CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.

1. 1
Threat Update: February 6, 2018
Iran Competing Iranian political factions seek to leverage the post-protest
political environment in order to advance their respective political
agendas. The recent protests excluded many of Iran’s more prominent
political identities and instead featured anti-regime sentiments
prominently. Reformist, secularist, and anti-establishment hardliner
factions have called renewed attention to their political platforms by
requesting protest permits from the Rouhani administration. Pro-
establishment hardliners are also pressuring the Rouhani
administration to address the people’s economic grievances.
Saudi and Emirati efforts to resolve a split between the internationally
recognized Hadi government and southern secessionists have not yet
succeeded, though fighting in Aden has subsided. Southerners will
likely continue to reject the legitimacy of the internationally
recognized Yemeni government if they fail to secure significant
representation within the Hadi government.
Yemen

2. 2
Threat Update: February 6, 2018
Algeria
Algerian security forces killed the leader of AQIM’s media wing, continuing
the attrition of senior AQIM leadership in the Maghreb. AQIM’s decline in
the Maghreb will not disrupt the group’s affiliates in the Sahel, which
are increasing their lethality and area of operations.
President Uhuru Kenyatta’s party cracked down on political opposition
in order to counteract opposition leader Raila Odinga’s symbolic
inauguration. The political dispute is dividing Kenya and could lead to
more violence. The crisis risks drawing resources away from the fight
against al Shabaab and worsening political and ethnic polarization
that drives radicalization in Kenya.
Kenya

3. Yemen
3Randy Morton
Saudi-led coalition attempts to resolve
southern secessionist crisis
01 FEB: The internationally recognized
government stated that the actions of
southern secessionists violate UN
Security Council Resolution 2216.
1
01 FEB: Saudi and Emirati officials
arrived in Aden to attempt to mediate
a resolution to the secessionist crisis.
2
03 FEB: Southern leader Aydarus
al Zubaidi traveled to the UAE
and will travel to Saudi Arabia.
3

4. Horn of
Africa
4Peter Cialone
Ruling party crackdown protracts political
crisis
31 JAN: Kenya’s Interior Ministry
declared Odinga’s National
Resistance Movement (NRM) an
organized criminal group.
05 FEB: The Kenyan
government reinstated
media broadcasts for
two stations amid
international pressure.
06 FEB: A Kenyan court
charged opposition lawyer
Miguna Miguna with treason.
2
3 4
30 JAN: Supporters of
opposition leader Raila Odinga
swore him in as the “people’s
president.” The Kenyatta
administration cracked down
on media broadcasts.
1
Neutral event
Event favoring opposition
Event favoring Kenyatta
Legend

5. Maghreb
5
Security forces eliminate senior AQIM
leadership in the Maghreb
Bryan Gilday
30 JAN: The Algerian army
killed Adel Saghiri, the founder
of AQIM’s al Andalus Media
Foundation, during an ambush
in northeastern Algeria.
03 FEB: AQIM released a eulogy and
biography that recounted Saghiri’s
ascent to the head of the group’s al
Andalus Media Foundation.
01 FEB: The al Qaeda-linked
Global Islamic Media Front (GIMF)
released eulogized Saghiri,
highlighting his importance to the
organization’s media activities.
1
2 3

6. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
6

7. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Manager
7
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Iran Analysts
Marie Donovan
Mike Saidi
Digital Content
Associate
Katie Donnelly