So what are the Ways Forward? One step that is already being taken is to develop coupled climate-ocean-fish-people models
Rango normal entre 10 y 30% Un driver alto y uno muy bajo
The model captures the transfer of energy from basal resources (primary producers and detritus) to larger benthic and pelagic consumers and its output includes fish abundance, production and catch estimations across a range of fish sizes from 5 to 93 cm and a range of fishing mortality values (0-1). These were equally distributed across all size-classes. For simplicity, we examine changes in the abundance, production and catches of total catch estimation.
Uncertainty is specific to the approach, tools and data used
Science Forum Day 4 - Marie Badjeck - Adaptation research in fisheries
Adaptation research in Fisheries: A case study and the road ahead Marie-Caroline Badjeck WorldFish Center Science Week Penang Malaysia Eddie Allison, Tania Mendo, Ndiaga Diop, Gorka Merino, Manuel Barange, Julia Blanchard, Simon Jennings, James Harle, Robert Holmes, Jason Holt, Robert Katikiro, Michael Flitner, Emma Tompkins
<ul><li>QUEST_Fish => funded by UK NERC (2007-2010) </li></ul><ul><li>Predicting the potential impacts of climate change on global fish production and estimating the consequences for human society and on specific elements of the fishery system at different scales </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Sustainability science applied’ => providing the theory and tools to understand interactions between humans and their environment (Clark and Dickson 2003) </li></ul>What is Quest_Fish?
1- GCM Climate Projections A1B 2050 2 - Hi Res Shelf Seas Physical-Biological models for 20 LME (~60% fish catch) 4 - Bio-economic models of marine commodities 3 - Metabolic-based Fish Biomass estimation Adaptive Capacity + 4 - National Vulnerability Assessments & Participatory scenarios Exposure Sensitivity Potential Impact VULNERABILITY =
Scenarios to inform adaptation <ul><li>Scenarios => “Overarching goal of understanding how our actions and assumptions today could change the shape of things to come” (Mason 2011) </li></ul><ul><li>What are the possible futures for upwelling fisheries? Estimation are highly uncertain requiring methodologies that go beyond bio-physical models </li></ul><ul><li>Comparing and contrasting the mental construct of the future and modeled changes in productivity => discuss implication, develop planning capacity </li></ul>Shell Vision 2050 ?
Methods - Scenarios to inform adaptation <ul><li>Expert elicitation through survey to identify drivers of change in the past and in the next 40 years in the fisheries and aquaculture sector on Peru, Senegal and Mauritania </li></ul><ul><li>45 experts surveyed => average response rate 35% response rate </li></ul><ul><li>Workshops in Lima and Dakar (March/April 2010) => modified Delphi approach, develop story line for the fisheries sector for 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>Identify policy implications and adaptation strategies, “The future is now” </li></ul>
Senegal Scenarios 2050 – Group Consensus Local/Sub-Regional AQUACULTURE MARKET FORCES Intensive Globalisation, Certification Import/Export Extensive “ FOOD SECURITY” “ DEVELOPING” Sub-regional development High sub-regional demand Sub-regional competitiveness Harmonization of fisheries policies Sub-regional food security Regional integration Poverty reduction “ ACCELERATED” “ LOCAL” Accelerated Development Modernization Increase in productivity Foreign investments International cooperation Local Development Rural revolution Rural « Professionalism » Local ressources Local knowledge
Ghana Scenarios 2050 – Group Consensus Steady Upwelling SOCIO-ECONOMIC CLIMATE CHANGE Regulated Erratic Upwelling Disorderly “ NEW LIFE” “ DO OR DIE” Diversified livelihoods Complex adaptive management Conservation, poverty reduction, reduce conflicts High Risk Fishing Extreme events Ineffective management, Poor integration “ HAPPY DAYS GONE” “ HARMONY” Harmonization of policies Agreement on issues Stakeholder collaboration Regional integration Collapse of artisanal fishery Increased poverty Demand for credit
West Africa LMEs - Potential change in fisheries production due to CC For RESA1B_2047 Senegal Ghana
Some thoughts on the results… <ul><li>Senegal: </li></ul><ul><li>Prioritization of drivers in agreement with model results => CC not a major driver rather diversification into aquaculture </li></ul><ul><li>However development of aquaculture will have to take into account changes in rainfall (especially wet season) and temperature in the interior regions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ghana: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fishing is still a “best bet” for the future if stocks do not decline/collapse before 2050 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>But regional integration (spatial management) will be an even greater issue </li></ul></ul>
Some thoughts on the process... Outcome? <ul><li>Contrasting ‘process’ and ‘output’ approaches of ‘science’ and ‘management’ ( Allison 2002) </li></ul><ul><li>“ Yes, scenarios are very useful for identifying how we perceive issues to be. When there are similarities in our scenarios, then we can start developing strategies that are not only more relevant but are also sub-regional” Ghana participant </li></ul><ul><li>Strengths: methods for strategic planning & space for creative discussion => but documenting process essential </li></ul><ul><li>Identified need to increase and develop competency for the use and interpretation of scenarios by NARS </li></ul>
Some thoughts on the process... Outcome? <ul><li>Uptake of methodologies: </li></ul><ul><li>West African Fisheries Policy Network (REPAO) through their project “Adapting Fishing Policy to Climate Change in West Africa”, funded by IDRC/DFID CCAA </li></ul><ul><li>Link with CRP on Climate Change Agriculture Food Security </li></ul><ul><li>Within WorldFish projects: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ADB Pacific and Climate Change </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Planning the Use of Fish for Food Security in the Solomon Islands </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Aquaculture Futures for Cambodia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ghana: capacity building in scenario planning as part of adaptive management </li></ul></ul>
Thoughts on sustainability science…Outcome? <ul><li>Can we achieve interdisciplinary research when differential knowledge states exist? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Extremely difficult…but still worthwhile! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Modeling of CC impacts on yields in fisheries and aquaculture far behind compared to other sectors => social sciences NEEDS information from natural sciences => QUEST_fish and Cheung et al 2010 first attempts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Managing uncertainty in integrated assessment => “climate change will increased potential catch by 18% under A1B in XX country EEZ” </li></ul></ul>The Economist March 18 th 2010
Thank You! And amongst many colleagues particular thanks to: Edward H. Allison (World Fish Center) Manuel Barange and Gorka Merino (Plymouth Marine Laboratory) Emma Thompkins and Tania Mendo (Leeds University and TAFI - University of Tasmania) http://web.pml.ac.uk/quest-fish www.ccafs.cgiar.org
Methods – Impact of CC to inform adaptation <ul><li>Relative change in fisheries potential from current level (2008) to 2050 in 20 Large Marine Ecosystems (~60% fish catch) under IPCC SRES A1B scenario </li></ul><ul><li>Outputs from physical-ecosystem model (IPSL Climate Model based on POLCOMS-ERSEM and GCOMS) was used to provide the boundary conditions for the shelf sea model </li></ul><ul><li>Information was used to force a size-structured food web model to investigate how future temperature and primary production could modulate future fisheries potential in Economic Exclusive Zones of LMEs </li></ul>
How DID it work? CLIMATE ECOSYSTEMS FISH PEOPLE Results 1 Results 2 Output, Outcome Impact? Propagation of Uncertainty
Global: +3.4% 2004 SRESA1B_2047 2005 max ~ 95 Mt 2050 max ~ 98.23 Mt Potential change in fisheries production due to CC SRESA1B_2047 Global: +3.4%