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Confronting climate change:
can we maintain resilient fisheries?
Mark Dickey-Collas
@Dickey-Collas
Independent researcher
Ecological & social dimensions of fisheries are being affected by climate change.
Policymakers, managers, scientists & fishing communities are seeking guidance on how
to holistically build resilience to climate change.
GFCM from 2021 to 2023 has requested:
• incorporation of climate change-related issues in the advice/work plan
• establishment of a GFCM network of experts on climate change
This talk will focus on adaption, not on mitigation measures
Introduction
I am the epitome of an ICES scientific adviser.
Imbedded in a highly engineered, resource intensive scientific system;
which draws on an impressive legacy of environmental monitoring,
investment in data management & state of the art research.
I am a natural scientist.
My background
Developed from Máñez et al. 2014 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0101466
Fisheries: a social-ecological system
Adaptation of behaviour
or process to reduce
impact, or increase
opportunity
Carbon mitigation to reduce
likelihood &/or severity
CLIMATE CHANGE
Adaptive capacity of social-ecological system
Current management & governance system assumes stability in productivity, stock
integrity, distribution & species composition, selectivity, fleet composition, national
shares etc. Often resulting in rigidity of the system.
FAO 2021 technical paper 667 https://doi.org/10.4060/cb3095en
ICES 2023 WKCLIMAD https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.22196560.v1
Eurich et al 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12790
Plus some systems have embedded concepts of stability into law (e.g. MSY in CFP)
Let’s use a handy framework:
Ecosystem-based fisheries management
FAO 2021 EAF implementation tool https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/cb3669en
1. Ability to achieve
2. Ecological well-being
3. Human well-being
Process, governance, institutional & external drivers
Retained/non retained species, ecosystem & habitats
Social, economic & cultural: livelihood, food & nutrition
security, health & safety, equity
1. Ability to achieve
2. Ecological well-being
3. Human well-being
Stakeholders, managers, decision makers, knowledge
holders/scientists
Fish populations, ecosystem structure & function,
ETP species & vulnerable/essential habitats
Fishers, processors, markets, communities, researchers
In fisheries system- who is impacted by climate change?
Fish & climate change
Steve Gaines, University of California, Santa Barbara, FAO symposium 2019
Note also phenology,
the seasonality & timing
Jameal Samhouri et al, ECCWO5 2023
Fishers adapt-in-place Fishers adapt-on-the-move
Fish projected to change in fish by 2050
https://ceresproject.eu/
No sudden events, as yet
(low likelihood/high impact)
More studies oncoming,
plenty shown this week
But in my experience we need
medium term projects 5-10 years,
more tricky scientifically
Fishers can & are adapting
Emily Ogier & Beth Fulton et al, ECCWO5 2023
We manage people
Ecological & economic risk is different from social vulnerability.
Integration of climatic, ecological, economic, & societal data reveal factors underlying
vulnerability are variable across fishing communities.
Koehn et al 2022 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0272120
Predragovic et al 2023 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2023.106719
Payne et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2018086118
Bastardie et al 2022 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.947150
OECD 2011
Understanding adaptive capacity of system
Climate risk, vulnerability - fisheries & coastal communities
Payne et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2018086118
Koehn et al 2021
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?i
d=10.1371/journal.pone.0272120
Science: generally scientists are adapting, providing
suggestions for transforming the system
Lots of science – minor impact on management
My experience: 5th International Symposium on
Effects of Climate Change on World’s Ocean ECCWO5
Ability to achieve:
Image @DickeyCollas
Heading down a risk-based approach
Emily Ogier & Beth Fulton et al, ECCWO5 2023
When developing tools to achieve,
think about why we need advice…
Holsman et al ECCWO5, ICES WKCLIMAD 2023 https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.22196560.v1
My experience is that management & governance mechanisms
are failing to adapt
Ability to achieve:
e.g. mackerel in the north Atlantic shows that current governance system is
more inflexible & less responsive than our fishers, ecosystem, research,
industries & markets.
Mason et al 2022 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12630
Kapstein et al 2023
Our knowledge base can inform us when change is occurring, & warn us of future risks,
but can management system adapt?
Transforming management system & governance:
• Less studied for fisheries & climate (correct me if I am wrong)
• It is a component of system that is fully designed & able to control
• Don’t underestimate power dynamics when transforming governance
Ability to achieve:
Blyth et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.634718
Confronting climate change:
can we maintain resilient fisheries?
Resilience:
capacity of a system to withstand,
recover, adapt, or transform in
response to a change
Properties that contribute to resilience
Ability to build resilience is an important feature of
planning & preparedness in face of climate change.
Resilience in social-ecological systems relies not only on
availability of assets but also on capability to mobilize
those assets to enable adaptive behaviour.
Cinner et al. 2018 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0065-x
Mason et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12630
Climate resilience in fisheries:
review of attributes of resilience
Mason et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12630
Climate Resilient Fisheries WG
Workshop & systematic literature review.
Result in 38 attributes.
Ecological attributes
Mason et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12630
Social-economic attributes
Mason et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12630
Governance attributes
Mason et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12630 -
These in theory might make sense; let’s challenge them
Image @DickeyCollas
Collect information on 18 differing fisheries across the world
Eurich et al 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12790
For each fishery, score each attribute
contribution to climate resilience
Image Eurich et al
For each fishery, score each attribute
contribution to climate resilience
Image Eurich et al
Conferring resilience:
• Population abundance
• Learning capacity
• Responsive governance
Strongest across climate-
resilient fisheries
• Ecosystem connectivity
• Place attachment
• Accountable governance
Key attributes
Eurich et al 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12790
Identified five fishery archetypes across our
selected case studies, showing a diversity of
approaches.
Then explore characteristics of fisheries (archetypes)
Eurich et al 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12790
Image @DickeyCollas
Image Eurich et al
Eurich et al 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12790
1. Building ecological assets & strengthening communities, observed in
rural & small-scale fisheries
2. Building economic assets & improving effective governance,
demonstrated in urban & wealthy fisheries
Found evidence of two pathways to resilience:
Pathway 1. Resilience through economic
assets and effective governance
Image Eurich
Pathway 2. Resilience through ecological
assets and strong communities
Image Eurich
economic assets
&
effective governance
From our case studies, evidence of at least two pathways to
climate resilient fisheries
ecological assets
&
strong communities
Image @DickeyCollas
Eurich et al 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12790
Resilience to maintain sustainable conversion of ecological
assets into socio-economic benefits
Solutions are different for different fisheries,
Framework can be applied to identify approaches, pathways & actionable levers for
improving climate resilience in fishery systems
A six-step process to assess a fishery’s climate
resilience & identify approaches & priority
actions to help build resilience in the fishery.
https://fisherysolutionscenter.edf.org/tools/climate-resilient-fisheries-planning-tool
Climate-Resilient Fisheries Planning Tool
Global experience of
implementing EBM
Haugen et al 2024 https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-024-00041-1
Survey of global EBM
researchers & practitioners
• In terms of impact, create network that addresses science relevance as much as
science precision
• Greater engagement with social scientists
• Consider temporal scale of science outputs – that grey medium-term horizon
• Be prepared to deliver science into a rigid governance system, any
transformation of governance comes with challenges
GFCM moving forward?
Confronting climate change:
can we maintain resilient fisheries?
• Key message: there are many paths & viable approaches
• Evaluate risks & measures across ecological, social-
economic & governance dimensions
• Governance structure is often less responsive than
ecosystems, industries & markets
• Our knowledge base can inform us when change is
occurring, & future risks but can the management
system adapt?
Image @DickeyCollas
FishSCORE Ocean Decade Program
Fisheries Strategies for Changing Oceans and Resilient
Ecosystems by 2030 (FishSCORE 2030)
https://oceandecade.org/actions/fisheries-strategies-for-changing-oceans-and-resilient-ecosystems-by-2030/
Huge thanks to:
Kathy Mills, Gulf of Maine Research Institute
Kristin Kleisner, Environmental Defense Fund
SNAPP Climate Resilient Fisheries WG
Also to Tarûb Bahri, Marta Ballesteros, Jason Link for discussions

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GFCM fish forum climate resilient fisheries

  • 1. Confronting climate change: can we maintain resilient fisheries? Mark Dickey-Collas @Dickey-Collas Independent researcher
  • 2. Ecological & social dimensions of fisheries are being affected by climate change. Policymakers, managers, scientists & fishing communities are seeking guidance on how to holistically build resilience to climate change. GFCM from 2021 to 2023 has requested: • incorporation of climate change-related issues in the advice/work plan • establishment of a GFCM network of experts on climate change This talk will focus on adaption, not on mitigation measures Introduction
  • 3. I am the epitome of an ICES scientific adviser. Imbedded in a highly engineered, resource intensive scientific system; which draws on an impressive legacy of environmental monitoring, investment in data management & state of the art research. I am a natural scientist. My background
  • 4. Developed from Máñez et al. 2014 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0101466 Fisheries: a social-ecological system Adaptation of behaviour or process to reduce impact, or increase opportunity Carbon mitigation to reduce likelihood &/or severity CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 5. Adaptive capacity of social-ecological system Current management & governance system assumes stability in productivity, stock integrity, distribution & species composition, selectivity, fleet composition, national shares etc. Often resulting in rigidity of the system. FAO 2021 technical paper 667 https://doi.org/10.4060/cb3095en ICES 2023 WKCLIMAD https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.22196560.v1 Eurich et al 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12790 Plus some systems have embedded concepts of stability into law (e.g. MSY in CFP)
  • 6. Let’s use a handy framework: Ecosystem-based fisheries management FAO 2021 EAF implementation tool https://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/cb3669en 1. Ability to achieve 2. Ecological well-being 3. Human well-being Process, governance, institutional & external drivers Retained/non retained species, ecosystem & habitats Social, economic & cultural: livelihood, food & nutrition security, health & safety, equity
  • 7. 1. Ability to achieve 2. Ecological well-being 3. Human well-being Stakeholders, managers, decision makers, knowledge holders/scientists Fish populations, ecosystem structure & function, ETP species & vulnerable/essential habitats Fishers, processors, markets, communities, researchers In fisheries system- who is impacted by climate change?
  • 8. Fish & climate change Steve Gaines, University of California, Santa Barbara, FAO symposium 2019 Note also phenology, the seasonality & timing Jameal Samhouri et al, ECCWO5 2023 Fishers adapt-in-place Fishers adapt-on-the-move
  • 9. Fish projected to change in fish by 2050 https://ceresproject.eu/ No sudden events, as yet (low likelihood/high impact) More studies oncoming, plenty shown this week But in my experience we need medium term projects 5-10 years, more tricky scientifically
  • 10. Fishers can & are adapting Emily Ogier & Beth Fulton et al, ECCWO5 2023
  • 11. We manage people Ecological & economic risk is different from social vulnerability. Integration of climatic, ecological, economic, & societal data reveal factors underlying vulnerability are variable across fishing communities. Koehn et al 2022 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0272120 Predragovic et al 2023 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2023.106719 Payne et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2018086118 Bastardie et al 2022 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.947150 OECD 2011 Understanding adaptive capacity of system
  • 12. Climate risk, vulnerability - fisheries & coastal communities Payne et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2018086118 Koehn et al 2021 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?i d=10.1371/journal.pone.0272120
  • 13. Science: generally scientists are adapting, providing suggestions for transforming the system Lots of science – minor impact on management My experience: 5th International Symposium on Effects of Climate Change on World’s Ocean ECCWO5 Ability to achieve: Image @DickeyCollas
  • 14. Heading down a risk-based approach Emily Ogier & Beth Fulton et al, ECCWO5 2023
  • 15. When developing tools to achieve, think about why we need advice… Holsman et al ECCWO5, ICES WKCLIMAD 2023 https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.22196560.v1
  • 16. My experience is that management & governance mechanisms are failing to adapt Ability to achieve: e.g. mackerel in the north Atlantic shows that current governance system is more inflexible & less responsive than our fishers, ecosystem, research, industries & markets. Mason et al 2022 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12630 Kapstein et al 2023
  • 17. Our knowledge base can inform us when change is occurring, & warn us of future risks, but can management system adapt? Transforming management system & governance: • Less studied for fisheries & climate (correct me if I am wrong) • It is a component of system that is fully designed & able to control • Don’t underestimate power dynamics when transforming governance Ability to achieve: Blyth et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.634718
  • 18. Confronting climate change: can we maintain resilient fisheries? Resilience: capacity of a system to withstand, recover, adapt, or transform in response to a change
  • 19. Properties that contribute to resilience Ability to build resilience is an important feature of planning & preparedness in face of climate change. Resilience in social-ecological systems relies not only on availability of assets but also on capability to mobilize those assets to enable adaptive behaviour. Cinner et al. 2018 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0065-x Mason et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12630
  • 20. Climate resilience in fisheries: review of attributes of resilience Mason et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12630 Climate Resilient Fisheries WG Workshop & systematic literature review. Result in 38 attributes.
  • 21. Ecological attributes Mason et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12630
  • 22. Social-economic attributes Mason et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12630
  • 23. Governance attributes Mason et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12630 -
  • 24. These in theory might make sense; let’s challenge them Image @DickeyCollas
  • 25. Collect information on 18 differing fisheries across the world Eurich et al 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12790
  • 26. For each fishery, score each attribute contribution to climate resilience Image Eurich et al
  • 27. For each fishery, score each attribute contribution to climate resilience Image Eurich et al
  • 28. Conferring resilience: • Population abundance • Learning capacity • Responsive governance Strongest across climate- resilient fisheries • Ecosystem connectivity • Place attachment • Accountable governance Key attributes Eurich et al 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12790
  • 29. Identified five fishery archetypes across our selected case studies, showing a diversity of approaches. Then explore characteristics of fisheries (archetypes) Eurich et al 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12790 Image @DickeyCollas
  • 31. Eurich et al 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12790 1. Building ecological assets & strengthening communities, observed in rural & small-scale fisheries 2. Building economic assets & improving effective governance, demonstrated in urban & wealthy fisheries Found evidence of two pathways to resilience:
  • 32. Pathway 1. Resilience through economic assets and effective governance Image Eurich
  • 33. Pathway 2. Resilience through ecological assets and strong communities Image Eurich
  • 34. economic assets & effective governance From our case studies, evidence of at least two pathways to climate resilient fisheries ecological assets & strong communities Image @DickeyCollas
  • 35. Eurich et al 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12790 Resilience to maintain sustainable conversion of ecological assets into socio-economic benefits Solutions are different for different fisheries, Framework can be applied to identify approaches, pathways & actionable levers for improving climate resilience in fishery systems
  • 36. A six-step process to assess a fishery’s climate resilience & identify approaches & priority actions to help build resilience in the fishery. https://fisherysolutionscenter.edf.org/tools/climate-resilient-fisheries-planning-tool Climate-Resilient Fisheries Planning Tool
  • 37. Global experience of implementing EBM Haugen et al 2024 https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-024-00041-1 Survey of global EBM researchers & practitioners
  • 38. • In terms of impact, create network that addresses science relevance as much as science precision • Greater engagement with social scientists • Consider temporal scale of science outputs – that grey medium-term horizon • Be prepared to deliver science into a rigid governance system, any transformation of governance comes with challenges GFCM moving forward?
  • 39. Confronting climate change: can we maintain resilient fisheries? • Key message: there are many paths & viable approaches • Evaluate risks & measures across ecological, social- economic & governance dimensions • Governance structure is often less responsive than ecosystems, industries & markets • Our knowledge base can inform us when change is occurring, & future risks but can the management system adapt? Image @DickeyCollas
  • 40. FishSCORE Ocean Decade Program Fisheries Strategies for Changing Oceans and Resilient Ecosystems by 2030 (FishSCORE 2030) https://oceandecade.org/actions/fisheries-strategies-for-changing-oceans-and-resilient-ecosystems-by-2030/ Huge thanks to: Kathy Mills, Gulf of Maine Research Institute Kristin Kleisner, Environmental Defense Fund SNAPP Climate Resilient Fisheries WG Also to Tarûb Bahri, Marta Ballesteros, Jason Link for discussions

Editor's Notes

  1. Here are our 38 resilience attributes on the left by the three fishery dimensions. On the bottom is the percent of case studies, which will help you visualize the trends
  2. As you can see, they are ordered by increasing score with We are calling the top 3-5 attributes in each dimension robust sources of resilience
  3. So, what is next? We wanted to use these five fishery archetypes to guide stakeholders in new fisheries as they set long-term goals and prioritize actions to improve their resilience.
  4. In our paper we take the five fishery archetypes and priority attributes and combine them to distill two resilience pathways. The first includes high-capacity, market-oriented, industrial fisheries. Within these fisheries we found a reinforcing feedback loop, where wealth and reserves and access to knowledge promoted technology, which in turn results in further wealth, learning, and economic opportunity. Together, this drives innovation and government responsiveness. In the paper we go into full detail about actionable levers that we learned from these governance-orientated fisheries
  5. Conversely, we outlined these 7 fisheries as pathway 2 where resilience is built through ecological assets and strong communities. On this path, ecological assets are not being turned into cash income as rapidly as the other pathway. Rather, the intrinsic capacities of the fished species OR healthy ecosystems create ecological assets, This leads to socio-economic assets, specifically economic diversity and investment in infrastructure. We found that when place attachment, resilience mindset, and social capital, were readily available the fishery was able to derive benefits from the fishery sustainably and equitably
  6. This is what this looks like--schematic to give you an idea, don’t worry about reading them. I’m going to give a brief overview of these, and we’ll bring them back at the end for deeper discussion. DEFINITIONS: (from Marine Policy draft) - Assets are resources that can be drawn upon to buffer impacts or respond to change. Access to financial or technological resources are important social assets (Cinner and Barnes, 2019), while healthy fish stocks and diverse habitats represent important ecological assets. Resilience may be influenced by the magnitude, diversity, and stability of assets across a given system. Flexibility is defined as the ability to switch strategies or make other adjustments in the face of change. Flexibility is enhanced by diversity and redundancy in each dimension of the system; diversity provides a greater range of options, while redundancy provides ‘insurance’ by allowing functional groups or actors to compensate for declines or loss of others. Organization refers to the social and ecological relationships, networks, and institutions that operate at different spatial and temporal scales to confer resilience. Thus, alongside social capital (the connections between people and groups), organization encompasses connectivity of ecosystem components and functions, which supports mobility, dispersal and flow of fish populations. Both learning and agency concern only the socio-economic and governance dimensions of a fishery. Learning is the process through which people and institutions recognize and identify factors contributing to change, and analyze possible responses. Finally, agency is the capacity and freedom of people to make and act on choices, and underpins people’s ability to operationalize different aspects of resilience. In keeping with Cinner et al., (2018), domains intersect and reinforce one another
  7. This is what this looks like--schematic to give you an idea, don’t worry about reading them. I’m going to give a brief overview of these, and we’ll bring them back at the end for deeper discussion. DEFINITIONS: (from Marine Policy draft) - Assets are resources that can be drawn upon to buffer impacts or respond to change. Access to financial or technological resources are important social assets (Cinner and Barnes, 2019), while healthy fish stocks and diverse habitats represent important ecological assets. Resilience may be influenced by the magnitude, diversity, and stability of assets across a given system. Flexibility is defined as the ability to switch strategies or make other adjustments in the face of change. Flexibility is enhanced by diversity and redundancy in each dimension of the system; diversity provides a greater range of options, while redundancy provides ‘insurance’ by allowing functional groups or actors to compensate for declines or loss of others. Organization refers to the social and ecological relationships, networks, and institutions that operate at different spatial and temporal scales to confer resilience. Thus, alongside social capital (the connections between people and groups), organization encompasses connectivity of ecosystem components and functions, which supports mobility, dispersal and flow of fish populations. Both learning and agency concern only the socio-economic and governance dimensions of a fishery. Learning is the process through which people and institutions recognize and identify factors contributing to change, and analyze possible responses. Finally, agency is the capacity and freedom of people to make and act on choices, and underpins people’s ability to operationalize different aspects of resilience. In keeping with Cinner et al., (2018), domains intersect and reinforce one another
  8. This is what this looks like--schematic to give you an idea, don’t worry about reading them. I’m going to give a brief overview of these, and we’ll bring them back at the end for deeper discussion. DEFINITIONS: (from Marine Policy draft) - Assets are resources that can be drawn upon to buffer impacts or respond to change. Access to financial or technological resources are important social assets (Cinner and Barnes, 2019), while healthy fish stocks and diverse habitats represent important ecological assets. Resilience may be influenced by the magnitude, diversity, and stability of assets across a given system. Flexibility is defined as the ability to switch strategies or make other adjustments in the face of change. Flexibility is enhanced by diversity and redundancy in each dimension of the system; diversity provides a greater range of options, while redundancy provides ‘insurance’ by allowing functional groups or actors to compensate for declines or loss of others. Organization refers to the social and ecological relationships, networks, and institutions that operate at different spatial and temporal scales to confer resilience. Thus, alongside social capital (the connections between people and groups), organization encompasses connectivity of ecosystem components and functions, which supports mobility, dispersal and flow of fish populations. Both learning and agency concern only the socio-economic and governance dimensions of a fishery. Learning is the process through which people and institutions recognize and identify factors contributing to change, and analyze possible responses. Finally, agency is the capacity and freedom of people to make and act on choices, and underpins people’s ability to operationalize different aspects of resilience. In keeping with Cinner et al., (2018), domains intersect and reinforce one another