IIASA's Stefan Frank presents results from modeling used to show mitigation of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and trade-offs with food security. SBSTA 44 side event: Establishing country emission reduction targets in agriculture: What is fair, ambitious & feasible? May 18, 2016

1. Regional participation to
meet climate targets:
Managing trade-offs with food
security
Stefan Frank, Petr Havlík, Nicklas Forsell, Hugo
Valin, Antoine Levesque, Ulrich Kleinwechter,
Oliver Fricko, Michael Obersteiner…

2. Reaching the 2 C target
2
AFOLU emissions Mitigation
Reduction of direct emissions
Carbon sequestration in soil and biomass
~ 2 GtCO2eq
Bioenergy demand
Provision of biomass for fossil fuel substitution

3. Reaching the 2 C target
Potential impact on food security!
3
Calorie consumptionFood price index
-4% by 2050+12% by 2050

5. Climate mitigation targets/policy
assumptions
– Reference
• business as usual, no climate mitigation
– RCP6.0
• Carbon tax 2 USD/tCO2eq in 2050
– RCP4.5
• Carbon tax 13 USD/tCO2eq in 2050
– RCP3.7
• Carbon tax 34 USD/tCO2eq in 2050
– RCP2.6
• Carbon tax 124 USD/tCO2eq in 2050
• à 2 C target
5

6. Participation in mitigation policies
Should there be any exemptions for particular
countries/regions to avoid conflict with food?
– Global actions vs.
– Annex I only
– Annex I + Brazil
– Annex I + Congo Basin countries
– Annex I + India
– Annex I + China
– Annex I + BRICS
– ….
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7. Regional climate change mitigation
7
Annex I only
Annex I + China
Annex I + Brazil
2 C target

8. Enabling SOC sequestration
8
No SOC sequestration
SOC sequestration
SOC sequestration + yield effect

9. Impact on calorie availability
9
RCP 2.6 RCP 3.7

10. Conclusions
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Cost-effective mitigation hot-spots i.e. regions
with large LUC emissions can provide major
mitigation with little conflict with food.
Substantial contributions from the agricultural
sector expected to attain ambitious targets.

11. Conclusions
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Some mitigation options seem win-win options
i.e. soil carbon sequestration or adaptation to
climate change which relax trade-offs with food
security. These activities should be promoted
and would justify compensation of farmers further
contributing to their income.

12. www.iiasa.ac.at
www.globiom.org
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13. GLOBIOM
• Spatial detail
• Productivities
• Carbon stocks
• Land markets
• Environmental & economic
impacts
• Intensification vs. area
expansion
• Mitigation technologies
Assessment of
policies
impacting the
land use sector
• Major land use sectors
• Commodity markets
• Substitution & knock-on effects
across markets
• International trade
• Tracingof direct and indirect
effects
Land heterogeneity
Global coverage
Production systems
Regional markets