A summary of key findings from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report by Anne Hollowed, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, USA SICCME open session, 17 September 2014, ICES Annual Science Conference, A Coruña, Spain

1. Projected impacts of climate change on Arctic
marine ecosystems: a summary of key findings
from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report
Anne Hollowed
Alaska Fisheries Science Center
September 2014: SICCME Open Science Meeting
Larsen, J.N., O.A. Anisimov, A. Constable, A.B. Hollowed, N. Maynard, P. Prestrud, T.D. Prowse,
and J.M.R. Stone, 2014: Polar regions. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and
Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken,
M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova,
B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)].
Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. XXX-YYY.

2. Climate Change Assessment (IPCC
- WGII Summary for Policy Makers)

3. Photo credit NOAA.
(http://marinesciencetoday.com)
What do we expect
in the future? – See IPCC WG 1
• Increased ocean temperature
• Increased stratification of Arctic Ocean and the SE
Bering Sea in summer
• Reduced sea ice extent in Arctic Ocean in summer
• Reduced cold pool extent in the Bering Sea
• Changes in timing of sea ice breakup and set-up
• Naturally occurring interannual, decadal, and multi-decadal
variations in climate will continue to influence the Arctic
Ocean and its neighboring high latitude seas.
• Changes in bio-chemical properties of Arctic Ocean and
eastern Bering Sea (including ocean acidification)
• Changes in the size distribution and abundance of
selected phytoplankton and zooplankton

4. Projected Average Annual Surface
Temperature (IPCC AR5 SPM,
2014)

5. Record Low Sea Ice Extent in September,
2012
Source: National Snow and Ice Data
Center, Boulder CO.
From http://nsidc.org/
Projected Seasonal – Sea Ice
Extent Over Chukchi Sea AR4
Wang, Overland and Stabeno 2012
DSR II 65-70: 46-57
Red – Observed; Blue – Ensemble means under A1B
scenario
Pink – Ensemble mean under A2 scenario
Gray curve – one realization of one model

6. Projected EBS July bottom temperatures in SE Bering Sea ( Al Hermann JISAO)
CGCM3
MIROC
ECHOG
} “warm”
} “medium”
} “cold”

7. Regional Heterogeneity: Larsen et al. 2014
• “The impacts of climate change, and the
adaptations to it, exhibit strong spatial
heterogeneity in the polar regions
because of the high diversity of social
systems, biophysical regions, and
associated drivers of change (high
confidence). {28.2.2}”

8. Major Currents
Danielson et al. 2011. J. Geophys. Res.116:
C120341
Sea ice 0 m
100 m
200 m
300 m
Sea ice
0 m
100 m
200 m
300 m
McBride et al. 2014. ICES J. Mar.
Sci. Courtesy of Jack Cook: Woods Hole
Oceanographic Institution
Winter Present Future?

9. Importance of latitude
Ji et al. 2012 Prog. Oceanog. 40-56
Growth Season Start Date
Seawifs-derived Chla
Growth Season length
Onset of snow melt
Seasonal ice zone

10. Local Response
Rates Differ
Arrigo and van Dijken
2011 J. Geophys. Res.,
Vol. 116, C09011,
doi:10.1029/2011JC007151

11. “Some marine species will shift their ranges in
response to changing ocean and sea ice
conditions in the polar regions (medium
confidence).
• The response rate and the spatial extent of the shifts will
differ by species based on their vulnerability to change
and their life history. {28.2.2, 28.3.2}
• Loss of sea ice in summer and increased ocean
temperatures are expected to impact secondary pelagic
production in some regions of the Arctic Ocean, with
associated changes in the energy pathways within the
marine ecosystem (medium confidence).
• These changes are expected to alter the species
composition of zooplankton in some regions, with
associated impacts on some fish and shellfish
populations (medium confidence). {28.2.2.1}”

12. One Example of Evidence of Spatial Shift
Detecting temporal trends and environmentally-driven changes in the
spatial distribution of bottom fishes and crabs on the eastern Bering Sea
shelf.
Stan Kotwicki and Robert R. Lauth
• Data: Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) bottom trawl survey 1982 – 2011
• First study that included cold years 2006 – 2010
• Used GAMs and indices of co-location
• Tested effects of time lag, population abundance and cold pool area using three
isothermal boundaries - 0°, 1°, and 2°C.

13. Ecosystem context: Larsen et al.
2014
• “The physical, biological, and
socioeconomic impacts of climate
change in the Arctic have to be seen in
the context of often interconnected
factors that include not only
environmental changes caused by
drivers other than climate change but
also demography, culture, and economic
development.”

14. Future Fisheries
• Demand for protein
• World markets
• Range expansion to north uncertain
• Infra-structure
• Bio-economic considerations (fuel, risk)
• Sustainable fisheries – Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management
• International cooperation
Photo Credit: Sam Zmolek, NOAA Fisheries.
Photo of Dutch Harbor, Alaska

15. Transportation

16. Other issues: Larsen et al. 2014
• “Shifts in the timing and magnitude of seasonal
biomass production could disrupt matched
phenologies in the food webs, leading to
decreased survival of dependent species
(medium confidence).”
• “Ocean acidification has the potential to inhibit
embryo development and shell formation of
some zooplankton and krill in the polar regions,
with potentially far-reaching consequences to
food webs in these regions (medium
confidence).”

17. Core research questions
• Future stratification – impedes nutrient exchange
• Future storm frequency and intensity – nutrient
pulses
• Role of spatial distribution and timing of ice algal
blooms
• Vulnerability to shifts in onset of growing season
(onset and duration)
• Grazing impacts
• Pelagic – Benthic coupling
• Vulnerability to Ocean Acidification
• Population level impacts of Ocean Acidification