4. Day 5
# Time (min) Topic
1 120 Risk
2 90 Procurement
3 120 Project
4
5. Definitions
RISK - an occurrence that may affect the project for good or bad.
UNCERTAINTY - the absence of any information related to a desired outcome.
RISK APPETITE - the degree of uncertainty an entity is willing to accept in anticipation of a
reward
RISK TOLERANCES - the degree, amount, or volume of risk that an organization or
individual will withstand
RISK THRESHOLD - a measure of uncertainty or impact at which a stakeholder may have
an interest
CONTINGENCY RESERVES - time or money added to the plan to handle “known
unknowns”
MANAGEMENT RESERVES - time or money added to the plan to handle “unknown
unknowns”
5
6. Project Risk Management Objectives
Increase the probability & impact of opportunities
Decrease the probability & impact of threats
Simple & Clear-cut goals!
6
7. Why is Risk Management Necessary?
Projects are:
New, Unique
Under Time Pressures
Uncertain
Under Budget Constraints
7
8. Six Step Approach to Handling
Project Risk
1. Make a plan
2. Identify – Create a comprehensive list of risks
3. Screen or Qualify risks
4. Analyze only the screened risks and the overall project
5. Plan individual responses
6. Monitor the risks that have response plans and execute the responses.
8
9. Knowledge Area
Project Management Process Groups
Initiating Planning Executing Controlling Closing
11. Project Risk
Management
11.1 Plan Risk Management
11.2 Identify Risks
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
11.6
Implement
Risk
Responses
11.7 Monitor Risks
Plan Risk Management Process
9
11. Example Set of Risk Categories
Technical/Quality/Performance
Unproven or complex technology
Expected changes (standards, technology)
Project Management
Poor allocation of time and resources
Inadequate project plan quality
Organizational
Inconsistent objectives (scope, cost, time)
Lack of prioritization
Inadequacy/Interruption of funding
Resource conflicts
External
Shifting legal, regulatory, environmental requirements
Labor issues
Force Majeure (natural disasters, war, LOTTO)
11
12. 11.1 Plan Risk Management Facts
Fact:
The Risk Management Plan does not address responses to
individual risks – that is done in the Risk Response Plan.
Fact:
Organizational assets are improved by lessons learned
updates.
Fact: Good Risk Management depends on good communications.
12
19. Risk Types
Business
Normal risk of doing business. Includes threats and
opportunities.
Threat Risk that presents a possible loss.
Opportunity Risk that presents a possible gain.
Pure (Insurable) Risk Risk that presents a possible loss & no possible gain!
Known Risk
Risks that were identified. Can be handled in a variety of
ways, including contingency reserve
Unknown Risk
Risks that were not identified
These can not be handled proactively
It is prudent to allocate management reserves for these
risks
19
20. Initiate Risk Register
Identify Risks Perform Risk Analysis Plan Risk Responses Control Risks
# Category Risk
Potential
Result
Defined
By
Date Impact Prob Score
Qualtve
Impact
Risk
Strat
Notes Owner Status Date Notes
1 Tech
IT
Resource
Availabilit
y
Unable to
meet
project
schedule
Brian 15-Jun
2 Contracts
Project
contract
negotiate
Inability to
complete
project
goals
Wendy
22-
Jun
3 Cost
Scope
Creep
Project
Budget
Overrun
Jeff
30-
Jun
Note: Register Updates in Amber
20
21. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Process
Knowledge Area
Project Management Process Groups
Initiating Planning Executing Controlling Closing
11. Project Risk
Management
11.1 Plan Risk Management
11.2 Identify Risks
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
11.6
Implement
Risk
Responses
11.7 Monitor Risks
21
23. 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk
Analysis Definitions
EVENT – Something that happens, an occurrence, an outcome.
PROBABILITY – How likely the event is to occur?
IMPACT – The event’s impact on objectives should it occur.
“POP QUIZ”
Project Risk is greatest in the _____ phase of the project & why?
Amount at stake is greater in the _____ phase of the project & why?
23
24. 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk
Analysis Commentary
QUALITATIVE approach expresses probability and/or impact using an
ordinal rating system to denote order.
Adjectives: high, medium, low
Colors: red, yellow, green
Ranking 1-10
Qualitative Approach: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly
Good – it’s fast and easy to administer & understand
Bad – it’s subjective, “invites” bias
Ugly – it requires definitions, rules, standards, and process
24
25. Example of Ordinal Scale
Rank Probability Impact
High
Risk event is very likely to occur,
high probability
If risk occurs, a significant impact to
cost, schedule, quality, or customer
satisfaction will occur
Medium
Risk event is likely to occur,
medium probability
If risk event occurs, a moderate
impact to cost, schedule, quality or
customer satisfaction will occur
Low
Risk event is unlikely to occur,
low probability
If risk event occurs, a small impact to
cost, schedule, quality, or customer
satisfaction will occur
25
26. Update Risk Register
Identify Risks Perform Risk Analysis Plan Risk Responses Control Risks
# Category Risk
Potential
Result
Defined
By
Date Impact Prob Score
Qualtve
Impact
Risk
Strat
Notes Owner Status Date Notes
1 Tech
IT
Resource
Availabilit
y
Unable to
meet
project
schedule
Brian 15-Jun
Mod
impact to
sched
2 Contracts
Project
contract
negotiate
Inability to
complete
project
goals
Wendy
22-
Jun
Mod
impact to
goals
3 Cost
Scope
Creep
Project
Budget
Overrun
Jeff
30-
Jun
Signif
impact to
cost
Note: Register Updates in Amber
26
27. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Knowledge Area
Project Management Process Groups
Initiating Planning Executing Controlling Closing
11. Project Risk
Management
11.1 Plan Risk Management
11.2 Identify Risks
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
11.6
Implement
Risk
Responses
11.7 Monitor Risks
27
29. 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk
Analysis
QUANTITATIVE risk analysis is a numerical analysis of the
probability and/or impact of the highest risks. e.g.:
80% probability of occurrence
$10,000 impact or three week delay
Helps to determine the most critical risks
Less subjective than qualitative
More time consuming; requires estimation
Substantially more valuable in developing risk response
strategies and reserves
29
30. The probability of Task E starting on time decreases as the
number of parallel predecessors increases.
Task A
Start
Task B
Task C
Task D
Task E
Finish
Sensitivity Analysis
Shows which risks have the most impact.
30
31. Risk Probability of X Impact = Expected Value
Event Occurrence
1 10% $500,000 overrun $50,000
10 week delay 1 week delay
2 50% $100,000 overrun $50,000
16 week delay 8 week delay
3 75% $10,000 overrun $7,500
2 week delay 1.5 week delay
EMV = Probability x Impact
Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Analysis
31
32. Probability x Outcome = EMV
Aggressive Uncertain P = .20 +100,000 = + $20,000
Schedule Outcome
(EMV = $4,000)
Decision
P = .80 x - $20,000 = - $16,000
Uncertain P = .30 x - $20,000 = - $6,000
Outcome
Conservative
Schedule
(EMV = $1,000)
P = .70 x + $10,000 = + $7,000
X
x
Decision Tree Example
32
34. Identify Risks Perform Risk Analysis Plan Risk Responses Control Risks
# Category Risk
Potential
Result
Defined
By
Date Impact Prob Score
Qualtve
Impact
Risk
Strat
Notes Owner Status Date Notes
1 Tech
IT
Resource
Availability
Unable to
meet
project
schedule
Brian
15-
Jun
0.4 Y 0.6 0.24 Y
Mod
impact to
sched
2 Contracts
Project
contract
negotiate
Inability to
complete
project
goals
Wendy
22-
Jun
0.3 M 0.9 0.27 M
Mod
impact to
goals
3 Cost
Scope
Creep
Project
Budget
Overrun
Jeff
30-
Jun
0.8 M 0.7 0.56 M
Signif
impact to
cost
Note: Register Updates in Amber
Update Risk Register
34
35. Plan Risk Responses Process
Knowledge Area
Project Management Process Groups
Initiating Planning Executing Controlling Closing
11. Project Risk
Management
11.1 Plan Risk Management
11.2 Identify Risks
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
11.6
Implement
Risk
Responses
11.7 Monitor Risks
35
37. Secondary and Residual Risks
Secondary Risks
Risks that arise as a direct result of implementing a risk response.
Example: Request new project resources to replace poor performers –
what can happen?
Residual Risks
Risks that remain after risk responses have been implemented.
Example: You execute a risk response strategy for a project during
hurricane season but a hurricane may still occur.
37
39. Avoidance:
Move data center
Secondary Risk: longer response times
Transference:
Insurance is only monetary it wont keep the data center up
Outsource the data center & hold the contractor responsible
Residual Risk: Outsourcer’s disaster recovery plan does not work
Mitigation:
Create disaster recovery plans (e.g.: spare hardware for the most critical elements
of the data center, or backup data center located elsewhere)
Acceptance:
Passive: Do nothing now. Develop a workaround on the fly if it happens.
Active: Do nothing now but have a contingency plan and the funding to implement it
Situation: Company’s data center is in a hurricane zone.
Risk: Loss of data center after major storm.
Options:
Strategies for Negative Risks (Threats)
39
40. Exploit:
Share:
Enhance:
Accept:
Situation: Define a situation
Risk: Define Positive Risks (Opportunities)
Options: Think about it - what are they?
Strategies for Positive Risks or Opportunities
Homework / Self Study
40
41. Update Risk Register
Identify Risks Perform Risk Analysis Plan Risk Responses Control Risks
# Category Risk
Potential
Result
Defined
By
Date Impact Prob Score
Qualtve
Impact
Risk
Strat
Notes Owner Status Date Notes
1 Tech
IT
Resource
Availability
Unable to
meet
project
schedule
Brian
15-
Jun
0.4 Y 0.6 0.24 Y
Mod
impact to
sched
Avoid,
extend
sched
With
Apprvd
Sponsor
Chg
Rqst
PM
Jeff
2 Contracts
Project
contract
negotiate
Inability to
complete
project
goals
Wendy
22-
Jun
0.3 M 0.9 0.27 M
Mod
impact to
goals
Transf
er risk
with
contrct
Fixed
Price
Cont
Limits
Addtl
Risk
PM
Jeff
3 Cost
Scope
Creep
Project
Budget
Overrun
Jeff
30-
Jun
0.8 M 0.7 0.56 M
Signf
impact to
cost
Accept
use
Cont
Resrv
With
Apprvd
Sponsor
Chg
Rqst
PM
Jeff
Note: Register Updates in Amber
41
42. Control Risks Process
Knowledge Area
Project Management Process Groups
Initiating Planning Executing Controlling Closing
11. Project Risk
Management
11.1 Plan Risk Management
11.2 Identify Risks
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
11.6
Implement
Risk
Responses
11.7 Monitor Risks
42
46. Update Risk Register
Identify Risks Perform Risk Analysis Plan Risk Responses Control Risks
# Category Risk
Potential
Result
Defined
By
Date Impact Prob Score
Qualtve
Impact
Risk
Strat
Notes Owner Status Date Notes
1 Tech
IT
Resource
Availability
Unable to
meet
project
schedule
Brian
15-
Jun
0.4 Y 0.6 0.24 Y
Mod
impact to
sched
Avoid,
extend
sched
With
Apprvd
Sponsor
Chg
Rqst
PM
Jeff
Projct
on
sched
Risk
Closed
31 -
Oct
Tech
Tasks
Cmplt
2 Contracts
Project
contract
negotiate
Inability to
complete
project
goals
Wendy
22-
Jun
0.3 M 0.9 0.27 M
Mod
impact to
goals
Transf
er risk
with
contrct
Fixed
Price
Cont
Limits
Addtl
Risk
PM
Jeff
Cont
Cmplt
Risk
Closed
16 -
Aug
Cont
Cmplt
3 Cost
Scope
Creep
Project
Budget
Overrun
Jeff
30-
Jun
0.8 M 0.7 0.56 M
Signf
impact to
cost
Accept
use
Cont
Resrv
With
Apprvd
Sponsor
Chg
Rqst
PM
Jeff
No
Chg
25 -
Nov
Proj
within
revised
budget
Note: Register Updates in Amber
46
47. Risk Fact Review
Risk The most important item to cover at team meetings.
Project Risk
Response Audits
Risk auditors examine and document the effectiveness of the risk response in
avoiding, transferring, or mitigating risk occurrence as well as the effectiveness of
the risk owner. Done throughout project life cycle.
Earned Value
Analysis
Used for monitoring overall project performance against a baseline plan.
Deviations from the project baseline may be risk triggers.
Contingency
Reserves
Time and money for known unknowns.
Added on top of the estimate.
Made part of the cost baseline.
Management
Reserves
Time and money for unknown unknowns.
Added on top of the estimate.
Made part of the project budget, not the baseline.
Some organizations have policies on management reserves.
Fallback Plans A plan of action if contingency plans are not effective. “Plan C”
Workarounds
Unplanned responses to emerging project risks that were previously accepted
(passively) or unidentified. Must be documented and incorporated into the project
plan and risk response plan.
47
48. When should risk management first take place?
When is corrective action most costly?
When is “scope” risk highest?
When is “cost” risk highest?
Are product defects a project risk?
Who is responsible for risk?
Who is accountable for risk?
Risk Question Review
48
51. Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) -
Sample
IT Project
Business
Competitors
Suppliers
Cash flow
Technical
Hardware
Software
Network
Organizational
Executive
support
User support
Team support
Project
Management
Estimates
Communication
Resources
51
57. Initiate Risk Register
Identify Risks Perform Risk Analysis Plan Risk Responses Control Risks
# Category Risk
Potential
Result
Defined
By
Date Impact Prob Score
Qualtve
Impact
Risk
Strat
Notes Owner Status Date Notes
1 Tech
IT
Resource
Availabilit
y
Unable to
meet
project
schedule
Brian 15-Jun
2 Contracts
Project
contract
negotiate
Inability to
complete
project
goals
Wendy
22-
Jun
3 Cost
Scope
Creep
Project
Budget
Overrun
Jeff
30-
Jun
Note: Register Updates in Amber
57
58. Update Risk Register
Identify Risks Perform Risk Analysis Plan Risk Responses Control Risks
# Category Risk
Potential
Result
Defined
By
Date Impact Prob Score
Qualtve
Impact
Risk
Strat
Notes Owner Status Date Notes
1 Tech
IT
Resource
Availabilit
y
Unable to
meet
project
schedule
Brian 15-Jun
Mod
impact to
sched
2 Contracts
Project
contract
negotiate
Inability to
complete
project
goals
Wendy
22-
Jun
Mod
impact to
goals
3 Cost
Scope
Creep
Project
Budget
Overrun
Jeff
30-
Jun
Signif
impact to
cost
Note: Register Updates in Amber
58
59. Identify Risks Perform Risk Analysis Plan Risk Responses Control Risks
# Category Risk
Potential
Result
Defined
By
Date Impact Prob Score
Qualtve
Impact
Risk
Strat
Notes Owner Status Date Notes
1 Tech
IT
Resource
Availability
Unable to
meet
project
schedule
Brian
15-
Jun
0.4 Y 0.6 0.24 Y
Mod
impact to
sched
2 Contracts
Project
contract
negotiate
Inability to
complete
project
goals
Wendy
22-
Jun
0.3 M 0.9 0.27 M
Mod
impact to
goals
3 Cost
Scope
Creep
Project
Budget
Overrun
Jeff
30-
Jun
0.8 M 0.7 0.56 M
Signif
impact to
cost
Note: Register Updates in Amber
Update Risk Register
59
60. Update Risk Register
Identify Risks Perform Risk Analysis Plan Risk Responses Control Risks
# Category Risk
Potential
Result
Defined
By
Date Impact Prob Score
Qualtve
Impact
Risk
Strat
Notes Owner Status Date Notes
1 Tech
IT
Resource
Availability
Unable to
meet
project
schedule
Brian
15-
Jun
0.4 Y 0.6 0.24 Y
Mod
impact to
sched
Avoid,
extend
sched
With
Apprvd
Sponsor
Chg
Rqst
PM
Jeff
2 Contracts
Project
contract
negotiate
Inability to
complete
project
goals
Wendy
22-
Jun
0.3 M 0.9 0.27 M
Mod
impact to
goals
Transf
er risk
with
contrct
Fixed
Price
Cont
Limits
Addtl
Risk
PM
Jeff
3 Cost
Scope
Creep
Project
Budget
Overrun
Jeff
30-
Jun
0.8 M 0.7 0.56 M
Signf
impact to
cost
Accept
use
Cont
Resrv
With
Apprvd
Sponsor
Chg
Rqst
PM
Jeff
Note: Register Updates in Amber
60
61. Update Risk Register
Identify Risks Perform Risk Analysis Plan Risk Responses Control Risks
# Category Risk
Potential
Result
Defined
By
Date Impact Prob Score
Qualtve
Impact
Risk
Strat
Notes Owner Status Date Notes
1 Tech
IT
Resource
Availability
Unable to
meet
project
schedule
Brian
15-
Jun
0.4 Y 0.6 0.24 Y
Mod
impact to
sched
Avoid,
extend
sched
With
Apprvd
Sponsor
Chg
Rqst
PM
Jeff
Projct
on
sched
Risk
Closed
31 -
Oct
Tech
Tasks
Cmplt
2 Contracts
Project
contract
negotiate
Inability to
complete
project
goals
Wendy
22-
Jun
0.3 M 0.9 0.27 M
Mod
impact to
goals
Transf
er risk
with
contrct
Fixed
Price
Cont
Limits
Addtl
Risk
PM
Jeff
Cont
Cmplt
Risk
Closed
16 -
Aug
Cont
Cmplt
3 Cost
Scope
Creep
Project
Budget
Overrun
Jeff
30-
Jun
0.8 M 0.7 0.56 M
Signf
impact to
cost
Accept
use
Cont
Resrv
With
Apprvd
Sponsor
Chg
Rqst
PM
Jeff
No
Chg
25 -
Nov
Proj
within
revised
budget
Note: Register Updates in Amber
61
62. 0. Introduction
1. Plan Procurement Management
2. Conduct Procurements
3. Control Procurements
62
63. Centralized Contracting:
Decentralized Contracting:
PM Roles:
Nondisclosure Agreement
Special Provisions:
Assignment:
Dispute resolution:
Indemnification التعويض:
Breach :
Material Breach :
Intellectual Property:
Time is of the essence:
Waiver:
Privity :
Non competitive Procurement:
Seller Proposals:
Bidder Conferences:
Proposal Evaluation Techniques :
Independent Estimate :
Advertisement:
63
Terms
Contract Change Control System:
Procurement Performance Review:
Payment System:
Claims Administration:
Records Management System:
Procurement audits:
64. Contract Types
1- Fixed Price (FP)
1.1 Firm Fixed Price (FFP):
1.2 Fixed Price Incentive Fee (FPIF):
1.3 Fixed Price Economic Price Adjustment (FP-EPA)
2- Cost Reimbursable Contracts (CR)
2.1 Cost Plus Fixed Fee (CPFF):
2.2 Cost Plus Incentive Fee (CPIF):
2.3 Cost Plus Award Fee (CPAF)
3- Time and Material Contracts (T&M)
64
66. TT Make-or-Buy Analysis:
Reasons for Making:
• Need of direct control over the product
• Intellectual property concerns
• Cost considerations
• You have idle plant or workforce
Reasons for Buying:
• Lack of technical experience
• Supplier's expertise on technical area
• Cost considerations
• Brand preferences
66
67. O Procurement Management Plan:
• Types of contract to be used
• Risk issues that need to be transferred or mitigated
• Required performance bonds and insurance
• Constrains and assumptions that could affect procurement
• Time schedules and long lead times
• Prequalified sellers
O Source Selection Criteria:
• Financial stability
• Understanding needs
• Technical ability
• Price / lifecycle cost
• Past performance
• Ability to finish on time
67
68. O Procurement Statement of Work:
Describes the work the seller is required to do. It must be clear & complete
Procurement Statement of Work Types:
1. Performance: What the final product should be able to accomplish
مثال
:
يعيش مبنى
100
سنة
–
ل سرعتها تصل سيارة
300
كم
/
س
2. Functional: Convey the end purpose / result
مثال
:
مبنى
30
دور
–
يسع مبنى
250
موظف
–
تنقل حافلة
65
راكب
3. Design: Convey precisely what work is to be done
مثال
:
المخططات و المواصفات و بالتصميم مبنى
Note: Procurement statement of work can include drawings, specs, wording,
quantities, quality level, work location, … etc.
68
69. O Procurement Documents:
Request for Proposal (RFP):
Invitation for bidding (IFB):
Request for Quotation (RFQ):
Other documents:
• Terms & Conditions
• Procurement statement of work
• Instructions for sellers
69
74. 1. For Fixed Price Contract:
• Seller may cut scope or quality
• Seller may overpriced change orders
• check scope misunderstanding
2. For Time & Material Contract:
• Provide day-to-day direction to seller
• Be careful that project length not extended
• No. of hours spent in work is reasonable
3. For Cost Reimbursable Contracts:
• Audit each invoice
• ensure that all costs are applicable and chargeable to your
project.
• Seller may bring less experienced resources
• verify that work is progressing efficiently
74
75. Notes:
• Closing procurements involves finalizing open claims, updating records to
reflect final results, and archiving such information for future use.
• Procurements are closed when completed or terminated.
• Administrative closure (close project or phase) differs from procurement
closure. There may be many procurements in one project.
• All procurements must be closed before closing the project.
• Procurement closing activities:
• product verification, procurement audit
• settlement of all negotiations and final payments
• archiving procurement documents such as contract, changes, submittals,
reports, inspection reports, …etc.
75
Remember what Rita says: up to 90% of threats identified in the risk mgmt process can be eliminated – wow!!!
A good risk = an opportunity.
A bad risk = a threat.
Contingency reserve - This is your fund for “known-unknowns“.
That means you’ve already identified the risk; you just don’t know how much it will impact your project.
This can be estimated based on the sum of all of your risks’ expected values.
Management reserve - This is for the “unknown-unknowns“.
Basically, you didn’t even identify the risk until it has occurred.
This may be derived from using percentage of the overall project budget.
Positive events = opportunities
Negative events = threats
Examples of Opportunities:
“A” team (i.e. the best) resources are assigned to your project
Conservative cost estimates are REALLY conservative
Excess hardware is found!
Examples of Threats:
“D” team (i.e. the worst) resources are assigned to your project
Cost estimates are not realistic and cannot cover actual costs
Scope creep!
This is time to emphasize that even on a moderately-sized project there are many risks.
Some are significant and others are not.
While it is important to address Risk, a PM could blow his funding and spend all our time chasing down all the uncertainties.
By the way, over-zealous risk management is also a risk.
This slide presents an algorithm that will allow project management to cover many risks and, more importantly, focus attention and recourses on the ones that have the most effect on project success.
A Six Step Approach to Handling Project Risk is a pre-introduction to the six risk processes.
Be aware of the progression of Identifying, Qualifying, Quantifying and Response Planning of risks.
The goal is to reduce the number of Risks considered so that you can investigate the remainder in greater detail.
Reiterate standard PMI format:
Inputs, Tools & Techniques, Outputs
You need to know all of these
Also know that the outputs of some processes become the inputs of others
A typical test question: which of these is NOT an input to Plan Risk Management.
Plan Risk Mgmt tells the stakeholders how risk will be managed. We are building a plan, to build a plan.
Here are some Risk Category Examples … what others might you consider?
Many risks can impact a project … including the possibility that your #1 resource hits LOTTO and leaves the project:
Potential impact: HIGH
Potential probability: LOW
Should this be a major area of project focus: PROBABLY NOT
Possible test question: what output of Plan Risk Management is an input for Identify Risks?
Answer: Risk Management Plan
From Rita’s book: when asked who should be involved in risk management, what’s the answer?
EVERYONE, the more people the more perspectives you’ll get to identify threats and opportunities.
Possible test question: which of these is not a type of risk (from above)?
Management Reserve:
is used to manage unknown risks or unknown unknowns
Is not included in the baseline costs and often requires a change request
May be estimated as a percentage of project budget
Contingency reserve
is used to manage known unknowns
You already identified the risk, but you just don’t know how much it will impact your project.
this can be estimated based on the sum of all of your risks’ expected values.
Potential test question: what output of the Identify Risks process is an input to the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process?
Answer: Risk Register.
Remember:
Risk mgmt is expensive
not because PMs make too much
but because it takes time and $$$ to complete risk mgmt
Therefore we want to qualify (i.e. reduce) risks and only focus on those most likely to occur w/greatest impact!!!
Project Risk is greatest in the early/planning phase of the project because… there are many unknowns.
Amount at stake is greater in the closeout phase of the project because… there is little, if any, time to recover.
Instructor can draw a sample Probability-Impact matrix to demonstrate how to rank risks qualitatively
And to show how high probability, high impact risks should be attended to first …
Reiterate standard PMI format:
Inputs, Tools & Techniques, Outputs
You need to know all of these
Also know that the outputs of some processes become the inputs of others
A typical test question: which if these is NOT an input to Plan Risk Management.
Summarize where we are at this step, we:
developed our risk plan
identified our risks
qualified them
Now we’re going to further analyze, measure the potential impact from them
Reiterate standard PMI format:
Inputs, Tools & Techniques, Outputs
You need to know all of these
Also know that the outputs of some processes become the inputs of others
A typical test question: which if these is NOT an input to Plan Risk Management.
The positive outcomes represent opportunities: $100,000 bonus (e.g. for meeting the schedule)
The negative outcomes represent threats: $20,000 penalty (e.g. for missing the schedule)
An additional (airline fee) exercise is available on page 390 in Rita’s book.
Notice that the value for IMPACT has been normalized into a value that can be mathematically combined with the probability of each risk, ina consistent manner, to develop a Risk Score.
Present scenario to class and ask for responses
After a few minutes show next slide for answers.
Similar to example for threats – do for homework, self study.
Reiterate standard PMI format:
Inputs, Tools & Techniques, Outputs
You need to know all of these
Also know that the outputs of some processes become the inputs of others
A typical test question: which if these is NOT an input to Plan Risk Management.
Note: new risks can still be identified here, although it’s not the primary phase to identify them
Note: the risk register is an input and out to this process … could be a potential test question
A review of definitions to know for the test
Answers:
When should risk management first take place? – Project Planning
When is corrective action most costly? – At the end/closeout phase
When is “scope” risk highest? – At project start
When is “cost” risk highest? – At project end
Are product defects a project risk? – Yes, known unknowns.
Who is responsible for risk? – Everyone.
Who is accountable for risk? – The Project Manager.
120
Reiterate standard PMI format:
Inputs, Tools & Techniques, Outputs
You need to know all of these
Also know that the outputs of some processes become the inputs of others
A typical test question: which if these is NOT an input to Plan Risk Management.
Notice that the value for IMPACT has been normalized into a value that can be mathematically combined with the probability of each risk, ina consistent manner, to develop a Risk Score.
Reiterate standard PMI format:
Inputs, Tools & Techniques, Outputs
You need to know all of these
Also know that the outputs of some processes become the inputs of others
A typical test question: which if these is NOT an input to Plan Risk Management.