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Climate change and smallholder households across multiple dimensions:
perception, adaptation and barriers to adoption
Silv...
Perception
Barriers to
adoption
Adaptation
Climate change
• Weather vs climate
• Climate variability vs climate change
• Climate hazard:
- Climate shocks
- Climate s...
Perception
• Behavior is shaped by perception
rather than climate patterns.
• Farmer’s ability to perceive climate
change ...
Perception cont.
• Real climate trend vs perceived climate trend:
how accurate is farmers’ perception of climate
change?
•...
Perception cont.
Silvestri et al., 2013
Determinants of farmers’ perceptions of climate changeA number of factors influenc...
Adaptation
Transition in types of adaptation
Degree of climate change
‘Complexity’ofresponding
Incremental
-
coping
System...
Adaptation
Transition in types of adaptation
Degree of climate change
‘Complexity’ofresponding
Incremental
-
coping
System...
Using climate science to determine when transitions will be required
Adaptation cont.
IPCC (2012)
• Where is it that the n...
Adaptation cont.
Heinke et al. in preparationChanges in means of distributions for SPEI - 2040
Adaptation cont.
Smallholders’ coping strategies to climate shocks
Silvestri et al. (2013)
• Main shocks were drought and
...
Adaptation cont.
63
101
140
24
72
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Numberoffarmers
Smallholders’ adaptation strategies
Key ad...
Desired adaptations
(percentage of respondent)
The main desired adaptations require a more significant initial
investment ...
Adaptation cont.
• Constraints to adaptations
Silvestri et al. (2013)
Adaptation cont.
• Does adaptation to climate change
provide food security?
• What adaptation practices food secure
farmer...
Adaptation cont.
Learning from HH that are doing better than other
• Years of experience.
• Greater diversity of crops.
• ...
Silvestri et al. submitted
Adaptation cont.
Learning from HH that are doing better than other
• Household income
increases...
Mitigation co-benefits also important
Bryan et al. (2013)
7 districts
Determinants of Adaptation
Barriers to adoption
• Farmers are in general risk adverse.
• Factors influencing adaptation va...
• Effectiveness of extension services.
• Social safety nets (food or other aid)
support the adoption of some practices
(de...
Behavioral barriers in response to climate change and their drivers
Barriers to adoption cont.
De Jalon et al. (2014)
• Qu...
Barriers to adoption cont.
De Jalon et al. (2014)
Barriers to adoption cont.
De Jalon et al. (2014)
What does influence probability of
displaying behavioral barriers?
• Far...
Conclusions
• Households perceive long term
climate change, but the degree of
adaptation is somewhat limited.
• Many of th...
Conclusions
?
Conclusions
• Development/government agencies should focus more on
supporting long-term adaptation strategies through grea...
The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given ...
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Climate change and smallholder households across multiple dimensions: perception, adaptation and barriers to adoption

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Presentation delivered by Silvia Silvestri during a seminar organized by the Livestock Systems and Environment Program at ILRI Nairobi on 20 November 2014

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Climate change and smallholder households across multiple dimensions: perception, adaptation and barriers to adoption

  1. 1. Climate change and smallholder households across multiple dimensions: perception, adaptation and barriers to adoption Silvia Silvestri, PhD Senior Scientist International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) Nairobi 20 November 2014
  2. 2. Perception Barriers to adoption Adaptation
  3. 3. Climate change • Weather vs climate • Climate variability vs climate change • Climate hazard: - Climate shocks - Climate stresses
  4. 4. Perception • Behavior is shaped by perception rather than climate patterns. • Farmer’s ability to perceive climate change is a prerequisite for their choice to adapt. • Emphasis is put on recent climatic events in making decisions. @CCAFS
  5. 5. Perception cont. • Real climate trend vs perceived climate trend: how accurate is farmers’ perception of climate change? • Results from Kenya analysis of HH data 2009-2010 • Farmers perceived increase in average temperature (94%), decrease in average precipitation (88%), and long-term change in rainfall variability – temporal and spatial change on rainfall (91%). • Farmers reported increase in periods of droughts or dry spell (51%) between rainy seasons in 20 years. • What actual climate data from 1957 and 1996 from weather stations closed to the sites say? No statistically significant trend. • Although: increase in minimum temperature and decline in rainfall happened during most recent years. Bryan et al., 2013. Source: Oguto et al., 2007
  6. 6. Perception cont. Silvestri et al., 2013 Determinants of farmers’ perceptions of climate changeA number of factors influences the likelihood that farmers will perceive climate change: • Experience. • Information (i.e. on livestock production such as destocking, new breeds, indigenous breeds, livestock-crop integration, livestock diseases). • Food aid. • Extension advice -> limited number of visits? Difficult to deliver information in an uncertain environment?
  7. 7. Adaptation Transition in types of adaptation Degree of climate change ‘Complexity’ofresponding Incremental - coping Systemic - adaptation Transformative - trasformation Adapted from Hodwen et al. (2010), and Vermeulen et al. (2013) Increasing costs, increasing barriers, decreasing tolerance to uncertainty
  8. 8. Adaptation Transition in types of adaptation Degree of climate change ‘Complexity’ofresponding Incremental - coping Systemic - adaptation Transformative - trasformation Supplemental feeding (off farm purchase) Use of more resistant crop varieties Water storage for livestock Planting dates Etc Animal breeding and genetic improvement Improved feed quality Improve animal husbandry and health Agroforestry Off-farm diversification Ect Shift in livestock systems Large scale irrigation New livelihoods Migration Etc Adapted from Hodwen et al. (2010), and Vermeulen et al. (2013) Increasing costs, increasing barriers, decreasing tolerance to uncertainty
  9. 9. Using climate science to determine when transitions will be required Adaptation cont. IPCC (2012) • Where is it that the negative impacts of climate change can be expected? • Identifying those areas that are most likely negatively affected by climate change is a precondition for prioritizing adaptation.
  10. 10. Adaptation cont. Heinke et al. in preparationChanges in means of distributions for SPEI - 2040
  11. 11. Adaptation cont. Smallholders’ coping strategies to climate shocks Silvestri et al. (2013) • Main shocks were drought and erratic rainfall. • Main results of the climate shocks was a decline in crop yield. • Main coping strategies are immediate responses to shocks and require little investment to be implemented. Results from Kenya analysis of HH data 2009-2010
  12. 12. Adaptation cont. 63 101 140 24 72 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Numberoffarmers Smallholders’ adaptation strategies Key adaptation strategies for livestock Silvestri et al. (2013)
  13. 13. Desired adaptations (percentage of respondent) The main desired adaptations require a more significant initial investment by farmers Adaptation cont. Silvestri et al. (2013) 52.4 44.6 22.1 9.8 9.3 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.0 6.2 4.2 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 % Silvestri et al. (2013)
  14. 14. Adaptation cont. • Constraints to adaptations Silvestri et al. (2013)
  15. 15. Adaptation cont. • Does adaptation to climate change provide food security? • What adaptation practices food secure farmers have in place? • Results from Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania analysis of HH data 2011-2012 (IMPACTlite survey*). Adaptation Food security Mitigation *data.ilri.org/portal/dataset/
  16. 16. Adaptation cont. Learning from HH that are doing better than other • Years of experience. • Greater diversity of crops. • More land devoted to growing vegetables, starches, pulses, fruits and cereals. Silvestri et al. submitted • Site-specific characteristics and different factors (i.e. type of production system; AEZ; socio-economic conditions) are important across different sites. @CCAFS
  17. 17. Silvestri et al. submitted Adaptation cont. Learning from HH that are doing better than other • Household income increases with the number of crops cultivated. • The more agricultural and non-agricultural activities the lower the income? • Does household welfare depends more on the activity mix than on the total number of activities per se?
  18. 18. Mitigation co-benefits also important Bryan et al. (2013) 7 districts
  19. 19. Determinants of Adaptation Barriers to adoption • Farmers are in general risk adverse. • Factors influencing adaptation vary according with the adaptation strategy chosen. Different strategies are needed to support the adoption of particular adaptation options. • Climate information is important (for helping farmers to decide when destocking and move animals...). • Diversified sources of income (mixed crop livestock production and off farm sources of income) and credit support adaptation of some measures. @CCAFS
  20. 20. • Effectiveness of extension services. • Social safety nets (food or other aid) support the adoption of some practices (destocking, changing crop variety, changing livestock feeds). • Greater distance to the markets diminishes the probability of destocking and changing feeds. The isolation also limits access to information and exchange with other farmers. Barriers to adoption cont. Determinants of Adaptation @CCAFS
  21. 21. Behavioral barriers in response to climate change and their drivers Barriers to adoption cont. De Jalon et al. (2014) • Questionnaire statements were associated with each of the different behavioral barrier to climate change
  22. 22. Barriers to adoption cont. De Jalon et al. (2014)
  23. 23. Barriers to adoption cont. De Jalon et al. (2014) What does influence probability of displaying behavioral barriers? • Farming experience • Education • Receiving climate information
  24. 24. Conclusions • Households perceive long term climate change, but the degree of adaptation is somewhat limited. • Many of the coping responses are decisions that households are typically reluctant to do (e.g. reducing consumption, selling livestock etc.). • Short term coping strategies, such as food aid, are necessary but need more support for long-term adaptation (e.g. livelihood diversification). @CCAFS
  25. 25. Conclusions ?
  26. 26. Conclusions • Development/government agencies should focus more on supporting long-term adaptation strategies through greater investments in rural and agricultural development: • Development and dissemination of technologies (and early warning systems). • Investment in infrastructures to improve market access. • Improved quality and access to inputs. • Expand access to extension and credit services. • Education and training for livelihood diversification within and outside agriculture. • Expand access to weather insurance. • Increasing food stockpiles to be used during poor production years. • Support for collective adaptation strategies and demand- driven approaches are needed.
  27. 27. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI. better lives through livestock ilri.org Silvia Silvestri s.silvestri@cgiar.org

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