Climate Change and Water Resources Analysis

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Climate Change and Water Resources Analysis

  1. 1. Planning for Climate Change in Water Resources Technical Analysis Presented November 16, 2010 at the ASCE Coasts, Oceans, Ports Rivers Institute (COPRI) 2010 Congress, Memphis, TN Technical Sessions: Track II Climate Adaptation and Sustainability in Ports Presenter: Michael DePue, PE, CFM (PBS&J) For Copy of Presentation Contact Michael DePue, PE, CFM Vice President, PBS&J 10 East Doty Street, Suite 800 Madison, WI, USA 53703 Main: 1-608-204-5950 mdepue@pbsj.com
  2. 2. Outline • Climate Change Trends • Adapting our Technical Analyses to Climate Change • References
  3. 3. Worldwide Projected Precipitation Changes From: IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp. More Precip Less Precip
  4. 4. Worldwide Projected Changes in Runoff From: IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp. More Runoff Less Runoff
  5. 5. Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective 2009 From: Brekke, L.D., Kiang, J.E., Olsen, J.R., Pulwarty, R.S., Raff, D.A., Turnipseed, D.P., Webb, R.S., and White, K.D., 2009, Climate change and water resources management—A federal perspective: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1331, 65 p. (Also available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1331/) Temperature Trends Sea Level Trends
  6. 6. U.S. Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise 2009 From: “U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.1, Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region.” Lead Agency: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Other Key Participating Agencies: U.S. Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Contributing Agencies: Department of Transportation. January 15, 2009
  7. 7. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States http://www.globalchange.gov/ June 2009 From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009. http://www.globalchange.gov/
  8. 8. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States http://www.globalchange.gov/ June 2009 From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009. http://www.globalchange.gov/
  9. 9. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States http://www.globalchange.gov/ June 2009 From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009. http://www.globalchange.gov/ Energy-Water Nexus
  10. 10. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States http://www.globalchange.gov/ June 2009 • Key findings • Average U.S. temperature has risen more than 2°F over the past 50 years • Precipitation has increased an average of about 5 percent over the past 50 years • Wet areas wetter, dry areas drier. • Heaviest downpours have increased approximately 20 percent on average in the past century • Strongest increases in the wettest places. • Many types of extreme weather events have become more frequent and intense during the past 40 to 50 years. From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009. http://www.globalchange.gov/
  11. 11. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States http://www.globalchange.gov/ June 2009 • Other trends occurring on regional scale • A longer growing season • Less winter precipitation falling as snow and more as rain • Reduced snowpack • Earlier breakup of winter ice on lakes and rivers • Earlier spring snowmelt and earlier peak river flows • In some areas, average fall precipitation has increased by 30 percent • Increase in percentage of land area experiencing drought • Warmer coast waters and more hurricanes From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009. http://www.globalchange.gov/
  12. 12. Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought (USGS, Abrupt Climate Change, 2008) Water infrastructure will have to be redesigned. Water use will have to adjust to limited water availability. From: CCSP, 2008: Abrupt Climate Change. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Clark, P.U., A.J. Weaver (coordinating lead authors), E. Brook, E.R. Cook, T.L. Delworth, and K. Steffen (chapter lead authors)]. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 459 pp.
  13. 13. A longer growing season http://www.arborday.org/media/mapchanges.cfm Shifting Hardiness Zones Increase in mean global temperature of 1.8°C is likely to shorten growing season in Tropics, lengthen growing season in higher latitudes. Mid-latitude impacts are mixed. (USDA, 2001) http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/aib765/aib765-8.pdf From: Roy Darwin. United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Climate Change and Food Security. Agriculture Information Bulletin Number 765-8 June 2001
  14. 14. Adapting our Technical Analyses to Climate Change
  15. 15. Selected key trends for modeling impact analysis Type Scale Impact Source Cyclones Global Increase in tropical cyclone peak w ind intensities IPCC 2001 Land Cover USA A longer grow ing season NOAA 2009 Precipitation Global Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensities IPCC 2001 Precipitation Global Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought IPCC 2001 Precipitation Global More intense precipitation events IPCC 2001 Sea Level Rise USA Sea level has risen 2 to 5 inches during the past 50 years along many U.S. coasts NOAA 2009 Temperatures Global Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over nearly all land areas IPCC 2001
  16. 16. Conceptual Model of Effects to Technical Analyses Climate Change Impact Topography Riverine Hydrology Riverine Hydraulics Coastal Surge Model Coastal Wave Model Hydraulic Structures Credit: FEMA News Photo, Marvin Nauman Credit: NOAA News Photo Credit: California Department of Water Resources Credit: PBS&J Credit: PBS&J Credit: PBS&J
  17. 17. Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities Topography Riverine Hydrology Riverine Hydraulics Coastal Surge Model Coastal Wave Model Hydraulic Structures Change in Max Wind Radius Change in Max Wind Speed Change in Max Wind Direction Change in Max Wind Speed Change in Max Wind Direction Change in Max Wind Duration Change in Max Wind Duration Wave erosion against levees Wave erosion at dams Wind-driven backwaters Blow down of vegetation could change runoff Cyclones in areas not previously seen or rare Combined Probability Issues
  18. 18. A longer growing season Longer growing season Topography Riverine Hydrology Riverine Hydraulics Coastal Surge Model Coastal Wave Model Hydraulic Structures Changes to vegetation on sand dunes Changes to vegetation in mangrove areas More vegetation on levees More vegetation on dams New environmental permit reqs for maintenance Changes to surface roughness and runoff times Changes to runoff coefficients Evapotranspiration changes Changes to erosion of landscape More difficulty obtaining aerial topo due to vegetation Increased roughness in channels Wider floodplains due to more roughness Potential for additional or new debris in floods Changes to near- shore roughness Coastal erosion / accretion due to vegetation changes More topo coverage needed for bigger floods-roughness
  19. 19. Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensities Increase in cyclone mean & peak precip intensities Topography Riverine Hydrology Riverine Hydraulics Coastal Surge Model Coastal Wave Model Hydraulic Structures Pluvial erosion of dunes ? Combined probability issues Changes to PMP/ PMF for Dams Changes to interior drainage design precip for levees Design rainfalls outdated Changes to AMC Change to precip S-curve Time of concentration changes Changes to erosion of landscape Possible need for unsteady routing due to flash effects More structure overtopping Wider floodplains Combined probability issues More erosive flows, geomorph changes More topo coverage needed for bigger floods Rating curves must be bigger for higher flows More breakouts to other basins with higher flows Additional saturation time for structures Groundwater table increases or decrease More breakouts to other basins with higher flows More breakouts to other basins with higher flows
  20. 20. Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought Increased summer drying and risk of drought Topography Riverine Hydrology Riverine Hydraulics Coastal Surge Model Coastal Wave Model Hydraulic Structures Changes to vegetation on sand dunes Less vegetation on levees—more erosion Less vegetation on dams—more erosion Loss of endangered species and env permit issues Changes to surface roughness and runoff times Changes to runoff coefficients Evapotranspiration changes Changes to erosion of landscape Dust storms, limiting aerial flight Less vegetation in channel, more erosion Harder to convince public of flood risk in drought More flashy flows, unsteady routing needed Coastal erosion / accretion due to vegetation changes Desert pavement formation ? Fire risk to pump stations, etc. Increased fire risk with associated runoff changes Less saturation time for structures Groundwater table increases or decrease
  21. 21. More intense precipitation events More intense precipitation events Topography Riverine Hydrology Riverine Hydraulics Coastal Surge Model Coastal Wave Model Hydraulic Structures Pluvial erosion of dunes ? Combined probability issues Changes to PMP/ PMF for Dams Changes to interior drainage design precip for levees Design rainfalls outdated Changes to AMC Change to precip S-curve Time of concentration changes Changes to erosion of landscape Possible need for unsteady routing due to flash effects More structure overtopping Wider floodplains Combined probability issues More erosive flows, geomorph changes Increased pluvial erosion near structures More topo coverage needed for bigger floods More breakouts to other basins with higher flows Additional saturation for structures Groundwater table increases or decrease Rating curves must be bigger for higher flows Rating curves must be bigger for higher flows More breakouts to other basins with higher flows More breakouts to other basins with higher flows
  22. 22. Sea level has risen 2 to 5 inches during the past 50 years along many U.S. coasts Sea Level Rise Topography Riverine Hydrology Riverine Hydraulics Coastal Surge Model Coastal Wave Model Hydraulic Structures Increased erosion of sand dunes Higher stillwater elevations More stress on bulkheads and floodwalls Increased erosion of coastal levees Increased erosion of coastal bridges Changes to microhydrology Changes in near coast topography Downstream backwater changes Wider floodplains due to more backwater Additional tidal effects range Changes to near- shore roughness Coastal erosion / accretion Deeper near shore depths & wave effects Higher stillwater elevations Datum tie-ins for SLR changes Overflows to inland areas—better topo needed Additional saturation time for structures Groundwater table increases or decrease Waves break further inland
  23. 23. Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over nearly all land areas Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over land Topography Riverine Hydrology Riverine Hydraulics Coastal Surge Model Coastal Wave Model Hydraulic Structures Changes to vegetation on sand dunes Less vegetation on levees—more erosion Less vegetation on dams—more erosion Loss of endangered species and env permit issues Changes to surface roughness and runoff times Changes to runoff coefficients Evapotranspiration changes Changes to erosion of landscape Dust storms, limiting aerial flight Less vegetation in channel, more erosion More flashy flows, unsteady routing needed Coastal erosion / accretion due to vegetation changes Desert pavement formation ? Fire risk to pump stations, etc. Increased fire risk with associated runoff changes More topo coverage needed for fire- related floods Less saturation time for structures Groundwater table decrease Moisture changes require changes in PMP
  24. 24. References 1. Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P. Palutikof, Eds., 2008: Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp. 2. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp. 3. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp. 4. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976pp. 5. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA., XXX pp. 6. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009. http://www.globalchange.gov/ 7. Roy Darwin. United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Climate Change and Food Security. Agriculture Information Bulletin Number 765-8 June 2001 8. “Practical Consideration of Climate Change, Floodplain Risk Management Guideline.” State of New South Wales through the Department of Environment and Climate Change. October 25, 2007. See: http://www.tweed.nsw.gov.au/CouncilMeetings/pdfs/O5%20%5BEO- OC%5D%20Climate%20Change%20Impacts%20on%20Flooding.pdf 9. CCSP, 2008: Abrupt Climate Change. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Clark, P.U., A.J. Weaver (coordinating lead authors), E. Brook, E.R. Cook, T.L. Delworth, and K. Steffen (chapter lead authors)]. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 459 pp. 10. “U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.1, Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region.” Lead Agency: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Other Key Participating Agencies: U.S. Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Contributing Agencies: Department of Transportation. January 15, 2009 11. National Water Program Strategy, Response to Climate Change. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Water (4101M) EPA 800-R-08-001. http://www.epa.gov/water/climatechange, September 2008 12. Brekke, L.D., Kiang, J.E., Olsen, J.R., Pulwarty, R.S., Raff, D.A., Turnipseed, D.P., Webb, R.S., and White, K.D., 2009, Climate change and water resources management—A federal perspective: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1331, 65 p. (Also available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1331/) 13. Willows, R.I. and Connell, R.K. (Eds.). (2003). Climate adaptation: Risk, uncertainty and decision-making. UKCIP Technical Report. UKCIP, Oxford. 14. IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA, 398 pp.
  25. 25. QUESTIONS?

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