Modelling Water & Life
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My recent 10-minute talk on modelling for environmental decision-making
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Modelling Water & Life
- 1. Modelling Water & Life4 in 40 Corey J. A. Bradshaw1,2 1THE ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE, University of Adelaide, Australia 2South Australian Research & Development Institute
- 10. 10000 birds
- 14. Land-based ecosystem loss €545 billion by 2010
- 15. > €14 trillion/year lost by 2050Cost of Policy Inaction (COPI): The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target. European Commission
- 17. highest in boreal biome (60 %)
- 18. humid tropics next (Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia)
- 19. dry tropics next highest (Australia, Brazil, Argentina)
- 20. N.A. greatest proportional lost by continent
- 21. Nationally, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, DR CongoHansen et al. 2010 PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.0912668107 Barson et al. 2000 Land Cover Change in Australia, Bur RurSci
- 24. 320 million people displaced
- 25. total reported damages > US$1151 billion Bradshaw et al. 2007 Glob Change Biol13:2379-2395
- 27. malaria
- 28. leptospirosis
- 29. dysentery
- 30. cholera
- 31. hepatitis
- 32. typhusincreased host habitat availability & displacement of humans to areas where inadequate sanitation and temporary high-density living promote disease Ohl & Tapsell 2000 Br Med J 321:1167-1168; Ivers & Ryan 2006 Curr Op Infect Dis19:408-414
- 33. Mellin et al. 2010 Glob EcolBiogeog19:212
- 34. 6 5 log variance 4 3 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 log mean abundance Taylor’s Power Law (TPL) Relationship between log-transformed abundances (N) and temporal variance (s2) = line with a slope of 2 deviations from TPL: Kilpatrick & Ives (2003) – Nature TPL slope decreases as the strength of competition between species increases
- 35. 3.0 ± 0.4 3.1 ± 0.4 2.2 ± 0.4 2.0 ± 0.3 1.7 ± 0.3 1.5 ± 0.3 Reef isolation Reef area Mellin et al. 2010 Ecology doi:10.1890/10-0267.1
- 36. Mellin et al. 2010 Ecology doi:10.1890/10-0267.1
- 38. Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
- 39. Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
- 40. ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE environmental damage per capita prosperity Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
- 41. Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
- 43. Julian CaleyAIMS
- 45. Mark MeekanAIMS
- 46. Camille MellinUniversity of Adelaide/AIMS
- 47. Kelvin PehUniversity of Leeds
- 48. Navjot S. SodhiNational University of Singapore
- 49. Ian WarkentinMemorial Universitycorey.bradshaw@adelaide.edu.au www.adelaide.edu.au/directory/corey.bradshaw ConservationBytes.com © Tiantian Zhang, Good50x70.org
Editor's Notes
- Russia has the most extensive forest cover, followed by Brazil, Canada and USAEstimated area of gross forest cover loss at the global scale is 1,011,000 km2, or 3.1 % of year 2000 forest area (0.6% per year from 2000 to 2005)Gross forest cover loss was highest in the boreal biome, with fire accounting for 60 % of that lossThe humid tropics had the second-highest gross forest cover loss, due mainly to broad-scale clearing for agriculture in Brazil, Indonesia and MalaysiaWhen expressed as proportion lost from the 2000 extent estimates, the humid tropics is the least disturbedThe Amazon interior is the largest remaining ‘intact’ forest, followed by the Congo basinThe dry tropics has the 3rd-highest gross forest cover loss, with Australia, Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay accounting for most of thisAlthough the temperate biome had the lowest forest cover (due mainly to forest clearances long, long ago), it had the 2nd-highest proportional gross forest cover lossNorth America has the greatest area of gross forest cover loss, followed by Asia and South AmericaNorth America alone accounts for ~ 30 % of global gross forest cover loss, and has the highest proportional gross forest cover loss at 5.1 %Brazil has the highest gross national forest cover loss of any nationIndonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo are next in line for tropical countriesUSA has the highest proportional global forest cover loss since 2000Despite previous estimates suggesting that Canada has had little forest loss, the new estimates place it second in terms of gross forest cover loss only to Brazil
- 1990-2000: nearly 100 000 people were killed and 320 million people were displaced by floods, with total reported economic damages exceeding US$1151 billion