Telecom trends 2011 & beyond Mobile NL 2011 - Telecompaper 15 June 2011

1. Jeanine van der Vlist - Managing Director Alcatel-Lucent
15 juni 2011 – Mobiel NL
Jeanine van der Vlist - Managing Director Alcatel-Lucent
1
15 juni 2011 – Mobiel NL COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

2. ALWAYS ON, ALL THE TIME
FIXED BROADBAND WIRELESS SMARTPHONES
CONNECTIONS BASE STATIONS AND TABLETS
4.2 M 289M users
11B apps downloaded
3.6 M
521 M
10 M users
340 M
2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010
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3. AN HOUR IS A LONG TIME IN TELECOM
5400 new fixed
broadband
connections
installed
27 terabytes of 53,425 new
traffic mobile smartphones
consumed activated
Globally, IP
traffic will
increase by
~11 terabytes
each and
every hour
~ 590 terabytes
2,842,466
of new storage
applications
capacity
downloaded
shipped
81 base
stations
deployed
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4. 2011 AND BEYOND - TRENDS
By 2014, 50% of mobile data traffic will be video
Between 2012 and 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs
Wireless All Around World and Internet going mobile
43% of all customer issues: 2 or more support calls
Customer Experience
Transformation Ever demanding customers
From 10.9B app downloads in 2009 to 24.9B in 2011
Application And
Content Value Chain Content is king
40% of businesses will buy ICT on the cloud in 2-5 years
Cloud will be a $148.8 market in 2014
Cloud Everything in the Cloud
12 broadband expansion projects in Asia, several in Latin America, plus Europe and US
Critical National
Infrastructure Crucial to economic growth and security
M2M estimated at 62M machines/devices in 2010 grows to 2.1B in 2020
Internet Of Things Machine-to-machine opportunity
Source: Bell Labs, Juniper Research, Stratecast, Strategy Analytics, ITU, IDC
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5. DEVICE AND OPPORTUNITY EXPLOSION
WNG analysis of device usage in operator network M2M Usage in 2020
100
80
Percentage of Subs
60
40
All Devices
IPhone
20 Blackberry
Data card
Nexus One
0
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Mbytes
• M2M device connections will grow from 62 million in
2010 to 2.1 billion devices (Analysys Mason)
10 BBs = 1 iPhone • 30 times as many transactions between machines as
10 iPhones = 1 Datacard humans in 2020 (Forrester Research)
~2-3 iPhones = 1 iPad
New devices driving exponential increase in consumption
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6. REALITY CHALLENGES THE VIDEO STAR(S)
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7. SPEED IDEAS
EST MKT
CATEGORY SPEED PLAYERS
VALUE ($)
MP3 1976 306 B
Apple
Internet search 1998 184 B
Storage and Compute 1994 83 B
Social media 2004 50 B $717 Billion
= 90% of
E-commerce 1998 40 B
NL GDP
Billing 1998 18 B
Video content 1997 12 B
Micro blogging 2007 8B
IP Telephony 2003 8B
Location-based services 2009 1B
Professional social networking 2003 3B
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8. ACTIVITY AND REVENUE DICHOTOMY
287 Megabytes The wireless revenue challenge
per user/per day Global Traffic
(Petabytes) 100%
63,904 80
60
49,919 Voice
40
20,396 Revenue ($B) 20
10,174 1,677 1,777
1,585 Data
0
’07 ’10 ’12 ’14 Traffic Revenue
e.g. AT&T mobile data volumes up 8,000% over four years
split split
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9. THE PROBLEM: REVENUE VERSUS NETWORK COST
Service provider network model
50 1800
45 1600
40
1400
Mb/data plan sub/month
35
1200
$/sub/month
30
1000
25
800
20
A wireless operator makes + 52% CAGR 600
93,750,000 times as 15
much revenue per bit from 400
10
SMS, than a wireline
- 13% CAGR
operator gets from 5 200
delivering a Netflix video
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Bell Labs Analysis
The operator business model is increasingly unsustainable
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10. IS THE ANSWER GREATER BW EFFICIENCY?
Optical Transport WAN wireless technologies
10
9
Spectral efficiency (bits/s/Hz)
8 Infeasible Region
Shannon
7 802.16
bound 4
6 Copper Access Shannon-bound
Peak Data Efficiency (bps/Hz)
5 180
Distance = 500 kmShannon bound
4
140 HSDPA
3 Downstream Rate (Mbps)
2
2
100 1 Crosstalker
1
5 Crosstalkers
0 EV-DO
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
60 35 40
SNR (dB) 24 Crosstalkers
-5 +5 +15
20
Signal-to-Noise Ratio (dB)
1000 2000 3000 4000
Line Length (meters)
Need more spectrum, more ‘channels’ and more application-intelligence
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11. WHAT’s NEXT?
New Generation Wireless New Generation Wireline
910 Mb/s
1000 (4 pairs, 400m)
900 Phantom-on-Phantom
Phantom Mode 3-4
800
Line 4
Attainable bitrate (Mb/s)
700 Line 3
Phantom Mode 1-2 390 Mb/s
600
(2 pairs, 400m)
Line 2
500 Line 1
Bell Labs new radio cube
400
9x the capacity 300
200
Up to: ¼ cost/bit
100
50% TCO savings 0
1 pair 2 pairs Phantom Vectoring 4 pairs 4 pairs + PM
Mode + Vectoring
Simpler, lighter... enabling cloud-like networks
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12. THE FUTURE: MAKING ANTENNAS INVISIBLE
On a façade On a pole On a lamppost In a bus stop
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13. PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER:
A WIN-WIN-WIN PROPOSITION
Application
Enablement
Revenue/sub. business
models
Network cost/sub.
High-leverage
network
technologies
Customer
satisfaction
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14. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
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COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.