Presentation made by Andy Jarvis from the Decision and Policy Analysis Program of the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). Delivered at Supagro in Montpellier, France in November 2009.
What we need - mythic solution sequester carbon, reduce soil loss, stop slash and burn, reduce emissions - food security, stop pollution etc.
How are we going to estimate the effects of climate change on agriculture unless we’re going to wait for it to happen? Past changes are not really a good estimator. The little ice age starting in 1450 or thereabouts was a major event, completely changing the life styles and agriculture in Europe. It is piddling compared with what we are likely to see in the next 20 to 50 years. We must therefore rely on modeling situations that we have never before seen.
Andy Jarvis - Climate Change Models Can Guide Our Adaptation Strategies Supagro Nov 2009
Climate change and agriculture: How models can guide our adaptation strategies Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Edward Guevara, Peter Laderach and Emmanuel Zapata Program Leader, Decision and Policy Analysis, CIAT
Contents <ul><li>About climate change and predictive models </li></ul><ul><li>Global level changes (agriculture and biodiversity)….. </li></ul><ul><li>… to regional crop specific changes…. </li></ul><ul><li>… to local adaptation options…. </li></ul><ul><li>Defining adaptation roadmaps </li></ul>
Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008
In order to prepare, we need to know what to prepare for…. <ul><li>… .but how? </li></ul>
Global Climate Models (GCMs) <ul><li>21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a touch of astrology </li></ul><ul><li>Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into the future </li></ul><ul><li>Run using different emissions scenarios </li></ul>
The Model: EcoCrop <ul><li>So, how does it work? </li></ul>It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation… … and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…
Agricultural systems analysis <ul><li>50 target crops selected based on area harvested in FAOSTAT </li></ul>
Average change in suitability for all crops in 2050s
Winners and losers Number of crops with more than 5% loss Number of crops with more than 5% gain
Message 1 Global suitability for agriculture reduces moderately, but problems of food distribution are exacerbated
But what about land-use and biodiversity distribution in 2050?
The current situation <ul><li>Covering 13.8% of the total global surface (3.8% international, 10% national) </li></ul>
Results: protected areas per region Current extent of in situ conservation Global biodiversity currently well conserved
Modeling approach <ul><li>Aplying the maximum entropy algorithm </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Macoubea guianensis Aubl.: food for rural indigenous communities in the Amazon </li></ul></ul>Data harvesting from GBIF Building the presence model Projecting on future climates NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION Potential habitat expansion NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION
Current and future predicted species richness <ul><li>Important hotspots in Latin America, Europe, Australasia and Central Africa </li></ul><ul><li>Displacement and loss of niches </li></ul>CURRENT NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION
Results: changes in species richness <ul><li>Null migration: losses everywhere </li></ul><ul><li>Unlimited migration: mostly displacement </li></ul>
Results: changes in species richness <ul><li>Null migration: losses everywhere </li></ul><ul><li>Unlimited migration: mostly displacement </li></ul>UNLIMITED MIGRATION NULL MIGRATION
Results: in situ conservation under the context of CC <ul><li>No matter if the best ‘adaptation’ scenario (unlimited dispersal) is chosen, negatives are expected in most regions </li></ul>
Message 2 There will be greater pressure on land resources for multiple uses, as currently non-arable land becomes arable, and as we face massive biodiversity loss
Minimising impacts: Breeding for beans ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) towards 2020
How are beans standing up currently? Parameters determined based on statistical analysis of current bean growing environments from the Africa and LAC Bean Atlases.
What will likely happen? 2020 – A2 2020 – A2 - changes
GCM Uncertainties COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION PERCENT OF MODELS WITH AGREED DIRECTION
What are the major climatic constraints for bean production? <ul><li>Most of the suitable environments are likely to be limited by temperatures (orange) </li></ul>
Technology options: breeding for drought and waterlogging tolerance Some 22.8% (3.8 million ha) would benefit from drought tolerance improvement to 2020s Drought tolerance Waterlogging tolerance
Technology options: breeding for heat and cold tolerance Cold tolerance Heat tolerance Some 42.7% (7.2 million ha) would benefit from heat tolerance improvement to 2020s
Worldwide cassava production climatic constraints <ul><li>Grey areas are the crop’s main niche. </li></ul>Blue areas constrained by precipitation Yellow-orange constrained by temperature
Impact of climate change on cassava suitable environments Global cassava suitability will increase 5.1% on average by 2050… but many areas of Latin America suffer negative impacts
…… .and for Latin America? Drought or flooding tolerance 30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought or flooding tolerance 1.6m Ha still suffering climatic constraint 2.23m Ha of current production 2.1m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
…… .and for Latin America? Heat or cold tolerance 27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat tolerance 2.23m Ha of current production 2.2m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
Message 3 Global impacts can be addressed in many cases through existing diversity, or through crop improvement, but we must start planning now
Moving more local… <ul><li>Coffee in Colombia and Central America </li></ul>
Suitability in Cauca <ul><li>Significant changes to 2020, drastic changes to 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>The Cauca case: reduced coffeee growing area and changes in geographic distribution. Some new opportunities. </li></ul>MECETA
Adaptation Options Management New markets Alternatives to coffee
Message 4 Locally, some significant upheavals could occur in terms of economies, cultures, and land-use patterns
Models to support adaptation roadmaps <ul><li>What to do, how, where, and when? </li></ul><ul><li>Describe the problem </li></ul><ul><li>Ex ante analysis of potential benefits from an action </li></ul><ul><li>Cost benefit analysis of adaptation options </li></ul><ul><li>Supporting actions on the ground, through participatory, community based processes </li></ul><ul><li>Ensure a holistic view: adaptation of agriculture and environment </li></ul>