Андрій Гріцевскій, Менеджер проектів з перспективного прогнозу розвитку атомної енергетики Департаменту атомної енергетики МАГАТЕ

1. Perspectives of Future Development
of Nuclear Power
Andrii Gritsevskyi
Department of Nuclear Energy
International Atomic Energy Agency
International Conference “Law Carbon Electricity”
13 June 2017, Kyiv, Ukraine

2. IAEA’s 2016 Scientific Forum
“When world leaders adopted the Sustainable
Development Goals last year, they explicitly
recognized – for the first time – that science,
technology and innovation are essential for
development”
IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano

3. “Nuclear power has saved the release of an
estimated 56 Gt of CO2 since 1971, or close to
two years of global emissions at current rates”
World Energy Outlook 2014
International Energy Agency

4. “Climate change is a common challenge faced
by all nations, and it is important that the
international community joins together to
combat this challenge.”
Ambassador Jingye Cheng,
China’s Permanent Representative to the UN and
Other International Organizations

5. Global CO2 emissions from the electricity sector and emissions
avoided by using three low carbon generation technologies
Source: IAEA calculations based on data from PRIS and IEA

6. Energy Situation in 2015

7. 1.1 B people
no access to energy
2.7 B people
rely on biomass
1 B people
no health care
due to energy poverty
References: Map – NASA, Data – IEA, WHO
2 M excess deaths per year
due to exposure to indoor air
pollution

8. World Electricity Production Mix 2015
66.7%
17.8%
11.2%
4.3%
Thermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewables
Source: RDS-1 2016

9. Nuclear share of electricity
(2015) 76,3
56,5
55,9
52,7
38
37,5
34,5
34,3
33,7
33,5
32,5
31,7
31,3
20,3
19,5
18,9
18,6
17,3
16,6
14,1
6,8
4,8
4,7
4,4
3,7
3,5
3
2,8
1,3
0,5
FRANCE
UKRAINE
SLOVAKIA
HUNGARY
SLOVENIA
BELGIUM
ARMENIA
SWEDEN
FINLAND
SWITZERLAND
CZECH REPUBLIC
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF
BULGARIA
SPAIN
USA
UK
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
ROMANIA
CANADA
GERMANY
MEXICO
ARGENTINA
SOUTH AFRICA
PAKISTAN
NETHERLANDS
INDIA
CHINA
BRAZIL
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF
JAPAN
0 20 40 60 80 100
Nuclear Share (%)
Source: RDS-2 2016

10. Current status: May 2017
In operation
449 nuclear power
reactors [392 GWe]
• USA 99
• France 58
• Japan 42
• China 37
• Russia 35
• S. Korea 25

11. Current status: May 2017
Under Construction
60 nuclear power reactors
• China 20
• Russia 7
• India 5
• UAE 4
• USA 4

12. Power Reactor Information System

13. RDS-1 2016

14. Value of Prediction
Lord Kelvin, the celebrated British physicist,
inventor and president of the Royal Society at the
end of the 19th century:
• In 1895 observed that ''heavier-than-air flying
machines are impossible'‘;
• In 1897 he found that ''radio has no future'' and
• In 1900 he assured his scientific colleagues that
''X-rays are a hoax.''

15. A history of mistaken forecasts
In 1975 IAEA still forecast, globally
1990: 1000 – 1300 GW(e)
2000: 3600 – 5300 GW(e)
Actual 15 May 2017 capacity about 392 GW(e)

16. Reference Data Series No. 1
Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is
an annual publication containing
estimates of energy, electricity and
nuclear power trends up to the year
2050.
• 36 editions – 36+ years of experience
• Major improvements over time
• 10 figures and 14 tables
• Referenced in about 1200 publications

17. “Predictions are difficult, especially about the
future” attributed to Niels Bohr and 20+ other people
• Projections of future role of nuclear power are presented as LOW and HIGH
estimates
• Projections are NOT predictions
• The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose
validity must be constantly subjected to critical review
 Economic growth;
 Correlation of economic growth and energy use;
 Technology performance and costs;
 Energy resource availability and future fuel prices;
 Energy policy and physical, environmental and economic constraints.

18. Global Nuclear Power Projections 2016
377 390 417
382,9
431
598
898
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2015 2020 2030 2050
GW(e)
Year
low high

19. 108
92
60
112,7 118 126 130
0
100
200
300
400
2015 2020 2030 2050
GW(e)
Year
North America
5 8 115 5 13
35
0
100
200
300
400
2015 2020 2030 2050
Title
Title
Latin America
101
77
48
112,1 109 112 118
0
100
200
300
400
2015 2020 2030 2050
GW(e)
Year
Western Europe
1,9 2,9 81,9 1,9 8,9
23
0
100
200
300
400
2015 2020 2030 2050
GW(e)
Year
Africa
12
27,7
55
6,9
17,7
47,7
116
0
100
200
300
400
2015 2020 2030 2050
GW(e)
Year
Middle East & South Asia
98
132
154
93,8
123
216
351
0
100
200
300
400
2015 2020 2030 2050
GW(e)
Year
Far East
52 50
75
50,5 55
76
113
0
100
200
300
400
2015 2020 2030 2050
GW(e)
Year
Eastern Europe
0 50
12
0
100
200
300
400
2015 2020 2030 2050
GW(e)
Year
South East Asia & the Pacific
Nuclear Power Development in Different Regions
RDS-1 2016

20. IAEA
IAEA 2016: LOW Case
382,9
130 138
390
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2015 Retirements Additions 2030
GW(e)

21. IAEA
IAEA 2016: LOW Case
382,9
339
373
417
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2015 Retirements Additions 2050
GW(e)

22. IAEA
IAEA 2016: HIGH Case
382,9
40
256
598
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2015 Retirements Additions 2030
GW(e)

23. IAEA
IAEA 2016: HIGH Case
382,9
285
800
898
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2015 Retirements Additions 2050
GW(e)

24. Nuclear power and climate change

25. IAEA

26. 60 Years of Nuclear Power:
Past, Present, Future

27. Thank you!