What we need - mythic solution sequester carbon, reduce soil loss, stop slash and burn, reduce emissions - food security, stop pollution etc.
How are we going to estimate the effects of climate change on agriculture unless we’re going to wait for it to happen? Past changes are not really a good estimator. The little ice age starting in 1450 or thereabouts was a major event, completely changing the life styles and agriculture in Europe. It is piddling compared with what we are likely to see in the next 20 to 50 years. We must therefore rely on modeling situations that we have never before seen.
Andy J Climate Change And Cassava In Latin America July 2009
Climate change and cassava in Latin America Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Emmanuel Zapata
Contents <ul><li>About climate change and predictive models </li></ul><ul><li>Expected changes for Latin America </li></ul><ul><li>Some implications for cassava </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges ahead </li></ul>
Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008
In order to prepare, we need to know what to prepare for…. <ul><li>… .but how? </li></ul>
Global Climate Models (GCMs) <ul><li>21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a touch of astrology </li></ul><ul><li>Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into the future </li></ul><ul><li>Run using different emissions scenarios </li></ul>
The Model: EcoCrop <ul><li>So, how does it work? </li></ul>It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation… … and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…
Worldwide cassava production climatic constraints <ul><li>Grey areas are the crop’s main niche. </li></ul>Blue areas constrained by precipitation Yellow-orange constrained by temperature
Impact of climate change on cassava suitable environments Global cassava suitability will increase 5.1% on average by 2050… but many areas of Latin America suffer negative impacts
What are the expected global benefits? Increase of 5-10% in potential land area for cassava when implementing either drought or flood tolerance 21.9 million hectares (16.9% of global cassava fields) under cultivation would benefit 63.3 million hectares of new land would become suitable for cassava
…… .and for Latin America? Drought or flooding tolerance 30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought or flooding tolerance 1.6m Ha still suffering climatic constraint 2.23m Ha of current production 2.1m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
…… .and for Latin America? Heat or cold tolerance 27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat tolerance 2.23m Ha of current production 2.2m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
Evaluating Technology Options: Crop Improvement for Cassava Grey areas would get no benefit from drought or flood tolerance. Blue areas benefit from drought tolerance improvement Purple areas benefit from flood tolerance improvement
Challenges ahead <ul><li>Further analysis: improvement of the parameters, greater uncertainty in GCMs </li></ul><ul><li>Inclusion of post-harvest impacts – drying for example </li></ul><ul><li>Further work in pest and disease impacts </li></ul><ul><li>… .but too late to wait for 100% certainty </li></ul><ul><li>Crop improvement and targeted varietal selection can support adaptation </li></ul><ul><li>CLAYUCA network is critical to enabling adaptation </li></ul>