Science Forum Day 4 - Marie Badjeck - Adaptation research in fisheries
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Science Forum Day 4 - Marie Badjeck - Adaptation research in fisheries
- 1. Adaptation research in Fisheries: A case study and the road ahead Marie-Caroline Badjeck WorldFish Center Science Week Penang Malaysia Eddie Allison, Tania Mendo, Ndiaga Diop, Gorka Merino, Manuel Barange, Julia Blanchard, Simon Jennings, James Harle, Robert Holmes, Jason Holt, Robert Katikiro, Michael Flitner, Emma Tompkins
- 3. 1- GCM Climate Projections A1B 2050 2 - Hi Res Shelf Seas Physical-Biological models for 20 LME (~60% fish catch) 4 - Bio-economic models of marine commodities 3 - Metabolic-based Fish Biomass estimation Adaptive Capacity + 4 - National Vulnerability Assessments & Participatory scenarios Exposure Sensitivity Potential Impact VULNERABILITY =
- 6. Senegal Scenarios 2050 – Group Consensus Local/Sub-Regional AQUACULTURE MARKET FORCES Intensive Globalisation, Certification Import/Export Extensive “ FOOD SECURITY” “ DEVELOPING” Sub-regional development High sub-regional demand Sub-regional competitiveness Harmonization of fisheries policies Sub-regional food security Regional integration Poverty reduction “ ACCELERATED” “ LOCAL” Accelerated Development Modernization Increase in productivity Foreign investments International cooperation Local Development Rural revolution Rural « Professionalism » Local ressources Local knowledge
- 7. Ghana Scenarios 2050 – Group Consensus Steady Upwelling SOCIO-ECONOMIC CLIMATE CHANGE Regulated Erratic Upwelling Disorderly “ NEW LIFE” “ DO OR DIE” Diversified livelihoods Complex adaptive management Conservation, poverty reduction, reduce conflicts High Risk Fishing Extreme events Ineffective management, Poor integration “ HAPPY DAYS GONE” “ HARMONY” Harmonization of policies Agreement on issues Stakeholder collaboration Regional integration Collapse of artisanal fishery Increased poverty Demand for credit
- 8. West Africa LMEs - Potential change in fisheries production due to CC For RESA1B_2047 Senegal Ghana
- 13. Thank You! And amongst many colleagues particular thanks to: Edward H. Allison (World Fish Center) Manuel Barange and Gorka Merino (Plymouth Marine Laboratory) Emma Thompkins and Tania Mendo (Leeds University and TAFI - University of Tasmania) http://web.pml.ac.uk/quest-fish www.ccafs.cgiar.org
- 15. How DID it work? CLIMATE ECOSYSTEMS FISH PEOPLE Results 1 Results 2 Output, Outcome Impact? Propagation of Uncertainty
- 16. Global: +3.4% 2004 SRESA1B_2047 2005 max ~ 95 Mt 2050 max ~ 98.23 Mt Potential change in fisheries production due to CC SRESA1B_2047 Global: +3.4%
Editor's Notes
- Contributors 7 countries four continents
- So what are the Ways Forward? One step that is already being taken is to develop coupled climate-ocean-fish-people models
- Rango normal entre 10 y 30% Un driver alto y uno muy bajo
- The model captures the transfer of energy from basal resources (primary producers and detritus) to larger benthic and pelagic consumers and its output includes fish abundance, production and catch estimations across a range of fish sizes from 5 to 93 cm and a range of fishing mortality values (0-1). These were equally distributed across all size-classes. For simplicity, we examine changes in the abundance, production and catches of total catch estimation.
- Uncertainty is specific to the approach, tools and data used