Climate change and roots and tubers Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Emmanuel Zapata

How can we be sure that it is changing?

Arctic Ice is Melting

So, what do they say?

Changes in rainfall…

Changes in Cassava production areas in Latin America

The Impacts on Crop Suitability

Average change in suitability for all crops in 2050s

Winners and losers Number of crops with more than 5% loss Number of crops with more than 5% gain

And potato???

Current Suitability Suitability 2020

Current Suitability Suitability 2050

Change in suitability 2020 Change in suitability 2050

Impacts on production of cassava

Impact of climate change on cassava suitable environments Global cassava suitability will increase 5.1% on average by 2050… but many areas of Latin America suffer negative impacts

What are the expected global benefits? Increase of 5-10% in potential land area for cassava when implementing either drought or flood tolerance 21.9 million hectares (16.9% of global cassava fields) under cultivation would benefit 63.3 million hectares of new land would become suitable for cassava

…… .and for Latin America? Drought or flooding tolerance 30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought or flooding tolerance 1.6m Ha still suffering climatic constraint 2.23m Ha of current production 2.1m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava

…… .and for Latin America? Heat or cold tolerance 27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat tolerance 2.23m Ha of current production 2.2m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava

Evaluating Technology Options: Crop Improvement for Cassava Grey areas would get no benefit from drought or flood tolerance. Blue areas benefit from drought tolerance improvement Purple areas benefit from flood tolerance improvement

Pest and Disease Impacts

Impacts on green mite to 2020

Impacts on whitefly to 2020

GRACIAS!!!! [email_address]