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Event Update | Oil & Gas
                                                                                                                         May 7, 2010



 RIL-RNRL Case Verdict                                                                      BUY
                                                                                            CMP                               Rs1,034
 RIL Triumphs                                                                               Target Price                      Rs1,260
 In the much-awaited decision on the RIL-RNRL legal wrangle, the Supreme Court              Investment Period            12 months
 (SC) delivered its final verdict on May 7, 2010. A three-judge SC bench passed a
                                                                                            Stock Info
 2:1 judgment in favour of RIL. The SC ruled that the family MoU under which RNRL
 claimed cheap gas was not binding and that the government regulation overrides             Sector                            Oil & Gas
 the MoU. The SC has given RIL and RNRL six weeks to renegotiate the gas supply             Market Cap (Rs cr)                 338,107
 agreement in line with the government regulations. The verdict squashed the Bombay         Beta                                   1.1
 High Court judgment given on June 15, 2009, which had directed RIL to supply               52 Week High / Low               1,245/859
 RNRL 28mmscmd of gas at US $2.34/mmbtu for a period of 17 years staring
                                                                                            Avg Daily Volume                  1092599
 commissioning of Reliance Power's gas-based power plant. We had earlier factored
                                                                                            Face Value (Rs)                         10
 in a hit of Rs50/share for the RIL stock following the Bombay High Court judgment.
                                                                                            BSE Sensex                          16,769
 Pending more clarity regards the re-negotiations, we maintain our Target Price on
 RIL. We expect more clarity to emerge over the next six weeks regards details of the       Nifty                                5,018
 re-negotiation.                                                                            Reuters Code                       RELI.BO
                                                                                            Bloomberg Code                      RIL@IN
 Outlook and valuation: The judgment removes the overhang on the RIL’s
 stock price, as the Earning visibility of the E&P segment is expected to improve
                                                                                            Shareholding Pattern (%)
 (post FY2013E). The judgment should also accelerate the monetisation plan of
 RIL's E&P portfolio, which would be a positive trigger for its stock. Post the verdict,    Promoters                             44.8

 we believe that the company's focus should shift towards inorganic growth given            MF / Banks / Indian Fis               15.3
 the huge cash flow likely to be generated along with an low Debt/Equity ratio.             FII / NRIs / OCBs                     22.0
 Thus, we expect the company's inorganic growth plans along with discovery and              Indian Public / Others                17.9
 monetisation of its upstream portfolio to keep it on high-growth orbit going ahead.
 On the valuation front, the stock is relatively under valued trading at 1.8x FY2012E       Abs.              3m        1yr        3yr
 P/BV. Hence, we maintain a Buy on RIL, with a Target Price of Rs1,260, translating
                                       RIL,        Target Price
                                                                                            Sensex (%)          5.4    38.4       20.3
 into an upside of 21.8% from current levels.
                                                                                            RIL (%)             4.0     8.0       28.8


 Key Financials (Consolidated)
 Y/E March (Rs cr)              FY2009         FY2010E            FY2011E   FY2012E
 Net sales                     151,224         203,740            234,754    243,596
 % chg                              10.3            34.7             15.2         3.8
     Profit
 Net Profit                     14,969          15,898             22,743     28,550
 % chg                             (23.3)            6.2             43.1        25.5
 EPS (Rs)                           45.8           48.6              69.5        87.3
 EBITDA Margin (%)                  15.5            15.2             17.6        20.0
 P/E (x)                            22.6            13.8             14.9        11.8      Deepak Pareek
                                                                                                  Pareek
 RoE (%)                            14.5            11.9             14.7        16.1      +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 340
 RoCE (%)                            8.4             8.0             11.4        13.8      Email: deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com

 P/BV (x)                            2.8             2.3              2.1         1.8
 EV/ Sales (x)                       2.6             1.8              1.5         1.4           Vora
                                                                                           Amit Vora
                                                                                           +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 322
 EV/ EBITDA (x)                     16.7            12.1              8.6         6.9
                                                                                           Email: amit.vora@angeltrade.com
 Source: Company, Angel Research




Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
RIL-RNRL | Event Update




              Key Excerpts of Supreme Court judgment
                   SC rules MoU to be a private pact between members of Ambani family and
              not binding on RIL: The SC ruled that the government owns all the gas assets till it
                              RIL:
              reaches the users. The Production Sharing Contract (PSC) between the government
              and RIL will override all the prior agreements including the family MoU, which is
              therefore not binding.

              RNRL has been seeking to achieve supply of 28mmscmd of natural gas for 17 years
              at US $2.34/mmbtu for its green-field power plant to be located at Dadri, in the
              northern part of India as opposed to the government-approved price of
              US $4.2/mmbtu. The supply was to be made from the KG-D6 block being operated
              by RIL.

                   Court directs the parties to renegotiate within six weeks: The apex court has
              ordered RIL to initiate re-negotiation of the terms of the Gas Sale Master Agreement
              (GSMA) with RNRL. However, such renegotiations would have to be within the
              framework of the government policy and approvals regarding price, quantity and
              tenure for supply of gas. The renegotiations shall commence within eight weeks from
              the judgment date at RIL's initiative and shall be completed within a period of six
              weeks from the day of commencement of negotiations. We believe that RIL can sell
              gas to RNRL only at the government approved price of US $4.2/mmbtu. If the
              renegotiation efforts fail, then the matter could be taken to the Company Law Board.
              Amidst such a scenario, we expect it to be a long-drawn matter. However, with the
              apex court directing the negotiation to be in line with the government policy, we
              expect the overhang on RIL to diminish, as uncertainty regards the gas prices is
              expected to get resolved in favour of RIL.

                   Government ultimate power for gas pricing and utilisation: The SC has stated
              that the Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) decision regarding utilisation of the
              natural gas and the price formula/basis, etc. does not suffer from any legal or
              constitutional infirmities and would apply to all supply of natural gas under the PSC.
              The parties are bound by the government policy and approvals regarding price,
              quantity and tenure for supply of gas.

                  RIL a mere contractor for producing natural gas: The SC has also stated
              under the PSC that the contractor (RIL in this case) does not become the owner of
              natural gas, and there is nothing like specified physical quantity of natural gas to be
              shared by the government and the contractor. Thus , the apex court directed that the
              share in profit petroleum will be given to operator in cash and not in kind.

                  Comprehensive Policy/suitable legislation required: The SC has directed the
                                     Policy/suitable
              government to frame a comprehensive policy/suitable legislation regards the energy
              security of the country and supply of natural gas under PSCs.

                    Overrides Bombay High Court judgment: The SC verdict has squashed the
              Bombay High Court judgment of June 15, 2009, which directed RIL to supply RNRL
              28mmscmd of gas at US $2.34/mmbtu for 17 years post commissioning of Reliance
              Power's Dadri plant. The parties can go for a review petition within two weeks of the
              SC judgment. However, RNRL management has said that it would not file a review
              petition against the verdict.




May 7, 2010                                                                                        2
RIL-RNRL | Event Update




              Impact analysis

              We view the Court's verdict as favourable for RIL, while it is a negative for RNRL and
              Reliance Power. The judgment has lifted the overhang from the RIL stock. However, we
              do not expect RIL's near-term financial performance to get boosted by this verdict, as
              even in case of RNRL's victory, the gas supplies would have only commenced post
              FY2013E.

              The judgment could result in an upside of Rs35 to our Target Price for RIL. Post the
              High Court judgment we had reduced our Target Price for RIL by Rs50. With this
              favourable outcome, the risks arising from the RIL-RNRL dispute have almost dissipated
              for the RIL stock, though the RIL-NTPC litigation (to supply 12 mmscmd at
              US $2.34/mmbtu) will continue to negatively impact it, albeit marginally. Moreover,
              the Bombay High Court is likely to take up the RIL-NTPC matter in July 2010. Pending
              more clarity regards re-negotiation between RIL and RNRL, we maintain our Target
              Price on RIL at Rs1,260.

              We had earlier envisaged that RNRL's future is not only dependent on the outcome of
              the legal tussle with RIL, but also on uncertainties regarding matters such as the level
              of Marketing Margins allowed to be charged. We had advised caution to investors
              given lack of clarity on RNRL’s business model. We remain skeptical on the company’s
              growth plans and believe that the stock could witness significant downsides from
              current levels. The stock is Not Rated by us.

              As the SC has ruled that the government has the ultimate rights in terms of pricing of
              the gas, there are some concerns expressed by certain sections of the market regarding
              the regulation of gas pricing in India by the government. However, we believe given
              the fact that the KG-D6 gas price of US $4.2/mmbtu was evolved after working out a
              formulae and through a market evaluation process, the government will continue to
              be friendly towards private investments in the E&P Segment in the country. Also, given
              SC's verdict is unlikely to impact the flow of gas to priority sectors going ahead, thus
              the stocks in the user industries, viz. power and fertiliser, are unlikely to be impacted.

              Outlook and Valuation

              The judgment removes the overhang on the RIL stock price, as the Earnings visibility
              of the E&P Segment is expected to improve (post FY2013E). The judgment should also
              accelerate the monetisation plan of RIL's E&P portfolio, which would be a positive
              trigger for its stock. Post the verdict, we believe that the company's focus should shift
              towards inorganic growth given the huge cash flow likely to be generated along with
              low Debt/Equity ratio. Thus, we expect the company's inorganic growth plans along
              with discovery and monetisation of its upstream portfolio to keep it on high-growth
              orbit going ahead. We expect improvement in Refining Margins and increased gas
              production to drive RIL's Earnings growth over the next couple of years. On the valuation
              front, the stock is relatively under valued trading at 1.8x FY2012E P/BV. Hence, we
                                     RIL,         Target Price
              maintain a Buy on RIL, with a Target Price of Rs1,260, translating into an upside
              of 21.8% from current levels.




May 7, 2010                                                                                           3
RIL-RNRL | Event Update




              Exhibit 1: History of RIL-RNRL spat

               Date       Event

               Jan-04     RIL announced setting up of Dadri power plant
               Oct-04     Joint meeting of RIL and REL. RIL board affirmed the KG Basin gas for
                          Dadri power plant
               Jun-05     Business Re-organisation of RIL announced
               Aug-05     RIL demerged into RIL (MDAG group) and RCOM, REL, Reliance Capital
                          and RNRL (ADAG)
               Sep-05     As per arrangement, first 12 mmscmd of gas to be provided to NTPC
                          (@ US $2.34/mmbtu) and next 28 mmscmd to RNRL (@ US $2.34/mmbtu).
                          In case of failure of NTPC contract, RNRL to get 40 mmscmd. Also 40%
                          share in all future discoveries to RNRL at market rates.
               Oct-05     RIL board approved the Scheme of De-merger
               Oct-05     RIL Board filed an application for sanction of Demerger Scheme
               Oct-05     RIL shareholders approved Demerger
               Oct-05     RIL files petition for Demerger
               Dec-05     Scheme of Demerger approved by Court
               Jan-06     RIL Unilaterally executed gas supply agreement with RNRL, with RNRL in
                          its control. Agreement did not have firm quantity and tenure.
               Feb-06     RIL transfers control of RNRL to ADAG group
               Nov-06     RNRL approves court to implementation of demerger scheme as RNRL
                          claim unilateral agreement amount to breach of De-merger Scheme
               May-07     Court Restricts RIL from creating third party right on RNRL's entitlement of
                          gas
               Oct-07     Court held's that GSMA signed by RIL in Jan-06 is breach of Demerger
                          Scheme. Court asks both parties to renegotiate and settle terms of contract
                          within four months
               Dec-07     RIL filed an appeal against the judgment before the division bench of
                          High court
               Apr-08     GoI files an affidavits seeking vacation of stay on sales of gas.
               Apr-08     RNRL requested cross examination of GoI deponent
               Apr-08     GoI withdraws affidavits
               Jan-09     Interim stay vacated
               Jun-09     Bombay High court verdict maintains RNRL's petition is maintainable,
                          RNRL to get gas from RIL
               Jul-09     RIL approaches supreme court.
               Oct-09     Matter to be heard by Supreme court of India
               May-10     Supreme Court's verdict favours RIL and sets a road map for re-negotiation
                          of RIL-RNRL Contract within the parameters of PSC.
               Source: Company, Angel Research




May 7, 2010                                                                                         4
RIL-RNRL | Event Update




              Exhibit 2: One-year forward P/E Band
                                  1,800

                                  1,600
                                  1,400                                                                                                                                                                            19x
                                  1,200                                                                                                                                                                            16x




               Share price (Rs)
                                  1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   13x
                                   800
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   10x
                                   600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   7x
                                   400
                                   200

                                        0
                                                 Apr-04


                                                               Oct-04


                                                                            Apr-05


                                                                                        Oct-05




                                                                                                                                                                      Apr-09


                                                                                                                                                                                        Oct-09
                                                                                                  Apr-06


                                                                                                           Oct-06




                                                                                                                                           Apr-08


                                                                                                                                                        Oct-08
                                                                                                                    Apr-07


                                                                                                                              Oct-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                          Apr-10
              Source: Company, Angel Research


              Exhibit 3: Premium/Discount in RIL (P/E) v/s Sensex (P/E)
                                   60

                                   40


                                   20
              (%)




                                    0

                                  -20


                                  -40

                                  -60
                                        Apr-04


                                                          Oct-04


                                                                        Apr-05


                                                                                     Oct-05


                                                                                                 Apr-06


                                                                                                           Oct-06


                                                                                                                     Apr-07


                                                                                                                               Oct-07


                                                                                                                                               Apr-08


                                                                                                                                                             Oct-08


                                                                                                                                                                               Apr-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-10
                                                                                                 Prem/Disc to Sensex                   Historic Avg Disc

              Source: Company, Angel Research




May 7, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                                                  5
RIL-RNRL | Event Update




              Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)                                            Rs crore
              Y/E March                      FY2007    FY2008     FY2009    FY2010E   FY2011E   FY2012E
              Total operating income        113,770   137,147 151,224 203,740 234,754 243,596
              % chg                            37.0      20.5       10.3       34.7      15.2       3.8

              Total Expenditure              93,642   114,002    127,802    172,846   193,437   194,844

              Net Raw Materials              77,072    89,912    105,224    147,065   162,919   160,984

              Purchases of finished goods     1,945     9,851      7,202      7,538     7,747     8,039

              Personnel                       2,591     2,738      3,018      2,791     4,460     5,116

              Other                          12,034    11,501     12,358     15,452    18,311    20,706

              EBITDA
              EBITDA                         20,128    23,145    23,422     30,894    41,317    48,752

              % chg                            40.3      15.0        1.2       31.9      33.7      18.0

              (% of Net Sales)                 17.7      16.9       15.5       15.2      17.6      20.0

              Depreciation& Amortisation      4,899     5,004      5,651     10,946    12,046    12,952

              EBIT                           15,228    18,140    17,771     19,948    29,271    35,800
              % chg                            40.3      19.1       (2.0)      12.2      46.7      22.3

              (% of Net Sales)                 13.4      13.2       11.8        9.8      12.5      14.7

              Interest & other Charges        1,232     1,087      1,816      2,060     2,790     2,090

              Other Income                     651      1,223      1,914      2,186     2,279     2,419

              (% of PBT)                        4.4       5.3       10.7        7.6       7.9       6.7

              Recurring PBT                  14,647    18,277    17,869     20,074    28,760    36,129
              % chg                            31.7      24.8       (2.2)      12.3      43.3      25.6

              Extraordinary Income/Exp            -     4,734           -     8,606         -         -

              PBT (reported)                 14,647    23,011    17,869     28,680    28,760    36,129
              Tax                             2,572     3,488      2,919      4,256     6,097     7,659

              (% of PBT)                       17.6      15.2       16.3       14.8      21.2      21.2

              PAT (reported)                 12,075    19,523    14,950     24,424    22,663    28,470
               Minority interest (MI)           0.1      (1.9)      18.4       80.0      80.0      80.0

              PAT after MI (reported)        12,075    19,521    14,969     24,504    22,743    28,550

              ADJ. PAT(core)
              ADJ. PA                        12,075    14,788    14,969     15,898    22,743    28,550
              % chg                            27.1      22.5        1.2        6.2      43.1      25.5

              (% of Net Sales)                 10.6      10.8        9.9        7.8       9.7      11.7

              Basic EPS (Rs)                   36.9      45.2      45.8       48.6      69.5      87.3

              Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)           36.9      45.2      45.8       48.6      69.5      87.3
              % chg                            27.1      22.5        1.2        6.2      43.1      25.5




May 7, 2010                                                                                               6
RIL-RNRL | Event Update




              Balance Sheet (Consolidated)                                                      Rs crore
              Y/E March                        FY2007    FY2008    FY2009   FY2010E   FY2011E   FY2012E
              SOURCES OF FUNDS
              Equity Share Capital              1,453     3,136     1,444     2,978     2,978     2,978

              Reserves& Surplus                66,766    82,375   119,813   141,878   161,833   187,177

                           Funds
              Shareholders Funds               68,219    85,510 121,257 144,856 164,811 190,155
              Minority Interest                 3,422     4,089      139          -         -         -

              Total Loans                      33,651    50,696    76,257    61,257    41,257    21,257

              Deferred Tax Liability            6,991     7,798     9,551    10,682    10,682    10,682

              Total Liabilities               112,283   148,093 207,203 216,795 216,750 222,094

              APPLICATION OF FUNDS
              APPLICATION

              Gross Block                     103,303   109,180   157,182   175,829   242,081   257,531

              Less: Acc. Depreciation          38,480    45,119    50,138    61,084    73,130    86,082

              Net Block                        64,823    64,061 107,044 114,744 168,951 171,449
              Capital Work-in-Progress         29,324    49,884    73,846    58,202     6,450     7,500

              Goodwill                              -         -         -         -         -         -

              Investments                       5,268     9,523     6,436    7,723     7,723     7,723

              Current Assets                   33,116    51,489    58,746    73,142    74,515    76,299

                 Cash                           1,937     4,474    22,742    26,902    22,629    24,386

                 Loans & Advances              14,888    21,748    11,002    10,584    10,584    10,584

                 Other                         16,291    25,267    25,002    35,656    41,302    41,330

              Current liabilities and prov.    20,252    26,867    38,872    37,020    40,892    40,880

              Net Current Assets               12,864    24,622   19,874    36,122    33,623    35,419

              Mis. Exp. not written off            5         3         4         4         4         4

              Total Assets                    112,283   148,093 207,203 216,795 216,750 222,094




May 7, 2010                                                                                               7
RIL-RNRL | Event Update




              Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)                                                    Rs crore
              Y/E March                       FY2007     FY2008     FY2009    FY2010E    FY2011E    FY2012E
              Profit before tax               14,647     23,011     17,869     28,680     28,760     36,129

              Depreciation                     6,896      6,785      7,713     10,946     12,046     12,952

              Change in Working Capital       (1,514)    (4,565)    (5,771)   (12,506)    (1,680)       (39)

              Less: Other income                (582)    (5,827)    (1,330)    (2,186)    (2,279)    (2,419)

              Direct taxes paid               (1,936)    (2,475)    (1,926)    (4,256)    (6,097)    (7,659)

              Cash Flow from Operations 17,512           16,929    16,555     20,678     30,750     38,964
              (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets   (27,946)   (26,640)   (27,732)    (3,002)   (14,500)   (16,500)

              (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments      2,431      4,335      3,366     (1,287)          -          -

              (Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and adv. (4,239)     (8,623)      (102)       418           -          -

              Other income                       508        503      1,364      2,266      2,359      2,499

              Cash Flow from Investing (29,245)         (30,426) (23,103)     (1,606) (12,141) (14,001)

              Issue of Equity                  5,262      1,682     15,165      1,534           -          -

              Inc./(Dec.) in loans            10,545     17,652     16,514    (15,000)   (20,000)   (20,000)

              Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)       (3,274)          -    (1,908)    (2,219)    (2,439)    (2,787)

              Others                          (1,479)    (3,301)    (4,954)       773       (443)      (418)

                             Financing
              Cash Flow from Financing       11,054      16,033    24,817 (14,913) (22,882) (23,206)
              Inc./(Dec.) in Cash               (679)     2,537     18,268      4,160     (4,273)     1,757

              Opening Cash balances            2,616      1,937      4,474    22,742     26,902     22,629

              Closing Cash balances            1,937      4,474    22,742     26,902     22,629     24,386




May 7, 2010                                                                                                    8
RIL-RNRL | Event Update




              Key Ratios
              Y/E March                      FY2007    FY2008   FY2009   FY2010E   FY2011E   FY2012E
              Valuation Ratios (x)
              P/E (on FDEPS)                   28.0     17.3     22.6      13.8      14.9      11.8
              P/CEPS                           19.9     13.8     16.4        9.5       9.7       8.1
              P/BV                              5.0       4.0      2.8       2.3       2.1       1.8
              Dividend yield (%)                0.5      0.5      0.6       0.7       0.8       0.9
              EV/Sales                          3.3       2.8      2.6       1.8       1.5       1.4
              EV/EBITDA                        18.4     16.6     16.7      12.1        8.6       6.9
              EV/Total Assets                   2.8       2.2      1.6       1.5       1.4       1.3
              Per Share Data (Rs)
              EPS (Basic)                      36.9     45.2     45.8      48.6      69.5      87.3
              EPS (fully diluted)              36.9     45.2     45.8      48.6      69.5      87.3
              Cash EPS                         51.9     75.0     63.1     108.4     106.4     126.9
              DPS                               4.8       5.5      6.4       7.0       8.0       9.2
              Book Value                        209      261      371       443       504       582
              Returns (%)
              ROCE (Pre-tax)                   13.3     11.8      8.4       8.0      11.4      13.8
              Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)             16.3     16.4     13.2      12.5      14.7      15.6
              ROE                              20.3     19.9     14.5      11.9      14.7      16.1
              Turnover ratios (x)
              Asset Turnover (Gross Block)      1.2       1.3      1.1       1.2      1.1        1.0
              Inventory / Sales (days)         36.6     42.0     47.4      41.8      44.6      45.8
              Receivables (days)               13.1     13.2     13.2      12.5      15.2      15.9
              Payables (days)                  60.5     66.6     84.5      72.7      65.7      68.2
              WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)        26.1     41.4     20.9        5.7     15.7      16.5
              Solvency ratios (x)
              Net debt to equity                0.2       0.2      0.2       0.2       0.1       0.0
              Net debt to EBITDA                1.3       1.7      2.1       1.4       0.6       0.2
              Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest) 12.4    16.7       9.8       9.7     10.5      17.1




May 7, 2010                                                                                            9
RIL-RNRL




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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).




     Disclosure of Interest Statement                                                   RIL                    RNRL
     1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                                  No                     No
     2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                            Yes                    Yes
     3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock                 Yes                    No
     4. Broking relationship with company covered                                       No                     No

     Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.



  Ratings (Returns) :             Buy (> 15%)                               Accumulate (5% to 15%)                     Neutral (-5 to 5%)
                                  Reduce (-5% to -15%)                      Sell (< -15%)
RIL-RNRL




              Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                                       Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800

Research Team
Fundamental:
Sarabjit Kour Nangra                                                                               VP-Research, Pharmaceutical                                                            sarabjit@angeltrade.com
Vaibhav Agrawal                                                                                    VP-Research, Banking                                                                   vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com
Vaishali Jajoo                                                                                     Automobile                                                                             vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com
Shailesh Kanani                                                                                    Infrastructure, Real Estate                                                            shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com
Anand Shah                                                                                         FMCG , Media                                                                           anand.shah@angeltrade.com
Deepak Pareek                                                                                      Oil & Gas                                                                              deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
Puneet Bambha                                                                                      Capital Goods, Engineering                                                             puneet.bambha@angeltrade.com
Sushant Dalmia                                                                                     Pharmaceutical                                                                         sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com
Rupesh Sankhe                                                                                      Cement, Power                                                                          rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com
Param Desai                                                                                        Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping                                                       paramv.desai@angeltrade.com
Sageraj Bariya                                                                                     Fertiliser, Mid-cap                                                                    sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com
Viraj Nadkarni                                                                                     Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap                                                                virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com
Paresh Jain                                                                                        Metals & Mining                                                                        pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com
Amit Rane                                                                                          Banking                                                                                amitn.rane@angeltrade.com
Rahul Jain                                                                                         IT, Telecom                                                                            rahul.j@angeltrade.com
Jai Sharda                                                                                         Mid-cap                                                                                jai.sharda@angeltrade.com
Sharan Lillaney                                                                                    Mid-cap                                                                                sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com

Amit Vora                                                                                          Research        Associate (Oil & Gas)                                                  amit.vora@angeltrade.com
V Srinivasan                                                                                       Research        Associate (Cement, Power)                                              v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com
Aniruddha Mate                                                                                     Research        Associate (Infra, Real Estate)                                         aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com
Shreya Gaunekar                                                                                    Research        Associate (Automobile)                                                 shreyap.gaunekar@angeltrade.com
Mihir Salot                                                                                        Research        Associate (Logistics, Shipping)                                        mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com
Chitrangda Kapur                                                                                   Research        Associate (FMCG, Media)                                                chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
Vibha Salvi                                                                                        Research        Associate (IT, Telecom)                                                vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com
Pooja Jain                                                                                         Research        Associate (Metals & Mining)                                            pooja.j@angeltrade.com

Technicals:
Shardul Kulkarni                                                                                   Sr. Technical Analyst                                                                  shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com
Mileen Vasudeo                                                                                     Technical Analyst                                                                      vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com
Derivatives:
Siddarth Bhamre                                                                                    Head - Derivatives                                                                     siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com
Jaya Agarwal                                                                                       Derivative Analyst                                                                     jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com
Sandeep Patil                                                                                      Jr. Derivative Analyst                                                                 patil.sandeep@angeltrade.com


Institutional Sales Team:
Mayuresh Joshi                                                                                     VP - Institutional Sales                                                               mayuresh.joshi@angeltrade.com
Abhimanyu Sofat                                                                                    AVP - Institutional Sales                                                              abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com
Nitesh Jalan                                                                                       Sr. Manager                                                                            niteshk.jalan@angeltrade.com
Pranav Modi                                                                                        Sr. Manager                                                                            pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com
Sandeep Jangir                                                                                     Sr. Manager                                                                            sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com
Ganesh Iyer                                                                                        Sr. Manager                                                                            ganeshb.Iyer@angeltrade.com
Jay Harsora                                                                                        Sr. Dealer                                                                             jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com
Meenakshi Chavan                                                                                   Dealer                                                                                 meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com
Gaurang Tisani                                                                                     Dealer                                                                                 gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com


Production Team:
Bharathi Shetty                                                                                    Research Editor                                                                        bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com
Dharmil Adhyaru                                                                                    Assistant Research Editor                                                              dharmil.adhyaru@angeltrade.com
Bharat Patil                                                                                       Production                                                                             bharat.patil@angeltrade.com
Dilip Patel                                                                                        Production                                                                             dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com

Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

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Ril event update - 070510

  • 1. Event Update | Oil & Gas May 7, 2010 RIL-RNRL Case Verdict BUY CMP Rs1,034 RIL Triumphs Target Price Rs1,260 In the much-awaited decision on the RIL-RNRL legal wrangle, the Supreme Court Investment Period 12 months (SC) delivered its final verdict on May 7, 2010. A three-judge SC bench passed a Stock Info 2:1 judgment in favour of RIL. The SC ruled that the family MoU under which RNRL claimed cheap gas was not binding and that the government regulation overrides Sector Oil & Gas the MoU. The SC has given RIL and RNRL six weeks to renegotiate the gas supply Market Cap (Rs cr) 338,107 agreement in line with the government regulations. The verdict squashed the Bombay Beta 1.1 High Court judgment given on June 15, 2009, which had directed RIL to supply 52 Week High / Low 1,245/859 RNRL 28mmscmd of gas at US $2.34/mmbtu for a period of 17 years staring Avg Daily Volume 1092599 commissioning of Reliance Power's gas-based power plant. We had earlier factored Face Value (Rs) 10 in a hit of Rs50/share for the RIL stock following the Bombay High Court judgment. BSE Sensex 16,769 Pending more clarity regards the re-negotiations, we maintain our Target Price on RIL. We expect more clarity to emerge over the next six weeks regards details of the Nifty 5,018 re-negotiation. Reuters Code RELI.BO Bloomberg Code RIL@IN Outlook and valuation: The judgment removes the overhang on the RIL’s stock price, as the Earning visibility of the E&P segment is expected to improve Shareholding Pattern (%) (post FY2013E). The judgment should also accelerate the monetisation plan of RIL's E&P portfolio, which would be a positive trigger for its stock. Post the verdict, Promoters 44.8 we believe that the company's focus should shift towards inorganic growth given MF / Banks / Indian Fis 15.3 the huge cash flow likely to be generated along with an low Debt/Equity ratio. FII / NRIs / OCBs 22.0 Thus, we expect the company's inorganic growth plans along with discovery and Indian Public / Others 17.9 monetisation of its upstream portfolio to keep it on high-growth orbit going ahead. On the valuation front, the stock is relatively under valued trading at 1.8x FY2012E Abs. 3m 1yr 3yr P/BV. Hence, we maintain a Buy on RIL, with a Target Price of Rs1,260, translating RIL, Target Price Sensex (%) 5.4 38.4 20.3 into an upside of 21.8% from current levels. RIL (%) 4.0 8.0 28.8 Key Financials (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net sales 151,224 203,740 234,754 243,596 % chg 10.3 34.7 15.2 3.8 Profit Net Profit 14,969 15,898 22,743 28,550 % chg (23.3) 6.2 43.1 25.5 EPS (Rs) 45.8 48.6 69.5 87.3 EBITDA Margin (%) 15.5 15.2 17.6 20.0 P/E (x) 22.6 13.8 14.9 11.8 Deepak Pareek Pareek RoE (%) 14.5 11.9 14.7 16.1 +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 340 RoCE (%) 8.4 8.0 11.4 13.8 Email: deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com P/BV (x) 2.8 2.3 2.1 1.8 EV/ Sales (x) 2.6 1.8 1.5 1.4 Vora Amit Vora +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 322 EV/ EBITDA (x) 16.7 12.1 8.6 6.9 Email: amit.vora@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
  • 2. RIL-RNRL | Event Update Key Excerpts of Supreme Court judgment SC rules MoU to be a private pact between members of Ambani family and not binding on RIL: The SC ruled that the government owns all the gas assets till it RIL: reaches the users. The Production Sharing Contract (PSC) between the government and RIL will override all the prior agreements including the family MoU, which is therefore not binding. RNRL has been seeking to achieve supply of 28mmscmd of natural gas for 17 years at US $2.34/mmbtu for its green-field power plant to be located at Dadri, in the northern part of India as opposed to the government-approved price of US $4.2/mmbtu. The supply was to be made from the KG-D6 block being operated by RIL. Court directs the parties to renegotiate within six weeks: The apex court has ordered RIL to initiate re-negotiation of the terms of the Gas Sale Master Agreement (GSMA) with RNRL. However, such renegotiations would have to be within the framework of the government policy and approvals regarding price, quantity and tenure for supply of gas. The renegotiations shall commence within eight weeks from the judgment date at RIL's initiative and shall be completed within a period of six weeks from the day of commencement of negotiations. We believe that RIL can sell gas to RNRL only at the government approved price of US $4.2/mmbtu. If the renegotiation efforts fail, then the matter could be taken to the Company Law Board. Amidst such a scenario, we expect it to be a long-drawn matter. However, with the apex court directing the negotiation to be in line with the government policy, we expect the overhang on RIL to diminish, as uncertainty regards the gas prices is expected to get resolved in favour of RIL. Government ultimate power for gas pricing and utilisation: The SC has stated that the Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) decision regarding utilisation of the natural gas and the price formula/basis, etc. does not suffer from any legal or constitutional infirmities and would apply to all supply of natural gas under the PSC. The parties are bound by the government policy and approvals regarding price, quantity and tenure for supply of gas. RIL a mere contractor for producing natural gas: The SC has also stated under the PSC that the contractor (RIL in this case) does not become the owner of natural gas, and there is nothing like specified physical quantity of natural gas to be shared by the government and the contractor. Thus , the apex court directed that the share in profit petroleum will be given to operator in cash and not in kind. Comprehensive Policy/suitable legislation required: The SC has directed the Policy/suitable government to frame a comprehensive policy/suitable legislation regards the energy security of the country and supply of natural gas under PSCs. Overrides Bombay High Court judgment: The SC verdict has squashed the Bombay High Court judgment of June 15, 2009, which directed RIL to supply RNRL 28mmscmd of gas at US $2.34/mmbtu for 17 years post commissioning of Reliance Power's Dadri plant. The parties can go for a review petition within two weeks of the SC judgment. However, RNRL management has said that it would not file a review petition against the verdict. May 7, 2010 2
  • 3. RIL-RNRL | Event Update Impact analysis We view the Court's verdict as favourable for RIL, while it is a negative for RNRL and Reliance Power. The judgment has lifted the overhang from the RIL stock. However, we do not expect RIL's near-term financial performance to get boosted by this verdict, as even in case of RNRL's victory, the gas supplies would have only commenced post FY2013E. The judgment could result in an upside of Rs35 to our Target Price for RIL. Post the High Court judgment we had reduced our Target Price for RIL by Rs50. With this favourable outcome, the risks arising from the RIL-RNRL dispute have almost dissipated for the RIL stock, though the RIL-NTPC litigation (to supply 12 mmscmd at US $2.34/mmbtu) will continue to negatively impact it, albeit marginally. Moreover, the Bombay High Court is likely to take up the RIL-NTPC matter in July 2010. Pending more clarity regards re-negotiation between RIL and RNRL, we maintain our Target Price on RIL at Rs1,260. We had earlier envisaged that RNRL's future is not only dependent on the outcome of the legal tussle with RIL, but also on uncertainties regarding matters such as the level of Marketing Margins allowed to be charged. We had advised caution to investors given lack of clarity on RNRL’s business model. We remain skeptical on the company’s growth plans and believe that the stock could witness significant downsides from current levels. The stock is Not Rated by us. As the SC has ruled that the government has the ultimate rights in terms of pricing of the gas, there are some concerns expressed by certain sections of the market regarding the regulation of gas pricing in India by the government. However, we believe given the fact that the KG-D6 gas price of US $4.2/mmbtu was evolved after working out a formulae and through a market evaluation process, the government will continue to be friendly towards private investments in the E&P Segment in the country. Also, given SC's verdict is unlikely to impact the flow of gas to priority sectors going ahead, thus the stocks in the user industries, viz. power and fertiliser, are unlikely to be impacted. Outlook and Valuation The judgment removes the overhang on the RIL stock price, as the Earnings visibility of the E&P Segment is expected to improve (post FY2013E). The judgment should also accelerate the monetisation plan of RIL's E&P portfolio, which would be a positive trigger for its stock. Post the verdict, we believe that the company's focus should shift towards inorganic growth given the huge cash flow likely to be generated along with low Debt/Equity ratio. Thus, we expect the company's inorganic growth plans along with discovery and monetisation of its upstream portfolio to keep it on high-growth orbit going ahead. We expect improvement in Refining Margins and increased gas production to drive RIL's Earnings growth over the next couple of years. On the valuation front, the stock is relatively under valued trading at 1.8x FY2012E P/BV. Hence, we RIL, Target Price maintain a Buy on RIL, with a Target Price of Rs1,260, translating into an upside of 21.8% from current levels. May 7, 2010 3
  • 4. RIL-RNRL | Event Update Exhibit 1: History of RIL-RNRL spat Date Event Jan-04 RIL announced setting up of Dadri power plant Oct-04 Joint meeting of RIL and REL. RIL board affirmed the KG Basin gas for Dadri power plant Jun-05 Business Re-organisation of RIL announced Aug-05 RIL demerged into RIL (MDAG group) and RCOM, REL, Reliance Capital and RNRL (ADAG) Sep-05 As per arrangement, first 12 mmscmd of gas to be provided to NTPC (@ US $2.34/mmbtu) and next 28 mmscmd to RNRL (@ US $2.34/mmbtu). In case of failure of NTPC contract, RNRL to get 40 mmscmd. Also 40% share in all future discoveries to RNRL at market rates. Oct-05 RIL board approved the Scheme of De-merger Oct-05 RIL Board filed an application for sanction of Demerger Scheme Oct-05 RIL shareholders approved Demerger Oct-05 RIL files petition for Demerger Dec-05 Scheme of Demerger approved by Court Jan-06 RIL Unilaterally executed gas supply agreement with RNRL, with RNRL in its control. Agreement did not have firm quantity and tenure. Feb-06 RIL transfers control of RNRL to ADAG group Nov-06 RNRL approves court to implementation of demerger scheme as RNRL claim unilateral agreement amount to breach of De-merger Scheme May-07 Court Restricts RIL from creating third party right on RNRL's entitlement of gas Oct-07 Court held's that GSMA signed by RIL in Jan-06 is breach of Demerger Scheme. Court asks both parties to renegotiate and settle terms of contract within four months Dec-07 RIL filed an appeal against the judgment before the division bench of High court Apr-08 GoI files an affidavits seeking vacation of stay on sales of gas. Apr-08 RNRL requested cross examination of GoI deponent Apr-08 GoI withdraws affidavits Jan-09 Interim stay vacated Jun-09 Bombay High court verdict maintains RNRL's petition is maintainable, RNRL to get gas from RIL Jul-09 RIL approaches supreme court. Oct-09 Matter to be heard by Supreme court of India May-10 Supreme Court's verdict favours RIL and sets a road map for re-negotiation of RIL-RNRL Contract within the parameters of PSC. Source: Company, Angel Research May 7, 2010 4
  • 5. RIL-RNRL | Event Update Exhibit 2: One-year forward P/E Band 1,800 1,600 1,400 19x 1,200 16x Share price (Rs) 1,000 13x 800 10x 600 7x 400 200 0 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-10 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 3: Premium/Discount in RIL (P/E) v/s Sensex (P/E) 60 40 20 (%) 0 -20 -40 -60 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Prem/Disc to Sensex Historic Avg Disc Source: Company, Angel Research May 7, 2010 5
  • 6. RIL-RNRL | Event Update Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) Rs crore Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Total operating income 113,770 137,147 151,224 203,740 234,754 243,596 % chg 37.0 20.5 10.3 34.7 15.2 3.8 Total Expenditure 93,642 114,002 127,802 172,846 193,437 194,844 Net Raw Materials 77,072 89,912 105,224 147,065 162,919 160,984 Purchases of finished goods 1,945 9,851 7,202 7,538 7,747 8,039 Personnel 2,591 2,738 3,018 2,791 4,460 5,116 Other 12,034 11,501 12,358 15,452 18,311 20,706 EBITDA EBITDA 20,128 23,145 23,422 30,894 41,317 48,752 % chg 40.3 15.0 1.2 31.9 33.7 18.0 (% of Net Sales) 17.7 16.9 15.5 15.2 17.6 20.0 Depreciation& Amortisation 4,899 5,004 5,651 10,946 12,046 12,952 EBIT 15,228 18,140 17,771 19,948 29,271 35,800 % chg 40.3 19.1 (2.0) 12.2 46.7 22.3 (% of Net Sales) 13.4 13.2 11.8 9.8 12.5 14.7 Interest & other Charges 1,232 1,087 1,816 2,060 2,790 2,090 Other Income 651 1,223 1,914 2,186 2,279 2,419 (% of PBT) 4.4 5.3 10.7 7.6 7.9 6.7 Recurring PBT 14,647 18,277 17,869 20,074 28,760 36,129 % chg 31.7 24.8 (2.2) 12.3 43.3 25.6 Extraordinary Income/Exp - 4,734 - 8,606 - - PBT (reported) 14,647 23,011 17,869 28,680 28,760 36,129 Tax 2,572 3,488 2,919 4,256 6,097 7,659 (% of PBT) 17.6 15.2 16.3 14.8 21.2 21.2 PAT (reported) 12,075 19,523 14,950 24,424 22,663 28,470 Minority interest (MI) 0.1 (1.9) 18.4 80.0 80.0 80.0 PAT after MI (reported) 12,075 19,521 14,969 24,504 22,743 28,550 ADJ. PAT(core) ADJ. PA 12,075 14,788 14,969 15,898 22,743 28,550 % chg 27.1 22.5 1.2 6.2 43.1 25.5 (% of Net Sales) 10.6 10.8 9.9 7.8 9.7 11.7 Basic EPS (Rs) 36.9 45.2 45.8 48.6 69.5 87.3 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 36.9 45.2 45.8 48.6 69.5 87.3 % chg 27.1 22.5 1.2 6.2 43.1 25.5 May 7, 2010 6
  • 7. RIL-RNRL | Event Update Balance Sheet (Consolidated) Rs crore Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 1,453 3,136 1,444 2,978 2,978 2,978 Reserves& Surplus 66,766 82,375 119,813 141,878 161,833 187,177 Funds Shareholders Funds 68,219 85,510 121,257 144,856 164,811 190,155 Minority Interest 3,422 4,089 139 - - - Total Loans 33,651 50,696 76,257 61,257 41,257 21,257 Deferred Tax Liability 6,991 7,798 9,551 10,682 10,682 10,682 Total Liabilities 112,283 148,093 207,203 216,795 216,750 222,094 APPLICATION OF FUNDS APPLICATION Gross Block 103,303 109,180 157,182 175,829 242,081 257,531 Less: Acc. Depreciation 38,480 45,119 50,138 61,084 73,130 86,082 Net Block 64,823 64,061 107,044 114,744 168,951 171,449 Capital Work-in-Progress 29,324 49,884 73,846 58,202 6,450 7,500 Goodwill - - - - - - Investments 5,268 9,523 6,436 7,723 7,723 7,723 Current Assets 33,116 51,489 58,746 73,142 74,515 76,299 Cash 1,937 4,474 22,742 26,902 22,629 24,386 Loans & Advances 14,888 21,748 11,002 10,584 10,584 10,584 Other 16,291 25,267 25,002 35,656 41,302 41,330 Current liabilities and prov. 20,252 26,867 38,872 37,020 40,892 40,880 Net Current Assets 12,864 24,622 19,874 36,122 33,623 35,419 Mis. Exp. not written off 5 3 4 4 4 4 Total Assets 112,283 148,093 207,203 216,795 216,750 222,094 May 7, 2010 7
  • 8. RIL-RNRL | Event Update Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) Rs crore Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax 14,647 23,011 17,869 28,680 28,760 36,129 Depreciation 6,896 6,785 7,713 10,946 12,046 12,952 Change in Working Capital (1,514) (4,565) (5,771) (12,506) (1,680) (39) Less: Other income (582) (5,827) (1,330) (2,186) (2,279) (2,419) Direct taxes paid (1,936) (2,475) (1,926) (4,256) (6,097) (7,659) Cash Flow from Operations 17,512 16,929 16,555 20,678 30,750 38,964 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (27,946) (26,640) (27,732) (3,002) (14,500) (16,500) (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments 2,431 4,335 3,366 (1,287) - - (Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and adv. (4,239) (8,623) (102) 418 - - Other income 508 503 1,364 2,266 2,359 2,499 Cash Flow from Investing (29,245) (30,426) (23,103) (1,606) (12,141) (14,001) Issue of Equity 5,262 1,682 15,165 1,534 - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans 10,545 17,652 16,514 (15,000) (20,000) (20,000) Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (3,274) - (1,908) (2,219) (2,439) (2,787) Others (1,479) (3,301) (4,954) 773 (443) (418) Financing Cash Flow from Financing 11,054 16,033 24,817 (14,913) (22,882) (23,206) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (679) 2,537 18,268 4,160 (4,273) 1,757 Opening Cash balances 2,616 1,937 4,474 22,742 26,902 22,629 Closing Cash balances 1,937 4,474 22,742 26,902 22,629 24,386 May 7, 2010 8
  • 9. RIL-RNRL | Event Update Key Ratios Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Valuation Ratios (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 28.0 17.3 22.6 13.8 14.9 11.8 P/CEPS 19.9 13.8 16.4 9.5 9.7 8.1 P/BV 5.0 4.0 2.8 2.3 2.1 1.8 Dividend yield (%) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 EV/Sales 3.3 2.8 2.6 1.8 1.5 1.4 EV/EBITDA 18.4 16.6 16.7 12.1 8.6 6.9 EV/Total Assets 2.8 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) 36.9 45.2 45.8 48.6 69.5 87.3 EPS (fully diluted) 36.9 45.2 45.8 48.6 69.5 87.3 Cash EPS 51.9 75.0 63.1 108.4 106.4 126.9 DPS 4.8 5.5 6.4 7.0 8.0 9.2 Book Value 209 261 371 443 504 582 Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 13.3 11.8 8.4 8.0 11.4 13.8 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 16.3 16.4 13.2 12.5 14.7 15.6 ROE 20.3 19.9 14.5 11.9 14.7 16.1 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 Inventory / Sales (days) 36.6 42.0 47.4 41.8 44.6 45.8 Receivables (days) 13.1 13.2 13.2 12.5 15.2 15.9 Payables (days) 60.5 66.6 84.5 72.7 65.7 68.2 WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 26.1 41.4 20.9 5.7 15.7 16.5 Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 Net debt to EBITDA 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest) 12.4 16.7 9.8 9.7 10.5 17.1 May 7, 2010 9
  • 10. RIL-RNRL Disclaimer This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Disclosure of Interest Statement RIL RNRL 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes Yes 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock Yes No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
  • 11. RIL-RNRL Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical sarabjit@angeltrade.com Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com Anand Shah FMCG , Media anand.shah@angeltrade.com Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com Puneet Bambha Capital Goods, Engineering puneet.bambha@angeltrade.com Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping paramv.desai@angeltrade.com Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com Viraj Nadkarni Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com Paresh Jain Metals & Mining pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com Amit Rane Banking amitn.rane@angeltrade.com Rahul Jain IT, Telecom rahul.j@angeltrade.com Jai Sharda Mid-cap jai.sharda@angeltrade.com Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) amit.vora@angeltrade.com V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com Aniruddha Mate Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com Shreya Gaunekar Research Associate (Automobile) shreyap.gaunekar@angeltrade.com Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com Chitrangda Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com Vibha Salvi Research Associate (IT, Telecom) vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) pooja.j@angeltrade.com Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com Derivatives: Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com Sandeep Patil Jr. Derivative Analyst patil.sandeep@angeltrade.com Institutional Sales Team: Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales mayuresh.joshi@angeltrade.com Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com Nitesh Jalan Sr. Manager niteshk.jalan@angeltrade.com Pranav Modi Sr. Manager pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com Sandeep Jangir Sr. Manager sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com Ganesh Iyer Sr. Manager ganeshb.Iyer@angeltrade.com Jay Harsora Sr. Dealer jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com Meenakshi Chavan Dealer meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com Gaurang Tisani Dealer gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com Production Team: Bharathi Shetty Research Editor bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com Dharmil Adhyaru Assistant Research Editor dharmil.adhyaru@angeltrade.com Bharat Patil Production bharat.patil@angeltrade.com Dilip Patel Production dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302