The document discusses how science can help strengthen projects funded by the Global Environment Facility's International Waters program. It raises three questions: 1) How is science currently involved? 2) Are the problems these projects aim to address actually getting solved? 3) Are these projects addressing all the right issues? To answer these questions, the document suggests strengthening scientific procedures, monitoring and evaluation, global assessments, and linking projects more closely to issues like food security and the green economy. The overall goal is to make International Waters projects more scientifically-guided and effective in solving transboundary water problems.

1. The International Waters Science Conference 2012
Bangkok, Thailand ♦ 24 to 26 September 2012
Setting the Science-based Agenda
for International Waters for the Next Decade
Joseph Alcamo
Chief Scientist, United Nations Environment Programme

2. 1. How exactly is science involved?
How to strengthen the input of science to GEF International Waters?
Three questions …
2. Are the problems getting solved?
How can science help make GEF International Waters projects even
more successful in solving problems?
3. Are we addressing all the right issues?
How can GEF International Waters become even more relevant?

3. 1. How is science involved?
The Pieces in the GEF International Waters Project Puzzle
Revising
SAP/NAP
Implementation
Feedback
Loop
GEF & non-GEF
Science
- Concepts
- Data
- Knowledge
- Methods
Idea
Issues
Concept
IW Project
Concept
(PIF)
Project
Develop-
ment
Project
Inception
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis
Strategic Action Programmes.
National Action Plans
Monitoring
& Evaluation

4. 1. Introduce more formal scientific procedures  Guidelines for
assessments; peer review process; scientific advice on project improvements;
reviewing scientific content of PIFs (project info forms); PPGs (project
documentation)
1. How is science involved?
How to strengthen the input of science?
2. Regularly identify emerging issues  Set up a foresight process
4. Set up standing scientific task force for one or more themes
(water bodies plus cross-cutting)
3. Intensify cooperation with the scientific community – Global Water
System Project, Future Earth, International Hydrologic Programme, …
The vehicle for organizing… scientific procedures; foresight process; regular
meetings with IW management; cooperation with scientific community;
supplement evaluation of projects with scientific recommendations; support
GEF-STAP

5. GEF International Waters:
Since 1990s: GEF invests $1.1 billion  leverages $4.7
billion
Are the problems getting solved ?
Are we spending our money in the right way?
2. Are the problems getting solved?

6. Slow but steady recovery of the Danube &
Black Sea
• Measures on 49 high priority pollution sources
• Fewer algal blooms
• Increased fish catch
• But what are the numbers?
The International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR)
2. Are the problems getting solved?
Evidence of progress in protecting transboundary waters
Actions on depleted fisheries in South China
Sea & Gulf of Thailand
• Plans for a regional initiative  integrated fisheries
and habitat management areas (fisheries refugia) in
Southeast Asia
• Guidelines for the establishment of fisheries refugia
• Agreed lists of threatened species
• How close to sustainability and when?
200m 1993

7. Are the problems getting
solved?
Are we spending our money
in the right way?
2. Are the problems getting solved?
How science can help: Monitoring & evaluation
Help from science:
• Monitoring of implementation of
measures
• Monitoring of the environment, e.g.
water quality, fish production, …,
baseline & temporal studies; indicators
and targets
• Evaluation of progress (against
environmental quality benchmarks)
• Strengthen TWAP
Feedback to GEF – International Waters
To what extent are transboundary
waters improving? At what rate?
Are Strategic Action Plans being
implemented?
Are they effective in
restoring/protecting water
resources?

8. 2. Are the problems getting solved?
How science can help: Global/regional assessments
What are the most affected
transboundary waters?
(strengthen TWAP)
Where should we focus our
attention? Now? Soon?
Hot Spot Analysis
River basins sensitive to climate change and pressure
from increasing water withdrawals.
Are the problems getting
solved?
Are we spending our money
in the right way?

9. 2. Are the problems getting solved?
How science can help: Global/regional assessments
Help from science:
 “Hot spot analysis”
 Top down global/regional assessments
(Strengthening TDAs)
 Prospective studies – Scenario analysis
 Computer modelling
 Remote sensing
What are the most affected
transboundary waters?
(strengthen TWAP)
Where should we focus our
attention? Now? Soon?
Are the problems getting
solved?
Are we spending our money
in the right way?

10. 3. Are we addressing all the right issues?
The Rio+20 imperative
The link with food
security
The link with the Green Economy
The link with chemicals and waste

11. Pressure on marine and inland
fisheries
 Overfishing
 Habitat contamination (water quality
degradation, e.g. endocrine disruptors)
 Habitat destruction
 Climate change
 Agricultural runoff + municipal
wastewater  degrading water quality
 coastal hypoxic “dead zones”
Marine: 53% fully
exploited; 31% depleted
or overexploited (FAO)
405 coastal hypoxic
“dead zones” (2008)
3. Are we addressing all the right issues?
Food security & fisheries
• 10% of total calories but
16% animal protein
• 2.9 B people >15%
animal protein in diet
Fisheries: a food security issue: Undermining
ecological
foundation
35,40 man,cor

12. 3. Are we addressing all the right issues?
Food security & fisheries
How much fish habitat is curtailed by “dead zones”?
How much do nutrient loads need to be reduced to avert
coastal hypoxic zones?
How can science help?
What exactly are “sustainable” fisheries? e.g.
- Maximum sustainable yields?
- Acceptable water quality?
- How large do protected areas need to be?
How dependent are developing countries on protein from inland
fisheries?
How degraded are inland fisheries? (Inland hypoxic zones?).
What kind of ecological wastewater treatment and watershed
management can help avert degradation?
Link transboundary studies with food security

13. 3. Are we addressing all the right issues?
Chemicals & waste & water quality
Land-based chemicals contaminating the marine
environment: endocrine disrupting chemicals
Pesticides (DDT), pharmaceuticals (antibiotics, tranquillizers),
industrial chemicals (PCBs, dioxin)
Presence in coastal zone
e.g. found in European coastal environment :
• Seawater, sediments & suspended solids in Mediterranean, Baltic, North Sea.
• Marine invertebrates & vertebrates, molluscs, crustaceans, mussels, fishes.
Impact - Interfere with functioning of endocrine system
• Impaired development
• Reproductive abnormalities
How can
science help?
What is level of endocrine disrupting chemicals in the
freshwater and marine environment of developing
countries ?
What are options for reducing the source of
these chemicals?

14. 3. Are we addressing all the right issues?
The Green Economy
How Can Science Help ?
 What is value of ecosystem services provided by transboundary
waters & what is value being lost?
 What is the potential for marine-based renewable energy ?
 How can the efficiency of the fishery industry be improved?
 What are the options for watershed, coastal and ocean governanc
to ensure a productive and sustainable transboundary waters?
• Profits  US$8 billion / year
• Household income  US$35 billion/year
• Contribution to global economic output  US$235 billion / year
• Employment, direct & indirect  170 million jobs
World fisheries: key pillar
of the Green Economy

15. How to strengthen the input of science to GEF -
International Waters?
Formalizing science procedures; foresight; standing
committee …
Summing up: Setting the science-based
agenda in GEF International Waters
Are the problems getting solved?
How can science help make GEF International Waters
projects even more successful in solving problems?
Monitoring, evaluation, hot spot analysis, water quality
and other assessments …
Are we addressing all the right issues?
How can GEF International Waters become even more
relevant?
Link with the post Rio+20 agenda … Food security, the
Green Economy, …

16. The International Waters Science Conference 2012
Bangkok, Thailand ♦ 24 to 26 September 2012
Setting the Science-based Agenda
for International Waters for the Next Decade
Joseph Alcamo
Chief Scientist, United Nations Environment Programme