Romanian Early Warning System part of Seismic Hazard Mitigation Mechanisms

1. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 ROMANIAN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM( EWS ) PART OF SEISMIC HAZARD / RISK MITIGATION MECHANISMS by Gh. MARMUREANU, A. MARMUREANU, C. IONESCU Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010

2. March 4, 1977 earthquake M W =7.2 : 1286 dead persons and a lot of damages; 61 gas pipes failed and exploded; 382 burnt people in Bucharest; 10,000 people crippled etc.; 46 buildings demolished; 36,000 damaged…etc. What can be done ?

3. March 4,1977 earthquake M=7.2 - 61 gas pipes failed - 382 burnt people in Bucharest - damages and 1286 dead persons… What can be done in the future?

4. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010 The Vrancea seismogenic zone in Romania denotes a peculiar source of seismic hazard, which represents a major concern in Europe, especially to neighboring regions from Bulgaria, Serbia, Republic of Modova etc. The strong seismic events originating from Vrancea area can generate the most destructive effects experienced in Romania, and may seriously affect high risk man-made structures such as nuclear power plants (Cernavoda, Koslo-duj etc.), chemical plants, large dams, and pipelines located within a wide area from Central Europe to Moscow to Rome. In plan view, the earthquakes are localized to a restricted area in the bending zone between the Eastern and Southern Carpathians at least three units in contact: the East European plate, Intra-Alpine and Moessian sub-plates.

5. ICTP Advanced Conference on Seismic Risk Mitigation and Sustainable Development Trieste-Italy. May 10-14,2010 Romania-South East view

6. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010

7. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010

8. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010 Earthquakes at depths h =150km,29 seconds the warning time for Bucharest

9. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010 A method to rapidly estimate magnitude in 4-5 seconds from detection of P wave in the epicentre was obtained . An early warning system consists of several different parts: a dedi-cated acquisition system, algorithms to rapidly detect seismic events, algorithms that eliminate false detections and alarms and methods to esti-mate the earthquake magnitude and to send the warning to the users. All of these parts have to work automatically, in real time, without interruption for a long period of time. This can be used to approximate very well earthquake magnitude in the first seconds after detection . The average absolute error is low of 0.171 magnitude degrees using all existing recorded data . The software developed by NIEP was tested at last Vrancea earth-quake on April 25, 2009 when the magnitude (Mw =5.7) of the earthquake was computed in first 4 seconds and it was an accurate value. The system is working and are made connections between NIEP and users…

10. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010 Early Warning System for strong and deep Vrancea earthquakes (EWS)

11. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010 Absolute error in magnitude estimation ( |M computed – M ROMPLUS | ) for all recorded events at the three stations from epicentre

12. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010 INTEGRATION OF EARLY WARNING SYSTEM, ALERT, SHAKE AND DISASTER MAPS IN SEISMIC RISK MITIGATION MECHANISMS Early Warning System is viewed as part of an real-time information system that provide rapid information, about an earthquake impeding hazard, to the public and disaster relief organizations before (early warning) and after a strong earthquake (shake map )

13. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010 Bucharest strong motion stations for shake map (42 units)

14. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010 The epicenter and the place for alert map

15. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010 Alert Map for Bucharest for last Vrancea earthquake on Oct. 27, 2004 ; M W =6.0 ; h=102 km.

16. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010 The place of EWS, alert, shake and disaster maps in seismic risk mitigation

17. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010 Developing of a near real-time shake map for Bucharest urban area is of highest interest, providing valuable information to the civil defence, decision makers and general public on the area where the ground motion is most severe. EWS made by NIEP can be considered the first stage to generate and develop the shake map for Bucharest to deep Vrancea earthquakes. Maps of shaking intensity is combined in a World Bank Project developed in Romania with databases of inventories of buildings and lifelines to rapidly produce shake map and maps of estimated damages. The damage computation model is designed to allow import of shake maps developed by National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP)

18. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010 Disaster map as last part of this chain developed in Romania gives the possibility to Romanian authorities to miti-gate and to reduce disaster effects given by strong Vrancea earthquakes and to make a bridge between science, risk governance, technology perspectives, problem solving and capacity building in this part of Europe . There is an integration of : 1- early warning system; 2 – alert; 3- shake ; and 4- disaster maps in disaster reduction and risk management

19. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010 Within “ EU Programme for Cross-Border Cooperation ”, the following applications are using early warning system ( EWS ) developed by National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP): (a)- Danube Cross-Border System for Earthquake Alert (DACEA ) -Romania , Bulgaria; b)- Black Sea earthquake Safety Net (work)-ESNET -Romania , Turkey, Rep. Moldova, Ukraine; c)- Cross-Border System for Earthquakes Alert (SEAL) - Romania, Rep. Moldova and Ukraine.

20. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010 EWS for crust / surface earthquakes !!!

21. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010 The effects of Loma Prieta, 1989 earthquake (M w =6.9 ) are far of epicenter at 97 km and EWS could be used …

22. The effects of Loma Prieta, 1989 earthquake (M w =6.9

30. The 3-rd International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2010 Davos ,Switzerland. May 30 - June 3,2010 Thank you for your attention !