This document summarizes projections of future Arctic climate from the research of Zachary Labe. Sea ice extent is declining at a rate of 0.8 million km2 per decade as Arctic temperatures rise more than twice as fast as the global average. This warming amplifies in the Arctic (Arctic amplification) and is influencing weather patterns in northern mid-latitudes. Research indicates that continued sea ice loss will cause significant warming over the Arctic Ocean and a shift in the jet stream, with impacts on weather extremes. Understanding Arctic climate variability is important for assessing future local and remote responses to changes in the region.

1. Projections of a future
Arctic climate
@ZLabe
Zachary Labe
University of California, Irvine
14 May 2019
Irvine Valley College

2. Zack Labe
Pioneer Coal Mine Blue Whale of Catoosa Centralia Underground Fire Roadside America Greenland Sea (81°N)
Linglestown, PA Cornell – Ithaca, New York 4th Year, PhD – EarthSS
Study: Arctic – midlatitude climate variability
Enjoy: roadside oddities and diners
Hobbies: gardening, #scicomm, hiking,
collecting/traveling to lighthouses
Dream: study in isolated Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard

6. The Arctic.

17. Arctic Amplification

19. ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION
WHY
Sea ice extent is dropping at a
rate of nearly
0.8 million km2/decade
Temperatures rising >2x as
fast as the globally averaged
mean

21. ARCTIC
NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE
[Modified from SWIPA, 2017]

22. Sea Ice.

23. [ SIT ]
Sea Ice
Thickness
Depth between sea
surface and ice/snow layer
[ SIC ]
Sea Ice
Concentration
Fraction (%) of seawater
covered by ice
Snow
Ice
[ SIE ]
Sea Ice
Extent
Area of seawater
covered by any amount
of ice (>15%)

24. [ SIT ]
Sea Ice
Thickness
Depth between sea
surface and ice/snow layer
[ SIC ]
Sea Ice
Concentration
Fraction (%) of seawater
covered by ice
Snow
Ice
[ SIE ]
Sea Ice
Extent
Area of seawater
covered by any amount
of ice (>15%)

25. [ SIE ]
Sea Ice
Extent
Area of seawater
covered by any amount
of ice (>15%)
[ SIT ]
Sea Ice
Thickness
Depth between sea
surface and ice/snow layer
[ SIC ]
Sea Ice
Concentration
Fraction (%) of seawater
covered by ice
Snow
Ice

30. THOMAN,LABEETAL.2019,submitted

31. SeaIceThickness(m)
Observations
LABEETAL.2018,JCLI

32. Modeling vs. Field Work

33. Ny-Ålesund

34. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017

35. ”Cryo-copter”

39. Ny-Ålesund

40. stuck in the sea ice…

42. Prins Karls Forland

44. sea ice brine channels

45. sea ice brine channels

46. snow pits

47. snow pits

48. Algae

49. isbjørn

50. isbjørn guard

51. Kongsvegen Glacier

52. Longyearbyen

53. polarized sea ice core

54. Thinning Ice.

55. Changing
Sea Ice Thickness
MELIA ET AL., 2016
“Sea ice Decline and 21st
century trans-Arctic
shipping routes”
PIZZOLATO ET AL.,
2016“The influence of declining sea
ice on shipping activity in the
Canadian Arctic”
POST ET AL., 2013
“Ecological consequences
of sea-ice decline”
LABE ET AL., 2018
“Contributions of ice thickness
to the atmospheric response
from projected arctic sea ice
loss”

57. LABEETAL.2018,JCLI

58. LABEETAL.2018,JCLI

59. LABEETAL.2018,JCLI

60. LABEETAL.2018,JCLI

61. LABEETAL.2018,JCLI

62. LABEETAL.2018,JCLI

63. WHY
How does Arctic amplification
influence extreme weather
events?
Has it?
Will it?
Can it?
Necessary to understand
mechanisms of Arctic climate
variability before assessing
future local/remote responses
Barnes and
Screen [2015]

64. Changes in Weather

65. Future Arctic
What happens to the weather
from a loss of projected sea ice
area and sea ice thickness?
Significant warming over the
Arctic Ocean
Shift of the jet stream
LABE ET AL. 2018, GR

66. Future Arctic
What happens to the weather
from a loss of projected sea ice
area and sea ice thickness?
Significant warming over the
Arctic Ocean
Shift of the jet stream
LABE ET AL. 2018, GR

67. Reduced temperature
gradient between the
equator and the Arctic
What other climate
feedbacks may influence
the jet stream?
LABEETAL.2018,GRL

68. LABEETAL.2018,GRL

69. LABEETAL.2018,GRL

70. LABEETAL.2018,GRL

71. COLDEXTREMES
LABEETAL.2019,GRL

72. Crystal Polar Cruise, Aug. 2016
Is this effective
communication?

73. Crystal Serenity Polar Cruise, Aug. 2016

75. Crystal Polar Cruise, Aug. 2016
We need scientists.
We need educators.
We need innovators.
We need communicators.

76. Graduate School

77. The Department of Earth System
Science at the University of
California, Irvine

78. The Department of Earth System Science at the
University of California, We study how the atmosphere,
land and oceans interact as a system and how the
Earth will change over a human lifetime
We focus on key areas of climate science including
biogeochemistry of oceans and atmospheres, climate
dynamics, atmospheric science, cryosphere, the global
water cycle, and human systems

79. Undergraduate
• We offer two interdisciplinary
undergraduate degrees: (B.S.) Bachelor of
Science in Earth System Science and (B.A.)
Bachelor of Arts in Environmental Science.
• Coursework covers the science of the Earth
as a system, the causes of current
environmental problems and pathways
toward global sustainability.
• Students are encouraged to conduct
research and field work and participate in the
UCI Education Abroad Program.
• Graduates go on to graduate school or
begin careers as research scientists, policy
advisors, data analysts, environmental
consultants or technical writers.
Graduate
• The UC Irvine Ph.D. in Earth System
Science program is ranked among the top
doctoral programs in the country by the
National Research Council.
• Coursework includes a multidisciplinary
curriculum covering physical, chemical and
biological aspects of Earth system science.
• Our graduate students travel around the
world to conduct research in mountains,
forests, oceans, caves, glaciers, laboratories
and climate simulation centers.
• Graduates go on to become post-doctoral
scholars, faculty and leading Earth science
researchers

80. Zachary Labe
zlabe@uci.edu
@ZLabe
QUESTIONS