Sugarcane Integration to Other Agricultural Activities

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Presentation of Gerd Spavorek for the "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle"

Apresentação de Gerd Spavorek realizada no "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle"

Date / Data : Novr 11th - 12th 2009/
11 e 12 de novembro de 2009
Place / Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brazil
Event Website / Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop5

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Sugarcane Integration to Other Agricultural Activities

  1. 1. gerd
sparovek
 gerd@usp.br
Umbrella
Project:
 Partners:
Agricultural
Land
Use
and
Expansion
Model
–
Brazil,
 Brazilian
Ministry
of
Agrarian
Development
 ICONE
–
Ins<tute
fro
Interna<onal
Trade
Nego<a<ons
 WWF
–
Brazil
AgLUE‐BR
 Chalmers
University
of
Technology
(Göteborg,
Sweden)
 Sugarcane
integra?on
to
other
agricultural
ac?vi?es

  2. 2. What
do
we
know?
 
close
to
the
mills!
 Sugarcane
is
cul<vated

  3. 3. What
do
we
know?
The
precise
loca<on
of
the
future
+
5
to
10
years
mills!
Numbers:# 370 mills (2007)2007/08:6.2 x 106 ha483 x 106 Ton sugarcane 60% ethanol 40% sugar22 x 109 L ethanol (20% export)30 x 106 Ton sugar
  4. 4. What
do
we
know?
The
impacts
of
the
last
sugarcane
expansion
season
(1996‐2006)

  5. 5. National Agricultural Census 96 and 06Agricultural Production (Municipal) 96 to 07Proxy variables for:   Environment (forests)   Food production (other crops)   Development (Municipal GDP)   LUCC (extensive beef and cattle production) Expansion
1996‐2006
 91%
of
the
analyzed
expansion
 4.8
to
6.1
x
106
ha
(1.3
x
106
ha)

  6. 6. Food proxyOther crops PEA-AM CEA PEA ScEx ScNoExOther crops area 20 19 PEA-NoAM % municipal areaOther crops increase 2 2 % year -1 PEA-AMOther crops area 9 11 CEA % municipal areaOther crops increase 11 8 % year-1 PEA-NoAMOther crops area 4 10 % municipal areaOther crops increase 2 2 % year-1
  7. 7. Extensive Land Use proxy Pastures and Cattle PEA-AM CEA PEA ScEx ScNoEx Pasture area 39 52 PEA-NoAM % municipal area Pasture dif. (2006-1996) -12 -9 % Cattle density 54 73 head km-2 of mun. Cattle head increase -2 0 % year-1 CEA PEA Pasture area 34 37 % municipal area Pasture dif. (2006-1996) 3 1 % Cattle density 23 25 head km-2 of mun. Cattle head increase 2 3 % year-1
  8. 8. What
do
we
know?
The
last
season
(1996‐2006)
is
spa<ally
coincident
with
current
expansion

  9. 9. What
do
we
know?
 

on
pastures.
Cane
will
expand
&
interact Cane

  10. 10. Pasture
 New
mills

  11. 11. What
do
we
conclude?
The
most
important
integra<on
system
is
with
livestock
produc<on!
 
and
that
it….
is
urgent……
has
to
be
large
scale…..
has
to
adapt
to
different
livestock
produc?on
systems…..
will
not
be
adopted
under
regular
expansion
paXerns….

  12. 12. Integra<on:
fuel
&
food
&
local
development
Polos
de
produção
de
energia
&
alimento
&
cidadania
Community
Hubs
for
Energy
and
Food
(CHEF)
 Bioenergy
and
food
produc?on
for
local
 development
in
Brazil:
Inputs
for
policy‐making

  13. 13. Integrated
scenario
 Mills
are
a
poten?al
low
cost
feed
produc?on
facili?es
Complete
ra?on
for
ruminants
is
an
old
technology
(back
to
the
1980s)
widely
 used
before
co‐genera?on
become
an
op?on

  14. 14. Complete
ra<o
for
milk
or
beef
 Complete
ra<on
for
maintanance
 Hydrolyzed bagasse * Hydrolyzed bagasse * Bagasse Bagasse Yeast Yeast Residual sugars (Molasse) Stillage (vinasse) + Filter cake Grain + Minerals, vitamins Minerals, vitamins For
15L
milk
a
day
 or
 Winter
maintenance
(beef
or
milk)
 Beef
ca`le
fe`ering
*
Produc?on
uses
mill’s
process
steam
(bioenergy)

  15. 15. 20
%
 20
%
 Forest
 Forest
 Ra?on
 30%
 Pasture
 80%
 Pasture
 50%
 Other
land
use
 Food
 Soy/biodiesel
 Cane
Original:
extensive
 Integrated
 Mill
+
 Feed
+
 Biodiesel

  16. 16. Feasibility
model:
Mill
 1
million
tons
cane
per
year
on

15,000
ha 
 Ra?on
produc?on
capacity:
40,000
ton
 20,000
tons
for
beef
caXle
termina?on
–
7,500
animals
for
120
days
+
15,000
tons
for
milk
caws
–
1,500
animals
for
365
days
 +
5,000
tons
milk
caws
maintenance
–
1,750
animals
for
90
days
 Investment
(U$):
 
 
 



285,000 
 Supplies
+
Maintenance
(U$/year): 
1,900,000 
 Ra<on
sell
value
(U$/ton):
 
 











62 
 25
%
profit
margin
(U$/year): 



495,000 
 Comparison
of
bagasse
sell
value

(U$/ton): 
 Assumed
in
the
ra?o
calcula?on:
 
21 
 Current
value
in
co‐genera<on*:
 


8
 
 Best
scenario
for
co‐genera?on*:
 
21 
 *
Without

investment
cost
and
transmission
lines
sparovek
et
al.,
2009
 Petrobras
(RJ)
@
180809

  17. 17. Farmers
perspec?ve:
before
and
aier
the
integra<on
 Descrip<on
 Profit
 Area
 Type
 Before
 Aier
 Integrated/Cane
 Technology
 Size
 U$/ha
year
 ha/ha
 Extensive
 low
 Large
 40
 100
 2.95
 Stable
 high
 Large
 130
 220
 2.01
 Diverse
 Medium/high
 Medium
 100
 170
 1.19
 Special
 low
 Small
 240
 370
 1.24
 Strategic
 high
 Small
 1050
 1170
 0.57
 The
two
marked
types
are
the
most
comum
farm
systems
in
the
sugarcane
expansion
region

  18. 18. Agriculture
vs
Animal
produc?on
paradox
 Animal
produc<on
on
pasture
(2005)
 AU
km‐2

Agricultural
produc<on
value
(2005)
 R$
km‐2

  19. 19. Migra?on
of
caXle
farming!

 Animal
produc<on
on
pasture
(2003)
 AU
km‐2


  20. 20. What
do
we
get
with
the
integra?on?
For
sure:
 • Create
an
economic
reason
to
prevent
livestock
produc<on
to
move
 • Keep
a
larger
diversity
in
land‐use
 • Don’t
interrupt
current
economic
op<ons
 • Increase
output
of
food
products
 • Reduce
GHG
emissions
 • Avoid
land
property
concentra<on
 • Re‐invest
regionally
We
may
(producing
both,
biodiesel
and
ethanol
in
integrated
system):
 • Reduce
the
costs
of
integra<on
 • Increase
even
more
the
output
and
diversity
of
food
products
 • Reduce
even
more
GHG
emissions
using
bagasse
to
produce
Biodiesel
 • Amplify
the
opportuni<es
for
small‐holders
supply
oilseed
crops
 • Intensify
oilseed
crop
produc<on
on
land
marginal
for
cane
(more
intense
land
use)


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