Climate change and cassava in Latin America Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Emmanuel Zapata

Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008

How can we be sure that it is changing?

Arctic Ice is Melting

So, what do they say?

Temperatures rise….

Changes in rainfall…

Trajectories and risks

Britanicos Canadienses

Colombia compared to the world Colombia Mundo +4.5ºC +14% +3.1ºC +8.1%

Changes in Cassava production areas in Latin America

Impacts on production of cassava

Impact of climate change on cassava suitable environments Global cassava suitability will increase 5.1% on average by 2050… but many areas of Latin America suffer negative impacts

What are the expected global benefits? Increase of 5-10% in potential land area for cassava when implementing either drought or flood tolerance 21.9 million hectares (16.9% of global cassava fields) under cultivation would benefit 63.3 million hectares of new land would become suitable for cassava

…… .and for Latin America? Drought or flooding tolerance 30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought or flooding tolerance 1.6m Ha still suffering climatic constraint 2.23m Ha of current production 2.1m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava

…… .and for Latin America? Heat or cold tolerance 27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat tolerance 2.23m Ha of current production 2.2m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava

Evaluating Technology Options: Crop Improvement for Cassava Grey areas would get no benefit from drought or flood tolerance. Blue areas benefit from drought tolerance improvement Purple areas benefit from flood tolerance improvement

Pest and Disease Impacts

Impacts on green mite to 2020

Impacts on whitefly to 2020

GRACIAS!!!! [email_address]