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2014 cop20-ccxg-adaptation-side-event-m. mullan and j. corfee-morlot


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COP 20 CCXG-Adaptation side event

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2014 cop20-ccxg-adaptation-side-event-m. mullan and j. corfee-morlot

  1. 1. ROLE OF 2015 AGREEMENT FOR ADAPTATION Michael MULLAN – Environment Directorate Jan CORFEE-MORLOT – Development Co-operation Directorate
  2. 2. Source: Based on Mullan et al (2013) – National Adaptation Planning: Lessons from OECD Countries 2 Progress in adaptation planning from 2006 to 2013 in OECD countries
  3. 3. Source: OECD country survey – preliminary results; mutliple choice; 13 respondents 3 Focus on measures that deliver co-benefits in OECD countries
  4. 4. Source: Mullan et al (2013) – National Adaptation Planning: Lessons from OECD Countries 4 Mainstreamed financing of domestic adaptation amongst OECD countries • Understanding of resource needs increasing, but patchy • No systematic collection of data on finance requirements, current spending or extreme events
  5. 5. 1. Common vision: political will and development of institutional structures; 2. Evolutionary approach: focus on current problems, with initial thinking about longer-term vulnerabilities; 3. Evidence to guide “transformational” changes is very limited; 4. Finance and capacity constraints remain major barriers. 5 Emerging findings in national planning for Non-Annex 1 countries
  6. 6. 1) Conditions for adaptation should be viewed as an “ecosystem” Political commitment • Resonance with political imperatives and constraints • Engagement of external actors Institutions and processes • Identification of key interdependencies • Data presentation aligned to responsibilities • Stakeholder input as a means of raising awareness and building capacity Tools and data • Making tools easier to use • Providing rich underlying data for more sophisticated analyses Resources • Making the case for funding adaptation measures • Identifying the scale of contingent liabilities / residual risks Source: OECD (2015, forthcoming) – developed from Persson and Klein (2009) 6
  7. 7. 2) Importance of pragmatism in measuring success Climate risk and vulnerability assessments Indicators for monitoring prioritised climate change risks and vulnerabilities Learning from adaptation approaches National audits and climate expenditure reviews 7 1 2 3 4 • New OECD working papers: • Methodological challenges • National approaches • Based on analysis of the systems used in Germany, UK, Mozambique and Nepal
  8. 8. 8 1. Climate and development – two-way relationship: an example from South East Asia 2. Evolution of climate change adaptation at the international level & implications for action in developing countries 3. Official Development Assistance to Climate Change Adaptation 4. DAC-EPOC Task Team on Climate Change and Development Co-operation PART TWO – Adaptation, Development and Development Co-operation
  9. 9. Climate change threatens growth and development: impacts to vary by region-- a Southeast Asia example • Costly impacts, e.g. in the agricultural sector (figure). Coastal flooding costly for growing cities, even with significant investment in adaptation • Air pollution problems threaten health and well-being • Need to integrate climate, adaptation and disaster risk reduction into land use and infrastructure planning, align and strengthen local-national responses 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Climate change could have a large impact on GDP in Southeast Asia in 2060 OECD America Percent change in GDP compared to baseline (OECD, 2014) OECD Europe OECD Pacific Rest of Europe and Asia Latin America Middle East & North Africa South & South- East Asia Sub- Saharan Africa World Fisheries Energy Ecosystems Health Tourism Sea level rise Agriculture GDP
  10. 10. Evolution of adaptation at the international level: implications for development policy Slow integration of climate change adaptation into development planning and policy in developing countries Mainstreaming in development co-operation practice is mainly driven by UNFCC-related processes: • First through National Adaptation Programmes of Action NAPAs (2001) for LDCs (by 2013 all LDCs had a NAPA); • Most recently (as of 2010) through National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) in all developing countries. Development co-operation and development finance for adaptation is increasing: • GEF (Trust Fund, LDCF, SCCF) and soon the GCF (50:50 adaptation/mitigation allocation of finance over time) • CIFs (e.g. the Strategic Climate Fund provides resources to the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR)) • Bilateral financial support
  11. 11. Official Development Finance to Climate Change Adaptation 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Source: OECD DAC Statistics, December 2014 • Total bilateral and multilateral adaptation-related finance reached over USD 14 bn in 2013. • Total bilateral adaptation-related aid by DAC members reached USD 10.8 bn p.a. over 2012-13, or 7% of bilateral commitments, about 45% of climate-related ODA • For bilateral aid, 70% targets adaptation as a significant objective, reflecting mainstreaming within on-going development activities Total adaptation-related finance 2010-13, bilateral and multilateral commitments, USD billion, constant 2012 prices, annual and 2-year annual average 6% 7% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0 2010-11 2012-13 2013 (total) Share of total ODA commitments USD billion Principal Significant % of total ODA commitments Bilateral Multilateral
  12. 12. Adaptation-related bilateral aid is concentrated in a few sectors and activity types… Adaptation-related ODA by sector 2010-13, bilateral commitments, USD billion, constant 2012 prices 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Source: OECD DAC Statistics, December 2014 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5%  The top 5 sectors receive 86% of adaptation-related development finance.  In 2013, multilaterals focused on General Environment Protection (17%); agriculture, forestry and fishing (17%); and disaster risk reduction (10%)  General Environmental Protection reflects focus on adaptation planning and policy formulation, research and education, and capacity-building 0% 0 Water Supply and Sanitation Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Rural Development General Environmental Protection Multisector Transport and Storage Disaster Risk Reduction and Response Share of total ODA commitments USD billion Principal Significant % of total ODA commitments
  13. 13. DAC-EPOC Task Team on Climate Change 13 and Development Co-operation Since 2006, supports adaptation and development policy dialogue : • Sharing experience from policy practice; • Promoting better adaptation in partner countries (e.g., alignment, data collection, monitoring and evaluation); • Identifying, agreeing and communicating ways to improve development co-operation for adaptation; • Producing guidance (e.g., Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation, OECD 2009). Recent work: • Harmonising Climate Risk Management: Risk Screening & Assessment Tools for Development – working paper • Monitoring and Evaluation for Adaptation: Methodological and Country Challenges – 2 new working papers Future (2015-16) work to focus on national-local adaptation planning and policy linkages, in the context of NAPs: • Mechanisms to reduce, transfer and share climate risks; • Climate-resilient urban development in developing countries. Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation (2009)
  14. 14. THANK YOU! OECD ENV – Adaptation to Climate Change OECD DCD Climate Change and Development OECD DAC-CRS - Methods and data on climate change financing
  17. 17. What evidence influenced the prioritisation of adaptation strategies? Includes multiple responses 2 4 7 3 13 Stakeholder engagement/consultation Expert judgement Uncertainty based approaches Multi-criteria analysis Cost-effectiveness analysis • Expert judgement and involvement of stakeholders are the most widely used techniques for prioritisation • Limited uptake of cost-benefit / cost-effectiveness tools 13 Cost-benefit analysis Source: OECD country survey – preliminary results; multiple choice; 13 respondents had undertaken 17 some form of prioritisation
  18. 18. Source: OECD country survey – preliminary results; mutliple choice; 13 respondents 18 Criteria used for prioritisation
  19. 19. Priority areas for improving data Source: survey of OECD countries 19 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 For which sectors is it a priority to improve the evidence base? (multiple choice)
  20. 20. • Setting of baselines should be transparent – e.g., treatment of autonomous adaptation • Greater emphasis on the social aspects of adaptation • Identification of poorly-understood, but potentially significant risks – flexibility in the choice of methods for analysis Source: Mullan et al (2013) – National Adaptation Planning: Lessons from OECD Countries 20 Lessons learned from quantitative studies to date