Scenarios for Risk and Disaster ManagementPresentation Transcript
SCENARIO METHODOLOGYFOR EMERGENCY PLANNING, RESPONSE AND TRAINING David Alexander Global Risk Forum - Davos (CH)
What is an emergency scenario? a reconstruction of past events (what happened………?) or...a hypothetical exploration of future ones (what if………?)
Definition:-a logical progression of events in which the most probable consequences are sought, and they form the basis for further developments as the scenario unfolds
Scenario: "a systemic method for thinking creatively about possible complex and uncertain futures. The central idea... is to consider a variety of possible futures that include many of the important uncertainties in the system rather than to focus on the accurate prediction of a single outcome. Peterson, G.D., G.S. Cumming and S.R. Carpenter1993. Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in anuncertain world. Conservation Biology 17(2): 358-366.
Scenarios are a form of communications model• a model simplifies reality in order to make it understandable• scenarios help bridge the gap between theoretical studies and the need to solve pressing practical problems.
Scenariosin the risk& disaster cycle
Scenarios can be used for modelling all phases of the disaster cycle
Examples of the use of scenario methods • mitigation: scenarios of vulnerability of the built environment • preparation: scenarios for training of emergency personnel • emergency response: warning and evacuation scenarios • recovery: economic planning scenarios for recovery • reconstruction: scenarios of economic conditions of reconstruction.
Mitigation phase• train risk and emergency planners• assess vulnerability of structures and communities• learn lessons from past disasters.
Preparedness phase• train emergency response personnel• build conceptual models of impacts and responses• estimate performance of monitoring and alarm equipment• design warning and evacuation systems.
Emergency response phase• study efficiency of emergency responses and plans• estimate efficacy of relief operations• reconstruct past events to debrief emergency personnel.
Recovery phase• predict magnitude and location of damage in future disasters• model post-disaster employment patterns Reconstruction phase• model the social and economic conditions of reconstruction• plan financial aspects of reconstruction.
hypothetical historical ingredients analysis Scenario methodology initial reference time in emergencyconditions event zero planning consequences evaluation of at time 1 the progress evolution of the scenario consequences development at time 2 of the evolution scenario consequences at time n formal evaluation of the outcome of the scenario
How to build scenarios
Fundamental elements of scenarios:-• impact of the disaster: size, complexity, area involved• basic rules of operation: duration of the scenario, timescales• logistical factors• dynamics of scenario development• goals to be achieved: types of responses and outcomes required• complications and setbacks.
Ingredients of an emergency scenario the basic "building blocks"• a context of hazard, vulnerability, risk• a reference event it occurs at time zero what, where, when and who?• impacts and reactions possibility of secondary hazards.
Ingredients of an emergency scenario the basic "building blocks"• ground rules• basic logistical factors• the roles of participants• the objectives they should try to reach• complicating factors or setbacks.
Fundamental elements of emergency scenarios• the nature and impact of the disaster - size, complexity, area involved• basic rules of operation - duration of the scenario - timescales• basic logistical factors.
Fundamental elements of emergency scenarios• roles of participants - number and type of roles - degree of interaction between participants•• objectives to be reached - type of response required from participants• complications and setbacks.
Scenarios for emergency planning - fundamental concepts -Emergency Disaster Catastrophe (Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure) Resilience = Risk [ → Impact → Response]
Scenarios for emergency planning - ingredients -• a context of hazard, vulnerability and risk• their intensities and their geographical expression• a minimum of necessary information regarding the starting situation - boundary conditions• the reference event.
Scenarios for emergency planning - ingredients -• carefully specified consequences• a chain of consequences - impacts and reactions - secondary hazards• a logical explication of the chain of consequences.
Scenarios for emergency planning - ingredients -• careful examination of all assumptions on which developments are based• testing of assumptions• gauging of the effectiveness of particular remedial measures.
Emergency planning scenarios- basic structure of an emergency plan - • Description of local hazards - hazard scenarios • Vulnerability and risk analysis for the local area - vulnerability and risk scenarios • Legal and jursdictional responsibilities - mutual aid scenarios.
Basic structure of an emergency plan• Local emergency resource audit - personnel, equipment, vehicles, materials, supplies• Command system specifications - structures, communications, hierarchies• Emergency procedures (all-hazards or single hazard) - emergency response scenarios• Provisions for testing, disseminating and updating the plan - emergency exercise scenario.
Elements of the planning scenarios• warning systems• preparations to make before the impact• evacuation procedures• command chains and centres• communications systems.
Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia, Nov. 1985:the worst failure of warning processes in modern times.
Nevado del Ruiz, 13 November 1985• a nocturnal phreatic eruption with attenuated precursors• 23,000 dead in lahars (mudflows), most in the town of Armero• a hazard map had been made• the volcano was heavily instrumented• there was a failure of communication between scientists, civil authorities and the general public.
Elements of the planning scenarios• search and rescue• medical and mortuary services (mass-casualty management)• maintenance of public order• public information services• recovery of infrastructure and basic services.
Constructing scenarios of vulnerabilityWhat is vulnerability?• the possible magnitude of losses• the potential for disruption or harm• the reverse of capability, coping, adaptation and resilience• different by sector: structural, economic, social, commercial, etc.
Scenarios inemergency training
INSTRUCTION PRACTICAL TRAINING SCENARIO METHODOLOGYTHEORETICAL PRACTICAL KNOWLEDGE EXPERIENCE
ABILITY EDUCATION TRAINING & EXERCISINGINFORMATION DISSEMINATION
Common Common Commonculture objectives language Broad professional training in emergency management Professional experience and training Disciplinary training (e.g. bachelors degree)
How to use scenarios in training• class discussions• small-group discussions• individual responses written essay oral presentation draw maps or diagrams.
When using scenarios for training• use logic and realism in the formulation of the problem• ration information• avoid hindsight• mediate the solutions proposed by members of the class• encourage participants to consider the effects of their own decisions.
The use of scenarios for training emergency managers• illustrate essential concepts and problems• learn how to coordinate & manage events• learn how to interact with other people• study evolution of emergency situations• analyse consequences of decisions and actions• develop rapid reactions to changing events.
Examples of the use of scenarios in emergency training• situations with: - differences of opinion - chronic uncertainty - scarcity of resources - things that go wrong - information & task overload• problems to solve in short timespans• exercises for the: - use of emergency messages - emergency mapping of disaster areas.
Example of emergency cognitive mapping of a flash-flood scenario Alexander, D.E. 2004. Cognitive mapping as anemergency management training exercise. Journal ofCrisis and Contingency Management 12(4): 150-159.
70 cm SKETCH MAP 7.5 m 70 cm (not to scale)Province A Province B km 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 NORTH (12,100 meters) SOUTHENTRANCE ENTRANCE Highway 997 MOUNT INDOMITABLE Fan Hydrant, phone.etc. Traffic lightExample of a sketch map to illustratea scenario of a tunnel fire disaster
The spectrum of emergency training methodologies One or More Many One more roles roles role roles Delphic Scenario Game Field questionnaire methodology simulation exercises Few participants Many participants
Need to improve organisation and command at site of emergency operations
Need to set up a command post sooner
Dangers posed by poor organisationand lack of incident command at site
Advance medical post not set up at best location
Hospital triage and first aidstation was too small and cramped
Scenario modelling and assessmentenabled degradation of response capacity to be modelled and 15 recommendationsto be made about improving performance.
Scenario-building in ten steps• define objectives of scenario-building• define components of scenario• create reference event, apply boundary conditions• list trends, tendencies, constraints• identify key uncertainties.
Scenario-building in ten steps• use systems theory to create outcomes• assess consistency and plausibility• use numerical modelling where possible• evaluate key uncertainties in scenario• turn scenario into an operational, decision-making tool for stakeholders.
The use of scenarios in risk and disaster planning, management andtraining can help solve a major problem... ...how to transform an academic way of thinking into a practical way.
Alexander, D. 2000.Scenario methodology forteaching principles ofemergency management.Disaster Prevention andManagement 9(2): 89-97.Alexander, D. 2002.Principles of EmergencyPlanning and Management.Oxford University Press,New York, 365 pp.
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