5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. RiKoV
A MANAGEMENT COCKPIT FOR
COMPLEX RISK MANAGEMENT
STRATEGIC PLANNING AND
INTELLIGENT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE SECURITY OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT
- RISK ANALYSIS -
OF TERRORIST THREATS TO
RAIL-BOUND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION WITH
EFFICIENT MEASURES
RikoV
Risks and Costs caused by Terrorist Threat in
Public Rail-Transport (ÖPV)
Davos, 24.8.2014 VERBUNDPARTNER:

2. RiKoV
Agenda
1 Introduction
2 Overview RiKoV
3 Working Packages
RiKoV 2
4 Conclusion

3. RiKoV
Agenda
1 Introduction
2 Overview RiKoV
3 Working Packages
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4 Conclusion

4. RiKoV
Introduction
RiKoV
- BMBF research project
- Risks and Costs caused by Terrorist Threat in Public Rail-Transport (ÖPV)
- UniBw in cooperation with other partners
- Oct 2012 – Oct 2016
RiKoV 4

5. RiKoV
RiKoV-Partner
business partner
UniBw Cassidian/ Airbus KIT
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FHK
associate partner
• MVG
(Munich Transport Association)
• BKA
(German Federal Office of Criminal Investigation)
• KVB
(Cologne Transport Association)
• Polizei RLP
(Police Rheinland-Pfalz)
• Deutsche Bahn
(German Railways)
• Bundespolizei

6. RiKoV
Agenda
1 Introduction
2 Overview RiKoV
3 Working Packages
RiKoV 6
4 Conclusion

7. RiKoV
Short abstract of RiKoV:
- Protect Critical Infrastructures better from terrorist attacks
- Protection by an overall risk management (RM)
- Taking public transport (PT) on rails as an example for
data farming/ BIG DATA
- Risk/ Trendmonitoring: Visualization on Complex Networks:
DEVELPOMENT OF A CERTAIN RISK MANAGEMENT COCKPIT
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8. RiKoV
Short abstract of RiKoV:
Following items are considered by the cockpit:
- Comprehending the terroristic threats and vulnerability of the infrastructure
- Evaluating the respective risks
- with view to consequences and costs involved
- and on the basis of practical experience gained by the police and
strategic management, foresight analysis, resilience measures
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9. RiKoV
Short abstract of RiKoV:
Following items are considered (2/2):
- Identifying and assessing appropriate measures
- in order to eliminate unacceptable risks
- or at least mitigate their consequences without violating social
standards, basic rights and rules
- Setting up plans for realistic means of protection considering economical
scopes, and laying down the consequences thereof.
- This will particularly include official decision parameters offering
proposals for protection or even orders
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10. RiKoV
Innovative Risk Management Approaches:
The overall risk-management is aiming
to achieve an
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optimum of security
within the range of a maximum in
- technical and organizational respects,
- economically convenient
- a notion of security in compliance
with social standards
- Socio-technial system
Comprising
- the prevention/ resilience
- defence of threats
- ETH Zürich, RISK ASSESSMENT HORIZON SCANNING

11. RiKoV
Process of „RiskAtlas“: REACHBACK ARCHITECTURE
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12. RiKoV
Agenda
1 Introduction
2 Overview RiKoV
3 Working Packages
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4 Conclusion

13. RiKoV
Working Packages ... Very close to „GRF RISK ACADEMY“
The Working Packages of RiKoV are:
• AP1: Problem Analysis
• AP2: Operation Model
• AP3: Cost Estimation
• AP4: Scenario-based Risk Evaluation
• AP5: Risk Control
• AP6: Realisationplan of Security Measures
• AP7: Integration, Test and Validation
• AP8: Publications and Communication of Deliverables
17.09.2013 RiKoV 13

14. RiKoV
Connections of WPs: SOA BASED Decision Support System
AP1: Problem Analysis
Input: Historical Attacs
Analysis: Mini-Scenarios / Vignettes
Output: Procedures, Vignettes
AP2: Operation Model
Input: Vignettes, Procedures
Analysis: Demages, Procedures
Output: Scenarios, Demonstrator
„OP-Analysis“
AP3: Cost Estimation
Input: OP-Analysis, Procedures
Analysis: Cost Estimation
Output: Demonstrator „Cost-Model“
AP4: Scenario-based Risk Estimation
Input: Scenarios, Procedures
Analysis: Attac-Risks
Output: Demonstrator „Risk-Estimation“
AP5: Risk Control
Input: Procedures, Estimation
Analysis: Effect Analysis and
jurisprudential view
Output: Demonstrator „Prio“
AP6: Realisationplan
Input: Costs & Prios of Security
Measures
Analysis: Restrictions and Rules
Output: Demonstrator:
„Procurement Planning“
AP7: Integration, Test and Validation
Input: Demonstrators
Analysis: Integration and Test
Output: Connection of APs
AP8: Publications and Communication of Deliverables: Presentations, Publications and Field Testing

15. RiKoV
„Emission Trading“
Mutlilayered Games
Optimal Decisions
Preference Structure
Nash/Pareto Equilibria
Lozovanu, Pickl 2010
BMBF Project:
MILAN 2009
Multilayered Games
on Networks

16. RiKoV
Varying allocation plans ...
MULTILAYERED – DECISION GAME

17. RiKoV
AP1: Problem Analysis
Institute UniBW
KIT IKET
KIT IIP
FHK
Cassidian
Man hour 9.5
3
3
20
5
Analysis of historical attacks
Generic ÖPV-System
Construction of Vignettes
• Historical attacks have been analysed
• A generic ÖPV-System has been
Analysis of Security Measures
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A1.1
A1.2
A1.3
A1.4
AP1 is completed in October 2013
Vignette
attacker aggressive
medium target
constructed
• Several Vignettes have been constructed
with the optinion of experts – additional
Vignettes are under construction
(altogether above 100)
• Security Measures will be analysed,
having regard to the Vignettes

18. RiKoV
Institute UniBW
KIT IKET
KIT IIP
FHK
Cassidian
Man hour 19
4
4
17
5.7
• Scenarios are builded with the opinion
of experts
AUTOMATIC GENERATION
-> RISK ATLAS/ METRICS
• Scenarios get
• graphically simulated
• evaluated with a constructed
ranking system
Scenario
AP2: Operations Model
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Modelling of the Process
Building Scenarios
Analysis of Demages
System Dynamics
A2.1
A2.2
A2.3
A2.4
AP2 is currently under construction
Finished in October 2014
Vignette
attacker aggre ssive
medium target
Process Description
Environment

19. RiKoV
AP3: Cost Estimation
Institute UniBW
KIT IKET
KIT IIP
FHK
Cassidian
Man hour 25
-
-­‐
-­‐
2.5
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Cost Estimation Methods
Model of Costs
Estimation of Costs
A3.1
A3.2
A3.3
NPS – Research Cooperation
The Demonstrator finished in Nov 2013
• Economic and mathematic methods
have been analysed
• Different costs have been classified
• Next step is to transfer the methods in
the Demonstrator
• Costs from comparable attacks became
analysed will be evaluated and
integrated
Demonstrator
„Cost Estimation“
finished in Nov 2013

20. RiKoV
AP4: Scenario-based
Risk Evaluation
Institute UniBW
KIT IKET
KIT IIP
FHK
Cassidian
Man hour 12.5
9
18
24
-­‐
Identification of Vulnerability
Identification of threat
Consequences of attacks
Risk-Matrix
Risk Assessment
AP4 is currently start running
The Demonstrator will be finished in Nov 2014
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A4.1
A4.5
• Assessment-Matrices for Vulnerability,
Threat and Consequences of attacks
will be constructed, using the Vignettes
• The Matrices will be constructed with
assessment-rankings
• They will be combinated to the Risk-
Matrix
• The Demonstrator Risk Assessment
will be build with the Risk-Matrix
Demonstrator
„Risk Assessment“
finished in Nov 2014
A4.2
A4.3
A4.4

21. RiKoV
AP5: Risk Control
Institute UniBW
KIT IKET
KIT IIP
FHK
Cassidian
Man hour 17.5
18
9
10.5
-­‐
• A mix of Security Measures will be
identificated with the coverage of
nearly all risks
• The Social Dimension will be
analysed, so that the Security
Measures won‘t breach against moral
concepts
• Tho Social Dimension will be
jurisprudentialy verified
• A Prioritization of Security Measures
will be implemented in the
Demonstrator using
Multi Criteria Methods, ABM
Demonstrator
„ Prioritization Method“
finished in April 2015
Risk Control
Effects of Security Measures
Consequences of attacks
Jurisprudential View
Choice of
Prioritization Method
Prioritization of
Security Measures
AP5 is currently start running
The Demonstrator will be finished in April 2015
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A5.1
A5.2
A5.3
A5.4
A5.5
A5.6

22. RiKoV
AP5: Risk Control
Institute UniBW
KIT IKET
KIT IIP
FHK
Cassidian
Man hour 17.5
18
9
10.5
-­‐
Structure of the Vignette Analysis:
Multilayered Decision Support Tool
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23. RiKoV
AP6: Realisationplan of
Security Measures
Institute UniBW
KIT IKET
KIT IIP
FHK
Cassidian
Man hour 12
-
-­‐
-­‐
0.8
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Planing Restrictions
Planing Parameters for the
Security Measures
Decision Rules
Optimization Method
Realisation Plan
A6.1
A6.5
AP6 started in November 2013
The Demonstrator will be finished in May 2015
• Optimal number of optimal Security
Measure will be constructed
• Restrictions will be considered
• With a convenient Optimization
Method, a Realisation Plan of
Security Measures will be calculated
• STRATEGIC PLANNING
• Resilience Analysis
Demonstrator
„ Realisationplan “
finished in May 2015
A6.2
A6.3
A6.4

24. RiKoV
Integration of Algorithms …

25. RiKoV
AP7: Integration, Test
and Validation
Institute UniBW
KIT IKET
KIT IIP
FHK
Cassidian
Man hour 27.5
3
3
11.5
0.8
RiKoV 25
Integration and Test
Validation
AP7 starts in November 2014
During the hole Runtime of the Project:
AP8: Publications and Communication of Deliverables:
Presentations, Publications and Field Testing
A7.1
A7.2
• All previous APs were put toghether and
integrated
• All Methods will be tested and validated

26. RiKoV
17.09.2013 RiKoV 26

27. RiKoV
OR: “Brücken schlagen …“

28. RiKoV
Computational Intelligence
n Oberbegriff für Neuronale Netze, Fuzzy Systeme,
Evolutionäre Algorithmen, Schwarmverfahren
n Vorbild: Evolution und natürliche Systeme
n Verstärkte Forschung & industrielle Nutzung seit ca.
1990
n Vorteile
n Analytische Systembeschreibung nicht (!)
erforderlich
n Ausreichend: black-box/Simulationsmodell
n Implementierung häufig einfach
n Robustes Verhalten (in der Regel)
DIES WENDEN WIR AUF CPM BEREITS AN!!!

29. RiKoV
Humanitäre Logistik
Intelligente
Auswahlentscheidungen…
SD
(System Dynamics)
ABMS
(Agent-based Modeling/
Simulation)
Data Farming
…in komplexen
Versorgungsnetzwerke
n
(bspw. Flughäfen)
Singapore/ Dubai
&

30. RiKoV
Agenda
1 Introduction
2 Overview RiKoV
3 Working Packages
4 Conclusion
17.09.2013 RiKoV 30

31. RiKoV
Forum Katastrophenvorsorge
4./5.11.14 Leipzig
„IT-Lösungen für die Katastrophenvorsorge“
*Krisenfrüherkennung*
RIKOV Special Invited Session
„Complex Analytics“
Berlin, 16.-18.9.14
*Risikobewertung*
Management Cockpit for
„Complex Risk Monitoring“
Davos, 25.-29.8.14
*Verschiedene Analysebenen*

32. RiKoV
Thank you for your attention!!
3.7.2014 RiKoV 32