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Projected impacts of climate change on Arctic 
marine ecosystems: a summary of key findings 
from the IPCC 5th Assessment ...
Climate Change Assessment (IPCC 
- WGII Summary for Policy Makers)
Photo credit NOAA. 
(http://marinesciencetoday.com) 
What do we expect 
in the future? – See IPCC WG 1 
• Increased ocean ...
Projected Average Annual Surface 
Temperature (IPCC AR5 SPM, 
2014)
Record Low Sea Ice Extent in September, 
2012 
Source: National Snow and Ice Data 
Center, Boulder CO. 
From http://nsidc....
Projected EBS July bottom temperatures in SE Bering Sea ( Al Hermann JISAO) 
CGCM3 
MIROC 
ECHOG 
} “warm” 
} “medium” 
} ...
Regional Heterogeneity: Larsen et al. 2014 
• “The impacts of climate change, and the 
adaptations to it, exhibit strong s...
Major Currents 
Danielson et al. 2011. J. Geophys. Res.116: 
C120341 
Sea ice 0 m 
100 m 
200 m 
300 m 
Sea ice 
0 m 
100 ...
Importance of latitude 
Ji et al. 2012 Prog. Oceanog. 40-56 
Growth Season Start Date 
Seawifs-derived Chla 
Growth Season...
Local Response 
Rates Differ 
Arrigo and van Dijken 
2011 J. Geophys. Res., 
Vol. 116, C09011, 
doi:10.1029/2011JC007151
“Some marine species will shift their ranges in 
response to changing ocean and sea ice 
conditions in the polar regions (...
One Example of Evidence of Spatial Shift 
Detecting temporal trends and environmentally-driven changes in the 
spatial dis...
Ecosystem context: Larsen et al. 
2014 
• “The physical, biological, and 
socioeconomic impacts of climate 
change in the ...
Future Fisheries 
• Demand for protein 
• World markets 
• Range expansion to north uncertain 
• Infra-structure 
• Bio-ec...
Transportation
Other issues: Larsen et al. 2014 
• “Shifts in the timing and magnitude of seasonal 
biomass production could disrupt matc...
Core research questions 
• Future stratification – impedes nutrient exchange 
• Future storm frequency and intensity – nut...
Projected impacts of climate change on Arctic marine ecosystems: a summary of key findings from the IPCC 5th Assessment Re...
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Projected impacts of climate change on Arctic marine ecosystems: a summary of key findings from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report

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A summary of key findings from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report by Anne Hollowed, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, USA
SICCME open session, 17 September 2014, ICES Annual Science Conference, A Coruña, Spain

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Projected impacts of climate change on Arctic marine ecosystems: a summary of key findings from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report

  1. 1. Projected impacts of climate change on Arctic marine ecosystems: a summary of key findings from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report Anne Hollowed Alaska Fisheries Science Center September 2014: SICCME Open Science Meeting Larsen, J.N., O.A. Anisimov, A. Constable, A.B. Hollowed, N. Maynard, P. Prestrud, T.D. Prowse, and J.M.R. Stone, 2014: Polar regions. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. XXX-YYY.
  2. 2. Climate Change Assessment (IPCC - WGII Summary for Policy Makers)
  3. 3. Photo credit NOAA. (http://marinesciencetoday.com) What do we expect in the future? – See IPCC WG 1 • Increased ocean temperature • Increased stratification of Arctic Ocean and the SE Bering Sea in summer • Reduced sea ice extent in Arctic Ocean in summer • Reduced cold pool extent in the Bering Sea • Changes in timing of sea ice breakup and set-up • Naturally occurring interannual, decadal, and multi-decadal variations in climate will continue to influence the Arctic Ocean and its neighboring high latitude seas. • Changes in bio-chemical properties of Arctic Ocean and eastern Bering Sea (including ocean acidification) • Changes in the size distribution and abundance of selected phytoplankton and zooplankton
  4. 4. Projected Average Annual Surface Temperature (IPCC AR5 SPM, 2014)
  5. 5. Record Low Sea Ice Extent in September, 2012 Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder CO. From http://nsidc.org/ Projected Seasonal – Sea Ice Extent Over Chukchi Sea AR4 Wang, Overland and Stabeno 2012 DSR II 65-70: 46-57 Red – Observed; Blue – Ensemble means under A1B scenario Pink – Ensemble mean under A2 scenario Gray curve – one realization of one model
  6. 6. Projected EBS July bottom temperatures in SE Bering Sea ( Al Hermann JISAO) CGCM3 MIROC ECHOG } “warm” } “medium” } “cold”
  7. 7. Regional Heterogeneity: Larsen et al. 2014 • “The impacts of climate change, and the adaptations to it, exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity in the polar regions because of the high diversity of social systems, biophysical regions, and associated drivers of change (high confidence). {28.2.2}”
  8. 8. Major Currents Danielson et al. 2011. J. Geophys. Res.116: C120341 Sea ice 0 m 100 m 200 m 300 m Sea ice 0 m 100 m 200 m 300 m McBride et al. 2014. ICES J. Mar. Sci. Courtesy of Jack Cook: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Winter Present Future?
  9. 9. Importance of latitude Ji et al. 2012 Prog. Oceanog. 40-56 Growth Season Start Date Seawifs-derived Chla Growth Season length Onset of snow melt Seasonal ice zone
  10. 10. Local Response Rates Differ Arrigo and van Dijken 2011 J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 116, C09011, doi:10.1029/2011JC007151
  11. 11. “Some marine species will shift their ranges in response to changing ocean and sea ice conditions in the polar regions (medium confidence). • The response rate and the spatial extent of the shifts will differ by species based on their vulnerability to change and their life history. {28.2.2, 28.3.2} • Loss of sea ice in summer and increased ocean temperatures are expected to impact secondary pelagic production in some regions of the Arctic Ocean, with associated changes in the energy pathways within the marine ecosystem (medium confidence). • These changes are expected to alter the species composition of zooplankton in some regions, with associated impacts on some fish and shellfish populations (medium confidence). {28.2.2.1}”
  12. 12. One Example of Evidence of Spatial Shift Detecting temporal trends and environmentally-driven changes in the spatial distribution of bottom fishes and crabs on the eastern Bering Sea shelf. Stan Kotwicki and Robert R. Lauth • Data: Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) bottom trawl survey 1982 – 2011 • First study that included cold years 2006 – 2010 • Used GAMs and indices of co-location • Tested effects of time lag, population abundance and cold pool area using three isothermal boundaries - 0°, 1°, and 2°C.
  13. 13. Ecosystem context: Larsen et al. 2014 • “The physical, biological, and socioeconomic impacts of climate change in the Arctic have to be seen in the context of often interconnected factors that include not only environmental changes caused by drivers other than climate change but also demography, culture, and economic development.”
  14. 14. Future Fisheries • Demand for protein • World markets • Range expansion to north uncertain • Infra-structure • Bio-economic considerations (fuel, risk) • Sustainable fisheries – Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management • International cooperation Photo Credit: Sam Zmolek, NOAA Fisheries. Photo of Dutch Harbor, Alaska
  15. 15. Transportation
  16. 16. Other issues: Larsen et al. 2014 • “Shifts in the timing and magnitude of seasonal biomass production could disrupt matched phenologies in the food webs, leading to decreased survival of dependent species (medium confidence).” • “Ocean acidification has the potential to inhibit embryo development and shell formation of some zooplankton and krill in the polar regions, with potentially far-reaching consequences to food webs in these regions (medium confidence).”
  17. 17. Core research questions • Future stratification – impedes nutrient exchange • Future storm frequency and intensity – nutrient pulses • Role of spatial distribution and timing of ice algal blooms • Vulnerability to shifts in onset of growing season (onset and duration) • Grazing impacts • Pelagic – Benthic coupling • Vulnerability to Ocean Acidification • Population level impacts of Ocean Acidification

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