Forests in the Balance: Forests as Providers
 of Ecosystem Services vs. Emissions from
   Deforestation and Forest Degrada...
2
3
Forests inhale and exhale on an annual cycle   4
Forest carbon stocks leaking into the                      5



atmosphere: deforestation




                            ...
6
7




~half of Amazon forests depend upon deep root systems (>8 m) to
 remain physiologically active during seasonal droug...
A drought threshold experiment: 2000-2005   8




Nepstad, et al. 2007 Ecology
9




The drought threshold:


•Large canopy trees are
most vulnerable to
drought


•Lianas and trees more
vulnerable than...
10




Nepstad et al. 2007
11
12
Value of forests to nearby coffee farms                                  13




Coffee near forest (within 1 km):

  • 2x ...
14
15
16




Forest dieback has begun
17
18
Amazon 2030: 55% cleared or degraded; 15-25 B tons C emitted




                         Nepstad et al. 2008 Phil Tran...
19




Nepstad et al. 2006 Cons Biol
REDD alone is not enough.   The world needs                                                                         20



...
A 20-year land agenda                                                                                                     ...
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  1. 1. Forests in the Balance: Forests as Providers of Ecosystem Services vs. Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Daniel Nepstad Chief Program Officer, Environmental Conservation Program June 18, 2009
  2. 2. 2
  3. 3. 3
  4. 4. Forests inhale and exhale on an annual cycle 4
  5. 5. Forest carbon stocks leaking into the 5 atmosphere: deforestation Houghton et al. 2007; Page et al. 2003; Alencar et al. 2006
  6. 6. 6
  7. 7. 7 ~half of Amazon forests depend upon deep root systems (>8 m) to remain physiologically active during seasonal drought, supplying the atmosphere with water vapor Nepstad et al. 1994 Nature
  8. 8. A drought threshold experiment: 2000-2005 8 Nepstad, et al. 2007 Ecology
  9. 9. 9 The drought threshold: •Large canopy trees are most vulnerable to drought •Lianas and trees more vulnerable than palms
  10. 10. 10 Nepstad et al. 2007
  11. 11. 11
  12. 12. 12
  13. 13. Value of forests to nearby coffee farms 13 Coffee near forest (within 1 km): • 2x more bee visits $ • 5x more bee species • 20% higher yields $ Lowerbound value of forest: • $60,000/year (7% of farm revenue) • Equivalent to competing land uses Ricketts et al. 2004. PNAS 13
  14. 14. 14
  15. 15. 15
  16. 16. 16 Forest dieback has begun
  17. 17. 17
  18. 18. 18 Amazon 2030: 55% cleared or degraded; 15-25 B tons C emitted Nepstad et al. 2008 Phil Trans Roy Soc
  19. 19. 19 Nepstad et al. 2006 Cons Biol
  20. 20. REDD alone is not enough. The world needs 20 more food Area of Cattle & Sugar Cane, Brazil 200 180 160 140 Millions of Hectares 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Cattle Pasture 2006 Sugar Cane 2006 Sugar Cane 2020
  21. 21. A 20-year land agenda 21 Could we reduce carbon emissions from land by 3 B tons per year in two decades? 2.5 Carbon emissions from the land 2 3 B ton reduction by 2020 (Billions of Tons per Year) 1.5 1 Deforestation New Forests 0.5 Soil Carbon 0 Net Flux -0.5 -1 -1.5 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year

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