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Andy J Climate Change And Cassava In Latin America July 2009


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Presentation made at the 10th Anniversary celebrations of CLAYUCA on 21st July 2009, on the impacts of climate change on cassava production in Latin America.

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Andy J Climate Change And Cassava In Latin America July 2009

  1. 1. Climate change and cassava in Latin America Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Emmanuel Zapata
  2. 2. Contents <ul><li>About climate change and predictive models </li></ul><ul><li>Expected changes for Latin America </li></ul><ul><li>Some implications for cassava </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges ahead </li></ul>
  3. 5. Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008
  4. 6. How can we be sure that it is changing?
  5. 9. Arctic Ice is Melting
  6. 10. In order to prepare, we need to know what to prepare for…. <ul><li>… .but how? </li></ul>
  7. 11. Global Climate Models (GCMs) <ul><li>21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a touch of astrology </li></ul><ul><li>Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into the future </li></ul><ul><li>Run using different emissions scenarios </li></ul>
  8. 14. So, what do they say?
  9. 15. Temperatures rise….
  10. 16. Changes in rainfall…
  11. 17. Trajectories and risks
  12. 18. CIAT’s Data <ul><li>18 GCM models to 2050, 9 to 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Different scenarios, A1b, B1, commit </li></ul><ul><li>Downscaled using empirical methods </li></ul>
  13. 19. Britanicos Canadienses
  14. 21. Colombia compared to the world Colombia Mundo +4.5ºC +14% +3.1ºC +8.1%
  15. 27. Changes in Cassava production areas in Latin America
  16. 28. Impacts on production of cassava
  17. 29. The Model: EcoCrop <ul><li>So, how does it work? </li></ul>It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation… … and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…
  18. 30. Worldwide cassava production climatic constraints <ul><li>Grey areas are the crop’s main niche. </li></ul>Blue areas constrained by precipitation Yellow-orange constrained by temperature
  19. 31. Impact of climate change on cassava suitable environments Global cassava suitability will increase 5.1% on average by 2050… but many areas of Latin America suffer negative impacts
  20. 32. What are the expected global benefits? Increase of 5-10% in potential land area for cassava when implementing either drought or flood tolerance 21.9 million hectares (16.9% of global cassava fields) under cultivation would benefit 63.3 million hectares of new land would become suitable for cassava
  21. 33. …… .and for Latin America? Drought or flooding tolerance 30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought or flooding tolerance 1.6m Ha still suffering climatic constraint 2.23m Ha of current production 2.1m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
  22. 34. …… .and for Latin America? Heat or cold tolerance 27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat tolerance 2.23m Ha of current production 2.2m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
  23. 35. Evaluating Technology Options: Crop Improvement for Cassava Grey areas would get no benefit from drought or flood tolerance. Blue areas benefit from drought tolerance improvement Purple areas benefit from flood tolerance improvement
  24. 36. Pest and Disease Impacts
  25. 37. Impacts on green mite to 2020
  26. 38. Impacts on whitefly to 2020
  27. 39. Challenges ahead <ul><li>Further analysis: improvement of the parameters, greater uncertainty in GCMs </li></ul><ul><li>Inclusion of post-harvest impacts – drying for example </li></ul><ul><li>Further work in pest and disease impacts </li></ul><ul><li>… .but too late to wait for 100% certainty </li></ul><ul><li>Crop improvement and targeted varietal selection can support adaptation </li></ul><ul><li>CLAYUCA network is critical to enabling adaptation </li></ul>
  28. 40. GRACIAS!!!! [email_address]