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Which Sector has outperformed the Market ??
Specialty
chemicals
• China Factor (Stringent environment norms,
Clear Sky Policy, Covid 19)
• Global opportunity (Export potential due to
low cost labor)
• Domestic Opportunity ( Import substitution,
Atmnirbhar Bharat, Make In India, Anti
Dumping Duty)
• Shift from Unorganized to Organized helping
Listed players
How Specialty Chemicals have outperformed the
Market ??
Sadhan
• China Factor (Stringent environment
norms, Clear Sky Policy, Covid 19)
How Specialty Chemicals have outperformed the
Market ??
Sadhan
How Specialty Chemicals have outperformed the
Market ??
Sadhan
Sadhan
Business Model
Financial Analysis
Valuation
Sadhan
• Started in 1979 with Aliphatic
Amine in technical collaboration
with a US firm.
• Later on, they started making
Derivatives
• Then they started making Specialty
Chemicals
Aliphatic
Amine
50%
Derivative
25%
Speciality
Chemicals
25%
History
Sadhan
• Managing Director is Yogesh Kothari
• Chemical Engineer from U.D.C.T., Mumbai,
• Master of Management Science and Master
of Science (Chemical Engineering) from
University of Massachusetts, U.S.A.
Management
Sadhan
Management
• Managing Director is Yogesh Kothari
• Chemical Engineer from U.D.C.T., Mumbai,
• Master of Management Science and Master
of Science (Chemical Engineering) from
University of Massachusetts, U.S.A.
• Promoters own 74% of shareholding
• No share pledge
Sadhan
Business Model Raw material
Methanol
Ammonia
Denatured
Ethyl
Alcohol
Imported from Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar etc,
especially post the US sanctions on Iran, which is one
of the major manufacturers of methanol in the world.
Methanol price are linked to crude prices
Difficult to transport, it is largely sourced indigenously.
Mainly sourced from sugar factories and distilleries
besides being imported from the US and Latin
American countries.
Sadhan
Business Model Revenue Mix
Pharma +
Agro
=~70%
Sadhan
Product Aliphatic
Amine
Methyl
Amine
Ethyl
Amine
Indian market size:85,000 ton
AACL have 30,000 ton capacity (40%
market Share). Others are Balaji & RCF
AACL is furtherenhancing capacity by
15,000 ton over next 2 years
Methyl amine is dangerous & difficult
to carry so Indian demand is captive
Margin are low
Sadhan
Product Aliphatic
Amine
Ethyl
Amine
Indian market size:21,000 ton
AACL is market leader with 15,000
ton capacity. Others is Balaji
Ethyl amine is dangerous & difficult to
transport so Indian demand is mostly
captive with limited 10-15% import
Sadhan
Product Derivative
DMA HCL
AACL have 12,000 ton capacity.
AACL+ Balaji controls 60-70% market.
Competitive market
Not dangerous & easy to carry
Used in Ranitidine which is used in
treatment of Peptic & Gastric ulcer
Used in Metformin which is used in
Type 2 Diabetes treatment
Sadhan
Product Specialty
Chemical
Acetonitrile
Indian market size:17,000 ton
AACL is market leader with 10,000 ton capacity (40%
Market share)
2 methods to make Acetonitrile :
(1) From Acrylonitrile (Auto industry )
(2) From Ascetic Acid+ Ammonia (AACL)
The increased pharma demand has widened margins for
the product. Prices have increased by 3X due to shortage
of supply
Export market and increase in domestic demand would be
met by the expanded capacity of 15,000 ton
Sadhan
236
288
366
446 476 484 501
616
846
993 972
Growth Rate:17%
Sales
Sadhan
13%
15% 16%
19% 18% 19% 19% 19% 19%
26%
28%
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Sadhan
2016: 0.54
2020: 0.16
Debt:
Equity
Sadhan
24
36
22
46
61
101
63
102
144
188
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cash flow from
Operation (CFO)
Sadhan
0.78
0.84
0.39
0.54
0.70
1.11
0.67
0.87 0.88
0.73
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
CFO
EBITDA
0.80
Is Profit generated is real
i.e. Cash?
Sadhan
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1.Net Fixed Asset
Turnover 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.5
2.Receivables days 68 68 68 72 71 68 65 60 58
3.Inventory
Turnover 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 9 10
High is
better
Low is
better
High is
better
Cash Conversion
Sadhan
12.2%
16.9%
19.3%
26.4%
24.9% 25.9%
22.4% 21.7%
27.3%
43.3%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Return on Capital
Employed
15%
Sadhan
-
50
100
150
200
250
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Profit (in Rs cr)
Valuation
Stock price
Sadhan
Growth Rate 10Yr 7Yr 5Yr 3Yr TTM
Sales Growth 17% 15% 16% 26% -2%
OPM 20% 20% 21% 21% 28%
PAT Growth 40% 37% 37% 62% 8%
Avg. PE 12.1 13.5 16.0 17.2 29.2
ROCE 24% 27% 26% 28%
ROCE+ PAT
Growth 64% 64% 63% 91%
PE Rerating
Increasing
Consistently Growing
Consistently Growing
Consistently Growing
Why Market have valued AACL so high?
Sadhan
Why Market have valued AACL so high?
• Growth Stock
• PE Expansion (Rerating) due to moving to next orbit (Rs 100
cr + Club)
Sadhan
Will it sustain?
• Next PE Rerating seems unlikely
• Earning growth will lead to price growth, so watching the
earning growth quarterly is recommended
• There is huge sectoral tailwind supporting the buoyant price of
its key product (Acetonitrile price is key monitorable)
• Institution holding (MF ) is still low at 2%, there is room for
institution to increase holding (Aarti Industries , Atul Ltd had
similar trajectory )
Sadhan
What you should do?
• Stock is fairly valued
• Stock have great potential so people with conviction in
Specialty Chemical growth story should invest
• Invest at Right time, Right price
• Accumulate at drop
Sadhan

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Alkyl Amine: The Making of a Multibagger

  • 1. Which Sector has outperformed the Market ?? Specialty chemicals
  • 2. • China Factor (Stringent environment norms, Clear Sky Policy, Covid 19) • Global opportunity (Export potential due to low cost labor) • Domestic Opportunity ( Import substitution, Atmnirbhar Bharat, Make In India, Anti Dumping Duty) • Shift from Unorganized to Organized helping Listed players How Specialty Chemicals have outperformed the Market ?? Sadhan
  • 3. • China Factor (Stringent environment norms, Clear Sky Policy, Covid 19) How Specialty Chemicals have outperformed the Market ?? Sadhan
  • 4. How Specialty Chemicals have outperformed the Market ?? Sadhan
  • 7. • Started in 1979 with Aliphatic Amine in technical collaboration with a US firm. • Later on, they started making Derivatives • Then they started making Specialty Chemicals Aliphatic Amine 50% Derivative 25% Speciality Chemicals 25% History Sadhan
  • 8. • Managing Director is Yogesh Kothari • Chemical Engineer from U.D.C.T., Mumbai, • Master of Management Science and Master of Science (Chemical Engineering) from University of Massachusetts, U.S.A. Management Sadhan
  • 9. Management • Managing Director is Yogesh Kothari • Chemical Engineer from U.D.C.T., Mumbai, • Master of Management Science and Master of Science (Chemical Engineering) from University of Massachusetts, U.S.A. • Promoters own 74% of shareholding • No share pledge Sadhan
  • 10. Business Model Raw material Methanol Ammonia Denatured Ethyl Alcohol Imported from Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar etc, especially post the US sanctions on Iran, which is one of the major manufacturers of methanol in the world. Methanol price are linked to crude prices Difficult to transport, it is largely sourced indigenously. Mainly sourced from sugar factories and distilleries besides being imported from the US and Latin American countries. Sadhan
  • 11. Business Model Revenue Mix Pharma + Agro =~70% Sadhan
  • 12. Product Aliphatic Amine Methyl Amine Ethyl Amine Indian market size:85,000 ton AACL have 30,000 ton capacity (40% market Share). Others are Balaji & RCF AACL is furtherenhancing capacity by 15,000 ton over next 2 years Methyl amine is dangerous & difficult to carry so Indian demand is captive Margin are low Sadhan
  • 13. Product Aliphatic Amine Ethyl Amine Indian market size:21,000 ton AACL is market leader with 15,000 ton capacity. Others is Balaji Ethyl amine is dangerous & difficult to transport so Indian demand is mostly captive with limited 10-15% import Sadhan
  • 14. Product Derivative DMA HCL AACL have 12,000 ton capacity. AACL+ Balaji controls 60-70% market. Competitive market Not dangerous & easy to carry Used in Ranitidine which is used in treatment of Peptic & Gastric ulcer Used in Metformin which is used in Type 2 Diabetes treatment Sadhan
  • 15. Product Specialty Chemical Acetonitrile Indian market size:17,000 ton AACL is market leader with 10,000 ton capacity (40% Market share) 2 methods to make Acetonitrile : (1) From Acrylonitrile (Auto industry ) (2) From Ascetic Acid+ Ammonia (AACL) The increased pharma demand has widened margins for the product. Prices have increased by 3X due to shortage of supply Export market and increase in domestic demand would be met by the expanded capacity of 15,000 ton Sadhan
  • 16. 236 288 366 446 476 484 501 616 846 993 972 Growth Rate:17% Sales Sadhan
  • 17. 13% 15% 16% 19% 18% 19% 19% 19% 19% 26% 28% EBITDA Margin (%) Sadhan
  • 19. 24 36 22 46 61 101 63 102 144 188 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Cash flow from Operation (CFO) Sadhan
  • 20. 0.78 0.84 0.39 0.54 0.70 1.11 0.67 0.87 0.88 0.73 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 CFO EBITDA 0.80 Is Profit generated is real i.e. Cash? Sadhan
  • 21. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1.Net Fixed Asset Turnover 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.Receivables days 68 68 68 72 71 68 65 60 58 3.Inventory Turnover 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 9 10 High is better Low is better High is better Cash Conversion Sadhan
  • 22. 12.2% 16.9% 19.3% 26.4% 24.9% 25.9% 22.4% 21.7% 27.3% 43.3% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Return on Capital Employed 15% Sadhan
  • 23. - 50 100 150 200 250 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Profit (in Rs cr) Valuation Stock price Sadhan
  • 24. Growth Rate 10Yr 7Yr 5Yr 3Yr TTM Sales Growth 17% 15% 16% 26% -2% OPM 20% 20% 21% 21% 28% PAT Growth 40% 37% 37% 62% 8% Avg. PE 12.1 13.5 16.0 17.2 29.2 ROCE 24% 27% 26% 28% ROCE+ PAT Growth 64% 64% 63% 91% PE Rerating Increasing Consistently Growing Consistently Growing Consistently Growing Why Market have valued AACL so high? Sadhan
  • 25. Why Market have valued AACL so high? • Growth Stock • PE Expansion (Rerating) due to moving to next orbit (Rs 100 cr + Club) Sadhan
  • 26. Will it sustain? • Next PE Rerating seems unlikely • Earning growth will lead to price growth, so watching the earning growth quarterly is recommended • There is huge sectoral tailwind supporting the buoyant price of its key product (Acetonitrile price is key monitorable) • Institution holding (MF ) is still low at 2%, there is room for institution to increase holding (Aarti Industries , Atul Ltd had similar trajectory ) Sadhan
  • 27. What you should do? • Stock is fairly valued • Stock have great potential so people with conviction in Specialty Chemical growth story should invest • Invest at Right time, Right price • Accumulate at drop Sadhan