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• Anthropocene
biodiversity crisis
• global environmental
degradation drivers
• deforested Australia
• degraded Australia
...
• > 4 million protists
• 16600 protozoa
• 75000-300000 helminth parasites
• 1.5 million fungi
• 320000 plants
• 4-6 millio...
Bradshawetal.2009FrontEcolEnviron7:79-87
Bradshawetal.2009TrendsEcolEvol24:541-548
Hansenetal.2010PNAS107:8650-8655
Loarie...
u
Halpern et al. 2008 Science 319:948-952
Connell et al. (2008) Mar Ecol Prog Ser 360:60-72
Pelagic
threshershark
Slivertip
shark
G
rey
reefsharkTigershark
Snaggletooth
shark
Sicklefin
hound
shark
Taw
ny
nurse
shar...
99 % of ALL species that have ever
existed...
EXTINCT
species lifespan = 1-10 M years
Ordovician (490-443 MYA)
Devonian (4...
• 21 % of all known mammals
• 30 % of all known amphibians
• 12 % of all known birds
• 35 % of conifers & cycads
• 17 % of...
City Development Index www.unchs.org
Ecological Footprint www.footprintnetwork.org
Environmental Performance Index epi.yal...
• natural forest loss
2005-1990 /ha
• natural habitat conversion
human-modified landcover/total landcover
• marine capture...
Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
POPULATION
WEALTH
GOVERNANCE
Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
per capita prosperity
environmentaldamage
ENVIRONMENTAL
KUZNETS CURVE
Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
1 10 100
0
50
100
150
linear
quadratic
intercept
per capita PPP-adjusted GNI
Proportionalenvironmental
impactrank*
1 10 10...
9
21.5
21.5
40
7
1
forest woodland open woodland
shrubland grassland unvegetated
pre-European
(late 18th Century)
settleme...
5
14
26
37
16
2
forest woodland open woodland
1980s…
Barson et al. 2000 Land Cover Changes in Australia
i.e., ~ 38
% loss ...
Barson et al. 2000 Land Cover Changes in Australia
Bradshaw 2012 J Plant Ecol 5:109-120
%remaining
A
cacia
C
allitrisC
asuarina
Eucalyptus
lowEucalypttall
M
allee
othershrublandsrain
forests
0
20
40
60
80
100
7...
• legacy of deforestation –
some of world’s highest
• highest modern mammal
extinction rate on Earth
• continued mammal de...
Bradshaw et al. 2013 Biol Conserv 161:71-90
intact biological
communities and
functioning species
interactions provide
humanity with a host of
‘services’ that support
• ~ 90 % of all wild plant species
require animal pollinators for
fruit & seed set
• ~ 35 % of all human crops require
pol...
Bradshaw et al. 2007 Glob Change Biol 13:2379-2395
1990-2000
• ~100,000 people killed
• 320 million people displaced
• tot...
Carbon Farming Initiative (2011)
• financial incentive to land managers & farmers to reduce GHG
emissions from BAU or sequ...
•largest potential GHG mitigation using ecology:
enhancing woody biomass
•most landscape changes likely compatible with
bi...
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!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
! !
SaleSale
YambaYamba
WaggaWagga
PerthPerth
AliceAlice
Sydn...
© Moronail.net
© WWF
What now?
1.forests – stop all
deforestation now
2.carbon – tax
3.ecosystem services –
valuing what we get for
free
...
©TiantianZhang,Good50x70.org
corey.bradshaw@adelaide.edu.au
www.adelaide.edu.au/directory/corey.bradshaw
ConservationBytes...
Current State of World Biodiversity: our impoverished future life support system
Current State of World Biodiversity: our impoverished future life support system
Current State of World Biodiversity: our impoverished future life support system
Current State of World Biodiversity: our impoverished future life support system
Current State of World Biodiversity: our impoverished future life support system
Current State of World Biodiversity: our impoverished future life support system
Current State of World Biodiversity: our impoverished future life support system
Current State of World Biodiversity: our impoverished future life support system
Current State of World Biodiversity: our impoverished future life support system
Current State of World Biodiversity: our impoverished future life support system
Current State of World Biodiversity: our impoverished future life support system
Current State of World Biodiversity: our impoverished future life support system
Current State of World Biodiversity: our impoverished future life support system
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Current State of World Biodiversity: our impoverished future life support system

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Presentation given to Willunga Environment Centre on 09/10/2013 (Note: some of the fonts are wonky from translation)

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Current State of World Biodiversity: our impoverished future life support system

  1. 1. • Anthropocene biodiversity crisis • global environmental degradation drivers • deforested Australia • degraded Australia • feral Australia • ecosystem services – what are we losing?
  2. 2. • > 4 million protists • 16600 protozoa • 75000-300000 helminth parasites • 1.5 million fungi • 320000 plants • 4-6 million arthropods • > 6500 amphibians • ~ 10,000 reptiles • > 30000 fishes • 10000 birds • > 5000 mammals • climate change
  3. 3. Bradshawetal.2009FrontEcolEnviron7:79-87 Bradshawetal.2009TrendsEcolEvol24:541-548 Hansenetal.2010PNAS107:8650-8655 Loarieetal.2009GeophysResLett36:L14810 • 1,011,000 km2 lost 2000-2005 (3.1 %; 0.6 %/year) • highest in boreal biome (60 %) • humid tropics next (Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia) • dry tropics next highest (Australia, Brazil, Argentina) • N.A. greatest proportional lost by continent • Nationally, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, DR Congo
  4. 4. u Halpern et al. 2008 Science 319:948-952
  5. 5. Connell et al. (2008) Mar Ecol Prog Ser 360:60-72
  6. 6. Pelagic threshershark Slivertip shark G rey reefsharkTigershark Snaggletooth shark Sicklefin hound shark Taw ny nurse sharkZebra shark Scalloped ham m erhead G reaterham m erhead W hitetip reefshark 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Fished reefs Unfished reefs Shark species Abundance(sharkshr-1 ) Field et al. 2009 Fish & Fisheries 10:323-328
  7. 7. 99 % of ALL species that have ever existed... EXTINCT species lifespan = 1-10 M years Ordovician (490-443 MYA) Devonian (417-354 MYA) Permian (299-250 MYA) Triassic (251-200 MYA) Cretaceous (146-64 MYA) Anthropocene extinction rate 100-10000 background Crutzen 2002 Nature 415:23; Bradshaw & Brook 2009 J Cosmol 2:221-229 ©TiantianZhang,Good50x70.org
  8. 8. • 21 % of all known mammals • 30 % of all known amphibians • 12 % of all known birds • 35 % of conifers & cycads • 17 % of sharks • 27 % of reef-building corals threatened with extinction IUCN RED LIST OF THREATENED SPECIES www.iucnredlist.org
  9. 9. City Development Index www.unchs.org Ecological Footprint www.footprintnetwork.org Environmental Performance Index epi.yale.edu Environmental Sustainability Index sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu Genuine Savings Index worldbank.org Human Development Index hdr.undp.org Living Planet Index www.panda.org Well-Being Index www.well-beingindex.com Environmental Impact Rank Böhringer & Joachim 2007 Ecol Econ 63:1-8
  10. 10. • natural forest loss 2005-1990 /ha • natural habitat conversion human-modified landcover/total landcover • marine captures 1990-2005 fish, whales, seals/EEZ km • fertiliser use NPK/ha arable land • water pollution biochemical oxygen demand/total renewable water resources • carbon emissions forestry, land-use change, fossil fuels/km2 • biodiversity threat Red List threatened birds, mammals, amphibians/listed species Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
  11. 11. Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
  12. 12. Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
  13. 13. POPULATION WEALTH GOVERNANCE Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
  14. 14. Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
  15. 15. per capita prosperity environmentaldamage ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
  16. 16. 1 10 100 0 50 100 150 linear quadratic intercept per capita PPP-adjusted GNI Proportionalenvironmental impactrank* 1 10 100 0 50 100 150 per capita PPP-adjusted GNI Absoluteenvironmental impactrank* -impact+impact-impact+impact poorer wealthier poorer wealthier A B Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
  17. 17. 9 21.5 21.5 40 7 1 forest woodland open woodland shrubland grassland unvegetated pre-European (late 18th Century) settlement Barson et al. 2000 Land Cover Changes in Australia
  18. 18. 5 14 26 37 16 2 forest woodland open woodland 1980s… Barson et al. 2000 Land Cover Changes in Australia i.e., ~ 38 % loss in about 200 years
  19. 19. Barson et al. 2000 Land Cover Changes in Australia
  20. 20. Bradshaw 2012 J Plant Ecol 5:109-120
  21. 21. %remaining A cacia C allitrisC asuarina Eucalyptus lowEucalypttall M allee othershrublandsrain forests 0 20 40 60 80 100 78 % Bradshaw 2012 J Plant Ecol 5:109-120
  22. 22. • legacy of deforestation – some of world’s highest • highest modern mammal extinction rate on Earth • continued mammal declines due to altered fire regimes • meso-predator release • Murray-Darling Basin a mess • rates of changing climate in Southern Hemisphere • 2nd-highest GHG emitters per
  23. 23. Bradshaw et al. 2013 Biol Conserv 161:71-90
  24. 24. intact biological communities and functioning species interactions provide humanity with a host of ‘services’ that support
  25. 25. • ~ 90 % of all wild plant species require animal pollinators for fruit & seed set • ~ 35 % of all human crops require pollination by insects (> 50 % by Apis mellifera) • domestic honey bees declined in USA by 59 % since 1947 & in Europe by 25 % since 1985 • bees (& other pollinators) require more than just crops to complete life cycle • decline mostly from habitat loss, Potts et al. 2010 Trends Ecol Evol 25:345-353
  26. 26. Bradshaw et al. 2007 Glob Change Biol 13:2379-2395 1990-2000 • ~100,000 people killed • 320 million people displaced • total reported damages > US$1151 billion
  27. 27. Carbon Farming Initiative (2011) • financial incentive to land managers & farmers to reduce GHG emissions from BAU or sequester (store) C on land (offset scheme) • Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCU) = 1 t CO2-e = AU$23 (as of 01/07/12) • ACCU rise 2.5 % yr-1 until 2014/2015; set by market thereafter • emissions-avoidance: agricultural, introduced animal & legacy landfill emissions • sequestration-offsets: sequestering C in plants as they grow, increasing soil organic matter, avoided vegetation loss, afforestation, reforestation, revegetation, rangeland restoration and native forest protection • must be additional, no leakage, permanent (unholy trinity) van Oosterzee et al. 2012 Conserv Lett 5:266
  28. 28. •largest potential GHG mitigation using ecology: enhancing woody biomass •most landscape changes likely compatible with biodiversity maintenance/enhancement •but potentially many negative biodiversity outcomes if not done based on sound ecological principles •more research on synergies, economics of trade- offs •future conservation planning needs to incorporate GHG abatement values •future C pricing largest driver of optimal trade-offs Bradshaw et al. 2013 Biol Conserv 161:71-90
  29. 29. ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! SaleSale YambaYamba WaggaWagga PerthPerth AliceAlice SydneySydney MoruyaMoruya HobartHobart DarwinDarwin CedunaCeduna CairnsCairns BroomeBroome BouliaBoulia AlbanyAlbany WoomeraWoomera MilduraMildura ForrestForrest CanberraCanberra BathurstBathurst AmberleyAmberley AdelaideAdelaide MelbourneMelbourne GeraldtonGeraldton CarnarvonCarnarvon TownsvilleTownsville TibooburraTibooburra Mt.GambierMt.Gambier LauncestonLaunceston KalgoorlieKalgoorlie RockhamptonRockhampton Halls.CreekHalls.Creek CharlevilleCharleville Port.HedlandPort.Hedland ! ! 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 -1.0-0.50.00.51.0 Year Yearlymeanmaxdailytempanomaly 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 -1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5 Year Yearlymeanmaxdailytempanomaly 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 -1.0-0.50.00.51.0 Year Yearlymeanmaxdailytempanomaly 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 -1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.0 Year Yearlymeanmaxdailytempanomaly 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 -2-1012 Year Yearlymeanmaxdailytempanomaly 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 -1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5 Year Yearlymeanmaxdailytempanomaly 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 -0.50.00.5 Year Yearlymeanmaxdailytempanomaly 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 -1.00.00.51.01.52.0 Year Yearlymeanmaxdailytempanomaly 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 -1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5 Year Yearlymeanmaxdailytempanomaly 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 -0.50.00.51.01.5 Year Yearlymeanmaxdailytempanomaly ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Text 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2425 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
  30. 30. © Moronail.net
  31. 31. © WWF What now? 1.forests – stop all deforestation now 2.carbon – tax 3.ecosystem services – valuing what we get for free 4.restoration – fix the damage 5.population – no, we’re not
  32. 32. ©TiantianZhang,Good50x70.org corey.bradshaw@adelaide.edu.au www.adelaide.edu.au/directory/corey.bradshaw ConservationBytes.com

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