This document provides an overview of project risk management processes based on the PMBOK 6th edition. It discusses the seven processes in project risk management, including plan risk management, identify risks, perform qualitative analysis, perform quantitative analysis, plan risk responses, implement risk responses, and monitor risks. It also describes key inputs, tools and techniques, and outputs for each process. The document emphasizes quantitative risk analysis methods like simulation and decision trees for assessing overall project risk. It provides examples of how to calculate expected monetary value and adjust risk based on the dynamic project environment.
3. UNDERSTAND THE SEVEN PROJECT MANAGEMENT
PROCESSES IN THE PROJECT RISK KNOWLEDGE AREA
KNOWLEDGE AREA
11. PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
PROJECT MANAGEMENT PROCESS GROUPS
INTEGRATING PLANNING EXECUTING MONITORING & CONTROLLING CLOSING
11.1 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT 11.7 MONITOR RISKS
11.2 IDENTIFY RISKS
11.3 PERFORM QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
11.4 PERFORM QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
11.5 PLAN RISK RESPONSES
11.6 IMPLEMENT RISK RESPONSES
4. UNDERSTAND THE SEVEN PROJECT MANAGEMENT
PROCESSES IN THE PROJECT RISK KNOWLEDGE AREA
Plan Risk Management
(How conduct risk management
activities for the project)
Identify Risk (Identification of
individual risks and sources of
overall project risk, and
documenting their
characteristics.
Perform a Qualitative Risk
Analysis
(Prioritazing individual risks for
further analysis by assessing
their probability of occurrence
and impact)
Perform Quantitative Analysis
(Numerically analysis of the
identified risks and other
uncertainties)
Plan Risk Responses
(Develop options, strategies and
agreeing on actions to address
overall and individual risks)
Implement Risk Responses
(Implementing all actions
agree-upon to address the
risks)
Monitor Risk
(Monitoring of implementation
of risk response plans, tracking
identified risks, analyzing new
risks, and evaluating risk
processes
5. UNDERSTAND THE SEVEN PROJECT MANAGEMENT PROCESSES IN THE
PROJECT RISK KNOWLEDGE AREA
Plan
Response
s
Identify
Qualitativ
e
Analysis
Quantitativ
e Analysis
Plan
manageme
nt
Impleme
nt
Respons
es
Monitor
6. PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES
INPUTS - TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES - OUTPUTS
11.1 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT
INPUTS TOOLS & TECHNIQUES OUTPUTS
1. Project Charter 1. Expert Judgement 1. RISK MANAGEMENT
PLAN
2. Project Management
Plan
2. Data Analysis
3. Project Documents 3. Meetings
4. Enterprise
Environmental Factors
5. Organization Processes
Assets
8. PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES
INPUTS - TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES - OUTPUTS
11.3 PERFORM QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
INPUTS TOOLS & TECHNIQUES OUTPUTS
1. Project Management
Plan
1. Expert Judgement 1. Project Documents
Updates
2. Project Documents 2. Data Gathering
3. Enterprise
Environmental Factors
3. Data Analysis
4. Organization Process
Assets
4. Interpersonal and
Team Skills
5. Risk Categorization
6. Data Representation
7. Meetings
9. PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES
INPUTS - TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES - OUTPUTS
11.4 PERFORM QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
INPUTS TOOLS & TECHNIQUES OUTPUTS
1. Project Management
Plan
1. Expert Judgement 1. Project Documents
Updates
2. Project Documents 2. Data Gathering
3. Enterprise
Environmental Factors
3. Interpersonal and
Team Skills
4. Organization Process
Assets
4. Representation of
uncertainty
5. Data Analysis
10. PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES
INPUTS - TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES - OUTPUTS
11.5 PLAN RISK RESPONSES
INPUTS TOOLS & TECHNIQUES OUTPUTS
1. Project Management
Plan
1. Expert Judgement 1. CHANGE REQUESTS
2. Project Documents 2. Data Gathering 2. Project Management
Plan Updates.
3. Enterprise
Environmental Factors
3. Interpersonal and
Team Skills
3. Project Documents
Updates
4. Organization Process
Assets
4. Strategies for
threats
5. Strategies for
Opportunities
6. Contingent response
strategies.
7. Strategies for overall
project risks
11. PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES
INPUTS - TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES - OUTPUTS
11.6 IMPLEMENT RISK RESPONSES
INPUTS TOOLS & TECHNIQUES OUTPUTS
1. Project Management
Plan
1. Expert Judgement 1. CHANGE REQUESTS
2. Project Documents 2. Interpersonal and
Team Skills
2. Project Documents
Updates.
3. Organization Process
Assets
3. Project Management
Information Systems
12. PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES
INPUTS - TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES - OUTPUTS
11.7 MONITOR RISK
INPUTS TOOLS & TECHNIQUES OUTPUTS
1. Project Management
Plan
1. Data Analysis 1. Work Performance
Information
2. Project Documents 2. Audits 2. CHANGE REQUESTS
3. Work Performance Data 3. Meetings 3. Project Management
Plan Updates
4. Work Performance
Reports
4. Project Documents
Updates
5. Organizational
Process Assets updates.
13. KEY DOCUMENTS IN PROJECT RISK
MANAGEMENT• RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN TO ESTABLISH HOW ALL THE ACTIVITIES OF
IDENTIFICATION, ANALYSIS, RESPONSE AND CONTROL OF RISK WILL BE HANDLE.
RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN ALSO INCLUDES:
• RISK APPROACH,
• ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES,
• PROTOCOLS FOR USE CONTINGENCY FUNDS,
• TIMING OR HOW OFTEN THE RISK MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES WILL BE PERFORMED IN THE
PROJECT,
• RISK CATEGORIES BY THE SOURCE (TECHNICAL RISK, MANAGEMENT RISK, COMMERCIAL
RISK, AND EXTERNAL RISK),
• STAKEHOLDER RISK APPETITE,
• DEFINITION OF THE RISK PROBABILITY IN PERCENTAGE,
• IMPACT OF THE RISK EXPRESSED ON TIME, COST, AND QUALITY IMPACT,
• PROBABILITY AND IMPACT MATRIX
• REPORTING FORMATS AND,
• TRACKING
14. KEY DOCUMENTS IN PROJECT RISK
MANAGEMENT• IN THE GROUP OF PROJECT DOCUMENTS:
RISK REGISTER: CAPTURE DETAILS OF IDENTIFIED INDIVIDUAL PROJECT RISKS.
IN THE RISK REGISTER WE RECORD THE RESULTS OF:
• QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS,
• PLAN RISK RESPONSES,
• IMPLEMENT RISK RESPONSES, AND
• MONITOR RISKS.
THE RISK REGISTER MAY CONTAIN A LOT OF RISK INFORMATION, ALL DEPENDED OF THE SIZE AND
COMPLEXITY OF THE PROJECT.
THE RISK REGISTER MAY CONTAIN THE FOLLOWING:
• LIST OF IDENTIFIED RISKS
• POTENTIAL RISK OWNERS
• LIST OF POTENTIAL RISK RESPONSES
15. KEY DOCUMENTS IN PROJECT RISK
MANAGEMENT
RISK REPORT: REPRESENT INFORMATION ON SOURCE OF OVERALL PROJECT RISK,
TOGETHER WITH SUMMARY INFORMATION OF IDENTIFIED INDIVIDUAL PROJECT
RISKS.
THIS REPORT IS DEVELOPED PROGRESSIVELY THROUGHOUT OF THE PROJECT RISK
MANAGEMENT PROCESS.
IN THE RISK REPORT WE RECORD THE RESULTS OF:
• QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS,
• QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS,
• PLAN RISK RESPONSES,
• IMPLEMENT RISK RESPONSES, AND
• MONITOR RISKS
FOR ALL THE COMPLETE PROCESSES. RISK REPORT CAN INCLUDE SOURCE OF OVERALL
PROJECT RISK INDICATING THE TRIGGER FOR THOSE RISKS AND SUMMARY
INFORMATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL RISKS SUCH THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES,
DISTRIBUTION OF THE RISK, CATEGORIES OF RISKS, METRICS, TRENDS, ETC.
16. KEY DOCUMENTS IN PROJECT RISK
MANAGEMENT
OTHER IMPORTANT DOCUMENT IN PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT IS:
WORK PERFORMANCE INFORMATION : INCLUDE INFORMATION ON HOW PROJECT RISK
MANAGEMENT IS PERFORMING BY COMPARING THE INDIVIDUAL RISK THAT HAVE
OCCURRED WITH THE EXPECTATION OF HOW THEY WOULD OCCUR. THIS INFORMATION
INDICATES THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE RESPONSE PLANNING AND RESPONSE
IMPLEMENTATION PROCESSES.
17. RISK CALCULATIONS
• DATA ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE
SIMULATION: THIS TECHNIQUE USE A SIMULATION MODEL THAT COMBINED EFFECTS
OF INDIVIDUAL PROJECT RISKS AND OTHER SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY TO EVALUATE
THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT ON ACHIEVING PROJECT OBJECTIVES.
SIMULATION TECHNIQUE ARE TYPICALLY PERFORMING USING A MONTE CARLO
ANALYSIS,
WHEN USE MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS FOR COST RISK THE SIMULATION USES THE
PROJECT COST ESTIMATES.
WHEN RUNNING A MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS FOR SCHEDULE RISK THE SCHEDULE
NETWORK DIAGRAM AND DURATION ESTIMATES ARE USED.
AN INTEGRATED QUANTITATIVE COST-SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS USES BOTH INPUTS.
THE OUTPUT IS A QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS MODEL.
18. RISK CALCULATIONS
• ASSESSING OVERALL PROJECT RISK—QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
THE DEFINITIONS OF OVERALL PROJECT RISK AS “THE EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTY ON
THE PROJECT AS A WHOLE, ARISING FROM ALL SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY INCLUDING
INDIVIDUAL RISKS, REPRESENTING THE EXPOSURE OF STAKEHOLDERS TO THE
IMPLICATIONS OF VARIATIONS IN PROJECT OUTCOMES, BOTH POSITIVE AND
NEGATIVE”.
RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT THE RISKINESS OF THE WHOLE PROJECT THAT HAVE
QUANTITATIVE ANSWERS. FOR EXAMPLE:
• HOW LIKELY IS THIS PROJECT TO SUCCEED (OR FAIL)?, AND WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL
RANGE OF VARIATION IN OUTCOME?
• ANSWERING THESE QUESTIONS REQUIRES USE OF QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
METHODS TO MODEL THE EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE PROJECT AS A WHOLE
AND TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF VARIATION IN OUTCOME
(VOSE, 2008).
• THE STANDARD MONTE CARLO SIMULATION APPROACH IS IDEAL FOR THIS TYPE OF
ANALYSIS, SINCE THE MAIN OUTPUT PRESENTS THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES
AGAINST THE PROBABILITY OF EACH VALUE BEING ACHIEVED.
19. RISK CALCULATIONS
• THIS IS USUALLY SHOWN AS A CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DENSITY PLOT, OR S-
CURVE, AND AN EXAMPLE OF COST RISK ANALYSIS IS SHOWN IN THE EXHIBIT 3
20. RISK CALCULATIONS
• WE CAN ANSWER THE TWO KEY QUANTITATIVE QUESTIONS DIRECTLY USING THE
RESULTS IN THE S-CURVE.
• ADDRESSING THE FIRST QUESTION (HOW LIKELY IS THIS PROJECT TO SUCCEED
(OR FAIL)?),
• THE S-CURVE IN EXHIBIT 3 SHOWS THAT THE PROBABILITY OF MEETING THE PROJECT
COST TARGET OF US$2.2M IS 23%, WITH A 77% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THE BUDGET.
(DASH CIRCLE IN PINK)
• THE ANALYSIS PREDICTS AN EXPECTED OUTCOME OF US$2.35M, WHICH IS AN
OVERSPEND OF US$0.15M OR 7%.
• THE PROJECT SPONSOR CAN DETERMINE VALUES OF TOTAL PROJECT COST THAT
CORRESPOND TO CHOSEN CONFIDENCE LEVELS; FOR EXAMPLE, THERE WOULD BE AN
85% CHANCE OF MEETING A REVISED BUDGET OF US$2.45M. THIS ALLOWS THE
PROJECT SPONSOR TO MAKE RISK-INFORMED DECISIONS TRADING OFF INCREASED
COST (+ US$0.25M) AGAINST INCREASED PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS (FROM 23% TO
85%). (BLUE CIRCLE)
21. RISK CALCULATIONS
• USING A DECISION TREE
FOR EXAMPLE:
AS PROJECT MANAGER YOU NEED DECIDE WHEATEAR TO CREATE A NEW WEB IN-
HOUSE OR CONTRACT A DEVELOPER. IF YOU CREATE THE WEB THE COST IS U$
165,000 AND A CERTAIN TO COMPLETE ON TIME OF 75%. IF YOU CONTRACT A
DEVELOPER THE COST IS U$ 175,000 WITH THE CERTAIN TO FINISH ON TIME OF
85%.
THE TREE DECISION GRAPHIC WILL BE:
23. RISK CALCULATIONS
• USING A DECISION TREE
EXPECTED MONETARY VALUE (EMV) IS A STATISTICAL TECHNIQUE IN RISK MANAGEMENT THAT IS USED
TO QUANTIFY THE RISKS, WHICH IN TURN, ASSISTS THE PROJECT MANAGER TO CALCULATE THE
CONTINGENCY RESERVE. ... IT HELPS IN SELECTING THE CHOICE WHICH INVOLVES LESS MONEY TO
MANAGE THE RISKS.
TO CALCULATE EMV, MULTIPLY THE DOLLAR VALUE OF EACH POSSIBLE OUTCOME BY EACH OUTCOME'S
CHANCE OF OCCURRING (PERCENTAGE), AND TOTAL THE RESULTS.
CALCULATING THE EXPECTED MONETARY VALUE OF EACH POSSIBLE DECISION PATH IS A WAY TO
QUANTIFY EACH DECISION IN MONETARY TERMS. CALCULATING EXPECTED MONETARY VALUE BY
USING DECISION TREES IS A RECOMMENDED TOOL AND TECHNIQUE FOR QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS.
28. HOW AND WHEN ADJUST RISK BASED ON THE PROJECT
ENVIRONMENT
PROJECTS THAT ARE DEVELOPED ON HIGH VARIABLE ENVIRONMENTS INCUR
MORE IN UNCERTAINTY AND RISK. TO ADDRESS THIS, PROJECT MANAGER
USING ADAPTIVE APPROACHES BY MAKE FREQUENT REVIEWS OF
INCREMENTAL WORK PRODUCTS AND CROSS FUNCTIONAL PROJECT TEAMS
TO ACCELERATE KNOWLEDGE SHARING AND ENSURE THAT RISK IS
UNDERSTOOD AND MANAGED.
RISK IS CONSIDERED WHEN SELECTING THE CONTENT OF EACH ITERATION,
AND RISK WILL ALSO IDENTIFY, ANALYZE AND MANAGED DURING EACH
ITERATION.
ADDITIONALLY, THE REQUIREMENTS ARE KEPT AS A LIVING DOCUMENT
THAT IS UPDATED REGULARLY, AND WORK MAY BE REPRIORITIZED AS THE
PROJECT PROGRESSES, BASED ON A PROVE UNDERSTANDING OF CURRENT
RISK EXPOSURE.
WHEN ADJUST RISK? ONCE IS IDENTIFY AT EACH ITERATION SHOULD BE
ANALYZED AND MANAGED.
HOW ADJUST RISK? USING AN ADAPTIVE APPROACH, PERFORMING FREQUENT
REVIEWS DURING THE PROJECT LIFE CYCLE AND CROSS FUNCTIONAL OF THE
ENTERPRISE, SHARING KNOWLEDGE, ENSURING EVERYONE UNDERSTAND THE
29. SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 11 PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT INCLUDES PROCESSES OF CONDUCTING RISK
MANAGEMENT PLANNING, IDENTIFICATION, ANALYSIS, RESPONSES PLANNING,
RESPONSE IMPLEMENTATION, AND MONITORING RISK ON A PROJECT. THE
OBJECTIVE OF THE PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT ARE TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY AND/OR IMPACT OF POSITIVE RISKS AND DECREASE THE
PROBABILITY AND/OR IMPACT OF NEGATIVE RISKS, IN ORDER TO OPTIMIZE THE
CHANCES OF PROJECT SUCCESS.
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES ARE:
PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT
IDENTIFY RISK
PERFORM QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
PERFORM QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
PLAN RISK RESPONSES
IMPLEMENT RISK RESPONSES
MONITOR RISK
30. SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 11 PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
INPUTS FOR PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
PROJECT MANAGEMENT PLAN AND PROJECT DOCUMENTS ARE INPUTS FOR THE 7
PROCESSES AS WELL THE EEF AND OPA, EXCEPT FOR MONITORING RISK.
PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT HAS ADDITIONALLY THE PROJECT CHARTER AS INPUT.
IDENTIFY RISK HAS AGREEMENTS, PROCUREMENTS DOCUMENTS, IN ADDITION OF PROJECT
MANAGEMENT PLAN AND PROJECT DOCUMENTS.
CONTROL RISK HAS AS INPUTS IN ADDITION OF THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT PLAN, THE
WORK PERFORMANCE DATA AND WORK PERFORMANCE REPORT.
TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES FOR PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
EXPERT JUDGEMENT IS APPLICABLE FOR THE 7 PROCESSES
DATA ANALYSIS IS USED IN MOST PROCESSES EXCEPT FOR THE PROCESS OF IMPLEMENT
RISK RESPONSES.
INTERPERSONAL AND TEAM SKILLS IS USED ON MOST PROCESSES EXCEPT PLAN RISK
MANAGEMENT AND MONITOR RISK.
OTHER TECHNIQUES AS MEETINGS, STRATEGIES ARE APPLICABLE IN ACCORDANCE OF THE
PROCESS.
32. SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 11 PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
KEY DOCUMENTS FOR PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT ARE:
RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN BECAUSE DETAIL HOW RISK MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES WILL BE
STRUCTURED AND PERFORMED.
RISK REGISTER BECAUSE CAPTURE DETAILS OF IDENTIFIED INDIVIDUAL PROJECT RISKS.
ALSO CONTAIN THE RESULTS OF PERFORM QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS, PLAN RISK
RESPONSES, IMPLEMENT RISK RESPONSES AND MONITOR RISK.
RISK REPORT BECAUSE PRESENT BOTH RISK, THE SOURCE OF OVERALL RISKS, AND THE
INDIVIDUAL RISK, AND RESULTS OF ALL THE PROCESSES RISK MANAGEMENT INCLUDING
THE QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS.
34. SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 11 PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
RISK CALCULATIONS (EXPECTED MONETARIO VALUE)
WHAT IF :
EAR
N
EAR
N
LOOSE
LOOSE
LOOSE
35. SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 11 PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
RISK CALCULATIONS (EXPECTED MONETARIO VALUE)
EAR
N
EAR
N
LOOSE
LOOSE
36. SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 11 PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
RISK CALCULATIONS (EXPECTED MONETARIO VALUE)
EAR
N
EAR
N
LOOSE
LOOSE
37. SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 11 PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
RISK CALCULATIONS (EXPECTED MONETARIO VALUE)
EAR
N
EAR
N
LOOSE
LOOSE
38. SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 11 PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
RISK CALCULATIONS (EXPECTED MONETARIO VALUE)
EAR
N
EAR
N
LOOSE
LOOSE
39. SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 11 PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
RISK CALCULATIONS (EXPECTED MONETARIO VALUE)
EAR
N
EAR
N
LOOSE
LOOSE
40. SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 11 PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
WHEN AND HOW TO ADJUST RISK
WHEN ADJUST RISK? ONCE IS IDENTIFY AT EACH ITERATION SHOULD
BE ANALYZED AND MANAGED.
HOW ADJUST RISK? USING AN ADAPTIVE APPROACH, PERFORMING
FREQUENT REVIEWS DURING THE PROJECT LIFE CYCLE AND CROSS
FUNCTIONAL OF THE ENTERPRISE, SHARING KNOWLEDGE, ENSURING
EVERYONE UNDERSTAND THE RISK.
GOOD LUCK