1. Event Update | Oil & Gas
May 7, 2010
RIL-RNRL Case Verdict BUY
CMP Rs1,034
RIL Triumphs Target Price Rs1,260
In the much-awaited decision on the RIL-RNRL legal wrangle, the Supreme Court Investment Period 12 months
(SC) delivered its final verdict on May 7, 2010. A three-judge SC bench passed a
Stock Info
2:1 judgment in favour of RIL. The SC ruled that the family MoU under which RNRL
claimed cheap gas was not binding and that the government regulation overrides Sector Oil & Gas
the MoU. The SC has given RIL and RNRL six weeks to renegotiate the gas supply Market Cap (Rs cr) 338,107
agreement in line with the government regulations. The verdict squashed the Bombay Beta 1.1
High Court judgment given on June 15, 2009, which had directed RIL to supply 52 Week High / Low 1,245/859
RNRL 28mmscmd of gas at US $2.34/mmbtu for a period of 17 years staring
Avg Daily Volume 1092599
commissioning of Reliance Power's gas-based power plant. We had earlier factored
Face Value (Rs) 10
in a hit of Rs50/share for the RIL stock following the Bombay High Court judgment.
BSE Sensex 16,769
Pending more clarity regards the re-negotiations, we maintain our Target Price on
RIL. We expect more clarity to emerge over the next six weeks regards details of the Nifty 5,018
re-negotiation. Reuters Code RELI.BO
Bloomberg Code RIL@IN
Outlook and valuation: The judgment removes the overhang on the RIL’s
stock price, as the Earning visibility of the E&P segment is expected to improve
Shareholding Pattern (%)
(post FY2013E). The judgment should also accelerate the monetisation plan of
RIL's E&P portfolio, which would be a positive trigger for its stock. Post the verdict, Promoters 44.8
we believe that the company's focus should shift towards inorganic growth given MF / Banks / Indian Fis 15.3
the huge cash flow likely to be generated along with an low Debt/Equity ratio. FII / NRIs / OCBs 22.0
Thus, we expect the company's inorganic growth plans along with discovery and Indian Public / Others 17.9
monetisation of its upstream portfolio to keep it on high-growth orbit going ahead.
On the valuation front, the stock is relatively under valued trading at 1.8x FY2012E Abs. 3m 1yr 3yr
P/BV. Hence, we maintain a Buy on RIL, with a Target Price of Rs1,260, translating
RIL, Target Price
Sensex (%) 5.4 38.4 20.3
into an upside of 21.8% from current levels.
RIL (%) 4.0 8.0 28.8
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Net sales 151,224 203,740 234,754 243,596
% chg 10.3 34.7 15.2 3.8
Profit
Net Profit 14,969 15,898 22,743 28,550
% chg (23.3) 6.2 43.1 25.5
EPS (Rs) 45.8 48.6 69.5 87.3
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.5 15.2 17.6 20.0
P/E (x) 22.6 13.8 14.9 11.8 Deepak Pareek
Pareek
RoE (%) 14.5 11.9 14.7 16.1 +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 340
RoCE (%) 8.4 8.0 11.4 13.8 Email: deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
P/BV (x) 2.8 2.3 2.1 1.8
EV/ Sales (x) 2.6 1.8 1.5 1.4 Vora
Amit Vora
+91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 322
EV/ EBITDA (x) 16.7 12.1 8.6 6.9
Email: amit.vora@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
2. RIL-RNRL | Event Update
Key Excerpts of Supreme Court judgment
SC rules MoU to be a private pact between members of Ambani family and
not binding on RIL: The SC ruled that the government owns all the gas assets till it
RIL:
reaches the users. The Production Sharing Contract (PSC) between the government
and RIL will override all the prior agreements including the family MoU, which is
therefore not binding.
RNRL has been seeking to achieve supply of 28mmscmd of natural gas for 17 years
at US $2.34/mmbtu for its green-field power plant to be located at Dadri, in the
northern part of India as opposed to the government-approved price of
US $4.2/mmbtu. The supply was to be made from the KG-D6 block being operated
by RIL.
Court directs the parties to renegotiate within six weeks: The apex court has
ordered RIL to initiate re-negotiation of the terms of the Gas Sale Master Agreement
(GSMA) with RNRL. However, such renegotiations would have to be within the
framework of the government policy and approvals regarding price, quantity and
tenure for supply of gas. The renegotiations shall commence within eight weeks from
the judgment date at RIL's initiative and shall be completed within a period of six
weeks from the day of commencement of negotiations. We believe that RIL can sell
gas to RNRL only at the government approved price of US $4.2/mmbtu. If the
renegotiation efforts fail, then the matter could be taken to the Company Law Board.
Amidst such a scenario, we expect it to be a long-drawn matter. However, with the
apex court directing the negotiation to be in line with the government policy, we
expect the overhang on RIL to diminish, as uncertainty regards the gas prices is
expected to get resolved in favour of RIL.
Government ultimate power for gas pricing and utilisation: The SC has stated
that the Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) decision regarding utilisation of the
natural gas and the price formula/basis, etc. does not suffer from any legal or
constitutional infirmities and would apply to all supply of natural gas under the PSC.
The parties are bound by the government policy and approvals regarding price,
quantity and tenure for supply of gas.
RIL a mere contractor for producing natural gas: The SC has also stated
under the PSC that the contractor (RIL in this case) does not become the owner of
natural gas, and there is nothing like specified physical quantity of natural gas to be
shared by the government and the contractor. Thus , the apex court directed that the
share in profit petroleum will be given to operator in cash and not in kind.
Comprehensive Policy/suitable legislation required: The SC has directed the
Policy/suitable
government to frame a comprehensive policy/suitable legislation regards the energy
security of the country and supply of natural gas under PSCs.
Overrides Bombay High Court judgment: The SC verdict has squashed the
Bombay High Court judgment of June 15, 2009, which directed RIL to supply RNRL
28mmscmd of gas at US $2.34/mmbtu for 17 years post commissioning of Reliance
Power's Dadri plant. The parties can go for a review petition within two weeks of the
SC judgment. However, RNRL management has said that it would not file a review
petition against the verdict.
May 7, 2010 2
3. RIL-RNRL | Event Update
Impact analysis
We view the Court's verdict as favourable for RIL, while it is a negative for RNRL and
Reliance Power. The judgment has lifted the overhang from the RIL stock. However, we
do not expect RIL's near-term financial performance to get boosted by this verdict, as
even in case of RNRL's victory, the gas supplies would have only commenced post
FY2013E.
The judgment could result in an upside of Rs35 to our Target Price for RIL. Post the
High Court judgment we had reduced our Target Price for RIL by Rs50. With this
favourable outcome, the risks arising from the RIL-RNRL dispute have almost dissipated
for the RIL stock, though the RIL-NTPC litigation (to supply 12 mmscmd at
US $2.34/mmbtu) will continue to negatively impact it, albeit marginally. Moreover,
the Bombay High Court is likely to take up the RIL-NTPC matter in July 2010. Pending
more clarity regards re-negotiation between RIL and RNRL, we maintain our Target
Price on RIL at Rs1,260.
We had earlier envisaged that RNRL's future is not only dependent on the outcome of
the legal tussle with RIL, but also on uncertainties regarding matters such as the level
of Marketing Margins allowed to be charged. We had advised caution to investors
given lack of clarity on RNRL’s business model. We remain skeptical on the company’s
growth plans and believe that the stock could witness significant downsides from
current levels. The stock is Not Rated by us.
As the SC has ruled that the government has the ultimate rights in terms of pricing of
the gas, there are some concerns expressed by certain sections of the market regarding
the regulation of gas pricing in India by the government. However, we believe given
the fact that the KG-D6 gas price of US $4.2/mmbtu was evolved after working out a
formulae and through a market evaluation process, the government will continue to
be friendly towards private investments in the E&P Segment in the country. Also, given
SC's verdict is unlikely to impact the flow of gas to priority sectors going ahead, thus
the stocks in the user industries, viz. power and fertiliser, are unlikely to be impacted.
Outlook and Valuation
The judgment removes the overhang on the RIL stock price, as the Earnings visibility
of the E&P Segment is expected to improve (post FY2013E). The judgment should also
accelerate the monetisation plan of RIL's E&P portfolio, which would be a positive
trigger for its stock. Post the verdict, we believe that the company's focus should shift
towards inorganic growth given the huge cash flow likely to be generated along with
low Debt/Equity ratio. Thus, we expect the company's inorganic growth plans along
with discovery and monetisation of its upstream portfolio to keep it on high-growth
orbit going ahead. We expect improvement in Refining Margins and increased gas
production to drive RIL's Earnings growth over the next couple of years. On the valuation
front, the stock is relatively under valued trading at 1.8x FY2012E P/BV. Hence, we
RIL, Target Price
maintain a Buy on RIL, with a Target Price of Rs1,260, translating into an upside
of 21.8% from current levels.
May 7, 2010 3
4. RIL-RNRL | Event Update
Exhibit 1: History of RIL-RNRL spat
Date Event
Jan-04 RIL announced setting up of Dadri power plant
Oct-04 Joint meeting of RIL and REL. RIL board affirmed the KG Basin gas for
Dadri power plant
Jun-05 Business Re-organisation of RIL announced
Aug-05 RIL demerged into RIL (MDAG group) and RCOM, REL, Reliance Capital
and RNRL (ADAG)
Sep-05 As per arrangement, first 12 mmscmd of gas to be provided to NTPC
(@ US $2.34/mmbtu) and next 28 mmscmd to RNRL (@ US $2.34/mmbtu).
In case of failure of NTPC contract, RNRL to get 40 mmscmd. Also 40%
share in all future discoveries to RNRL at market rates.
Oct-05 RIL board approved the Scheme of De-merger
Oct-05 RIL Board filed an application for sanction of Demerger Scheme
Oct-05 RIL shareholders approved Demerger
Oct-05 RIL files petition for Demerger
Dec-05 Scheme of Demerger approved by Court
Jan-06 RIL Unilaterally executed gas supply agreement with RNRL, with RNRL in
its control. Agreement did not have firm quantity and tenure.
Feb-06 RIL transfers control of RNRL to ADAG group
Nov-06 RNRL approves court to implementation of demerger scheme as RNRL
claim unilateral agreement amount to breach of De-merger Scheme
May-07 Court Restricts RIL from creating third party right on RNRL's entitlement of
gas
Oct-07 Court held's that GSMA signed by RIL in Jan-06 is breach of Demerger
Scheme. Court asks both parties to renegotiate and settle terms of contract
within four months
Dec-07 RIL filed an appeal against the judgment before the division bench of
High court
Apr-08 GoI files an affidavits seeking vacation of stay on sales of gas.
Apr-08 RNRL requested cross examination of GoI deponent
Apr-08 GoI withdraws affidavits
Jan-09 Interim stay vacated
Jun-09 Bombay High court verdict maintains RNRL's petition is maintainable,
RNRL to get gas from RIL
Jul-09 RIL approaches supreme court.
Oct-09 Matter to be heard by Supreme court of India
May-10 Supreme Court's verdict favours RIL and sets a road map for re-negotiation
of RIL-RNRL Contract within the parameters of PSC.
Source: Company, Angel Research
May 7, 2010 4
10. RIL-RNRL
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Disclosure of Interest Statement RIL RNRL
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes Yes
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock Yes No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
11. RIL-RNRL
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