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Birkmann scenarios-davo snew

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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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Birkmann scenarios-davo snew

  1. 1. 1 GRF Davos 28th August 2014 Scenarios for Vulnerability and Risk - Challenges and Applicability PD Dr. Joern Birkmann Head of Section / UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany birkmann@ehs.unu.edu
  2. 2. 2 Introduction – Scenarios in CCA and DRR • Scenarios have an analytic and a normative function. • Scenario are important tools to think in pluralistic futures. • Scenarios have been used already since decades, however, their application was often - particularly in sustainability science - limited to resource scenarios (Limits of growth). • Scenarios can range from quantitative to qualitative – from global to local.
  3. 3. A changing climate leads to changes in extreme weather and climate events 3 Source: IPCC 2012
  4. 4. Source: IPCC 2012 Socio-economic DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS 4 Risk and the Role of Socio-Economic Developments 4 4
  5. 5. 5 SRES
  6. 6. 6 Scenarios for Adaptation Policies
  7. 7. 7 Components of the WorldRiskIndex  WorldRiskIndex consists of 28 indicators  15 out of 28 indicators are up-dated for the 2013 report
  8. 8. 8 Exposure to Natural Hazards 2013 (earthquakes, storms, floods, droughts and sea level rise) 8
  9. 9. 9 Vulnerability to Natural Hazards 2013 9
  10. 10. 10 Risk to Natural Hazards 2013 10
  11. 11. 11 Scenarios for Vulnerability Source: Birkmann, J.; Cutter, S.; Rothman, D.; Welle, T.; Garschagen, M.; van Ruijven, B.; O’Neill, B.; Preston, B.; Kienberger , S.; Cardona, O.; Siagian, T.; Hidayati, D.; Setiadi, N.; Binder, C.; Hughes, B.; Pulwarty, R. (2013) Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk. Climatic Change (DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0913-2)
  12. 12. 12 • Need for vulnerability scenarios • Differences are e.g. expected in China • Linking: vulnerability research (IAV) with the Integrated Modeling community (IAM) • Important player in a global think tank network – scenarios for adaptation policies • Informs the IPCC AR5
  13. 13. 13 Foto – Wasserstrassen Vietnam 13 From Global to Local Scenarios
  14. 14. 14 Participative Scenario Development Source: Birkmann, Garschagen; Schwab 2011
  15. 15. 15 Source: Garschagen 2011, Source: Birkmann et al. 2012 Schwab 2011 Conclusions • Development Pathways and scenarios are important tools to discuss future developments in risk and vulnerability • Beside the development and use of scenarios for mitigation policies, the IPCC is increasingly using scenarios also for adaptation policies • Scenarios are a key tool to move risk and vulnerability assessment from the analysis of past/present trends towards future trends. • Scenario development at the local level can complement sub-national and national scenario development.
  16. 16. 16 Thank you! Contact: UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10 53113 Bonn, Germany Phone: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0208 Fax: ++ 49 (0) 228 815-0299 E-Mail: birkmann@ehs.unu.edu www.ehs.unu.edu

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