Bem presentation London Envirosec 2008

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Presentation by Bem to defense industry technologists on the opportunities created by climate change. See EnviroSec'08 - London http://www.dynamixx-e2d.com/index.php/conferences/

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Bem presentation London Envirosec 2008

  1. 1. AgendaI. What drives climate change investmentII. Strategy analysis example: Capitalizing on the climate change mega trendIII. Definition of the climate change market segments and exampletechnologies
  2. 2. I. What drives climate change investment –Human Population Growth1830 the world’s population reached ONE BILLION1930, just 100 years later the population reached 2 billion.1960 it reached 3 billion15 more years later in 1975, it climbed to 4 billion.12 years later in 1987, it crossed the 5 billion mark.12 years later in 1999 the world’s reached 6 billionBy 2050, the world’s population is estimated to be 8 billion+
  3. 3. I. What drives climate change investment --- Access toEnergyAccess to energy and future energy infrastructure have come to the forefront for investment priorities.In fact, the link between energy and economic growth, poverty alleviation, environment and climate impactsis becoming increasingly visible.Millions of Barrels per Day of Oil EquivalentSource: Exxon Mobil
  4. 4. II. Strategy analysis exampleAeroVironment Inc.AV develops and produces Unmanned Aircraft Systems andEfficient Electric Energy Technologies that enable our customersto rewrite the rules - of engagement, productivity, efficiency andsafety - to their advantage. AV is relentlessly committed to deliveringand supporting innovations that help our customers succeed.AV Product Groups• Unmanned Aircraft Systems• EV Charging Systems• EV Test Systems• Clean Energy Systems
  5. 5. III. Adjacent Defense Marketsa) Environmental Impact Managementb) Human Migrationc) Earth Polar Operationsd) Managing and Providing Energye) Big Science Space Solar, Weather Engineering
  6. 6. Defense Adjacent Market Segment PotentialRevenueEnvironmental Impact Management $5 billionHuman Migration $ 10 billionEarth Polar Operations $ 10 billionManaging and Providing Energy $ 100 billionBig Science $ 20 billion$750 billion dollarsper year R&Dfunding withIncreasing amountsfor climate changeIII. Adjacent Defense Markets
  7. 7. III.a Environmental Impact ManagementKey environmentalperformance metricstracked and reportedeg. Greenhouse gasemissionsInformed strategicand policy decisionmakingInformedoperational andtactical decisionmakingMathematical modelsare used to integrateenvironmental data,make an assessment,and generate forecastsEnvironmental dataobservation,analysis, andforecasting• Satellites• Sensors• Optical devices• Trace chemistry• Radar• Weatherinstruments• Informationtechnology• Networktechnology• Computerprocessing• Algorithms• Data storage• Informationtechnology• Networktechnology• Climate Science• Earth Science• Data access• Image processing• Communications• Decision makingframeworks• Metrics• Standardizedmeasurementdevices• Data storage andretrievaleyechnologiesExample CustomersThe European Environment Agency The United Kingdom’s Met OfficeThe United States Environmental Protection Agency The United States National Climatic Data CenterThe United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin NASA’s Earth Science Mission DirectorateEuropean Space Agency Observing the Earth Program Japan Aerospace Exploration AgencyChina National Space Administration Russian Federal Space ProgramROSHYDROMET India’s Department of Space Remote Sensing ProgramsDefinitionClimate Monitoring Climate Modeling Near Decisions Long Decisions Feedback
  8. 8. III.a Environmental Impact Management ExampleTechnologyThailands Theos imaging satellite a 750-kilogram (1,650-pound) spacecraft is designed to supply 2-meterpanchromatic and 15-meter multispectral wide-swath imagery for cartography, land use, agriculture and otherproducts. EADS Astrium, which built the $130 million Thai spacecraft. Launched in 2008.
  9. 9. III.b Human MigrationKeyTechnologiesExampleCustomersDefinition Climate change alone is unlikely to trigger state failure in any state out to 2030, but theimpacts will worsen existing problems—such as poverty, social tensions, environmentaldegradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions. Economic migrants willperceive additional reasons to migrate. Of the 191 million international migrants last year,about 115 million lived in developed countries, according to UN figures. Three-quarters of allmigrants lived in just 28 countries in 2005, with one every five migrants living in the UnitedStates.• Border Fences• Integrated cameras and sensors,• Ground-based radar,• Mobile surveillance systems,• Unmanned aerial systems• Human identification systemsUnited States Department Homeland SecurityWestern Government s Armed ForcesWorld Governing OrganizationsAfghan refugee
  10. 10. III.b Human Migration Example TechnologyClimate models predict between 59.6% and 75% of the land in Mexico has and will becomeunsuitable for maize production due to climate change. Climate change is a factor in increaseddesertification and increased water salinization in Mexico pushing people into urban centers and tomigrate across the border to the United States. The United States has responded by securing theUS Mexican Border.Virtual Fences
  11. 11. III.c Earth Polar OperationsKeyTechnologiesExampleCustomersDefinitionA seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is possible by 2060 ---since 1979, when routinesatellite monitoring began, Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the summer melt season hasdeclined by more than 20%, a rate of -9.1% per decade or 100,000 km2/year. Extrapolationis risky – the satellite-based sea ice record is short and sensitive to imprints of naturalclimate variability . At stake is access to 8 billion tons of oil and gas and new globalshipping routes.• Go-anywhere icebreakers.• Extreme cold weather transportation equipment.• Extreme cold weather underwater listening devices, to detect shipmovements in sensitive areas.• Extended radar and communications coverage.• Artic search and rescue capacity.United States Coast GuardUnited State NavyGlobal Oil CompaniesCanada, Finland, Norwegian Governments
  12. 12. III.c Earth Polar Operations Example TechnologyUS Congressional Research Service said it would cost between $800 million and $925million for a new icebreaker. Russian state-owned oil major Rosneft has a long rangestrategy to acquire 16 ice breakers by 2030.USGCC HEALY (W-AGB 20) built by Northrop Grumman Ship Systems AvondaleOperations a subsidiary of Northrop Grumman Corporation
  13. 13. III.d Managing and Providing EnergyReproduced with permission from the World Resources InstituteDefinition andKey technologiesDetermining the mix of energy that optimizes both climate change and energy securityProviding the energy for end users.
  14. 14. III.d Managing and Providing EnergyExampleCustomers
  15. 15. III.d Managing and Providing Energy Example Technology• The U.S. Air Force has certified blended synthetic fuels for its fleet of B-52 bombersand continues the certification process for additional aircraft. In September 2008 theF-22 shown here was certified.• Rentech, Inc. (www.rentechinc.com), incorporated in 1981, has a patentedprocess to create synthetic fuels from a variety of feed stocks--- coal, bio mass,municipal waste, etc.
  16. 16. III.d Managing and Providing Energy Example Technology• 23 active U.S. utility patents• 12 active U.S. utility patents with 518 asprimary USPC code• 8 high quality patents (citation matrix cell1 or 2)• 4 high quality patents in 518 USPC• Charles Benham most prolific inventorAnalysis provided by The Patent BoardThe market capitalization of Rentechon 10/21/08 is $125 million.Other patent holders in this technology area include Syntroleum,Exxon Mobil, Conoco Phillips, and Chevron. Syntroleum Corp isof similar size with a market capitalization of $46 million.
  17. 17. III.e Big SciencePeak Year ProgramProgram Sector Year in 2002 billion $ in 2002 billion $Manhattan Project Defence 1940-45 10.0$ 25.0$Apollo Program Space 1963-72 23.8$ 184.6$Project Independence Energy 1975-82 7.8$ 49.9$Reagan defence Defence 1981-89 58.4$ 445.1$War on Terror Defence 2002-04 67.7$ 187.1$
  18. 18. III.e Big Science Space Solar, Weather EngineeringLook deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better.Albert Einstein
  19. 19. Credits- Objective and analytical advice grounded in economic driven leading edge business practices- Focused on winning by retrenching, adapting, and advancing in ways which reflect the ebbs andflows of competitive moves and economic realities.- Confidential and discreet- Cost-effectiveA Special Thanks Tohttp://www.patentboard.comGene Bem’s consultancy is

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