Andy J Climate Change And Roots And Tubers Nov 2009

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Presentation on the impacts of climate change on agriculture, with specific reference to roots and tubers. made in the International Symposium for Roots and Tubers held in Lima, November 2009.

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  • How are we going to estimate the effects of climate change on agriculture unless we’re going to wait for it to happen? Past changes are not really a good estimator. The little ice age starting in 1450 or thereabouts was a major event, completely changing the life styles and agriculture in Europe. It is piddling compared with what we are likely to see in the next 20 to 50 years. We must therefore rely on modeling situations that we have never before seen.
  • Andy J Climate Change And Roots And Tubers Nov 2009

    1. 1. Climate change and roots and tubers Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Emmanuel Zapata
    2. 2. Contents <ul><li>About climate change and predictive models </li></ul><ul><li>Expected changes for potato and cassava growing regions </li></ul><ul><li>Implications on suitability </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges ahead </li></ul>
    3. 4. How can we be sure that it is changing?
    4. 7. Arctic Ice is Melting
    5. 8. In order to prepare, we need to know what to prepare for…. <ul><li>… .but how? </li></ul>
    6. 9. Global Climate Models (GCMs) <ul><li>21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a touch of astrology </li></ul><ul><li>Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into the future </li></ul><ul><li>Run using different emissions scenarios </li></ul>
    7. 11. So, what do they say?
    8. 13. Changes in rainfall…
    9. 14. CIAT’s Data <ul><li>18 GCM models to 2050, 9 to 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Different scenarios, A1b, B1, commit </li></ul><ul><li>Downscaled using empirical methods </li></ul>http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/
    10. 15. Changes in Cassava production areas in Latin America
    11. 18. The Impacts on Crop Suitability
    12. 19. The Model: EcoCrop <ul><li>So, how does it work? </li></ul>It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation… … and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…
    13. 20. Agricultural systems analysis <ul><li>50 target crops selected based on area harvested in FAOSTAT </li></ul>
    14. 21. Average change in suitability for all crops in 2050s
    15. 22. Winners and losers Number of crops with more than 5% loss Number of crops with more than 5% gain
    16. 23. And potato???
    17. 24. Current Suitability Suitability 2020
    18. 25. Current Suitability Suitability 2050
    19. 26. Change in suitability 2020 Change in suitability 2050
    20. 27. Impacts on production of cassava
    21. 28. Worldwide cassava production climatic constraints <ul><li>Grey areas are the crop’s main niche. </li></ul>Blue areas constrained by precipitation Yellow-orange constrained by temperature
    22. 29. Impact of climate change on cassava suitable environments Global cassava suitability will increase 5.1% on average by 2050… but many areas of Latin America suffer negative impacts
    23. 30. What are the expected global benefits? Increase of 5-10% in potential land area for cassava when implementing either drought or flood tolerance 21.9 million hectares (16.9% of global cassava fields) under cultivation would benefit 63.3 million hectares of new land would become suitable for cassava
    24. 31. …… .and for Latin America? Drought or flooding tolerance 30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought or flooding tolerance 1.6m Ha still suffering climatic constraint 2.23m Ha of current production 2.1m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
    25. 32. …… .and for Latin America? Heat or cold tolerance 27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat tolerance 2.23m Ha of current production 2.2m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
    26. 33. Evaluating Technology Options: Crop Improvement for Cassava Grey areas would get no benefit from drought or flood tolerance. Blue areas benefit from drought tolerance improvement Purple areas benefit from flood tolerance improvement
    27. 34. Pest and Disease Impacts
    28. 35. Impacts on green mite to 2020
    29. 36. Impacts on whitefly to 2020
    30. 37. Challenges ahead <ul><li>Further analysis: improvement of the parameters, greater uncertainty in GCMs </li></ul><ul><li>Inclusion of post-harvest impacts – drying for example </li></ul><ul><li>Further work in pest and disease impacts </li></ul><ul><li>… .but too late to wait for 100% certainty </li></ul><ul><li>Crop improvement and targeted varietal selection can support adaptation </li></ul>
    31. 38. GRACIAS!!!! [email_address]

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