Nikolaus ARNOLD, Klaus GUFLER, Steven C. SHOLLY University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, Republic of

1. 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012
Fuel cycle risks imposed by a
nuclear growth scenario
Nikolaus Arnold, Klaus Gufler
Institute of Security - and Risk Sciences, University of
Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
29. August 2012

2. Nuclear growth projections
o Even after Fukushima
• IEA – World Energy Outlook:
„In the New Policies Scenario, nuclear output rises by more than 70%
over the period to 2035, only slightly less than projected last year.”
• IAEA in March 2012:
“..between 35 and 100 percent by 2030 ..”

3. U supply scenarios
• Several publications
suggest shortfalls in
supply
o Concerning amounts and
capbabilities to mine
Source: EWG 2006
Source: M. Guidolin: A nuclear power renaissance?

4. U supply scenarios
• Even in the nuclear industry …
Sources: WNA and Uranium 1
• Possible outcomes
o U expensive or not supplyable
o Shortage in energy supply / blackouts

5. The nuclear world
http://www.risk.boku.ac.at/
Satellite images © Google Maps ,2012

6. Producers vs. consumers
Figures from Uranium 2011: Resources, production and demand, OECD/IAEA 2012
• Transport
o Large distances
o Good safety/security record
o More incidents with rising demand can be expected

7. Global NFC Network
Uranium Ore Concentrate (UOC)
UOC or Uranium compounds
Enriched uranium
Data: United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database
Nuclear Fuel

8. European NFC Network
European NFC - Status 2009
Analysis with Pajek – Program for Large Network Analysis. (http://vlado.fmf.uni-lj.si/pub/networks/pajek/)

9. Non-technical aspects
• Political Aspects
o Security of Supply
o Public acceptance
• Security
• Proliferation risk

10. Conclusions
• Growth in nuclear energy share will need adoption
of fuel cycle
• NFC - complex global network
• Few data publically available, data not consistent
• Mining capacities to be developed
• Underestimation of supply risk due to historical
development
• Few large enrichment and conversion facilities
o Located in few countries
o Development of NFC facilities in Asia?
• Some countries may have to reconsider nuclear
plans