Presentation to Year 10 students at Scotch College, Adelaide on 16/06/2010

1. EcoMathsThe Numbers of Life (and Death) Professor Corey J. A. Bradshaw THE ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE, University of Adelaide South Australian Research & Development Institute

3. 16600 protozoa

4. 75000-300000helminth parasites

5. 1.5million fungi

6. 320000 plants

7. 4-6 million arthropods

8. > 6500 amphibians

9. > 30000 fishes

10. 10000 birds

13. highest in boreal biome (60 %)

14. humid tropics next (Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia)

15. dry tropics next highest (Australia, Brazil, Argentina)

16. N.A. greatest proportional lost by continent

17. Nationally, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, DR CongoHansen et al. 2010 PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.0912668107 Barson et al. 2000 Land Cover Change in Australia, Bur RurSci

19. 30 % of all known amphibians

20. 12 % of all known birds

21. 35 % of conifers & cycads

22. 17 % of sharks

23. 27 % of reef-building coralsthreatened with extinction

25. life history (reproduction, fecundity, body size, habit)

26. ecological (range size)

27. environment (temperature, precipitation, human density)

28. threat ~ X1 + X2 + X3… (Order/Family)

29. decline ~ …Sodhi et al. 2008 PLoS One 3:e1636 Sodhi et al. (2008) PLoS One 3:e1636

30. Sodhi et al. 2008 PLoS One 3:e1636

31. Sodhi et al. 2008 PLoS One 3:e1636

36.  risk deepwater teleostsField et al. 2009 Advances in Marine Biology 56:275-363

37. Bradshaw et al. 2008 J Ecol 96:869-883

38. Bradshaw et al. 2008 J Ecol 96:869-883

39. invasive species and starfish outbreaks bleaching deforestation, soil erosion, sediment & nutrient loading destructive fishing practices overfishing

40. Mellin et al. 2010 Glob EcolBiogeog19:212

41. 3.0 ± 0.4 3.1 ± 0.4 2.2 ± 0.4 2.0 ± 0.3 1.7 ± 0.3 1.5 ± 0.3 Reef isolation Reef area Mellin et al. In press Ecology

42. Mellin et al. In press Ecology

43. Evil quartet habitat destruction over-exploitation introduced species extinction cascades Diamond 1984 Extinctions Chicago University Press

44. Brook et al. 2008 Trends Ecol Evol25:453-460

45. Evil quintet Evil sextet habitat destruction over-exploitation introduced species extinction cascades climate change synergies Brook et al. 2008 Trends Ecol Evol25:453-460

46. justification to maintain healthy ecosystems is intangible because it seems unrelated to personal well-being © Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

48. land-based ecosystem loss €545 billion by 2010

49. > €14 trillion/year lost by 2050Cost of Policy Inaction (COPI): The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target. European Commission

51. 320 million people displaced

52. total reported damages > US$1151 billion Bradshaw et al. 2007 Glob Change Biol13:2379-2395

54. human population 6.8 B; 9-10 B by 2050

55. competition for resources – famine, wars

56. loss of basic ecosystem services

57. fundamental worldwide shifts in policy required

58. identifying relative country degradation

59. highlight nations needing assistance

62. not comprehensive

63. mix environmental, economic and health data

64. often subjective combinations, weightings, normalisation

65. not available for large sample of nations

68. Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440

69. “I anticipate that the anti-science crowd will be screeching and howling with indignation when they read this one.” “This is such BS, China is WAY worse then the U.S.” “This researcher is a waste ...” “This article is crap.” “Can we really depend on some study when the Chinese could have funded this or maybe some group who was angry at the US and Brazil for whatever? I highly doubt the accuracy of the findings. Looks like the Treehuggers are at it again.” “Shame on you Australia !!! I guess your dying great Barrior[sic] reef is America's fault too!!!!” “here we go again. I'm so frickin' sick of these watermelons (green on the outside, red (communist) on the inside) treehuggers. The only f*^king green I care about is made of paper and folds.”

71. Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440

72. Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440

73. ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE environmental damage per capita prosperity Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440

74. Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440

75. Does a sick environment make sick people? © http://tropicaltoxic.blogspot.com

77. DATA Human health: World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database Environment: - Environmental Combination Index (adapted from Yale Env Performance Index) - Proportional Environmental Impact rank (Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440) - natural habitat conversion proportion (Global Land Cover 2000 dataset) - air/water quality (Yale Environmental Performance Index) - NPK fertiliser use/area arable land (FAOSTAT database) - CO2 emissions (Climate Analysis Indicators tool) Control: - human population size (United Nations Common Database) - purchasing-power parity-adjusted GNI (World Resources Institute) - health expenditure (WHO Statistical Information System)

79. Infant Mortality (male) – 2004 mortality per 1000 live births

80. Life Expectancy at birth (male) – 2004

81. Diarrhoea deaths among children < 5 years (2000)

82. Malaria deaths among children < 5 years (2000)

83. Deaths due to Cardiovascular Disease (2002 age-standardised per 10,000)

86. when a species becomes increasingly rare before extinction, might persist unseen for many years

87. so the time of last sighting often poor estimate of extinction datex x x x x x x x x x x ? ? present past Roberts & Solow 2003 Nature 426:245

89. joint distribution of k same Weibull form regardless of parent distribution

90. estimated extinction time q

91. L: symmetric k×k matrix

92. n: Estimated shape parameter of joint Weibull distribution of kCI q x x x x x x x x x x x present past Roberts & Solow 2003 Nature 426:245

94. assume true ages U independent/uniformly distributed over (b1,g1) where b1 = extinction date

95. PDF of Xj:b1 x x x x x x x x x x x present past Solow et al. 2006 PNAS 103:7351

97. length of period since last sighting informative

98. given previous sighting rate(n/tn), probability of next sighting

99. where p drops below threshold with increasing T-tn, TE inferredTE x x x x x x x x x x x present past McInerny et al. 2006 ConservBiol20:562

101. declining influence of dates within time since last sighting

102. sequentially recalculated TE, weighting by cumulative distance from T1T1 TE x x x x x x x x x x x present past

103. extinctions - constrained P(rand overlap) = 0.09

106. © Moronail.net

107. © WWF

109. Alan Cooper University of Adelaide

110. Camille MellinUniversity of Adelaide/AIMS

111. Mark MeekanAIMS

112. Iain Field Macquarie University

113. XingliGiamPrinceton University

114. Navjot S. SodhiNational University of Singapore

115. Tony McMichael Australian National Universitycorey.bradshaw@adelaide.edu.au www.adelaide.edu.au/directory/corey.bradshaw ConservationBytes.com © Tiantian Zhang, Good50x70.org