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Chris Auricht - Agriculture Productivity Drivers

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Food Nutrition in Eastern and Southern
                 Africa
         Agriculture Productivity Drivers

                  Christopher Auricht
 Australian International Food Security Centre (AIFSC)

            10th September 2012, Nairobi
Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People

1. Agriculture Productivity Drivers
in 1998/99, Based on District Data

      Cattle
      Pigs
      Buffalo




         Characteristics of the region
         Resources
         Population, crops and livestock
3


                            Hunger, Poverty & Productivity
                     Spatial Covariates/Proxies & Analytical Flow

      Terrain,
                          Production          Production                                                Interventions/ Linkage to
    Demography,
                        Environment &         Systems &                                                   Responses      Macro
   Infrastructure,
                         Constraints         Performance                                                                Models
    Admin Units

                                                                  7
                                                        Maize
                                                        Yield
                                                      Potential   6
                                                      t[DM]/ha

                                                                  5


                                                                  4


                                                                  3


                                                                      2
                                                                                                                                40
                                                                      1                                                       30
                                                                                                                            20
                                                                      0                                                   10
                                                                                                                                  Irrigation
                                                                                                                        0
                                                                          100                                                    Threshold
                                                                                     80                               NA       % of Available
                                                                                               60
                                                                                                        40
                                                                          Fertilizer Application Rate        20                  Soil Water
                                                                                                                  0
                                                                                    kg[N]/ha




  Settlements, ports,costs & Diseases Value of Distribution Rainfed
  Slope, travel times markets
Port travel times & PestsAgroecological& Crop Suitability: & Yieldssmall of Welfare Benefits
MarketAdministrativenetworks extent ZonesProductionSystems of of Nutrientsirrigation
 Road, rail, river, ICTCroplandIncidence intensityBorer) Quantity Person
   Elevation
         aspect, drainage
                      & Units
                       Drought RunoffCrop Farming per Rural Management, CC
                         costs        (MaizeYield Responses Distribution scale Removed
                                          & Severity
                                             Stem Profitability
                                                             to Inputs, Aggregate to FPUs
                                                                 Fertilizer Profitability
                                          Wheat
Source: HarvestChoice 2010
Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People

2. Broad directions and drivers
in 1998/99, Based on District Data

      Cattle
      Pigs
      Buffalo




        OPPORTUNITY COSTS of resources
        (especially land) and labour shape farm
        household decision making and evolution of
        systems (Binswanger, Pingali)

        In turn these are influenced by:
        • population, hunger and poverty
        • natural resources and climate
        • technology and science
        • energy
        • markets and trade
        • information and human capital
        • institutions and policies
Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People

Drivers – population, hunger, poverty
in 1998/99, Based on District Data

      Cattle
      Pigs
      Buffalo




        Gradual increase of population for
        centuries, until 1950, then rapid increase; +
        30 percent over past decade (with shocks
        from disease and famine)

        Urbanisation

        Distribution of hunger and poverty (maps)

        Incomes/livelihood portfolios

        Gender
Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People

Driver – natural resources, climate
in 1998/99, Based on District Data

      Cattle
      Pigs
      Buffalo




        Claims of ample resources, but

        Limited water so far exploited

        Degradation

        Closing of quality land frontier

        Rapid deforestation

        Climate change – precipitation,
        temperature; variability/risk)
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Chris Auricht - Agriculture Productivity Drivers

  • 1. Food Nutrition in Eastern and Southern Africa Agriculture Productivity Drivers Christopher Auricht Australian International Food Security Centre (AIFSC) 10th September 2012, Nairobi
  • 2. Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People 1. Agriculture Productivity Drivers in 1998/99, Based on District Data Cattle Pigs Buffalo Characteristics of the region Resources Population, crops and livestock
  • 3. 3 Hunger, Poverty & Productivity Spatial Covariates/Proxies & Analytical Flow Terrain, Production Production Interventions/ Linkage to Demography, Environment & Systems & Responses Macro Infrastructure, Constraints Performance Models Admin Units 7 Maize Yield Potential 6 t[DM]/ha 5 4 3 2 40 1 30 20 0 10 Irrigation 0 100 Threshold 80 NA % of Available 60 40 Fertilizer Application Rate 20 Soil Water 0 kg[N]/ha Settlements, ports,costs & Diseases Value of Distribution Rainfed Slope, travel times markets Port travel times & PestsAgroecological& Crop Suitability: & Yieldssmall of Welfare Benefits MarketAdministrativenetworks extent ZonesProductionSystems of of Nutrientsirrigation Road, rail, river, ICTCroplandIncidence intensityBorer) Quantity Person Elevation aspect, drainage & Units Drought RunoffCrop Farming per Rural Management, CC costs (MaizeYield Responses Distribution scale Removed & Severity Stem Profitability to Inputs, Aggregate to FPUs Fertilizer Profitability Wheat Source: HarvestChoice 2010
  • 4. Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People 2. Broad directions and drivers in 1998/99, Based on District Data Cattle Pigs Buffalo OPPORTUNITY COSTS of resources (especially land) and labour shape farm household decision making and evolution of systems (Binswanger, Pingali) In turn these are influenced by: • population, hunger and poverty • natural resources and climate • technology and science • energy • markets and trade • information and human capital • institutions and policies
  • 5. Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People Drivers – population, hunger, poverty in 1998/99, Based on District Data Cattle Pigs Buffalo Gradual increase of population for centuries, until 1950, then rapid increase; + 30 percent over past decade (with shocks from disease and famine) Urbanisation Distribution of hunger and poverty (maps) Incomes/livelihood portfolios Gender
  • 6. Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People Driver – natural resources, climate in 1998/99, Based on District Data Cattle Pigs Buffalo Claims of ample resources, but Limited water so far exploited Degradation Closing of quality land frontier Rapid deforestation Climate change – precipitation, temperature; variability/risk)
  • 7. Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People Driver – energy in 1998/99, Based on District Data Cattle Pigs Buffalo Limited growth in energy inputs (refer Binswanger, Pingali; McIntyre) Linkages/correlations oil, fertilizer and food prices Intensification requires energy Local/renewable options?
  • 8. Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People Drivers – markets, trade in 1998/99, Based on District Data Cattle Pigs Buffalo Spread of agricultural markets/infrastructure Poor but improving market integration Vertical integration especially in high potential Foreign capital Past focus on exports; growing potential for regional trade
  • 9. Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People Driver – information, human capital in 1998/99, Based on District Data Cattle Pigs Buffalo New knowledge is essential for households to make good decisions on adoption, marketing adjustments, ... (capacity building) Good example, Kenya ...
  • 10. Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People 3. Farming systems - informed interventions in 1998/99, Based on District Data Cattle Pigs Buffalo  Many assessments of African resource management, commodity and agricultural sector, but …  Low productivity and rural food insecurity and poverty persist  Strong differentiation of farming systems and farm-households’ potentials and needs  Understanding farm-household decision making for essential for fostering innovation and accelerating adoption/adjustment (Source: Dixon 2005)