50.8 17.2 55.8 37.0 31.6 37.1 24.8 20.9 23.7 0.6 Radico Khaitan Buy 93 198 -10.4 19.2 20.3 16.3 13.7 11.4 10.9 9.1 7.5 8.9 0.9 United Spirits Buy 3,766 8,787 LP 151.7 43.5 217.3 86.3 60.2 74.1 50.9 39.6 8.0 0.0 Retail Jubilant Foodworks Buy 1,557 1,635 2.3 66.8 43.3 84.3 50.5 35.2 38.6 24.4 17.6 17.9 0.0 Shopper's Stop Neutral 410 541 4.2 67.0 44.5 86.9 52.0 36.0 18.8 14.8 12.0 5.2 0.2 Titan Company Buy 405 5,779 16.7 25.7 25.8 41.6 33.1 26.3 30.9 24.4 19.0 28.0 0.7 March 2015 Results Preview | Sector: Consumer
  • 6. 9 April 2015 4 Metals | Coal auction Disclosures This document has been prepared by Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred to as Most) to provide information about the company(ies) and/sector(s), if any, covered in the report and may be distributed by it and/or its affiliated company(ies). This report is for personal information of the selected recipient/s and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. This research report does not constitute an offer, invitation or inducement to invest in securities or other investments and Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as MOSt) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your general information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form. 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